Dr. Charles W. Dunn, an author and political scientist, believes that Mike Huckabee has the momentum to take South Carolina’s Republican primary.
Dunn currently serves as dean of the Robertson School of Government at Regent University, and says even though Senator John McCain (R-Arizona) won the New Hampshire GOP primary, he thinks the senator has too much baggage to win in South Carolina — the gateway to the south.
“Remember what happened in 2000. He won big in New Hampshire and lost big in South Carolina and he also made a lot of enemies in South Carolina,” says Dunn. That is why he is predicting a win for Huckabee, despite a poor showing in New Hampshire.
“Huckabee won while losing, so he goes forward with a head of steam into South Carolina and possibly into Michigan,” notes Dunn. “He should win South Carolina, and that’s the gateway to the south. The south has the largest number of electoral votes in the electoral college.
Dunn does not think that Fred Thompson, Mitt Romney, or Rudy Giuliani will be factors in the Palmetto State’s GOP primary later this week.
January 15th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
I don’t see any real analysis here other then “McCain lost in 2000″.
January 15th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
Still, the stars are aligned for Huckabee in SC…
Fred/Mitt will split one component of the alternate vote.
McCain has a ceiling in SC
Rudy won’t be a factor.
With Huckabee rapidly moderating his views, he may be able to wrap SC up.
It will, however, get a lot harder after that I suspect.
January 15th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
HHHHMMMM, very, very low expectations for Mitt, good chance for him to grab 2nd. If he takes Michigan today I think he can over take McCain. I agree that it will be very hard to take down Huckabee in SC.
January 15th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
It’s not simply that McCain lost but also that he has a lot of enemies in SC. This is especially the case given his close relationship with the unpopular Senator Lindsey Graham.
Graham actually has a negative job approval and is McCain’s biggest backer. All he reminds SC of is McCain’s attempt to sneak amnesty through.
McCain has a ceiling of 30% in SC.
January 15th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
Brett –
Good find and good news for Huck. (Note: He doesn’t think Fred will even “be a factor” in SC? A factor?!? Ouch for Fred…)
January 15th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
“Dunn currently serves as dean of the Robertson School of Government at Regent University”
A faith-based prediction or reality?
The polls showed that Huckster took a hit once Thompson exposed his liberal record in the debate.
Romney, Thompson, and Huckster are vying for 2nd. Hopefully the momentum goes to Thompson and Romney and Huckster falls into 4th.
“Huckabee won while losing” I hope he continues to ‘win’ while losing. More 3rd and 4th place finishes would be good for this tax-and-spend soft-on-crime nanny-state class-warfare Huckster populist.
When challenged on tax hikes, Huckster defended the tax hikes by saying “You know what we raised? We raised hope.†That’s what a Clinton would say. Tax hike Mike has an indefensible record, so he falls back on Clintonisms.
http://taxhikemike.org
Here is Huckabee channelling John Edwards, talking about Romney in Mich:“For those of us for whom summer is not a verb, for those of us who didn’t go to fancy boarding schools on the east coast, for those of us who didn’t grow up with a silver spoon, who were lucky to have a spoon — ask those folks and they’ll tell you the economy is not doing well for them,†says Huckabee.
Those comments above are classic DEMOCRAT PLAYBOOK and are worse than the looney stuff Ron Paul says, who at least never gets personal.
Huckabee has run a dirty campaign, and his personal insults to Romney and Thompson are so-o-o-o unpresidential, it is shameful this guy has over 1% support.
January 15th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
“Dunn currently serves as dean of the Robertson School of Government at Regent University”
A faith-based prediction or reality?
The polls showed that Huckster took a hit once Thompson exposed his liberal record in the debate.
Romney, Thompson, and Huckster are vying for 2nd.
“Huckabee won while losing” I hope he continues to ‘win’ while losing. More 3rd and 4th place finishes would be good for this tax-and-spend soft-on-crime nanny-state class-warfare Huckster populist.
When challenged on tax hikes, Huckster defended the tax hikes by saying “You know what we raised? We raised hope.†That’s what a Clinton would say. Tax hike Mike has an indefensible record, so he falls back on Clintonisms.
http://taxhikemike.org
Here is Huckabee channelling John Edwards, talking about Romney in Mich:“For those of us for whom summer is not a verb, for those of us who didn’t go to fancy boarding schools on the east coast, for those of us who didn’t grow up with a silver spoon, who were lucky to have a spoon — ask those folks and they’ll tell you the economy is not doing well for them,†says Huckabee.
Those comments above are classic DEMOCRAT PLAYBOOK and are worse than the looney stuff Ron Paul says, who at least never gets personal.
Huckabee has run a dirty campaign, and his personal insults to Romney and Thompson are so-o-o-o unpresidential, it is shameful this guy has over 1% support.
January 15th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
What Huckabee momentum is he referring to in SC? I can actually be objective about Mike (I am predicting a surpsing finish for him in the high teens in Michigan), but I have seen Huckabee fall in the recent polls in SC. Thompson has been taking him on, and the 527 ads are hurting him as well.
January 15th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
anyone who makes predictions this far out is crazy.
January 15th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
“With Huckabee rapidly moderating his views, he may be able to wrap SC up.”
It seems hte uber-panderig Huckster changes his politics to suit his audience as rapidly as he changes clothes.
In Iowa he was Mr Christian Leader. he goes to NH and morphs into Ron Paul in his speeches (sweep those Arkansas tax hikes under the rug). He goes to Michigan and he is a John Edwards like class warrior, preying on economic fears.
So what is changing in his tune in SC? Is he back on his Christian Leader schtick?
January 15th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
What?
McCain lost South Carolina in 2000 because of three things. 1. He went against a single opponent who had had the entire Republican establishment backing him. 2. That opponent waged the most vicious smear campaigns in modern American history. 3. The time between the New Hampshire primary and South Carolina was too long. McCain was leading Bush a week after NH, but after that momentum no longer mattered.
In 2008, McCain faces a hopelessly fractured field. There is no one opponent to unite around and McCain actually has the best organization in the state. His chief rivals are too busy hammering away at each other instead of the guy who, you know, is actually leading the polls. This is an infinitely better position for McCain to be in than 2000.
I think this just about qualifies for the worst political analysis ever.
January 15th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
The one thing that will be hard to predict is how the SC polls will change after MI. Assuming Romney wins MI, McCain’s lead might shrink a bit. That could give Huckabee an opening but I’m starting to think McCain wins SC as long as he doesn’t lose too badly in MI.
January 15th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
uh, who cares what a political scientist has to say. I could find a political scientist to say the opposite right now surely.
January 15th, 2008 at 12:32 pm
“I am predicting a surpsing finish for him in the high teens in Michigan”
Uh, that’s not a surprise, that’s what the polls say, and it is below what Huckabee was doing a few weeks back.
even over 20% is not out of the question, he’s doing well in western MI.
OTOH, Huckabee is consistently lower now than where he was in Mid-December, his peak.
The Huckaboom is fading away as educated voters learn about his soft-on-crime commutation and pardon spree,
his lousy fiscal record as a tax-and-spend Governor who increased sales taxes and other taxes, and the ethical baggage.
Not to mention the fact that once you get past his quips and one-liners, there is nothing there.
No coherent foreign policy, no coherent tax policy (Fair Tax wont happen; so what else will he do?), not a whit
of real conservativeness in his worldview outside a few hotbutton social issues. An empty populist cupboard is he.
Huckabee is a Hucka-hasbeen and his almost certain failure to win SC (and possibly come in 3rd or 4th) will prove it.
January 15th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
LJ,
I agree. McCain actually did pretty well in SC in 2000 considering the obstacles you just outlined. It was a 53-42 race. So there was certainly no Bush blowout. Not only that, but if you look at where McCain did well on the map,
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html
McCain is in a good position this year. The coastal area of SC is growing fast with moderates who are not Southern natives. This is where McCain did well in 2000 and this region is likely to make up a larger share of the electorate as a whole when comapared to eight years ago. Also, the hard-right conservative vote will be split between Thompson, Huckabee and Romney. Couple that with the fact that Giuliani isn’t really playing here means that the moderates and Independents are in prime position to be scooped up by J-Mac.
At least that’s how this amateur analyst sees it.
January 15th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
#11 – LJ’s analysis is accurate. I’ll throw in that there were 17 days between NH and SC, with nothing in between – this year it’s only 11, with an intervening primary. (MI went after SC in 2000.) It gave GWB a lot of time to recover and establish a narrative.
January 15th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
McCain’s association with amnesty and his relationship with Lindsey Graham limits his appeal in SC.
His close relationship with Lindsey Graham is a big liability given that Graham is so unpopular in SC.
January 15th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
I am looking forward to some of Brett’s future enlightening posts:
“Man on Street Predicts Big Rudy Win in Florida
“My Mom Says I am Very Smart, and Can Do Anything I Set My Mind To”
“Sooner Fan Predicts Big Win in Fiesta Bowl”
“Guy at Club Says Chicks are Totally Diggin’ Him”
January 15th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
This seems more like an opinion of someone who does not like Sen. McCain rather actual political analysis.
January 15th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
19, We McCainiacs don’t even notice that type of opposition anymore.
January 15th, 2008 at 1:15 pm
This guy obviously isn’t looking at the polls or evidence on the ground and is spending too much time in his ivory tower. If he’d get out to the rallies and events for Fred, as well as pay attention to polls, he would realize his opinion has already been invalidated. Fred and Mitt are factors — they combine for 33% of the vote, right now, more than any other candidate. By all accounts on the ground, Fred is surging and presents the greatest threat to McCain’s lead, more so than Huckabee or Romney — though Romney could get a boost today if he wins.
My prediction is Fred 30, McCain 28, Huckabee 17, Romney 14, though I could also see it:
McCain 27, Fred 26, Romney 18, Huckabee 15
Either way Fred stays in the race and does quite well. too much evidence both real and anecdotal to aruge otherwise.
January 15th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
On #21. That’s very interesting. Fred has surged in the Ras poll and maybe we’ll see more evidence on his surge later on. I think if Fred won SC he would get a big boast. I think most people like Fred, and the main thing holding him back is the laziness factor and also electability. Lazy and nonelectable people tend not to win competitive primaries.
January 15th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
Can fred really pull off a SC win? I would love to see it, I just havent seen much evidence for it. What is the evidence on the ground that hes gaining steam?
January 15th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
C’mon Thompson.
South Carolina is conservative enough that I think Thompson could win the thing and Romney could still have a decent showing. Do it, Fred!
January 15th, 2008 at 2:42 pm
23 — Several things:
1. Surge in poll from 12 to 16 in just three days. Now in statistical tie for 2nd and only 12 points back of McCain for first.
2. Huge crowds on the ground, overflow — several hundred at many stops, with lines of people waiting outside to hear and see Fred.
3. I’m aware that the clemson university pollster says he expects a Fred surge based on his read on the ground.
4. Since thursday’s debate, Fred has raised $600,000 in online donations. So that’s about $150,0000 a day! that is significant. Also, they’ve had 12,500 people sign up since Jan. 4, about 3/4 of which occurred since the debate.
5. 200 volunteers have flown in from OUTSIDE the state of South Carolina helping Fred organize and get the vote out.
6. He is getting a great deal of local press coverage — I’ve seen clips and they are quite positive.
7. South Carolina RTL and National RTL are doing mailings and ads in the state on behalf of Fred. That will help create separation for voters between Fred, Huck, and Mitt.
8. Huckabee is getting hit hard by the 527 ad and the aftermath of the debate, as well as his childish response to Fred’s criticism. he’s losing support left and right. To be honest, I think Fred sees Romney’s new ads and McCain as bigger threats now. This professor is just too simpleton to say Huck will win. Huck is headed south polling wise and in a big hurry.
It is very much the feeling I had for McCain going into New Hampshire. He wasn’t quite overtaking Roney in the polls but he was clearly the one with momentum and that proved itself on election night. Fred putting his entire campaign staff in SC will make a difference.
I predict he either wins or comes in a very close second to McCain. I’m also readjusting my thinkign — I think Ronney ends up 3rd and huckabee 4th. That would end Huckabee for good and I think you’d see a lot of romney support drift to Fred in Florida.
January 15th, 2008 at 3:23 pm
……..
January 15th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
#25 – we can only hope. huckabees metamucil comment was classic huckabee: ignore the criticism of substance, and respond with a cute one liner. what a tool.
January 15th, 2008 at 5:39 pm
I can’t think of anyone else Chuck Dunn would endorse considering his very very Bob Jones University Baptist leanings. Dunn is an old war-horse, and knows quite a bit about the SC political scene, but – he can be wrong.
SJ Reidhead
The Pink Flamingo