From Ambinder:
It was one of Mitt Romney’s largest events in New Hampshire. 800 residents packed into a middle school here in this wealthy, mostly Republican suburb, with many more turned away. Cars were parked a half a mile down the road.
Read the rest, it’s a good read.
I will make no predictions, but I can say that I have a friend in the NH Romney office who reports that call after call consists McCain leaners jumping ship to Mitt. Also, if you take out the polls that covered Friday, you have Mitt only behind by 2% and there hasn’t been a poll since last night’s debate. The momentum is now in Mitt’s court, and tomorrow we will see where it lands.
No predictions though, it’s anyone’s game tomorrow.
January 7th, 2008 at 11:12 pm
Did anyone make calls for Mitt today?
January 7th, 2008 at 11:13 pm
Erik,
That’s what I am referring to.
January 7th, 2008 at 11:16 pm
Jason what is your email address? I would like to ask you something.
January 7th, 2008 at 11:16 pm
McCain leaners? Really? Were they Independents or Republicans?
Since you are calling from a list then my guess they are declared Republicans. Not sure winning the Republican will do you much is there is a huge turnout of Independents even though a majority them will break to Obama.
Whatever the case, here’s to Mitt losing very badly!
January 7th, 2008 at 11:19 pm
jasonpbonham at gmail dot com
January 7th, 2008 at 11:19 pm
nowandlater,
No idea, but jsut because its from a list does not mean it’s solely Repubs. Voter Vault consists of anyone who has voted in a recent republican primary.
January 7th, 2008 at 11:19 pm
anyone posted the latest ARG poll yet?
January 7, 2008 – New Hampshire Presidential Preferences
ARG Poll
McCain 31
Romney 24
Huckabee 14
Guiliani 13
John McCain leads Mitt Romney among men 25% to 23%, with 19% for Rudy Giuliani, and McCain leads Romney 38% to 26% among women, with 16% for Huckabee. McCain leads Romney 30% to 25% among Republicans and 34% to 21% among undeclared (independent) voters, with 19% for Huckabee. Both McCain and Romney have lost support to Giuliani, Huckabee, and Paul.
Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican primary voters living in New Hampshire (440 Republicans and 160 undeclared (independent) voters).
Sample Dates: January 6-7, 2008
Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.
http://americanresearchgroup.com/
January 7th, 2008 at 11:19 pm
I made calls. I made about 5 around 8pm EST and then the system logged me out and said they had made all the calls that they could. One of the guys was going to vote for Thompson and had Mitt a very close 2nd, but after my message, he said that he still hadn’t ruled out voting for Mitt because he didn’t want McCain to be the guy. The other four I called all were for Romney, and they all committed to shopwing up at the polls tomorrow.
January 7th, 2008 at 11:21 pm
last one had McCain up 35 to 27. Going in Mitt’s direction.
January 7th, 2008 at 11:21 pm
If ARG has it narrowing, then it must really be happening. ARG has been a shill for McCain from day one.
January 7th, 2008 at 11:22 pm
Although I expect McCain to win NH, I doubt that Mitt will lose “badly”. It’s going to be tight.
Jason we heard of similar anecdotes coming out of Iowa and even though Romney outperformed what they expected, he still lost to the overwhelming evang/bagain vote. Until I see Mitt win it’s hard to believe these stories. Although they might be true, the indie vote might the NH version of the evangelicals and Mitt still loses, though a much smaller margin.
We’ll see tomorrow.
January 7th, 2008 at 11:23 pm
McCain has Paul and Obama competing for his vote, and Romney actually get s a decent amout of the indie votes in New Hampshire.
January 7th, 2008 at 11:24 pm
yeah, ARG is crap, but it has McCain’s lead cut in half in 3 days.
January 7th, 2008 at 11:25 pm
Ok, so if you are a Mitt backer and you are optimistic, then it is the Republican friendly undecideds which are breaking for Mitt. That would be a bad sign for McCain.
If you a McCain backer, then you are just hitting the core Republicans and that you are not seeing the Independents who may come out in record numbers and vote for McCain. Even though 30% of Idependents may vote for McCain, a record number of them would be the equivalent of 40% in a normal cycle.
I am not sure what is the case this year and I am hopeful that it is the later.
January 7th, 2008 at 11:25 pm
I predicted that Romney wins by 3 points tomorrow, and I’m sticking with that. I could be wrong, but based on the data I’ve seen, I’d guess that maybe as many as half of the eventual GOP primary voters watched the Sunday debate. Based on that and anecdotal evidence, I think tomorrow will be considerably more pro-Romney then RCP or Intrade suggest.
January 7th, 2008 at 11:26 pm
Jack,
I agree 100%. I was very bullish with Iowa, which was wrong. But, there was no polls that had such a tightening, and no such info on the calls- at least that I can recall. There were no meetings going crazy like this, the largest meeting I attended, in a caucus that hd Mitt win by huge amounts had about 200 people.
So I think things look better, but I am more reserved, I learned the had way in IA.
January 7th, 2008 at 11:33 pm
I think the momentum has been turning in Mitt’s favor and no poll will completely capture it. If Mitt truly does have a GOTV program in place for tomorrow, it could make a huge difference. I also think that people see that Mccain could not really compete with Obama. He would be a sitting duck. I should also note that I do not quite buy the “Hillary is dead” talk yet. Iowa and New Hampshire are naturally good places for Obama. I think Michigan could revive Hillary.
January 7th, 2008 at 11:34 pm
I think the momentum has been turning in Mitt’s favor and no poll will completely capture it. If Mitt truly does have a GOTV program in place for tomorrow, it could make a huge difference. I also think that people see that Mccain could not really compete with Obama. He would be a sitting duck. I should also note that I do not quite buy the “Hillary is dead” talk yet. Iowa and New Hampshire are naturally good places for Obama. She sure could have used Michigan…
January 7th, 2008 at 11:34 pm
I’m a little more skeptical. I want to believe…but the polls still seem to resemble Iowa. The weekend before the voting day the polls were tightening then all of sudden on Monday and Tues polls came out showing Huck up 5-7 points. Also people said people were makin calls in Iowa like crazy–someone said 2,500 volunteers were comitted to getting out 20 people out to vote giving Romney 50,000 votes!
I’m also worried about a high indie turnout. Most will go for Obama, but there’s goin to be a overall high turnout of indies imo b/c the race is so tight and provocative.
I hate to be pessimistic but those are my gut feelings. I hope Mitt can pull it out somehow.
January 7th, 2008 at 11:35 pm
Matthew, I also predicted a 3% win for Romney. I see it 34% to 31%. I think the early votes could make a 1-2% shift.
January 7th, 2008 at 11:39 pm
Is it too late to buy Intrade for Romney in NH?
January 7th, 2008 at 11:42 pm
I don’t even by raffle tickets Jeff.
January 7th, 2008 at 11:45 pm
hmmm, I love this site, I am addicted to it. But it is really the only site that get’s my hopes up. It worries me. I keep being disappointed. (Don’t worry I am still loyal)
January 7th, 2008 at 11:47 pm
Tarheeel,
I say be pessimistic. It’s probably for the better.
January 7th, 2008 at 11:47 pm
Jeff, no, it trades all day tomorrow, too.
January 7th, 2008 at 11:49 pm
The problem is that it takes a couple days to wire money to Intrade.
Thanks to SoCons who effectively shut down Neteller in fall of 2006 with the anti-online gambling act.
January 7th, 2008 at 11:50 pm
Jeff, I signed up on Intrade to see if I could make a quick buck earlier today… then chickened out when it asked for Credit Card info… sigh…
January 7th, 2008 at 11:59 pm
Swint,
You and Me….Loyal I mean….
January 7th, 2008 at 11:59 pm
PnGrata, they won’t take credit cards from U.S. citizens.
January 8th, 2008 at 12:19 am
Hunter!
January 8th, 2008 at 12:20 am
Hey, y’all, don’t spend too much time trying to talk yourself into a Mitt win. That makes zero difference to the outcome and can make the actual results too painful.
A gentleman has to know when to cultivate a little detachment.
January 8th, 2008 at 12:22 am
I would feel a lot better about Mitt’s chances in light of your observations had you not had the exact same optimism in Iowa. Mitt is in T-R-O-U-B-L-E
January 8th, 2008 at 12:26 am
I made calls for Mitt from home in NH for about an hour this afternoon. 1 guy said he would vote for McCain, 7-8 spouses said they and their spouse were voting for Mitt, a couple said they were going with Obama, and
then there were a number of undecideds. A number of people also were not home, or didn’t give me a chance to say what I was doing, but talking to the Romney supporters they seemed really peppy, and pretty sure that Romney would beat McCain, or at least were really hoping he would. McCain doesn’t have as much support as he did in 2000, which was before the Amnesty bill, McCain-Feingold, and voting agaisnt the Bush tax cuts twice. I think it’ll be close, but i think it’s Romney by 2-3 points (no bias; wink, wink).
January 8th, 2008 at 12:27 am
I think it will be close either way. i predict a tie pretty much. it will be a real feat to come close for romney, or a turnaround at the least given mccain was opening up quite a lead before iowa and after. mitt managed to turn it around.
average the last four newest polls and mccain’s lead is diminishing just over the fourt poll of the previous day.
i still think mccain wins, but it will be closer than it was in iowa which is what mitt needs.
January 8th, 2008 at 12:43 am
One thing we all have to recognize, there simply is no equivalent to the Iowa Evangelical Voter in NH. No one saw that train coming, despite the accuracy of some predictions.
January 8th, 2008 at 1:02 am
Too little, too late. McCain just won the first primary by double Romney’s numbers in a town in Northern NH. Obama shutout Hillary.
Mitt can go back to selling his used cars. He can’t buy enough votes in New Hampshire. These voters want a change for the better, not for the worse… http://www.politicalpressure.wordpress.com
January 8th, 2008 at 1:05 am
The ind voters could be the equivalent
January 8th, 2008 at 1:05 am
It looks like “if” Romney loses he will have to drop out because he has the momentum here and his expectations are SKY HIGH. Jason works for the Romney camp and they and his supporters on here are basically assuring a victory (otherwise he would have kept his mouth shut and not posted this ridiculous blog). So if the Mitten loses he will most certainly be devastated and have to drop out of the race…
January 8th, 2008 at 1:12 am
The good news? Romney’s get out the vote mechanism was actually successful in Iowa. Evangelical vote was expected to be at 40%. What we saw was that the evangelicals made up 60% of the electorate on that day. They poured out of the aisles for Huckabee. And yet, Romney finished with the exact same percentage of voters as he had polled at–about 25%. In other words, he met the Huckabee surge but couldn’t overcome it.
In no way, form, or fashion does McCain garner the type of enthusiasm have in Iowa. He probably has a better GOTV than Huckabee, but he lacks raw enthusiasm.
I’m optimistic about Mitt’s chances tomorrow. His performance in the debates has been inspiring, and I think he won both of them. That seems to be the opinions of the pundits and the people. It all comes down to Romney’s GOTV and what independents do.
January 8th, 2008 at 1:16 am
My wife informed me that McCain won the first ballot with twice the votes of Romney and 100% turnout.
http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/01/08/mccain-obama-win-first-ballots-in-dixville-notch-nh/
McCain with 4 votes, Mitt Romney with 2 votes, Rudy Giuliani with 1 vote. Those were the only Republican votes cast.
January 8th, 2008 at 1:18 am
I’m a volunteer for Romney in FL and made about 100 calls to FL Republican voters from home today. The results were very encouraging compared to the past month. I’ve been doing this for a couple months and honestly, it has been pretty discouraging up until today. I know this is not the same as scientific polling, but for whatever it’s worth, things sure seemed positive today. We’ll see.
January 8th, 2008 at 1:22 am
Romney’s camp was only expecting 1 vote in Dixville, so they actually exceded expectations by twice what was expected.
January 8th, 2008 at 1:33 am
I’m a Utah volunteer for Mitt and made 25 calls today after work. The results were also very encouraging, I must say. Either the McCain supporters weren’t talking, or they didn’t exist. One person said he was supporting Ron Paul. Several others were undecided. About ten were Mitt Romney supporters and the rest I left messages or was unable to talk to them (hangups).
January 8th, 2008 at 1:35 am
LaJ, you’re back. I thought you had gone astray. Well, tomorrow will be an interesting ride. If the voters of NH are really looking for change, I think Mitt will win. There does seem to be some momentum in his favor. Even the NH newpapers have toned down their anti-Mitt rhetoric this past week. I think it’s going to be close. Everyone is discounting Mitt’s GOTV and ground game because he lost in Iowa. However, I do not think it was a failure. He did get 30,000 people out to vote for him – that was his goal. I take solace in noting that the polls have all shown Mitt’s support to be stronger than that of McCain. I think Mitt has a good chance.
January 8th, 2008 at 1:36 am
According to carl camreon dixville notch is almost always wrong.
January 8th, 2008 at 1:40 am
It has 12 indie voters and only 3 repubs – it’s not going th be representative.
January 8th, 2008 at 1:45 am
Greg #8 – I made 36 calls tonight and they call connected. 29 of them were all positively voting for McCain. The other 7 were voting for Romney until their used cars broke down (which Mitt sold to them). Oh and I got 3 voicemails so I left a message telling them to support Thompson or McCain… or at least ANYBODY but Romney.
Then I checked my voicemail. I had a message from Western Watts telling me how awful Mormons were. It turned out to be a push poll by the Romney camp. Weird huh?
http://www.politicalpressure.wordpress.com
January 8th, 2008 at 5:05 am
I made calls. I had one lady tell me it was a toss up between Romney and Huckabee. I read some one else mentioning a bunch of people torn between those two. That has me scratching my head. They are so different in policy and governing styles, it has to be a personality thing?
January 8th, 2008 at 5:12 am
I have to figure the double debates on the weekend helped Romney. His performance was good in both, and I hope that anyone who was planning to vote Republican would set aside time to watch at least one.
January 8th, 2008 at 7:49 am
I’ve been making calls since last Sunday and going door-to-door. McCain has a built-in base that we can’t touch, but there are tons of callers that just don’t know his position and are willing to vote for him based on his warhero status alone. We made over 100,000 calls last night at the Manchester office before Mitt arrived to thank us. It was electric stuff.
January 8th, 2008 at 10:37 am
It looks like Iowa was Huckabee’s grass-roots coming-out party and New Hampshire is Romney’s grass-roots coming-out party. I work in Mass. and all the buzz at work is about Romney: conservatives at my work are going up to NH to volunteer and the libs at my work are rolling their eyes.
January 8th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
LAJ–
Do you expect to be taken seriously? Since your posts contain a verifiable lie (the childish used car salesman jokes) no thinking person will consider the rest of your post to be worthwhile.
And here is the lesson for voters, people are not dishonest in only one area of their lives. Men who cheat on their wives will cheat on the American people.
Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Fred Thompson were all unfaithful to their first wives and the mother of their children.
Character matters and LaJ has shown he or she has none.
January 8th, 2008 at 3:41 pm
Drudge says Dems have run out of ballots all over the place. A record turnout for the Democratic Primary. Bad news for McCain. Looks like Obama is wiping the floor with him among Independents! Romney predicted a win. He didn’t do this in Iowa. I’ve no reason to doubt him. His predictions are right on. Remember, this is a data driven guy.