From Marc Ambinder at The Atlantic:
Don’t count out a surprisingly strong showing by Mitt Romney on Tuesday.
For one thing, the polls are very tight; there was no real post-Iowa bounce for John McCain; he was rising before Iowa and seems to have a ceiling at about 35%.)
Romney seems liberated on the trail — like a hose unbent. He is full of energy; his television ads are excellent; his debate performance last night was stellar.
He has spent more than $10M securing the approval of conservative Republicans, has held more than 40 town hall meetings in the state, has traveled here more than any candidate, is from a neighboring state, has a natural base here.
There are no alternative conservative choices with a shot at winning the nomination.
A lot of voters in Concord this morning told me they were choosing between Romney and Huckabee — and this was at a McCain event.
And while there are many vestiges of the old McCain, he is more negative, has more baggage,
is still unacceptable on immigration, and was on the air late.
I am not giving out predictions tonight, but Romney has a 40% chance tomorrow. He is coming off a strong showing in both debates, a rise in the polls (poll beginning on 1/5 now have McCain with only a 2% lead- with independents polled by 30%) and strong ground game that kept hi up in Iowa despite the record Evangelical/Born again turnout.
Romney just might pull NH off still.
January 7th, 2008 at 6:15 pm
a win is a win at this point for mitt. there is no asterick on a NH win if he gets it. i would give him more like 33%
January 7th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
This primary is different then the caucus, Romney will have time and money to GOTV.
My prediction is McCain by 4, Romney getting most of his support from REAL conservatives.
Then on the Michigan
I’ll say it again though; delegates, delegates, delegates…Romney’s gottem.
January 7th, 2008 at 6:23 pm
By how much did McCain win NH in 2000? 19 points?
January 7th, 2008 at 6:27 pm
Best to downplay expectations if you’re a Rombot…
January 7th, 2008 at 6:32 pm
On #3. Funny thing is the closest poll was rasmussen (i think, not very sure about this) which predicted he’d win by 12.
January 7th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
Ambinder has been refreshingly intelligent throughout this entire process. I think Mitt will pull it off, but it isn’t a done deal by any stretch of the imagination. I like the fact that the “kids poll,” which has always been right, shows Mitt winning easily.
January 7th, 2008 at 6:35 pm
Jason, sorry about hijacking your post, but I want to mention this.
According to the news, the moderates from both sides, Democratic and Republican, just had a summit in Okahoma which Bloomberg also attended. They claimed that none of the candidates on either side will be those who can get our government move on with tough solutions. This article brought to my mind two thoughts I want to throw in here.
1) Bloomberg running on ticket with Obama? Obama has been sounding the agenda of change, and he has been reaching out to everyone. His only problem is his lack of experience, which Bloomberg can cover very well. What do any one of you think of this?
2) If the moderates go ahead with independent party, McCain is also the beloved representative of the moderate for many scenarios. What do you think of the possibility of Bloomberg/McCain ticket for a 3rd party? This will give Bloomberg a bit more tint of being “conservative”. As Boren, a former senator and current president of Oklahamo’s university, said:
He believes that it needs a time-out to get it “derailed by money, special interests and political extremism back on track.” This sounds like something McCain would go for, especially if he does lose the nomination.
January 7th, 2008 at 6:38 pm
Now, back to this post, McCain has done very well (or his beloved media did) in spinning how he finished “third” place in Iowa, when we know he was 300 votes behind of Fred. I think he will somehow spin that he has overwhelmedly won the NH, regardless of the actual results. Perhaps Mitt wins, but it will look like McCain actually wins it. Perhaps Mitt finishes a close second, but it will look like McCain has whipped Mitt much worst than he did with the last place finisher. I won’t give too much hope to the media. But still, a win for Mitt will keep his head above water for a while longer!
January 7th, 2008 at 6:47 pm
Dave,
What the heck is the “kids poll”?
January 7th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
Never mind my comment about Bloomberg here. It fits better under today’s SurveyUSA SC Polls post. If you want to jump in, go there!
January 7th, 2008 at 6:55 pm
Matt – the “kids poll” is a poll of children in grades K-12, where they fill out mock ballots and then cast them like a real election. At least according to Fox, that poll has never been wrong – on either side, and it has Obama and Romney winnning the state.
January 7th, 2008 at 7:12 pm
Lets have the kids vote then…clearly then can see that McCain is scary..
hahahaha.
January 7th, 2008 at 7:17 pm
12. jaaron “hahahaha”
Was that supposed to be a McCain laugh? As in, a “let me smile while I take out this dagger I just shoved between your shoulder blades” sort of laugh?
January 7th, 2008 at 7:18 pm
9,
There’s some sort of school kids poll that was done today in NH. Traditionally, it has called the winner based upon what kids hear their parents are talking about. Romney beat McCain by a large margin.
January 7th, 2008 at 7:18 pm
Oh man, I remember doing something like that here in NJ back in 96. No idea who I voted for though. My mom went Dole and my dad went Clinton, so not sure I would have been influenced at home.
January 7th, 2008 at 7:21 pm
I remember doing it as a kid in ’92 and voting for Perot.
What a foolish, foolish child I was…
January 7th, 2008 at 7:33 pm
Hey guys, who do you think the Rudy camp would like to see win tomorrow in NH? Mitt would look bad if he lost both Iowa and NH. However, a McCain win would give him the big a shot in the arm. Also, if rudy get more than 10% I believe he picks up some delegates.
January 7th, 2008 at 7:50 pm
If Mittens gets within 5 then wins Michigan it’s back to game on!