Longtime R4’08 commenter MetroRepublican notes this very important post that ranks the most to least reliable New Hampshire polls through according to other pollsters (both media and independent campaigns). I was surprised to see that ABC/Washington Post came in first, well ahead of the CNN/WMUR poll. At the same time, no one should be surprised that Zogby came in dead last.
January 6th, 2008 at 5:24 pm
Asking pollsters how they feel about themselves and their colleagues is probably the worst way to conduct a viable survey about the reliability of pollsters.
January 6th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
http://nh.craigslist.org/pol/530516503.html
Mitt is trying to buy it! His grassroots is ASTROTURF!!!
January 6th, 2008 at 5:41 pm
LaJ,
LOL. That’s incredible!
January 6th, 2008 at 5:49 pm
Thanks, LJ.
Factoring in the 2nd question, it would seem that CNN/WMUR is regarded as more authoritative that ABC/WaPo.
January 6th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
As I stated previous, I think Mitts support is solidly around 30% or so. Its been a little higher and a little lower at times, but has consistantly been right there. The question will be how many early votes did Mitt capture pre Christmas day when he was ahead by 16%+ and McCain was in 3rd. I would suspect that team Mitt got their groundtroops from all over NH and MA out and got them to vote early. I think that he is only slightly behind right now among GOP voters.
Also stated previous, it was reported that 62% of registered independants and unaffiliated voters will vote for a Dem. Obama will win a plurality of those, with Hillary and Edwards getting some too. Among the 38% remaining who vote in the GOP race, Ron Paul should get the most I think, followed closely by McCain, Romney, Rudy, and Huck. I dont see independants flooding the ballot boxes this time to overcome a solid but narrow lead by Romney among the GOP.
January 6th, 2008 at 5:56 pm
On #2. WOWSERS!!!!!
January 6th, 2008 at 6:00 pm
Give me a break
January 6th, 2008 at 6:00 pm
Guys, that craigslist crap is not real.
January 6th, 2008 at 6:01 pm
I think RCP is the most accurate way to track this. I would throw out the ARG which has been garbage most of the year, but it seems to be an indicater of where the race really is.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/new_hampshire-primary.html
Right now, McCain has a slight advantage. The support has come on for him over the last month, which could be good or bad. Good because he has the momentum, or bad because his support is soft and could go elsewhere by election day. Tuesday we will see.
January 6th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
Ryan, facts have never stopped them from getting a laugh or making a point at Mitts expense. Why should it now.
January 6th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
#5 – Did Romney buy those earlier supporters like this: http://nh.craigslist.org/pol/530516503.html
January 6th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
Hahahaha you guys are taking the Craigslist ad seriously. That’s funnier than the ad!
January 6th, 2008 at 6:05 pm
Wouldn’t a study of actual polling accuracy be more significant than a poll of what pollsters think of themselves? Or am I missing something here? What’s the point of this?
January 6th, 2008 at 6:06 pm
LaJ. . . You do know that it’s a fake ad, don’t you?
January 6th, 2008 at 6:08 pm
you cannot buy support. that whole notion is ridiculous. you buy media presence and a groundgame that helps get the most important thing out there to the people: the candidate.
without a good candidate on such a large-scale national level, campaigns will sink.
January 6th, 2008 at 6:10 pm
Here is another one from Iowa when he paid for people to come to his straw poll – http://youtube.com/watch?v=htKGhe_BGV4
It is clear now that he paid for people there to be his fake grassroots because he got a smaller % of the vote in January than he did in August… unreal.
January 6th, 2008 at 6:15 pm
LaJ,
I thought that that faux-Craigslist site was amusing the first time I saw it, but there’s no reason to spam the site with it.
January 6th, 2008 at 6:45 pm
The McCain Way:
Prior To The 2000 Primary, Voters In Michigan Began Receiving Pre-Recorded Phone Calls Criticizing Then-Gov. Bush And Portraying Him As Being Anti-Catholic. “Adrienne Karns, an accountant from Birmingham, Mich., said in an interview that she received a recorded call telling her Catholics should vote for McCain. She said she did not believe the call was endorsed by McCain’s campaign, and instead was sponsored by an outside group. ‘It started off saying it was a “Catholic voters†alert,’ Karns said, noting the call mentioned Bush’s appearance at Bob Jones University in South Carolina and school’s perception as being anti-Catholic. ‘It said McCain had not been to the university, and he was a friend of all Catholics, and all Catholics should vote for John McCain,’ she said. Karns said she was voting for Bush and that the call would not change her mind.†(David Espo, “Religious Broadcaster Attacks McCain Official As ‘Vicious Bigot,’†The Associated Press, 2/21/00)
January 6th, 2008 at 7:02 pm
I cannot believe that either Mac or Huck will be the nominee. Rudy, maybe, Freddy, maybe, Romney, maybe. Does anyone have a credible scenario for me being wrong here?
January 6th, 2008 at 7:23 pm
tyler, you are right about that. Huck and McCain are unexectable options to too many people. Romney will fight on through Florida and probably super Tuesday. If he loses as some suggest, most of his support (including me) will likely fall to Rudy. McCain and Huck have done enough damage with their petty personal attacks that they will likely never draw Romney fans their way in the end. I think it will hurt McCain too if he loses and runs for reelection in Arizona. Mormons WILL NOT support him in his state (where there are nearly 400,000).
Dont tell LJ this please, I like that he thinks McCain still has a chance.
The worst part of Romney losing is that i would support the same person as metro and TLG. Ughhh!
January 6th, 2008 at 7:37 pm
Tyler,
Aside from Mitt, Huck and McCain are the only possible nominees. They both have scenarios that can lead to the nomination. There is no plausible scenario that leads to the nomination of either Fred or Rudy. If McCain wins New Hampshire, he has credibility and increased fund-raising to go along with his newspaper endorsements in Michigan. That can make him the anti-Huck, leading to a 2-man race. Huck, on the other hand, has already won Iowa and has to be the prohibitive favorite to win South Carolina. Rudy hasn’t won anywhere, his fundraising has dried up, and he will be footnote in the history of presidential campaigns by the time Florida rolls around. Fred’s strongest states will now go to Huckabee instead. If Mitt can’t stop these guys, either McCain or Huck will be the nominee.
January 6th, 2008 at 7:51 pm
Dave, you are wrong there. If Mitt stumbles, and he isnt out of it yet. Rudy will pick up lots of his support. He is in the mix now, and to pick up a significant number of us Mitt supporters who COMPLETELY DISLIKE HUCK AND MCCAIN should be what he needs. I think that regardless of what happens, mitt will fight to super Tuesday. There he will win UT, ID, maybe MA, and some CA districts. He will win some, as will Rudy. McCain and Huck might well win some too depending on what happens leading up to it. It very early still. Who knows.
But one thing is for sure, Mccain and Huck will likely never, EVER earn the support of Romney or his followers. EVER!!!!
January 6th, 2008 at 7:52 pm
I might well vote Obama over Huck or Mccain, seriously!