If he doesn’t have a strong finish there. If he does, it’s likely that he’ll endorse John McCain. This is something that I’ve been hearing on my side for the past month or so. One thing to remember is that McCain and Thompson remain good friends and Thompson was the co-chairman of McCain’s 2000 Presidential run.
Several Republican officials close to Fred Thompson’s presidential campaign said they expect the candidate will drop out of the race within days if he finishes poorly in Thursday’s Iowa caucus.
Thompson’s campaign, which last spring and summer was generating fevered anticipation in the media and with some Republican activists, has never ignited nationally, and there are no signs of a late spark happening here in Iowa, where even a third-place finish is far from assured.
This reality-combined with a fundraising drought-left well-connected friends and advisers of Thompson Wednesday evening predicting that he will pull the plug on hype and hope before the Jan. 8 New Hampshire primary.
Thompson’s departure could shake up the race more than his continued presence. Friends and advisers said they have long considered it likely that if the lobbyist-actor is forced from the race he would endorse John McCain his former Senate colleague who lately has been staging a political revival in New Hampshire.
“Without a solid third-place finish, there’s no point in going on,” a Thompson adviser said Wednesday. “It was an honorable race, and he turned out to be a good candidate. The moment had just passed.”
A Thompson campaign source said there is “a strong likelihood” that if Thompson comes in a distant third in Iowa, with less than 15 percent of the vote, he would drop out soon-most likely before this weekend’s New Hampshire presidential debates. …
His war chest was so depleted that he was unable to advertise on television after Christmas, and was only able to back on the air in Iowa by blasting a stream of e-mails pleading for contributions.
Friends and advisers emphasized that no deal has been cut to have Thompson endorse McCain. But they note that there would be a logic to doing so soon, in order to help a friend and colleague at a moment when he needs it most. In turn, Thompson might be named attorney general in a McCain administration. …
But other advisers to Thompson described his campaign as “broke” and said that without a shot of momentum from Iowa, continuing the campaign would be pointless and impractical.
January 3rd, 2008 at 12:48 am
Well, speculation like this can’t be helping Thompson’s GOTV efforts.
January 3rd, 2008 at 12:49 am
Thompson’s story is very unfortunate. A lot of the candidates had to make some major mistakes to leave the door open for Romney. I’ll list the choke artists of Republican Primaries in order.
1 – Giuliani totally blew it, he tried a brand-new strategy and it didn’t work, now he looks like he is 2nd teir, Florida voters may not even consider 2nd teir candidates as an option. Too bad Giuliani’s campaign advisors aren’t as good as Giuliani’s debate performances were (except for a couple). He couldn’t even ride his celebrity status and explain his positions on abortion to the people of Iowa – his position on abortion is bearable but Iowa never figured it out. He blew it, over and over.
2 – Huckabee – should have done his homework on terrorism and the middle-east, the guy squandered his advantage and “Huck-a-boost†by not preparing for the heat. Then following it up with flip-flopping on ads and his “positive campaign†who’s the flipper here? Oh, might I ad that he starts to push the raising of money too late? He’s such a likeable guy, yet he peaks late in the year? I have to blame him to some extent for not capitalizing on 2nd place at the straw poll. His Q3 number of 1 million killed him, hands down.
3 – McCain – He had a free ride to the presidency, but what does he do? He comes up with anti-conservative bills that he is able to push through. He had it made – but he stinking blew it. Then he couldn’t just chill and save his money for a while, he had to squander it and fire a ton of people to stay afloat, and people started thinking that if he couldn’t even manage his own campaign money, how would he do with the federal budget? Choke artist anyone? Now he reduces himself to putting out ads to put down Romney when he shouldn’t have had to worry about him in the first place. He failed.
4 – Thompson – He had this wonderful image to millions without even being in the race, and what does he do with it? Blows it! He gets in late and takes on the initial appearance of being old and lazy, the media tags him. Millions of his own supporters wanted him to enter the race right away, but what does he do? Wait! He gets millions and millions of supporters and waits! Total mistake. Then he delays taking decisions on things and backs it up with not going to his own party at the NH debate, and goes for Leno instead. Can’t anyone manage around here? Now, Thompson is up to speed, if he would have started in February, he would have probably had this one in the bag. He totally blew it. He just asked to be tagged as lazy and indecisive.
5 – Newt Gingrich – totally blew the thing, he would have killed everyone because they did so awful. Newt had a lot going for him, but couldn’t help out his party because he was interested in other things. He may have indirectly endorsed Huck, but he really endorsed Romney, since he said he needed money to compete with Romney in order to win. People loved Newt and so did I, but he choked, and now we have this mess.
So, some may ask, how does a Massachusetts Governor that is Mormon win the nomination or become a front runner? How does someone with so many strikes against him actually pull this all off? It’s simple, everyone else failed and Romney worked his rump off. He actually gets something done while everyone is off in rookie camp trying to figure out how to become prepared for the presidency or at least be a good CEO of their campaign. The media attacks Romney from day one, he gets labled as a flipper, millions of people get fed phoney anti-mormon garbage, heck, even a snowman goes after Romney, and look, look at this, the Mormon Massachusetts Flipper wins Iowa? Well, serves every candidate right, they deserved to lose, and Romney deserved to win because he defines the word “work†better than any man I know. Those are the last words I leave before the caucus, and you know who I am voting for!
January 3rd, 2008 at 12:49 am
It’s going to look a little silly if Thompson comes in 3rd, McCain comes in 4th, and Thompson endorses McCain before the dust settles from Iowa.
Maybe Fred should take a McLoan to keep his campaign afloat?
January 3rd, 2008 at 12:51 am
Nooooooooooooooooooo
January 3rd, 2008 at 12:51 am
…sorry to all. I just realized that my previous post didn’t contribute a whole lot to this thread. Just venting…
January 3rd, 2008 at 12:56 am
Its ok FredsFighter, so who’s your Number 2 guy just in case?
January 3rd, 2008 at 12:58 am
What do you mean “just in case”???? There’s no such thing.
Tough question, really. It’s definitely not Huckabee, and it’s not Giuliani.
January 3rd, 2008 at 12:59 am
#6: What do you mean “just in case”???? There’s no such thing.
Tough question, really. It’s definitely not Huckabee, and it’s not Giuliani.
January 3rd, 2008 at 12:59 am
I still think Fred takes 3rd tomorrow. I think the surprise will be Ron Paul and a 4th place.
Fred’s campaign must be very low on funds if they dont continue.
If this does happen will that force Rush to make an explicit endorsement? that may be an interesting issue in and of itself
January 3rd, 2008 at 1:02 am
I wonder how good Thompson’s organization is in Iowa, b/c i know that McCain’s is pretty impressive, alot of pundit’s say that he’s got the 2nd best organization behind Romney
January 3rd, 2008 at 1:02 am
3, I don’t think Thompson’s planning on dropping out if he gets third. If he gets third he will have met or beat expectations. However, if Fred gets fourth he might drop out.
January 3rd, 2008 at 1:06 am
No, cj, I think the only thing that would inspire an explicit endorsement from Rush would be a small win by Huck followed by a win by McCain with a dropout/endorsement by Thompson prior to MI. If there was only one conservative left prior to MI, I think he would endorse. I think his implicit endorsements will have to do for now.
January 3rd, 2008 at 1:07 am
On #10. Really? Does McCain still have a good organization despite all the staff firings from the summer?
January 3rd, 2008 at 1:07 am
Here’s the update from the broadcast in Des Moines tonight on KCCI, First, he was asked about what events would take place if he finishes 3rd or last, and if it is true he will endorse McCain. His answer, “Total fabrication, he never said it either privately or publicly, and it was planted by some other campaignâ€
January 3rd, 2008 at 1:11 am
Yea b/c McCain got just about everyone from sen.Brownback’s campaign. And Brownback had a very good organization in Iowa and finished a close 3rd in the Straw Poll, so thats why McCain’s organization is so good there, and he has alot of loyal supporters, so i look for McCain to finish about 14% in third place i think.
January 3rd, 2008 at 1:13 am
Tommy,
couple of quick questions-
1- if it was planted that means Politico got had. who in the campaign did they speak to or are they assuming things?
2- which campaign do you think put this out there?
January 3rd, 2008 at 1:13 am
We see, word is McCain got a Good Turnout in Des Moines tonight. Word on the Street is he my be pull votes away from the over 55 crowd which romney has had under his belt.
On the Dem side Hillary go 1000, Obama 2000, and Edwards 3000 (But that number was likely inflated by it being a John Melcamp singing too.
Not a good sign for Hillary if Huck outnumber her 2 to 1 in a Dem Stronghold like Des Moines.
January 3rd, 2008 at 1:14 am
Just saw Fred’s wife on TV. We should get her in politics and improve the face of American politics.
January 3rd, 2008 at 1:15 am
Paul8184,
Wow that is great news for McCain, do you have a number on how many attended the McCain event?
January 3rd, 2008 at 1:16 am
I’ve got McCain riding the national surge to a 3rd place in Iowa. I still think that Rudy has a shot, but he needs to perform well in NH, Michigan, and Nevada. My predictions, even though they are meaningless:
Huckabee
Romney
McCain
Paul*
Thompson
Giuliani
Hunter
Keyes
Obama
Clinton
Edwards
Biden*
Richardson
Dodd
Kucinich
Gravel
*dark horse
Just so you know how I stand, my preferences are:
Giuliani
Romney/McCain
Thompson
Biden
Huckabee
Everyone else
January 3rd, 2008 at 1:19 am
Fred does not look hot on intrade, too bad he will endorse Mc-shamnesty in hope a VP spot
Last trades
McCain 27
Rudy 25
Romney 23
Huck 12
Paul 7
Fred 2
January 3rd, 2008 at 1:19 am
Bryan,
You might like this. Apparently McCain’s last rally in Des Moines turned out hundreds of supporters to his Iowa headquarters earlier today. The campaign does have a small, but extremely effective organization (made even better when they absorbed a significant portion of Brownback’s team). They have all their supporters mapped out by precincts and they’ve been flooded with volunteers over the past 2 weeks. They are also planning a full court press with most of his big name supporters:
“Sen’s Sam Brownback, Lindsey Graham and John Thune all spoke and will fan out across the state Thursday. They’ll be joined by their colleagues, Sen. Richard Burr and Jon Ky, as well as Minn Gov. Tim Pawlenty, former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer and a group of McCain’s fellow former POWs.”
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/0108/Caucus_eve_crowd_jams_into_McCain_Iowa_HQ.html
Tommy,
So, the Politico just made up anonymous quotes Thompson campaign officials? I’ve been hearing this for a long time, including just in the past day by someone who would be in a position to know these things.
January 3rd, 2008 at 1:20 am
Hmmmm. It’s leaked out the night before the election that the guy who is surging to 3rd in the polls is planning to drop out! Something smells. It’s a sad thought….. zero conservatives running for the GOP nomination…
January 3rd, 2008 at 1:23 am
Thanks LJ!! That is really Awesome! I’m sure McCain will do well, but i still cant sleep b/c i’m a little bit nervous, i just really hope he pulls out a strong 3rd b/c i’m afraid Mitt might squeak out a close one.
January 3rd, 2008 at 1:27 am
Nothing to be afraid of, Bryan. It won’t be as close as you think.
January 3rd, 2008 at 1:28 am
I’ve been thinking about who a good Vice President choice would be for each of the candidates, should they be nominated. For Rudy Giuliani, I believe a southern pro-life conservative Senator would be needed, to provide national experience and to appease the social conservatives. For Mitt Romney, I would think a similar southern Senator, although it doesn’t have to be as conservative as Giuliani’s Veep. For Huckabee, I would assume he would need someone almost like a Giuliani-type who’s for reducing taxes and strong on national security, although I believe it would again need to be someone with national exposure, like a Senator; as well as from either the northeast or midwest to content in NH and CT or attempt to retain Ohio against Hiliary’s potential Veep, Gov. Strickland. John McCain’s Veep would be the opposite and would need to be someone with executive experience, a governor of yes, a southern state. Senator Thompson would need someone with executive experience, similar to McCain’s veep choice, but it would not need to be from a southern state. With that said, does anyone have any names you’d like to see paired with any of the candidates mentioned above? I am interested to see your thoughts.
January 3rd, 2008 at 1:32 am
I think Romney would go for Barbour.
January 3rd, 2008 at 1:35 am
A lot of people have thrown the names Gov. Sanford of South Carolina and Gov. Christ of Florida. Do they pair up well with any of the candidates? Also among the Senators, any thoughts on Senator Burr of North Carolina and Senator Bond of Missouri? These are not the only ones, but two I randomly thought of; feel free to mention more that would be better suited.
January 3rd, 2008 at 1:38 am
Romney picks Jim DeMint. This is such a no-brainer.
January 3rd, 2008 at 1:39 am
As a McCain supporter, i definitely think that McCain will pick Pawlenty of Minnesota. Not only is he a popular Governor there it puts Minnesota into play in the presidential election, and that will be very important, not to mention they are really good friends. And pawlenty is young enough that he would probably run as president in 2012 after McCain leaves office as one of the greatest presidents the United States has ever had!
January 3rd, 2008 at 1:41 am
When is the last time a VP candidate actually delivered a key state? I can’t think of any in recent times.
January 3rd, 2008 at 1:42 am
Yea good point there that is true, but who knows in this crazy election
January 3rd, 2008 at 1:45 am
“When is the last time a VP candidate actually delivered a key state? ”
One could make the case for Gore in ’92 and ’96. It’s hard to say if Clinton would have won those anyway. Prior to him, you’d probably have to go with Lyndon Johnson in 1960. Tennessee never made the difference in the 90s but Texas sure did in 1960, and as a Catholic, Kennedy was struggling in the South (for a Democrat).
January 3rd, 2008 at 1:46 am
Would any of the current candidates make a good Veep for another candidate? For instance a Giuliani/Huckabee or McCain/Thompson ticket? Or what about those potential or former candidates like Gingrich or Tommy Thompson?
January 3rd, 2008 at 1:48 am
33,
You could consider that Tennessee was blue due to President Clinton instead of Gore due to the fact that Gore lost Tennessee in 2000.
January 3rd, 2008 at 1:53 am
Yea good point that is true…
January 3rd, 2008 at 1:55 am
Generic Republican Veep shortlist:
Any frontrunner except Huckabee (gaffe-prone nature would be a liability)
Fred Thompson (safe generic choice but not good for building for the future)
Duncan Hunter (foreign policy cred for balancing a ticket)
Sarah Palin (what the heck! why not)
Generic Democrat Veep shortlist:
Evan Bayh (Former Gov and Sen of a battleground state)
Mark Warner (Former Gov of a battleground state)
Bill Richardson (Former Gov of a battleground state)
None of the 3 front runners will be sidekick to eachother
Thoughts?
January 3rd, 2008 at 1:57 am
Bryan,
I too think that Romney will win in a close one*. Whatever else can be said about him, Romney has built far and away the best GOTV operation and precinct mapping (they even have supporters listed block by block) system of any candidate this year. That at least counts for an additional 4%-5% in the polls. But I also think that McCain’s rebuilt enough of his base in New Hampshire that he still wins there, even if Romney wins Iowa.
* I use the asterisk because Huckabee could surprise me. For him, it depends on the depth of evangelical support and turnout. If they end up voting in large numbers, and Huckabee gets over 60% of their votes, he’d be able to overcome Romney’s superior organization. But right now, we just don’t know who will actually show up to the Caucus.
asparagus,
Vice presidents aren’t usually chosen because they will lock up a particular state. They’re chosen because they shore up a part that the nominee thinks they’re lacking. For instance, Bush was lacking foreign policy credentials in 2000, so he chose former SecDef Cheney. Likewise, Clinton lacked the same thing in 1992 and chose hawkish Sen. Al Gore. Right now, there are two near-certainties for VP choices: McCain will pick Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who’s the only major Midwestern politician to survive re-election in 2006 and who will shore up much of the skeptical GOP base. And Romney will pick Sen. Jim DeMint, who helps shores up Romney on foreign policy and skeptical Southerners.
January 3rd, 2008 at 1:57 am
We’ve had a remarkable run of VPs from the Senate and the House. Very few governors. Reagan chose Bush, a former member of the House, who had executive experience as ambassador to the UN and then director of the CIA, Carter had Mondale, a Senator from MN. Mondale then chose Ferraro from the House. In ’88, Bush chose Quayle, senator from Indiana. Dukakis chose Lloyd Bentsen, senator from Texas. Clinton chose Al Gore, a senator from Tennessee. Dole chose Jack Kemp, a former member of the House who had served under Bush as HUD secretary. W chose Cheney from the House of Representatives and former Secretary of Defense. Finally, Kerry picked Edwards, a senator from NC. So, we’ve had a total of zero governors selected as VP candidates from 1980 to today.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:01 am
LJ,
What do you make of this Attack story the day before New Hamphire Primary. The sentence that stuck out in my mind was when the guy said that he’s known him since college. Well McCain didnt go to college, he went to the United States Naval Academy, but Romney went to college, what do you make of that?
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:01 am
#39, I think thats because, generically, Governors become Presidents and choose a “Capitol Hill” guy to help him with his orientation to Washington.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:03 am
Burr has back McCain.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:04 am
Asparagus,
It goes back further than that. Spiro Agnew was the last governor to run as VP, in 1972.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:08 am
This might be the year that breaks that trend. The Congress has such a low approval rating now that I believe both parties will select governors (or a certain mayor) as their VP candidate. The election will be dubbed “the competence race”.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:09 am
37
I think Senator Biden would be a good choice for Obama due to his extensive experience and I believe Gov. Strickland of Ohio must be considered as a Veep candidate for the Dems.
Also, what are your thoughts on the Unity08 party, are there any rumors on who they may nominate?
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:09 am
With 3 present or past senators running on the Dem side, they just might dip into the governor pool to shore up more cred on the governance side of things, a flip of the governor choosing a senator to help them with congress and legislation.
As for the Republicans it looks more and more like the shortlist will vary from candidate to candidate, since each has their own unique strengths and flaws.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:10 am
Bloomberg could be an attractive VP for a shrewd Democrat ticket. Clinton-Bloomberg. That would be a powerful ticket.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:10 am
Unity 08: Bloomberg / Hagel
Moonbat 08: Paul / Kucinich
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:11 am
I like a Romney-Guiliani ticket to match up against a Clinton-Bloomberg ticket. Would make for a compelling race.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:11 am
48,
Haha, does that mean there’s still hope for a Keyes/Gravel ticket?
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:12 am
Putting Bloomberg on the ticket prevents him from running as an independent and splitting the Dem vote.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:13 am
Ben,
Haha, I don’t know who would win in a shouting match between Keyes and Gravel. The two of them combined could outmatch anyone!
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:13 am
Clinton/Bloomberg doesn’t work, same state. One of them would have to resign their current office and move.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:14 am
Why is that? Regional politics hasn’t been a factor in over 25 years. Its liberal vs. conservative, not north vs. south.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:16 am
I think PnGrata is referring to a constitutional amendment stating that Pres and Vice Pres must be from seperate states. A remnant from the more independent states wanting less power concentrated from bigger states.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:17 am
Do you think Clinton would consider being a Veep, should Obama get the nod? Same question with the Republicans, consider McCain, Giuliani, and Romney.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:19 am
Also, predictions for tomorrow. Include your dark horses.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:19 am
Hillary needs a man’s man on the ticket. She certainly won’t pick the more feminine Obama or Edwards. Bloomberg is tall and lordly in his appearance, quick-witted, and appeals to the left-wing of the base. I see him as a natural fit for her. Of course, there’s the rub. By having a strong man on the ticket, it only reminds us (she’s a woman). Where Bush needed Gravitas, Clinton needs someone that makes her look powerful.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:20 am
It’s actually Article 2 in the Constitution preventing president and vice president from being from the same state.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:24 am
Has anyone mentionned Harold Ford, Jr. as a possible running mate for any of the Dems? I don’t agree with his politics, but he seems like a rising star in the Democratic Party. He also has the advantage of having a short name to fit on a bumper sticker. That’s why Pawlenty or Huckabee will never be VPs. The font would be tiny.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:26 am
He’s probably too young (38) but is chairman of the DLC and is a Clintonite.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:44 am
Sorry to post ad nauseum, but I believe I’ve stumbled onto a real winner for Hillary in Ford Jr. Consider these comments, from a libertarian blog, Even Stevens:
The leading dark horse candidate should be, and I believe is, Harold Ford, Jr. Unlike Obama he hails from a red state in the South, has actually had to run competitively statewide (does anyone really think Obama gained a lot of solid campaign experience beating Alan Keyes?) and many Democrats believe (incorrectly or not) that he was robbed of the Senate seat due to blatant race-baiting which should increase Democratic turnout in Tennessee if he is on the ticket. This could be especially important if Fred Thompson upsets Giuliani to become the GOP 2008 Nominee.
Ford also is the current Chairman of the Democratic Leadership Council, formerly chaired by Bill Clinton during his days as Governor of Arkansas. Additionally, the Obama phenomenon and the decent results achieved by Bill Richardson have acculturated Democratic activists to the idea of a minority on the ticket (beyond a privileged white woman of course). However, picking Richardson or any hispanic politician would enrage the nation’s black community who believe their time for a more prominent place on the national stage/in the national debate, and who likely would view an hispanic pick as “skipping over” one of their own.
http://unevensteven2.blogspot.com/2007/08/of-course-hillary-wont-pick-obama-shell.html
Ford’s main problem isn’t his race. Its his “new Democrat” voting record. He voted for the Iraq invasion and it remains to be seen how the Democratic base would react to someone nominated for VP who does not suffer from Bush Derangement Syndrome.
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:06 am
The BDS crowd hates the DLC. I really don’t know who Hillary will pick. She can’t pick anyone that will make people wish that person was running for President instead, which I think would be the case with Evan Bayh or Harold Ford. Richardson doesn’t come off as smart as the other two so she might pick him. A BDS-patient would scare off swing voters. She has to go military like Wes Clark, someone whose expertise is strictly defense.
January 4th, 2008 at 3:06 am
[...] have is: ?Without a solid third-place finish, there?s no point in going on,? a Thompson adviser race42008.com ? Blog Archive ? Politico: Fred Thompson May Drop Out After Iowa Thompson may drop out, back McCain – Jonathan Martin and Mike Allen – Politico.com NH, as I’ve [...]
January 4th, 2008 at 10:09 am
[...] a solid third-place finish, there’s no point in going on,” a Thompson adviser race42008.com ? Blog Archive ? Politico: Fred Thompson May Drop Out After Iowa Thompson may drop out, back McCain – Jonathan Martin and Mike Allen – Politico.com NH, as I’ve [...]