Hey folks. I’ve been away with family weddings and vacations but I’m back in action tonight.
Let me set up the cast of characters for you to guide us through Iowa:
First, Jason Bonham, leaving wife and children to trod through Iowa following Romney embedded with the press. Jason will no doubt be making his own updates throughout the day but I’ll pitch in and throw an audible via proxy for him from time to time.
Second, my best friend, we’ll call him M. He is showing me up big time by leaving his 5 kids to spend 3 days in Iowa and 4+ in New Hampshire. M is from Virginia but will actually be giving the pro-Romney speech at a caucus location in South East Iowa. He’ll give us some excellent insights as the night proceeds.
Third, Romney campaign staffer. We’ll call him “Scooter” (just because). Scooter will give us the perspective from the home base and keep tabs on the unexpected for us.
Fourth, Romney campaign staffer in Iowa. We’ll call him “X” – a highly prized consultant to the Romney campaign with good knowledge of Iowa.
OK… here’s our first report:
Jason - is down at the Marriott Hotel with other press folks waiting for the fireworks. He saw Amanda Carpenter right after her Ed Rollins experience. Apparently, there’s even more to the what Ed had to say about Romney and family. Yuck. Ugly. Jason must be tired but I think he’s having the time of his life.
M - Last I spoke with “M” (my best friend from Virginia) he was in a car with other Romney supporters making stops at various caucus locations, dropping off people to make the Romney pitch to the local crowd. Yesterday, he said HQ was overflowing, packed with people. “M” tells me that the area captains for Team Romney are jumping off the walls. These are the folks who are in charge of the geographical regions in Iowa. Apparently, the amount of support they have gotten to help them in their efforts is literally overwhelming.
Scooter - I asked “Scooter” in Boston about one of my favorite topics, push-polling. The timfoil hat theories that other campaigns are pushing seem to be falling apart since its apparent that the NH AG will not have a report ready before next Tuesday. “Scooter” will be shooting up to New Hampshire to meet Romney tonight after the caucus.
“X” - This top Romney consultant tells me that he feels great. In his opinion, Huckabee has completely outsourced his GOTV efforts, relying on the Fair Tax and Homeschool crowds. One reporter indicated that the Huckabee phonebank was full of 13 year olds compared to the serious non-outsourced volunteers who (like “M” above) have come from all over the country to help out.
All of these sources tell me it will be a nail biter but that they feel the Governor can really pull it out in the end.
More soon!
January 3rd, 2008 at 6:45 pm
Justin – thanks for the updates! Good stuff!
January 3rd, 2008 at 6:46 pm
Sweet. This makes me want to head to new hampshire.
January 3rd, 2008 at 6:49 pm
intrade gives huckabee a 3 to 1 edge over romney.
January 3rd, 2008 at 6:49 pm
So, sampo, if Romney wins, it will be a huge upset?
January 3rd, 2008 at 6:50 pm
Looks like the big boys pick Romney -
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/01/prediction_time.html
January 3rd, 2008 at 6:51 pm
nope, he outspent huck 20 to 1.
January 3rd, 2008 at 6:52 pm
Anyone coming to NH let me know.
Justin – let your friend know I will probably see him when he meets the Romneys this evening.
January 3rd, 2008 at 6:53 pm
sampo, that was as of Q3. You’re three months out of date.
January 3rd, 2008 at 6:54 pm
It won’t be a big upset in the sense that Romeny was the frontrunner for most of the year, and has spent so much, but many will deffinately find it impressive that a Mormon from the Northeast beat a southern preacher in IA.
January 3rd, 2008 at 6:59 pm
murphy,
actually it was 30 to 1 after Q3.
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/index.asp?cycle=2008
January 3rd, 2008 at 7:00 pm
why are Intrade predictions be so different than #5?
January 3rd, 2008 at 7:03 pm
My sources tell me the pucker factor is extremely high in the Romney camp. They are talking about 2nd place still being a ticket out of Iowa.
January 3rd, 2008 at 7:03 pm
Apparently his imperious majesty, Romney, failed to impress Ms. Carpenter much. She’s posted a townhall.com article about Romney “promising” to stay grimly and viciously negative throughout the race. I found it because lots of other people are linking to it. I link to it myself from here:
http://dotan.wordpress.com/2008/01/03/romneycakes/
I am so proud that Romney is a Republican that I could just shoot myself.
January 3rd, 2008 at 7:05 pm
Nice try, sampo. That link was for national spending.
Obviously, Huckabee is spending a far higher percentage in Iowa. Huckabee has been running ads at about 2/3 the frequency as Romney.
January 3rd, 2008 at 7:07 pm
civic virtue,
Since when did pointing out factually correct policy differences become viciously negative? Get real. Romney’s been the one wearing kids gloves, while Huckabee and McCain fire off the personal insults.
January 3rd, 2008 at 7:07 pm
Civic,
The heading of the article is misleading and you are a half wit for not understanding that after reading the article, if you read it at all. Romney said he would be “forthright about differences on issues†like taxes, immigration and crime with this Republican opponents.”
He never said he would continue to go negative.
January 3rd, 2008 at 7:27 pm
Making fun of little kids is so mature of you, Justin.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:35 pm
It’s so cute how you guys all had secret code names and all! LOL
June 30th, 2009 at 4:01 am
Kew site…
Keep up the g00d work man!…