Poll Watch: Zogby Iowa GOP Caucus Poll
- Mike Huckabee: 28% (29)
- Mitt Romney: 26% (25)
- John McCain: 12% (12)
- Fred Thompson: 12% (10)
- Ron Paul: 9% (7)
- Rudy Giuliani: 7% (8)
A few points I’d note. First, a quote from Zogby “Huckabee’s numbers are clearly going down, but Romney’s numbers are not going up”. They also list Huckabee as dropping “2 points”. I’d suspect that they’re referring solely to yesterday’s results (remember it’s a tracking poll). If this holds, I wouldn’t be surprised if the final poll tomorrow has them dead tied, or Romney only 1 behind. I’d also point out that Ron Paul leads Rudy not only in this poll, but in the RCP average by 1.5%. In other words, given Ron Paul’s rabid fan-base, Rudy’s very likely to finish in 6th. Even for a guy who’s ignored Iowa, that’s devastating.
January 2nd, 2008 at 8:56 am
In other words, given Ron Paul’s rabid fan-base, Rudy’s very likely to finish in 6th. Even for a guy who’s ignored Iowa, that’s devastating.
Why?
I wouldn’t underestimate Rudy — he’s got offices open in Iowa and an actual ground game — but even if he did end up coming in sixth — so what? He’s in a slump right now and he’s facing a guy that’s currently being propped up by the media (McCain), the sole anti-war candidate, and people that have devoted all of their resources to Iowa.
Rudy’s focused on the delegate count. Iowa awards no delegates tomorrow.
If Huckabee manages to pull this off in Iowa and McCain wins New Hampshire, Rudy may be looking at the perfect storm to win the nomination.
January 2nd, 2008 at 9:01 am
We could look at Rudy’s Florida strategy working out in a few ways:
1. Rudy’s waiting for the real showdown — The pre-Florida battles were really part of duking it out for the privilege of facing Rudy in Florida. Rudy could win that and then win Super Tuesday in a blowout.
2. Depending on who wins what — Mitt/IA, McCain/NH, Hucakbee/SC is not outside the realm of possibility — FLorida could just be seen as Rudy’s turn to win a state, and Super Tuesday would be the big blowout to decide it all. Rudy wins with his superior organization in the Super Tuesday states.
3. Rudy is the conservative savior — Huckabee vs. McCain turns into this. Huckabee and McCain are NOT acceptable to the serious conservative base and the conservative media. They’d tear those two apart and look at Rudy as the white knight waiting to save them in Florida. Romney would be seen as useless, having failed to win anything even after spending eighty million dollars (much of that his own fortune).
4. Rudy absolutely tanks — Not outside the realm of possibility. Maybe Romney and McCain steamroll him and his strategy looks absolutely preposterous in hindsight. (Maybe not.)
But don’t discount 1-3.
January 2nd, 2008 at 9:03 am
Actually, it’s not even fair to call it a “Florida strategy” –
It’s a Super Tuesday strategy. It’s a delegate strategy. He’s banking on states actually doing the thing that they said that they would — move up in order to exercise more clout over the process.
Don’t think that he can’t make that sort of appeal: “Are you really gonna let Iowa pick your nominee, California? New Jersey? Illinois? Missouri? You want me for President; don’t give into those hicks in Iowa!”
January 2nd, 2008 at 9:15 am
New Jersey is in the tank for Rudy, 2 of the GOP county chair bosses here who are backing Rudy,
passed a rule making New Jersey a “Winner-take-All” state. With Rudy’s popularity here, this
was seen as a Pro-Giuliani rule change.
January 2nd, 2008 at 9:19 am
“Huckabee’s numbers are clearly going down, but Romney’s numbers are not going upâ€
They need to take a look at their own polling – Romney gained as much as Huckabee lost in this poll.
January 2nd, 2008 at 9:22 am
TLG,
Finishing behind Ron Paul in a GOP primary will be devastating to any candidate. It’s especially devastating to Rudy, given that Paul hasn’t seriously campaigned in the state either. Then there’s NH. Regardless of who wins Iowa, if Rudy finishes 6th in Iowa, he probably finishes no better then 4th in NH. Huck is only 2.5 points behind Rudy there in RCP. An Iowa win is worth at least 3-5 points in NH for Huck, and a 6th place finish in Iowa probably drops Rudy at least 3 points in NH. I’m still not at all convinced that it’s in Rudy’s best interests to see Huck win Iowa, because Rudy needs a 3rd place finish in NH to be taken seriously afterwards, and as it stands, it looks like McCain might be able to hold on in NH even if Romney wins Iowa (the momentum is all heading McCain’s way). Indeed, with a Huck win in Iowa, it’s not at all inconceivable that Rudy finishes 6th and 5th in Iowa and NH respectively, behind Ron Paul both times. Then where to? He’s almost certain to take no better then 4th in MI, especially if Huckabee and McCain win Iowa and NH. He’s in 5th in SC and assuming Thompson manages 13-14% or more on caucus night, he’ll probably stick around long enough to make sure Rudy doesn’t get 4th in SC. 6th, 5th, 4th, 5th, and then to victory in Florida? Really?
January 2nd, 2008 at 9:28 am
Obama is set to win the DEM race – that is bad news for McCain, particularly if Romney wins IA.
January 2nd, 2008 at 9:29 am
Matt,
You’re probably right that Rudy needs third or higher in NH, but I’m not at all sure that a) he’ll place 6th in IA (After all how can you be confident he will place that low with such a close grouping of candidates within MoE? Wouldn’t that be just as ballsy as asserting boldly that Huckabee was very likely to win IA? He’s 0.7 ahead of Romney in the polling average) and b) even with a very poor showing in IA I don’t think it matters much in NH. Everyone knows Rudy never seriously contested IA.
January 2nd, 2008 at 9:32 am
Huckabee’s own words condmen him,
“If you can’t be honest in getting the job, you won’t be honest once you get the job.”
Huckabee’s website says he was ALWAYS supportive and unwavering in his support of a human life amendment. But that is not true. Up until 2006 he took a federalist state’s rights position just like Thompson and Paul.
Huckabee said he believes that parents ought to be empowered to make the best decision for their children’s education but forced parents to wait 14 days before taking their child out of a government school.
Huckabee said he is for homeschooling, but signed a law making it harder to homeschool.
Huckabee said he was against international governments organizations from involving themselves in our lives, but as governor allowed the UN backed IBO schools into Arkanasas. IBO promotes global citizenship over national citizenship, and common morality over absolute Truth.
He said that he had a theology degree he doesn’t hold.
Huckabee has misrepresented himself and his record.
Huckabee said on Hannity and Colmes,
“”[I]f I say things about my own record that aren’t true, I don’t know how else to call it, but dishonest.”
By Huckabee’s own standard he is dishonest, and should not be trusted.
you can read the documentation for this at my blog, it was too long to put in a comment box.
http://www.spunkyhomeschool.blogspot.com/
If Huckabee’s numbers go down, it’s because people are just using the same standard to judge Huckabee that he tells us to use on a candidate for President.
January 2nd, 2008 at 9:37 am
Apparently, there is a new NH poll with McCain taking the lead (albeit a small one). I didn’t catch the name of the poll.
January 2nd, 2008 at 9:38 am
#9 – clearly you are anti-huckabee. what candidate are you supporting?
January 2nd, 2008 at 9:40 am
I am a Jersey resident, and Duncan Hunter is my guy, but he failed to make the Feb. 5th ballot and to be
honest, he will be gone by then anyway. I am between Fred Thompson and Ron Paul at the moment, even though
both have different approaches to many issues. The way things are going, who knows if Thompson will
be around by Feb. 5th either.
January 2nd, 2008 at 9:41 am
For anyone paying attention, the five candidates ahead of Rudy are NOT pro-choice.
January 2nd, 2008 at 9:42 am
Axel,
Is it the CNN Poll? I just saw that. It was just put in the RCP average. Romney is in big trouble in NH. If he loses IA he is done. If Iowa is unclear and McCain takes third, McCain may yet win NH.
http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2008/images/01/02/topnh9.pdf
McCain 29
Romney 29
Giuliani 12
Huck 10
Paul 7
Fred 2
January 2nd, 2008 at 9:42 am
#10 – we saw that poll yesterday.
That said, I’m not sure how big of a deal it is.
Lets get through Iowa first.
January 2nd, 2008 at 9:43 am
I guess that depends on which Mitt Romney becomes President…
January 2nd, 2008 at 9:44 am
“he way things are going, who knows if Thompson will
be around by Feb. 5th either.”
He won’t.
January 2nd, 2008 at 9:46 am
when Hunter and Thompson drop out are there any guesses to whom they will endorse?
January 2nd, 2008 at 9:46 am
Following up, the last CNN poll taken just a week before Christmas showed Romney leading by 12.
January 2nd, 2008 at 9:49 am
ACT,
The Suffolk poll which showed McCain up by 6 was released yesterday. The CNN poll, showing a tie in NH and Romney losing a 12-point lead is new.
January 2nd, 2008 at 9:50 am
well, like I said, we need to get through Iowa first.
January 2nd, 2008 at 9:57 am
#18, IF they drop out, I expect Thompson to go with McCain. Hunter? I have no idea…I couldn’t have predicted Tancredo going to Romney, so I’m done guessing…
January 2nd, 2008 at 9:58 am
Romney will get a bounce going into NH….
Because he will will IOWA…..
The HUCK-A-BUST is COMING……..TOMORROW!!!
Mark My Words!!
Organization, Planning, Message, Strategy, Execution, Comprehensive Conservative……
Oh Yeah, Baby….
January 2nd, 2008 at 9:59 am
dang…”will win”….not will will….
January 2nd, 2008 at 10:00 am
Abe,
You better call your doctor and make sure he’s available to give you a prescription for those happy pills…you know… just in case.
January 2nd, 2008 at 10:01 am
No, Huckabee has more “love” and “excitement” from his supporters. It’s the demographics folks, they are going to swamp Romney.
I still predict, 40 to 25, Huckabee over Romney.
January 2nd, 2008 at 10:01 am
abe – what if you are wrong?
January 2nd, 2008 at 10:02 am
#18, Thompson will endorse McCain and Hunter is a ? as to which way he goes .. If Hunter drops
out to support someone for NH, I expect he would endorse Thompson.
January 2nd, 2008 at 10:09 am
UA,
I won’t be……
HOO, HA, Ha, Hah, ha, haaaaahhhhh…..
January 2nd, 2008 at 10:21 am
David Brooks wrote a devastating article about Romney Sunday:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/01/opinion/01brooks.html?_r=3&oref=slogin&ref=opinion&pagewanted=print&oref=slogin
January 2nd, 2008 at 10:22 am
Nowandlater,
I believe you’re right. The fact is that Romney, for all of his big spending, has never convinced Iowans that he is the best horse in the race. If he did then they wouldn’t have been so quick to switch allegiances to Huck. The evangelicals will be out in full force for one of their own. There are simply not enough Mormons in Iowa to counter this. And there are not enough so-con Republicans making over 75k/year to counter this (And before Rombooster accuse me of putting down Romney because he’s got more money – I’m not. Polling suggests that Romney supporters nationally are skewed toward those with higher annual incomes).
Anyway – I’m not sure I am with you on the 40-25 rout, but if I were a Huckabee guy (I’m not) I would like Huck’s chances.
And Abe,
The Huck-A-BUST **IS** coming! (You just better hope for your guy’s sake that it isn’t delayed until Tuesday. Otherwise Romney will get the J-Mac smack.
January 2nd, 2008 at 10:33 am
Thanks….
Nowandlater…..
And BTW do you really like your Candy “namesake” or something…..
January 2nd, 2008 at 10:37 am
Yep, I am having one right now.
Romney will lose Iowa but it does necessarily mean he will lose the nomination. But I just hope it is someone else because I am getting tired of my Faith being unfairly smeared.
January 2nd, 2008 at 10:44 am
I wouldn’t be suprised that Thompson would endorse McCain
if McCain got third in Iowa and I wouldn’t be suprised that
Hunter would endorse Huckabee if Huckabee won Iowa. As for
the results of the Iowa from nowandlater, I think 40-25 Huckabee
over Romney might be to high. I think 35-25 Huckabee over Romney
is more realistic.
January 2nd, 2008 at 10:46 am
I expect Romney to win Iowa tomorrow by a small margin but I think his odds of the nomination are sinking.
The tiff between Huckabee and Romney benefits neither. The real beneficiary is McCain who looks ready to pull a strong 3rd place in Iowa.
We know if the story is “Romney barely beats Huckabee” or “McCain’s surprising third place finish”…
Which one the media will pick. I’d not be surprised to see Romney win Iowa and his support in NH drop as McCain continues to rise.
January 2nd, 2008 at 10:53 am
I am sticking with 40 to 25. When the pastor network is motivated (it is) then those kind of results are achievable.
January 2nd, 2008 at 11:02 am
I say that no one, not pollsters, pundits, poltiicians, and poltiical junkies know who is going to win IA and anyone who says that they do is a damned fool
January 2nd, 2008 at 11:14 am
“Organization, Planning, Message, Strategy, Execution, Comprehensive Conservative …… ”
And spending US$ 8 million dollars on the ground! Purchasing 2000 GRPs in Cedar Rapids alone, double the point of saturation! Of course Romney’s struggling for his political life against a candidate that he’s out-spent 20 to 1 but that’s a minor detail that everyone will forget once Romney get’s the big mo’, baby. What was it Romney said yesterday about his earlier statements on the Iraq war?—oh, yes, he’d have to “review his notes.” Will anyone be reviewing their notes? Probably not.
“Oh Yeah, Baby….”
By that you refer to Romney’s viciously negative campaigning. Exquisite, I agree, as it provides us a rare glimpse of the character of the man who lurks behind the curtain.
January 2nd, 2008 at 11:36 am
#38 – he is running scared AND he should be
January 2nd, 2008 at 11:41 am
nowandlater, the pastors can tell their adherents in services to get and vote, but how big of a role are they going to play? In speaking with some friends in Iowa, they say they pay their pastor to give them an uplifting message each week, but then they go back to their ordinary lives. The polls have been saying that they are 35-45$% EVANGELICALS, I wouldn’t expect any more than that. Sure, they want Huckabee to win, but I have been told not to expect them to be highly mobilized just because their pastors told them to go vote for Huckabee. I think the percentages of evangelicals in the polls of likely caucas goers will hold. The real question is, how many LDS folks will show up?
January 2nd, 2008 at 11:44 am
civic virtue, what was so vicious about his negative ads. omney said that he got so many questions around Iowa about what it was the Huckabee stood for that he just had to do the compare/contrast ads to educated the masses. Nobody knew what Huckabee’s record was, and he certainly wasn’t telling anyone.
January 2nd, 2008 at 11:44 am
“The real question is, how many LDS folks will show up?”
Less than 1/10th as many as Evangelicals. It’s a mathematical fact.
January 2nd, 2008 at 11:46 am
Here’s a Huckabee “joke” he told Iowa supporters
“”If for some crazy reason they’re not going to vote for me, you have a different job. Do not let them leave their homes. Tell them the Orange Bowl is going to be the most exciting football game in the history of mankind, shovel your snow into their driveway, let the air out of their tires, disconnect their battery cables,”
Real funny, huh?
http://www.whotv.com/Global/story.asp?S=7565258&nav=LotJC5tQ
January 2nd, 2008 at 11:51 am
Sounds like Huckabee has been in Chicago lately, getting turnout tips from the Daley’s
January 2nd, 2008 at 11:51 am
Adam, however, it looks like the evangelicals are already incorporated into the polls. I don’t think the LDS voters are incorporated into the polls because they will come out at a much higher rate than they are polled. Iowa has 2.9 million people and 22,000 LDS – less than 1% of the population. That says that in a 100,000 person caucus (being generous here), only 800 LDS voters should be there. What if 6,000 LDS voters show up? That’s a 5+% swing for somebody.
January 2nd, 2008 at 11:57 am
Greg,
Evangelical turnout was much higher in 2004 than it was in 2000. Nationally that year Bush increased his vote total 23 % while John Kerry only increased his vote total 16 percent over Al Gore. A disproportionate amount of that came from Evangelicals and it was the Evangelical vote that was instrumental in turning Iowa from blue to red in 2004.
Now imagine for a minute that these same Evangelicals have one of their own running for president. What do you think is going to happen to their collective motivation? If anything, there may be just as high of a percentage of Evangelicals compared to their total population as you would expect of Mormons from their respective total population. What that means is even more Evangelicals.
We’ll find out soon enough.
January 2nd, 2008 at 12:19 pm
civic virtue #38,
I thought Romney had outspent everyone combined by 100 to 1,
But unfortunately he hasn’t spent any of it on actually bribing anyone to vote for him….
That idiot….
January 2nd, 2008 at 3:02 pm
[...] according to Zogby, a different [...]