Patrick Ruffini, hardly a McCain fan, looks at the exit poll numbers from McCain’s 2000 New Hampshire landslide and comes away with one conclusion: McCain is heading toward a “blowout” victory in 2008:
Because we seem to be headed for a replay of the same dynamic that prevailed in the early 2000 primaries, I thought it would be helpful to go back and take a second look at the exit poll from the ‘00 NH primary, which John McCain won by 18 points – 48.5% to 30.3% for then-Governor George W. Bush.
My recent posts notwithstanding, McCain looks to me like the prohibitive favorite in the Granite State. I was in New Hampshire for Bush. The night before, the race leaned slightly to McCain. In their weak moments, the volunteers on the guessed we’d fall short by 3 or 4 points. We lost by 18. There was a hidden vote for McCain on primary day that counted for as much as 15 points.
McCain will not get 49 percent – the also-rans are stronger this time – but 40 or 45 percent is not out of the question. To see why, we need only look to McCain’s amazing strength among virtually every subgroup in the 2000 primary, and the overall composition of the New Hampshire GOP electorate. In stark contrast to rest of the nation, it is very difficult for a candidate running as a conservative to win a Republican primary in the Northeast. McCain won every New England state except Maine against Bush in 2000, even Bush’s ancestral Connecticut.
With Obama failing to close the sale and McCain surging, independents will vote in large numbers in the Republican primary. After Romney’s increasingly likely victory in Iowa, the best I suspect he’ll be able to do is claim that as his “conference championship” win to advance to the finals, and raise a cloud of dust to limit the damage in New Hampshire. As Bush discovered in 2000 and Bob Dole discovered in ‘96, New Hampshire is strange and an outlier.
He goes on to post the internals of the poll that show some surprising results:
- McCain won every county and all but a handful of small towns.
- McCain ran stronger among men, 57 percent of the primary electorate, winning by 50 to 28 percent.
- He won voters over 60 with 52 percent, and those over 65 with 54 percent. The formidable Mike Dennehy turnout operation has the blessing of being able to mobilize seniors, the highest-propensity voting group, who already identify with John McCain.
- He won college graduates, 52 percent of the electorate, by nearly 2-to-1, 53 to 28 percent.
- Barely 53 percent of the electorate “affiliated” with the Republican Party – though more were registered – and McCain took 38 percent of this most-conservative half of the electorate, running just three points behind Bush.
- Just 51 percent of GOP primary voters considered themselves conservative (that’s compared to 73 percent in the 2000 Iowa Caucuses). McCain edged Bush 37-35 percent with conservatives.
- McCain won 48 percent of Pat Buchanan voters.
- McCain won registered Republicans 44-35. That’s right: had this been a closed primary, McCain still would have won by nearly 10 points.
That brings to mind one of main arguments that McCain’s critics have thrown around over the years. Namely that McCain can win open-primaries with the help independents and Democrats, but does poorly in closed primaries. Not only does the above data dispute that charge, but it also fails to take into account momentum and timing. The most frequent example of McCain doing badly in closed primaries is South Carolina, 2000 where he lost 53% to 42%. But there’s much more than meets the eyes here.
The 2000 South Carolina primary will undoubtedly go down as one of the uglier periods in American political history. Following McCain’s landslide victory in New Hampshire on February 1st, the Bush campaign waged an intense 18 day smear campaign, that was led by Bush loyalist Warren Tompkins (a hatchet man that now works for Gov. Romney). The targeted Sen. McCain, his wife Cindy, and most despicably, their daughter Bridget (McCain’s current campaign manager, Rick Davis, discussed the anatomy of the South Carolina smear offensive in this 2004 article, also see this extremely depressing account in the October New York Times). McCain, his campaign strategist John Weaver and manager Davis fought valiantly to dispel the rumors but the more time that was spent addressing the charge just made the damage worse. But the question is, why did the Bush campaign resort to such low-ball tactics in the first place? Because following McCain stunning in New Hampshire, his momentum had resulted in a massive turnaround in his support in the state.
A CNN/Gallup poll of the South Carolina race taken two days before the New Hampshire primary showed that the race wasn’t even close:
- George W. Bush 52%
- John McCain 32%
But three days after the NH primary, CNN took another poll of South Carolina and found vastly different results. McCain was leading in South Carolina:
- John McCain 44%
- George W. Bush 40%
That was a swing of 24 points in a little less than a week’s time. Talk about momentum. It is this result that has led me to argue for the past 8 years that John McCain could have very well won the South Carolina primary and gone on to win the GOP nomination in 2000, if only the NH and SC primaries were scheduled a few days apart instead of two and a half weeks.
This time around, the primary schedule is extremely advantageous for John McCain. The New Hampshire primary is on January 8th and as Patrick Ruffini shows above, McCain is headed towards victory in that state. Then comes the Michigan primary on January 15th. This is a state that McCain won in 2000 even after losing South Carolina. This time around there is effectively no Democratic primary. Only Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd and Dennis Kucinich are on the ballot. But since the DNC stripped Michigan of its delegates those three won’t even be campaigning in the state. That means that the Michigan Republican primary will be a complete free for all. Romney’s advisers are already producing ads for the state in the event that Romney loses Iowa and New Hampshire and has to make a last stand in Michigan. It’s increasingly likely that Fred Thompson will drop out if he does worse than third in Iowa and endorse McCain. Rudy Giuliani seems to have abandoned every state before Florida and as such, won’t be a factor. Huckabee has done well in the Michigan polls lately, but hasn’t campaigned in the state in months. His strategy centers on Iowa, South Carolina and Florida. That leaves McCain and Romney to battle in out on the 15th. That’s the way it should be. The two have been waging proxy fights against each other for more than two years (Mark Hemingway wrote the two seminal pieces extensively detailing the Michigan feud, one for the Weekly Standard in 2006 and one for the National Review in 2007. These should be required reading by everyone).
Whoever wins Michigan will have a great deal of momentum heading into the next two states: Nevada and South Carolina. It’s important to remember that both states hold their votes on the same day, January 19th. That a mere 4 days after the Michigan primary. Nevada is also organized as a caucus whereas South Carolina is a primary. The conventional wisdom about Nevada is that it’s a battle between Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani given that they have very good organizations set up in the state. The advantage has to go to Romney however due to the high concentration of Mormons in the state. As it stands right now, he should be able to win the state. Unfortunately for him, it falls on the same day as South Carolina and so he won’t receive a bump from it. Not only that, but the Nevada Caucus seems almost entirely ignored by the media. And really, it’s the media that defines who gets momentum or who doesn’t.
So, if McCain manages to win New Hampshire and Michigan, he will have a great deal of momentum that puts him over the top in South Carolina. Talk about a reversal of fortunes.
January 1st, 2008 at 10:13 pm
2008 is not 2000.
January 1st, 2008 at 10:14 pm
McCain is not going to win with 45 freaking percent.
Independents are going to be split this time, unlike in 2000.
That said, McCain will win New Hampshire, with Romney in 2nd and Paul in 3rd. I’m marking that down as an official prediction!
January 1st, 2008 at 10:14 pm
1,
You’re right, it’s not. It’s going to be better because John McCain will be elected president this year.
January 1st, 2008 at 10:15 pm
By the way, let me just say that Patrick Ruffini has a stunning track record this election season. (“Ron Paul will come in second at Ames! There’s a hidden turnout!”)
January 1st, 2008 at 10:16 pm
For the life of me I cannot figure out how Sen. McCain in the White House would be cause for the conservatives that he hates with a burning passion to cheer.
January 1st, 2008 at 10:16 pm
Patrick — President? Of what? The retiring Senators club?
Even though I am an atheist, I will pray hard for Huckabee to win Iowa, so this can become a Huckabee-McCain race. In that instance, the conservative media will eat them both alive, rally around Rudy, and prepare him for a FL win and a Super Tuesday blowout.
January 1st, 2008 at 10:18 pm
Very funny.
You know what I’m talking about.
January 1st, 2008 at 10:21 pm
Also, why are we assuming that McCain gets put over the top in Michigan just because he wins New Hampshire?
All the independents will be voting in the Republican primary there.
I say that it becomes extremely unpredictable — anyone’s call, really. Who knows? What will the Paul factor be?
January 1st, 2008 at 10:21 pm
#6
Actually, you should be praying for a small Romney victory in both states. Giuliani has no chance if Sen. McCain’s campaign gets off the ground. He’s got a small chance fighting Gov. Romney. Either way, Giuliani’s odds are nearing zero.
Time to pick your poison. Romney or McCain. One of these two will be the party’s nominee.
January 1st, 2008 at 10:24 pm
Why is it so reasonable to talk about McCain having a “hidden vote” that wasn’t getting polled, when talk of Ron Paul having a hidden vote is dismissed as “deluded”?
Questions to ask yourself:
-Why has the number of people who would describe themselves as Republicans jumped up to the highest it’s been since 2005 within the last couple months, while the number of people who say they approve of President Bush’s job approval remained level?
-Why does no one mention the fact that more than 40% of Republicans in Iowa are anti-war, as are more than half of Republicans in New Hampshire?
-How did Ron Paul win all those straw polls across the country?
-Who is giving Ron Paul all that cash?
I’ve gone from a skeptic to an optimist concerning Ron Paul’s chances in the primaries in a very short period of time. There’s more than two possible winners of New Hampshire.
January 1st, 2008 at 10:25 pm
On #8. You answered your own question in that 2nd sentence. That being said I could the Huckster winning Michigan as opposed to McCain. He’s been polling well there I think.
January 1st, 2008 at 10:25 pm
Keep on dreaming LJ
January 1st, 2008 at 10:26 pm
#10
Paul’s New Hampshire numbers have been very disappointing from my POV. I expected him to be well into the teens by this point.
January 1st, 2008 at 10:26 pm
LJ, this isnt 2000, and as TLG points out, the independant vote will be split up. I looked at the internals of a NH poll from 2 weeks ago earlier today. Obama lead independants with 28%, McCain 24%, Edwards, Clinton, Romney, Rudy, Huck, and Fred will each pick up a few points too. Following IA in 2000, there was basically only a few candidates in the race; Bush, McCain, and Gore. Gore had beaten Bradley so bad that the Dems race wasnt even competitive. Many, many, many liberals (independants and Dems both) voted for McCain (some switched parties). Some exit polls suggest that Bush won among the GOP but lost the independant vote 61-19%. That wont happen again.
January 1st, 2008 at 10:28 pm
#13,
I’ve put less and less stock in the media’s poll numbers in NH as time has gone on and I’ve seen what’s been happening on the ground. There is a serious hidden vote for Paul in NH, and a lot of people sitting on the fence will be swayed when Paul surprises in Iowa.
January 1st, 2008 at 10:32 pm
Actually husky, as the post shows, McCain won among registered Republicans.
However, I can’t see McCain winning the same number of independents. With the Iowa race a dead heat on the Dem side, chances are high that Obama will attract large numbers. Paul will also probably attract quite a few.
The 2000 SC race was so sad. It gave us an inkling of the sort of person Bush was. Winning is everything for Rove & Co, and it hasn’t benefitted American politics at all. Some legacy.,..
January 1st, 2008 at 10:32 pm
Of course I failed to mention Ron Paul who will take a lot of independant votes too. I dont think any 1 candidate will get more than 30% of the independant vote, but several could get more than 20%.
One more thing. Money, organization, and being from neighboring MA will help Romney as well. I would bet his groundgame in NH is better than anyone else has seen there in more than 10 years.
One final note… Romney was ahead by 16.4% in RCP when early voting began. He had 30%+ support for 7+ months, and a solid double digit lead most of that time. I would conclude that with his thousands of staff and supporters there, he could successfully get his solid support to the polls, making irrelevant whatever IA outcome is.
And todays Suffolk NH poll was the 1st lead McCain has had in NH since May!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
January 1st, 2008 at 10:33 pm
TLG – as much as it pains me to say this, if it came down to a JMac-huckster pre-Tsunami Tuesday battle I would probably be cheering for Rudy as well. JMac and the huckster are both far worse than Rudy.
NH IS NOT THE SAME NOW AS IT WAS IN 2000!!!! Will someone please F***ing listen to me on this. Indies in NH in 2008 are anti-war left-leaning. My state has been inundated with Massholes and the entire political landscape has changed. Ophrama and RuPaul are going to pull a high majority of the indie votes this time around. NH will be a squeaker and I want to wait until after IA before making a prediction. But, yes TLG – I can see RuPaul taking 3rd in NH
January 1st, 2008 at 10:37 pm
the post contains one persons opinion on the 2000 NH exit poll.
In this one, Bush beat McCain 41-38% among Republican voters.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/primaries/NH/poll.rep.html
it also shows a 62-19% edge to McCain among inde’s. I dont think that will be even close this time.
January 1st, 2008 at 10:39 pm
Even if (and its a big if) Mitt loses the first two, I say he still takes Michigan and Nevada. And if he does that he’s back in the driver’s seat to take SC, then Florida.
January 1st, 2008 at 10:40 pm
Your humble econ grad stud called this a week ago.
January 1st, 2008 at 10:41 pm
JayPe- see the link, Bush won in 2000 among GOP.
RayinNH- can you shed light on Romneys groundgame there? Have you volunteered. Do you see a buzz for Romney?
I agree with Ray that Ron Paul and Obama will draw many inde’s. But I also expect that McCain, Romney, Rudy, Huck, Hillary, and Edwards will each peel away a few independants too. I dont see anyone getting a substansial amount. I expect Romney to poll about 6% more than Mccain among the GOP, and win by about 3-4% overall.
January 1st, 2008 at 10:41 pm
McCain should have a new campaign theme song:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVpvT8CHsOw&feature=related
January 1st, 2008 at 10:42 pm
I agree that Ron Paul can take 3rd in NH, and if he does that then its a huge embaressment for the likes of Giuliani who finish below him.
Rudy can’t finish 4th in both states and expect to hold strong Florida numbers. He’s in real strife…
January 1st, 2008 at 10:43 pm
husky – send me an email rbrun79 at gmail dot com … I don’t feel like spilling all of the Governor’s NH secrets on this forum. I’m heading to bed now but spending 6 hours in the Raleigh/Durham Airport tomorrow where I will be able to answer your email.
January 1st, 2008 at 10:47 pm
I’m another NH resident and I agree with RayinNH. A lot has changed in NH’s political landscape over the last 8 years.
Here’s a link that explains some of the demographic changes. 23% of the voting population in NH was not here in 2000.
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2007/12/18/the_new_new_hampshire_voter.html
Also, there is a lot of anti-war sentiment among independents here and that will affect McCain’s ability to draw their votes. I expect lots of 2000 McCain voters now identify as Democrats.
January 1st, 2008 at 10:49 pm
Also, it should be mentioned that Gov. Romney is not President Bush. Gov. Romney is the type of conservative that independent northerners can more easily digest. Sen. McCain’s lead in that group probably won’t be as high.
January 1st, 2008 at 10:52 pm
Mccain has no shot of beating rudy. While Romney is my first choice, should he fall my vote flips to Rudy. I disagree with a lot of his positions and his personal life, but unlike Mccain he hasn’t run around for years telling me to go pleasure myself.
January 1st, 2008 at 10:52 pm
Romney doesn’t have a southern accent, for starters…
January 1st, 2008 at 10:52 pm
husky and JayPe that CNN link is tricky because it contains separate sections for registered Republicans and Independents and those who identified themselves as Republicans and Independents. McCain won registered Republicans 44-35 but Bush won the smaller subset of those who identified themselves as Republicans 41-38.
January 1st, 2008 at 10:56 pm
Don’t miss today’s UL Mitt-hit. I dislike Romney but this relentless attack is unfair, if not an illegal campaign contribution.
http://www.unionleader.com/article.aspx?headline=Mitt%27s+flips%3a+Why+they+matter&articleId=cc82f05b-2160-4d2f-aab9-8072e6fb373e
January 1st, 2008 at 11:00 pm
Kevin – we should chat some time about NH politics. Thank you for confirming my assertions.
January 1st, 2008 at 11:01 pm
Intersting internal from today’s NH poll:
Q23. Finally, regardless of whom you currently support, who do you believe will be the next President of the United States?
N= 600 100%
Hillary Clinton ………………………….. 01 ( 1/133) 148 25%
Mitt Romney ……………………………… 04 85 14%
Barack Obama …………………………….. 02 73 12%
John McCain ……………………………… 06 56 9%
Rudy Giuliani ……………………………. 05 35 6%
John Edwards …………………………….. 03 18 3%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………. 07 11 2%
January 1st, 2008 at 11:04 pm
On #31. Wow – that’s a very good description of why I don’t like Romney. I don’t believe he’s a liberal, I believe he’s a good man. But I also believe he does not have political conviction or that he’s as conservative as he claims.
January 1st, 2008 at 11:19 pm
I don’t think someone can be “good” if they are willing to be deceitful for personal gain.
January 1st, 2008 at 11:22 pm
New 527 has a devastating attack on Huckabee to run in South Carolina.
http://www.victimsvoice527.com
Contribute today to end the revolving door for criminals Huckabee let go.
January 1st, 2008 at 11:28 pm
This post should be dubbed the “Magic McCain Theoryâ€.
January 1st, 2008 at 11:31 pm
bjalder – no doubt – I need to go cook up some magic brownies so I can follow this spin
January 1st, 2008 at 11:55 pm
All independents who tilt even marginally to the left in New Hampshire will vote in the Democrat primary. Those who vote in the Republican primary will tilt toward Romney, as any number of New Hampshire polls have previously indicated. Romney’s organization in the state is awesome, and combined with a Mitt win in Iowa, which is now officially probable, McCain will post-maturely retire after the NH primary.
January 2nd, 2008 at 12:08 am
This is a stupid post…Mitt Romney is not George Bush, and this is 2008 not 2000. And 2000 was when there was no one to split the independent vote, furthermore, it was before voted against the Bush tax cuts, TWICE, and before his amnesty bill and McCain-Feingold. So stop with the comparisons, cause they are NOT comparable.
January 2nd, 2008 at 12:31 am
i would have to agree to some degree. things are looking up for mccain.
I would say romney and mccain have the best shot at this point.
January 2nd, 2008 at 12:58 am
Say goodnight, Mitt.
January 2nd, 2008 at 4:24 am
Paul S,
I like “goodnight President Romney” better…