The GOP race for 2008 is beginning to resemble the Democratic race for 2004 more every day. And McCain appears to be ably filling the Kerry role:
David E. Johnson, CEO of Strategic Vision polling company is predicting the Republican primary will come down to a two-man race between John McCain and Mitt Romney.
“We’re seeing trendlines in the direction of Romney and McCain,” he just said.
He says that last cycle his organization did see late trendlines breaking towards Kerry and Edwards, who finished first and second in Iowa.
He also notes that we could, God forbid, still see an event between now and Florida that reorients the election towards terrorism, national security, and homeland security, which would help Giuliani, he contends.
“If I were to bet right now, I would be putting my money on John McCain,” says Johnson, who worked on Bob Dole’s 1988 campaign.
I’ve seen the analogy with ’04 for awhile now, but I wanted to give Rudy a shot to prove me wrong and make a comeback before I presented the analogy to the world. As Kavon noted in his post today on the state of the race, Rudy is still a very viable candidate, and his late-state strategy is not outside of the realm of possibilities. That said, the aforementioned quote makes it clear just where the momentum currently lies.
McCain and Romney, as the two original frontrunners and establishment candidates of the field, are playing the parts of Kerry and Gephardt from four years ago. Like Kerry, McCain started off strong but faded along the way, surpassed by candidates that seemed far more enticing to the base. Romney, like Gephardt, self-inflicted many of his wounds by making Iowa a must-win state, a move that became folly after a contender emerged who had a real shot at taking the caucus. Huckabee is this year’s Howard Dean: the upstart insurgent who speaks to a very specific portion of the party base, but who is anathema to the establishment, which sees the insurgent as an easy kill in the general. Like Dean, Huckabee has put his chips on Iowa, and the Huckabee/Romney murder-suicide that is currently taking place is so much nostalgia to political junkies who remember the result of the Dean/Gephardt war of ’04.
In this analogy, Rudy plays the role of Joe Lieberman. Like Joe, Rudy came out of the gate as an instant frontrunner due to a pre-existing claim to the throne as the hero of 9/11 (Joe’s claim, of course, being his position on a previous national ticket). But Joementum was short-lived after Democrats began to intuit that Lieberman was something other than a leftist on defense. Rudy, by not coming out as a pro-choice/anti-Roe candidate, and by tirelessly repeating the mantra that opposition to abortion is tantamount to locking up an entire generation of women and throwing away the key, nixed what would’ve been an easy run to the nomination and created a vacuum in the race by Spring of 2007, one that was initially supposed to be filled by Fred Thompson. But Fred, like Wes Clark, turned out to be a dud; his heart was never in the race, and it showed early and often.
The result: days before Iowa and the race lacks a frontrunner. Democrats faced the same situation in 2004. That year, the Democratic base began by supporting Kerry and Gephardt, but found them to be a bore. The base then moved on to Lieberman, whose name they recognized, but soon found his positions on key issues untenable. Then it was onto Wes Clark, until it became clear that he wasn’t ready for prime time. Then onto the firebrand, Howard Dean! Well, until he proved that he was unelectable by blowing up on national television. At that point, they couldn’t go back to Gephardt, not after the way he had attacked their wonder boy, Dean. True, Dean was quite mad, but ex-Deaniacs weren’t going to reward Gephardt for telling them that. The only one left standing, and the nominee by default, was good, old, boring, reliable John Kerry.
This year, the very same dynamics can be found on the GOP side. This year began with a McCain/Romney race for the nomination. But McCain was old and boring, and Romney was a bit too slick. Then Rudy jumped in, the hero of 9/11! Republicans rushed to him, but were taken aback when Rudy’s positions on issues like abortion seemed a bridge too far for most conservatives. Then came Fred, who had position papers that made the Reagan Coalition swoon. But it soon became clear that Fred didn’t really want to run for president, he instead wanted to meander for president. Disillusioned again, the base became interested in Huckabee. He was like Fred, but actually seemed youthful and energetic! But it soon became clear that Huckabee would scare away independents with his past quotes on social issues and religion, and would split the base because of his fiscal and defense views. Deciding that Huck is unelectable, the GOP base finds itself back at the McCain/Romney fork in the road. But like Gephardt, Romney has been tainted by his relentless attacks on Huck. The only man left standing, and the likely 2008 Republican nominee, is good, old, trusty John McCain.
December 31st, 2007 at 6:48 pm
How sad.
McCain, the calumniator of the Constitution.
McCain wins the Republican nomination and this country goes under.
December 31st, 2007 at 6:55 pm
I agree with a lot of the 2004 comparisons to this race. That said, I’m not sure whether McCain is playing the role of John Kerry or Howard Dean. I personally doubt that McCain will have a “Deam scream” moment (though he has done so in the past by dropping the F-bomb on John Cornyn on the Senate floor), but I do expect that, if McCain becomes a frontrunner by winning NH, there will be a LOT of conservative Republicans who just won’t have the stomach to pull the lever for him. That would leave either Rudy or Romney as the “stop McCain” candidate.
That said, I’mnot willing to call McCain a frontrunner until he wins NH. I think Romney has a very strong chance of winning that primary, and the McCain candidacy will implode if that happens.
December 31st, 2007 at 6:55 pm
Team Rudy strategy memo:
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/12/31/giuliani-looking-good/
I’m hitting the road for the holiday. Happy New Year, all!
December 31st, 2007 at 6:57 pm
For McCain to fill the Kerry role he would have to win Iowa.
December 31st, 2007 at 7:08 pm
McCain/Palin!
December 31st, 2007 at 7:10 pm
#5
Thanks
December 31st, 2007 at 7:17 pm
Interesting theory. I don’t buy it, however. For one thing, the 2004 Democratic primary was not anywhere near as close as the 2008 Republican primary is. For another, you don’t have anyone in the role of Edwards, who thanks to a strong IA and a SC victory was the only competitor to Kerry midway through the race. But I think the most important thing is that you are overly critical of Romney’s role. On RCP, Romney is:
behind 5.2% nationally
up 0.4% in IA
up 5.6% in NH
up 1% in MI
tied for the lead in NV
down 6.5% in SC
down 6.3% in FL
Compare this to:
Huckabee down 20.8% in NH
McCain down 16.2% in IA, 16.4% in NV, 12.8% in SC
Giuliani down 22% in IA, 18.6% in NH
Thompson down 17% in IA, 28% in NH, etc.
Note that this is well after Romney ran his contrast ads against Huckabee. I can think of four or five Republicans candidates who would love to be “tainted by [their] reckless attacks” like Romney has.
The reality of this race is that Romney is positioned to sweep every state before Feb. 5th. All of the McCain predictions seem to rest on the idea that Republicans as a whole will look at Romney and say, “No thanks,” but the evidence is just the opposite. He is the only candidate that can turn a five-way-toss-up into an uncontested sweep in the space of one month.
December 31st, 2007 at 7:23 pm
I think it might actually be coming down to a Giuliani vs. Paul showdown on 2/5. Huckabee and McCain are likely to sink Romney, but neither Huck nor McCain are acceptable to fi-cons/1789-cons. Meanwhile, Rudy is set to do well on 2/5 and Paul will have ridiculous amounts of money to advertise in those states.
December 31st, 2007 at 7:39 pm
Umm, #8, Josiah,
Have you been paying attention to the news today?
December 31st, 2007 at 7:43 pm
This is insane. If Romney wins in Iowa, and it looks like he will, he will win New Hampshire. He has a lead there and a superior organization. Given a bump from the Iowa win, there’s no way he loses NH. The most recent polls out of Michigan and Nevada show small leads for Mitt. If Mitt wins Iowa, he wins January.
December 31st, 2007 at 7:46 pm
#7
DaveG tends to be overly critical of Romney
December 31st, 2007 at 7:50 pm
#9 Irish Right,
I’m not so sure that the crap Huckabee pulled today will have that big of an effect on Huck’s committed evangelical supporters in Iowa, to be honest. A lot of my family lives out there, and they’re not too phased by this–they’re still planning on caucusing for Huck. Crosstabs from almost all polls show that Romney already has the softest support of any candidate. If Huck wins Iowa, which he still very well may, Romney may be seriously damaged, going into NH. If McCain outperforms expectations in Iowa, he could probably expect a significant boost. Some polls already show McCain neck in neck with Romney in NH and a Huck win with a McCain surprise in Iowa might turn NH into a McCain victory. That would probably force Romney out of the race, but a lot of scrutiny is going to be turned onto Huck and McCain’s record in that case, and they’re both going to go down quickly. Meanwhile, no matter what happens in the early states, big delegate states like New York aren’t going to be torn away from Rudy very easily, and Ron Paul is going to have insane amounts of money to spend on the early states. I think we might be in for a very interesting surprise. Of course, I could always be wrong, but I think there’s interesting dynamic happening here that leads me to lean toward a Rudy/Paul race.
December 31st, 2007 at 7:52 pm
“Ron Paul is going to have insane amounts of money to spend on the 2/5 states”* rather
December 31st, 2007 at 8:00 pm
#12: “Meanwhile, no matter what happens in the early states, big delegate states like New York aren’t going to be torn away from Rudy very easily”
I wonder about this. Certainly I think Rudy will win his home states, simply because they are his home states. But for a state like California, I have to wonder if Giuliani will become Who?liani. Will anyone buy the “I only lost IA, NH, MI, NV, and SC because I wasn’t trying to win.”? And, of course, don’t forget FL. There has been lots of talk about the expectations game in IA (and NH, to a lesser extent), but for Rudy, FL is a must win. And even now Giuliani’s lead in FL is weak. How well will it hold up against a candidate with endorsements and money from earlier wins?
December 31st, 2007 at 8:04 pm
It’s been a long time since I believed that the thrust of DaveG’s posts were what he actually believed, rather than what he hoped for.
A few weeks from now we might just hear him say that he thought Romney would win it, but wanted to give McCain (his #2 choice) a chance to prove him wrong before he presented his prediction to the world.
December 31st, 2007 at 8:05 pm
I think that McCain will likely sink due to his opposition of waterboarding and enhanced interrogation techniques.
December 31st, 2007 at 8:37 pm
Which makes him so unsuited for the job of torturer in-chief.
December 31st, 2007 at 8:43 pm
I’m still really concerned over the prospect of a candidate “buying†the nomination. That’s how Mitt Romney’s campaign strikes me. I believe he has the best chance, statistically at this point, of clinching the delegates – but how he does it still concerns me. That said, if he is the nominee I would fully support him. I’m very wary of both Huckabee and McCain.
December 31st, 2007 at 9:18 pm
people are forgetting how bad conservative in the gop hate mccain. he didn’t even show up to cpac for heavens sake. yeah, so new hampshire likes him, he has a ceiling that he cannot break. mccain won’t win.
January 1st, 2008 at 12:13 pm
I am pulling for McCain. The thing I see happening is Huck wins Iowa which helps McCain in NH. Then it is Huck vs. McCain in South Carolina… This is were we finally have a positive campaign with out Mitt.