- Mike Huckabee 32% (29%)
- Mitt Romney 26% (24%)
- John McCain 13% (7%)
- Ron Paul 9% (7%)
- Fred Thompson 9% (9%)
- Rudy Giuliani 5% (13%)
- Duncan Hunter 1% (1%)
- Not sure/Uncommitted 4% (4%)
On the Democratic side, Barack Obama was the choice of 32 percent of likely Democratic caucus goers, up from 28 percent in the Register’s last poll in late November, while Hillary Clinton held steady at 25 percent and John Edwards was virtually unchanged at 24 percent.
Survey of 800 likely Republican caucus participants was conducted December 27-30. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 25-28 are in parentheses.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:03 pm
Good news for my man mccain. A huck win and him in third would be good good news.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:03 pm
Last time around I believe that this poll was on for who won the primary. I guess we’ll see if history repeats itself.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:03 pm
Too bad the game changed this morning.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:04 pm
If this is accurate:
Romney will win. Huck’s meltdown today was at least 5%, which will knock him down far enough for Romney’s organization to overcome. McCain is still too far behind to get 2nd, but will likely get 3rd assuming it’s true that Thompson has “no traction”.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:04 pm
Well there’s some good news.
I know. I know. Huckabee’s pulled ad will cost him 80% because everyone in Iowa was waiting for that press conference with baited breath.
You know, this reminds me of all the talk over Romney not hiring Muslims for cabinet level positions because there aren’t enough of them to justify it.
How much do we talk about that anymore?
Tempest in a teapot. The voters will be looking for authenticity Thursday, and it ain’t Slick Mitt!
December 31st, 2007 at 10:05 pm
Whew! I think Huckabee survives.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:05 pm
er, “bated breath”
December 31st, 2007 at 10:05 pm
Almost as if Rudy told his people to go vote for Huckabee in order to keep himself alive.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:06 pm
But I’ll throw this out there for everyone to stew on: I predict that if these numbers hold, McCain will also win NH – and by a fairly substantial margin.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:06 pm
How much do we talk about that anymore?
I don’t know, but if you beat the drum enough we might change topics from hucks 123rd cheap stunt of the month.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:06 pm
Illinois,
Yes, all those legions of evangelicals that are at Rudy’s beck and call.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:07 pm
On #9. I agree but he’ll win by 5-10%, not sure if you consider that substantial.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:08 pm
Jason,
“I don’t know, but if you beat the drum enough we might change topics from hucks 123rd cheap stunt of the month.”
That’s rich. Do you know why none of the other candidates like Mitt!?
December 31st, 2007 at 10:08 pm
The Dem race got even more interesting too with their poll. Obama widened his lead, and Clinton and Edwards are virtually tied. Makes for an interesting run to New Hampshire for them too.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:08 pm
Every time Romney opens his mouth to criticize other candidates’ records on any given issue where Romney recently agreed with said candidate is a cheap stunt.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:08 pm
Hang on…
Isn’t that higher than normal? That could be the source of Huck’s lead.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:09 pm
If Mitt loses Thursday, it will be because all of his millions couldn’t fool the Religious Right into believing that he is something he is not.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:09 pm
12,
Anything more than 5% is substantial. Inside of that, and I think it’s close enough for the second place finisher to claim a “moral victory”.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:09 pm
I suspect that if a poll was taken this evening, we’d be looking at Huck 26, Mitt 26, McCain 14, Thompson 14.
Final results; Romney 32, Huckabee 19, Thompson 17, McCain 15.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:09 pm
#13
Inferiority complex.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:10 pm
Don’t underestimate Romney’s GOTV machine. That will play a big factor here and will take the edge off that Huckabee has. Also, if I’m an Iowan who is weary of attack ads, then I think this morning’s stunt was the ultimate political cheap stunt/attack ad package. I see a lot of people calling this the last straw in a long line of straws.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:11 pm
“You know, this reminds me of all the talk over Romney not hiring Muslims for cabinet level positions because there aren’t enough of them to justify it.”
Yea, the only difference is that was weeks ago, and there are only 2 more days til votes are cast. This poll means nothing in light of the gaffe today by Huckabee. I have maintained that if Huck was within 5 points going into the caucus, Romney would win due to his organization there in IA. The gaffe this morning brings them to at least dead even, and Romney wins IA.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:11 pm
#20 hahaha
December 31st, 2007 at 10:12 pm
Ron Paul’s people will be undersampled. He could get 3rd.
I still think it will be a squeaker between Romney and Huckabee (those hard-core Huck fans will be hard to sway no matter what . . . they’ve bought him lock, stock, and barrel and won’t release him easily at the last minute–especially when their pastor is still pressuring them into supporting him).
December 31st, 2007 at 10:12 pm
Go Huck!!!
December 31st, 2007 at 10:12 pm
Whatever happened to that Novak-reported Poll of 15,000 sample-size showing Fred and Ron at 1% each?
December 31st, 2007 at 10:13 pm
The cross-tabs on the poll are interesting…
December 31st, 2007 at 10:14 pm
Final results: Romney 34, Huck 22, Thompson 15, McCain 14, Paul 9, Hizzoner 6
December 31st, 2007 at 10:14 pm
MWS,
Yeah, because he has been kicking their cans for 12 months. It’s really pretty basic.
I am surprised you didn’t know the answer. Wait, no I’m not.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:14 pm
Mitt was never in the trenches of the conservative movement, and he presumes to lecture the other candidates about what a real “Reagan Republican” is!
Back when Mitt could prove his bona fides in front of a hostile audience, he disavowed Reagan.
Real Reagan Republicans don’t keep their pro-abortion pledges with $50 copays for abortion. Guess who paid the balance for all those abortions?
That’s right. Mr “Three Legged Stool” broke two stools in one stroke by forcing the taxpayers of Massachusetts to pay for abortions. “Both pro-life” my @ss.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:14 pm
#22. . .The other difference is that the allegation against Romney had little crdibility and no proof to back up the accusation. Huck’s error was committed in front of a room packed with the media running cameras and tape recorders. Not as easy to get away with that one.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:14 pm
13 I’m sure you can figure that out. Every canidate (Huck-Iowa) (McCain-NH) (Thompson-SC) (Giuliani-Florida) has Romney as their number 1 rival for their “firewall state”
I’m sure you’d like to read more into it than that, but it’s that simple.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:15 pm
#13 – “Do you know why none of the other candidates like Mitt!?”
Yea because he is going to wipe the floor with them.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:15 pm
Jeff,
” they’ve bought him lock, stock, and barrel and won’t release him easily at the last minute–especially when their pastor is still pressuring them into supporting him”
Yes, Jeff, be sure to check for Christians under your bed tonight!!!
December 31st, 2007 at 10:16 pm
MWS,
Yes or no…
Were you aware that Medicaid funded abortions were mandated by the state supreme court?
Were you aware a seperate board decided the copay for the court mandated abortions after the bull was passed?
December 31st, 2007 at 10:16 pm
“Yea because he is going to wipe the floor with them.”
No, it’s because he’s a cheap shot artist and even among thieves, he has no honor.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:17 pm
Romney is DEFINITELY within the MOE in light of this screw up this morning, and I believe that anything within 5 points ahead, and Huckabee loses.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:17 pm
What is GOTV? Excuse my ignorance.
As for the poll, it is already out of date. Huck’s day today should be devastating, but considering how the Iowa electorate has held onto Huck is astoundingly insane, so maybe it won’t have an effect.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:17 pm
This poll sets expectations exactly where they should be. This is where Team Mitt goes to work with maximum adrenaline, and when he wins, it will have maximum impact. Huckabee won’t survive with all of his support intact following today’s faux pas. Mitt just hit the airwaves with his best ad and a positive, competent message. Mean Mike will suffer by comparison.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:18 pm
So, I wonder, how muck of the soft support did Huckabee loose to Mitt with tonights gaffe?
December 31st, 2007 at 10:18 pm
GOTV = Get Out The Vote
December 31st, 2007 at 10:18 pm
Swint,
Get Out The Vote.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:19 pm
I’m not sure this is as bad for Huckabee as a lot of you Romney supporters hope it is. I think every single candidate that isn’t Mitt Romney and many of their supporters feel that Mitt deserves it… and much much more.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:19 pm
MWS,
There are 2 candidates in the race who have not taken cheap shots. Thompson and Giuliani. Every other candidate has dirty hands. Huckabee’s latest screwball attempt today, McCain calling Romney a pig. Mitt is slugging it out with 2 of the dirtiest SOB’s in politics in McCain and Huckabee. Mitt will win Iowa, and will go on to win NH as well. From that point Romney steamrolls to the nomination. Watch it happen, and weep.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:20 pm
MWS – it was the Massachusetts Supreme Court that mandated the $50 co-pay. That was not Romney’s choice.
–
We need to answer this question:
what percent of Iowa caucus goers are usually fundamentalist christians?
December 31st, 2007 at 10:20 pm
Thanks Braden. The GOTV is between the ability of Iowa’s pastors to get out their congregations for Huck and Mitt’s massive organization. Should be interesting.
Happy New Year everyone, hope your 2008 only builds positively on your 2007.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:20 pm
To all you non-Iowa folks, I really believe that you underestimate the Iowa caucusgoer. They know what is and is not negative, no matter what their affiliation, and they know what Huckleberry has been trying to pull. Until the nonsense of this morning, they were overlooking the contradictions of Huckabee. After this, even many of his Evangelical supporters here won’t stomach it. While they may not switch their vote (other than a few who will go to Thompson), I believe you will see Huckabee’s “supporters” staying away in droves.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:21 pm
I am so glad that Huckabee is winning and finally we can have a conversation that constantly centers around religion. Finally!
December 31st, 2007 at 10:21 pm
This was a bigger lead for Hickabee than what I was expecting which will make Romney’s victory that much sweeter.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:21 pm
*doesnt
December 31st, 2007 at 10:21 pm
MWS said:If Mitt loses Thursday, it will be because all of his millions couldn’t fool the Religious Right into believing that he is something he is not.
THE TRUTH IS: If Huck wins thursday the Democrates will have a cake walk next november, including in the House and Senate/
and you can thank your so called religious right for it. Huck is as sleasy as the last few Hope, Arkansas polititions.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:23 pm
As I posted days ago:
“And mark my words. The Des Moines Register poll will have Huck far ahead.”
http://race42008.com/2007/12/29/poll-watch-arg-iowa-gop-caucus/
Newspapers that endorse McCain cannot be trusted. Their polls are cooked. Of the 5 polls released lately this is the only one that shows Romney falling and Huck rising. This is also the only only released by a McCain newspaper.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:23 pm
#43
Actually, Giuliani tried to use the illegal immigrant lawncare story against Gov. Romney in the YouTube debate.
We can also trace the beginnings of his campaign’s implosion to that night.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:24 pm
From the article . . .
“A 56 majority of his supporters say they definitely will attend the caucuses. That compares with 48 percent for Huckabee and 44 percent for McCain.”
That’s good news for Romney and basically makes this poll a wash.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:24 pm
Arg,
Yep. You’re right. The poll was cooked. Did you hear that 9/11 was an inside job?
December 31st, 2007 at 10:25 pm
Let’s not forget the RCP average only has Huck up 0.6 WITHOUT the screwup this morning. Romney has Iowa in the bag folks. I am calling it here. Romney wins IA. go to Google News and type Mike Huckabee. EVERY news outlet is running the story negatively for Huckabee, This is THE news story of the nest 3 days, and now that Romney is running positive ads, Huckabee is toast. Buh-Bye!
December 31st, 2007 at 10:26 pm
Is Arkansas just an idiot mill or something?
Every two decades or so, do they just crank out a dumbass to run for President that will appeal to the ignorant masses?
December 31st, 2007 at 10:27 pm
Yep. You’re right. The poll was cooked. Did you hear that 9/11 was an inside job?
LBJ plotted to have JFK killed, too.
THINK. It’s the only logical explanation.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:29 pm
#57
Oh, I’m sure he did. Oswald just beat him to it.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:29 pm
The New Years holiday is going to kill this negative story for Huckabee.
Huckabee’s turnout is going to be much better than Mitt’s.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:31 pm
Did anybody notice that Rudy is at 5%? The good news for him is that he has a lock on 6th place. At the rate he’s falling in New Hampshire, he will probably finish 5th or 6th. Still, Kavon says that we can take Rudy staying in the race through February 5th to the bank. I hope not….for Rudy’s sake. He’ll lose his Intrade support long before then. By February 5th, he might even lose New York and New Jersey.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:34 pm
#59 – “The New Years holiday is going to kill this negative story for Huckabee.”
So THAT’s what wishful thinking sounds like!!
December 31st, 2007 at 10:37 pm
Intrade update:
GOP Nominee
Giuliani – 27.7
Romney – 26.3
FWIW
December 31st, 2007 at 10:37 pm
I was hoping the Hucksters supporters were smarter than this….still think Mitt wins, but its gonna be tough.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:37 pm
DOES ANYBODY KNOW WHAT % OF IOWA CAUCUS-GOERS ARE USUALLY “FUNDAMENTALIST CHRISTIANS”???
December 31st, 2007 at 10:37 pm
Dave,
That’s not news. Rudy came in at 5% in the new Mason-Dixon poll, and finished with just four percent in the newly-released Strategic Vision poll.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:39 pm
62. Holy cow. I don’t put a lot of weight in Intrade, but still, that’s notable.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:41 pm
#61 – LOL!
December 31st, 2007 at 10:41 pm
My gut feeling tells me Mitt will now swap places with Huck for the actual caucus figure. The headlines will say Mitt spent his estimated 9 million bucks wisely to get circa 30,000 votes. The press will speak long and verbosely about how wise Mitt was to finance his campaign by as much as a third, and speculation will run wild for days about how much of Mitt’s finances were from his own pockets.
On the other hand, maybe it was just something I ate…
December 31st, 2007 at 10:43 pm
Aron,
The point is that the power of momentum is such that Rudy is likely to be in single digits within a week following New Hampshire. It will get embarrassing.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:47 pm
Not sure what to make of these numbers with such a difference between them and the MSNBC poll. They were compiled over almost the same time period, so…
http://www.political-buzz.com/
December 31st, 2007 at 10:48 pm
http://www.cnn.com/POLITICS/index.html
December 31st, 2007 at 10:52 pm
IA is just too close to call. We really won’t know until Thurs night/Fri morning the actual results. Huckabee turnout could/could not be a factor. Same for Ron Paul for that matter. I think it’s safe to say that Romney will do no worse than second and stands a good chance of pulling out a win.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:54 pm
#71
CNN is one of the most liberal outlets alive. They are shaking in their boots with the prospect of having to face Romney in the general election. They are hoping Huckabee gets the nomination so that they can wipe the floor with him in the general election. I can hear it now, “Mike Huckabee voted FOR the attack ad, before he voted AGAINST it.” The Huckabee camp is crapping their pants right now, in light of the screwup this morning, and they are praying people in Iowa are too stupid to see Huckabee for the slimeball that he is.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:57 pm
#73
Romney would be the republicans John Kerry……and that is not what I call electable. Huckabee making the ad and deciding not to run it shows one thing. It shows that he is going to play fair even though he has the ability to fight back at Romney. Romney has not played it fair in Iowa OR New Hampshire for that matter. Huckabee is not a desperate man, unlike someone else….
December 31st, 2007 at 10:57 pm
My talkative gut says that the end tally for a Mitt win will herald the fact that he will have spent around 300 dollars per vote. Others will speculate whether 90, 100, or even 150 bucks of that came from the boys’ future inheritance. CNBC will do shows on how to buy the nomination in modern America. Start by choosing to be born the son of a governor or CEO who sends you to private school. Then plan your finances so as to move from privilege to power. In the end, you can lend your campaign your own money. And if you don’t win, you can allow your campaign to go bust and write off your bad loans to it on your taxes. Loss = nothing. Ergo, nothing gained, nothing ventured, nothing lost: Win-win.
I can hardly wait for Mitt’s win to inspire the talking heads to talk and for the wags to wag.
December 31st, 2007 at 10:58 pm
Serious question. What if Huckabee and Romney are less than a percentage apart? How does that play?
December 31st, 2007 at 11:01 pm
The fact he still has his support after about 15 ignorant statements following the Bhutto assassination tells me that these people are either a) really stupid, or b) just doing what their preacher tells them. I just hope their car doesn’t start that night!! Or they run over a nail turning around by the barn.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:01 pm
econ,
Then the media declares that it’s a draw and focuses on McCain’s “shocking” third place finish.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:05 pm
EGS,
It would keep Huck alive and ahead in South Carolina. It would help Mitt win in New Hampshire since it would exceed expectations and give him more of a bump than McCain would derive from a distant 3rd in Iowa. The race would go on. By contrast, an outright win by Mitt of any magnitude, say, more than a couple of points….and Mitt would sweep January.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:05 pm
#74
Are you that blind Ben?? Huckabee had EVERY intention of running the ad, but he lacks the manhood to put his name behind it. He “claims” that he wants to take the high road, and then shows the ad to a room full of reporters with cameras??? Whatever you are drinking tonight Ben really has screwed up your logical side of the brain. Regarding your claim that Huckabee is not desperate. LEt’s take a look at that shall we. Huckabee himself has stated that while collecting $25k per speech, if he doesn’t collect that fee, he doesn’t put food on the table for his family. What does he go back to?? Doesn’t the POTUS make like $200k per year for the rest of his life?? If anyone is desperate to land a cushy gig, it is Mr. Huckabee. Romney has the skills to go run a company for $75 million per year. Hardly a “desperate” position.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:07 pm
I was hoping that someone here could confirm or erase my suspicion, but are half of caucus goers usually fundamentalist christians?
December 31st, 2007 at 11:07 pm
77,
It’s kinda hard to call the very people who you want to vote for your candidate “stupid.”
I think they’re “smart.”
December 31st, 2007 at 11:07 pm
Ben, if you think Huck’s intentions were that pure then you are really niave. He pulled the ad and showed it to the press in an effort to try to get the press to run it for him for free! If he really meant to pull the ad, then why didn’t he take down all of the easels around the room with negative quotes about Romney? Also, if he just made the decision on the spur of the moment, then why did he call the TV stations two hours earlier to instruct them not to run the ad?
It is all a setup. He is a fraud!! Can’t you see that??
December 31st, 2007 at 11:07 pm
#76 & #78
I agree, the story coming out of IA would be a strong showing by McCain if Romney comes in a close 2nd to Huck. That would make NH a dog fight as well. To all those claiming Romney is done if he loses both states, I disagree. I think that the closeness of this race, means that Romney can stay in it all the way to Super Tuesday.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:09 pm
I have been impressed with Romney and hope that he is able to pull out a victory in Iowa–it will be very difficult for him to build the necessary momentum to defeat McCain (with his MSM allies and the Dem/Ind cross-over vote) if he doesn’t overtake Huckabee Thursday night.
I know it is a crowded field, but I must say that it concerns me that with the significant commitment of time and money Romney has made in Iowa that he has not broken through the 30% threshold at this point.
I have found Huckabee’s whining extremely annoying–he talks about beating the Clinton machine in Arkansas where “politics is a full-contact sport” yet wants to be viewed as a martyr when confronted with fairly benign comparison ads. Without offering to correct the record, Mr. Positive attacks Romney as “dishonest.”
McCain is just as bad.
I did note that at today’s news conference Huckabee expressed a desire to debate Romney one on one and that a rep from Fox News said they would host it: ROMNEY SHOULD SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITY AND SIT DOWN FACE TO FACE FOR NINETY MINUTES.
Romney would breeze to victory in Iowa, and Huckabee could go back on the speaking circuit.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:10 pm
#81 – I doubt it, but I have no idea. I don’t think it matters as this poll is already outdated due to the screwup this morning by Huckabee. This guy is a train wreck, and this is the last straw for a lot of Iowa voters.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:10 pm
Act, the population was actually defined as half fundamentalist or born-again. The second groups is usually much larger than the first.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:12 pm
#85 – “I did note that at today’s news conference Huckabee expressed a desire to debate Romney one on one and that a rep from Fox News said they would host it: ROMNEY SHOULD SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITY AND SIT DOWN FACE TO FACE FOR NINETY MINUTES. Romney would breeze to victory in Iowa, and Huckabee could go back on the speaking circuit.”
Are you serious?? I sure hope so. Romney would wipe the floor with Huckabee. I sure hope that happens.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:14 pm
As usual, Jon Martin is spot-on in his post-poll analysis:
“The worst news of all in the survey, however, may come for Fred Thompson. Despite going “all in” to Iowa and devoting all of his time and dwindling resources to the state, he’s now fallen behind John McCain who has put comparably little effort into the caucuses, focusing his time and money on New Hampshire.
A fourth-place finish here for Thompson would likely end his White House bid. A surprise third-place showing for McCain, especially if coupled with a Romney loss here, would provide him a nice boost just five days before voting takes place in the Granite State, where he and Romney are engaged in a dogfight. ”
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1207/DMR_poll_analysis_Huck_hanging_on_Fred_fading_McCain_rising.html
December 31st, 2007 at 11:19 pm
I think this Yahoo article sums it up nicely.
“If he loses Iowa’s caucuses, New Year’s Eve will forever mark the day Huckabee blew it — the day a crowd stopped laughing with the witty Republican and laughed at him.”
Here is the link,
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071231/ap_po/huckabee_the_parodox
December 31st, 2007 at 11:22 pm
well, half of likely Caucus goers say they might change their minds – lets hope the Romney supporters at the caucus know how to convince people.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:24 pm
Jared,
I think you’ve official become the smoke blower of this site. You blow more smoke than anyone.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:25 pm
Most polls have the evangelical christian figure at 35-40%. This poll with 50% in that category is higher than the other ones that I have seen. However, the Mason-Dixon poll where Romney was ahead 27-23% had the evangelicals in the high forties. The real interesting part is that 56% of those supporting Romney would definitely attend the caucases while 48% of those for Huck would attend caucases. That’s a 15.36 factor for Huck and a 14.56 factor for Romney. A virtual tie when you consider expected turnout from these 800 people.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:27 pm
Greg, this poll doesn’t identify Evangelicals.
Suprisingly many times “born-agains” aren’t Evangelical or even Protestant.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:28 pm
#92 – Mark when you post a credible comment. Your opinion will matter.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:30 pm
Mitt has most certainly won this one. Anything short of ten points over his nearest rival will be an obvious disaster. And we all know that won’t happen.
When you spend up to three million out of your own pocket and lay out a grand total of almost nine million to get, er — what were they called in #77? — some 30,000 idiots out to vote for you to win Iowa, well, if that doesn’t end in a ten-point margin, you really must have some serious “issues” stalling you out.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:30 pm
This poll is not as bad for Romney when you look at the potential turnout. If today’s Huckabsut moment has even a small effect on Huckabee, it could be huge in the outcome. With a race this tight, a 1% defection from Huckabee to Romney (a 2% swing) could be huge. I think today’s antics made Huckabee look very amateur. It’s kind of like a kid running for president of his high school class. I’m no expert, but I think it will have a definite effect. Romney still needs to help himself by getting some more positive ads out while the club for groeth and the msm continue to tear into Huck these last few days.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:31 pm
I’m praying something about this poll is screwed up. Romney needs to be closer than 6% on Caucus night to win – and I don’t like the idea of relying on the Iowa media to trash Huck over this ad thing to get him there.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:31 pm
Honestly, if you were an independent in New Hampshire and could vote in either race in the primaries, which one do you think your vote would count more in at this point?
http://www.pollster.com/08-NH-Rep-Pres-Primary.php
http://www.pollster.com/08-NH-Dem-Pres-Primary.php
December 31st, 2007 at 11:31 pm
Their minds are pretty much going to need to be changed before the caucus. It works differently for the Republicans. You walk in, sign up, listen to prepared statements from each campaign, write down your candidate and hand it in. That’s it. After that, the votes are counted and called in. While you can certainly talk up your candidate informally, prior to the caucus, there isn’t any reshuffling like the Dems do. If you live in Iowa, look for a plethora of commercials between now and Thursday.
I’m betting that Huckabee trots out a negative ad on Wednesday as a last gasp.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:32 pm
The problem is that Huckabee will spend the next 2-3 days explaining what happened today while Romney is out touting his economic prowess.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:33 pm
Thanks Irish Right, but I’d like to point out (as I understand it) you basically have to show up at a prescribed time rather than any part of the day. So it’s still more difficult to get people there.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:34 pm
100: That’s true. Huck really goofed everywhere. I think expectations should be brought down for Huck and up for Mitt another ten or so points each.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:34 pm
act-blog:
If you look at the internals, this poll is not a bad one for Romney, and it’s an outlier from the past few polls out there. Romney’s people are more likely to show up. You figure in the turnout as reported by this poll, and the difference is less than 1%.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:34 pm
ACT, I don’t think you have to worry about the numbers being closer before the caucuses. The Romney internals show a different picture even than this, and that was before the Huckaplosion today.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:35 pm
Here is the scary part. The Huck supporters on here don’t seem to have shifted. I would ask that anyone who was a Huckabee supporter yesterday, and not tonight please say so. That will give us all a feel for whether or not that will help to those not quite so into all this.
I would love to see Mitt and Huck debate for 1.5 hours. 2 minutes alternating, monitor just does the stop watch, and the go at it. oh, and no notes! Mitt would rip him apart, and he’d leave like a sulking dog with his tail between his legs. This guy is a fraud if I’ve ever seen one.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:35 pm
do we know if there will be anymore polls out before the Caucus?
December 31st, 2007 at 11:36 pm
Irish Right, the Romney internals show a virtual tie (I have a friend working for the campaign in Iowa). They call over 2,000 likely caucas goers each week.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:36 pm
“The Romney internals show a different picture even than this, and that was before the Huckaplosion today.”
anything else you can tell us?
December 31st, 2007 at 11:37 pm
You’re absolutely correct, bjalder. You need to be there by 7. Period.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:38 pm
I don’t buy it. Romney’s support is soft. Even Fred is talking about overcomming Mitt and to come in 2nd.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:39 pm
Yup, those are the numbers I hear, Greg.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:39 pm
The Romney people also told their strongest supporters in Iowa a couple of weeks ago that they could take a break from participating in anymore polls. Just a way of shifting the expectations game. I don’t know how much this affects any particular poll, but it’s a unique strategy.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:39 pm
#106 – The people who post on this site are hardly an indicator of the general public. There is not a chance in hell that anyone from this site will switch horses. There may be a few who haven’t really supported someone wholeheartedly that might change as a result of the Huckabee gaffe to day, but by and large most of the people here have already made there decision, and are sticking to it.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:40 pm
Wow, the Intrade “closing” prices for IA just went 45 for Huck, 50 for Mitt (“last” prices were 50 even).
The Huck-a-bust is in full swing.
Mark… my… WORDS!!
December 31st, 2007 at 11:41 pm
#111 – “Even Fred is talking about overcomming Mitt and to come in 2nd.”
Is this the same Fred who has slept through most of the campaign? Just checking.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:41 pm
Having a little too much New Years booze, Mark?
You are sounding like Abe.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:44 pm
I think the biggest thing that today’s antics will do is depress turnout for Huckabee. He is depending on a lot of first-time caucus voters. If they get disappointed in the least, they just won’t show. You have to be pretty determined to get out and vote for the first time. If you haven’t previously registered and expect to do so on site, the line is usually quite long to do so, and you need to arrive early.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:45 pm
Gotta have some online fun at this late hour, ACT.
Time to light the old Roman candles, boys. Cheers to a good start for everyone!
See you next year!
December 31st, 2007 at 11:46 pm
Act, I have seen the Evangelical Christian Caucus goer number at 35%. Definitely not 50%. Yes, I think DMR polls are a bit shewed in Huckabee’s direction. If we cut 10% off to get the Christian number down to 40%, we are looking at an increase of about 3 points. It would be Huckabee’s 29 vs Mitt’s 26, well within the MoE.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:50 pm
that was my thinking…
I’ve seen the 30-40% number alot – far from the 50% number in the DMR poll.
Good news for Romney.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:53 pm
SGS, this poll doesn’t measure Evangelical Christians. This poll measures born-again Christians. It’s apples and oranges bud.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:59 pm
HAPPY NEW YEAR — 2008 !!!!!!!!!!!
January 1st, 2008 at 12:01 am
3 more hours here pal
January 1st, 2008 at 12:02 am
And I’m not going to be sitting at a computer when it comes
January 1st, 2008 at 12:38 am
Jared,
The worst of my posts have more substance than the best of yours… sorry to break it to you.
January 1st, 2008 at 12:45 am
*decrease, not increase…
And now, Joe Carter has left Huckabee’s team, and he was one who has been sweeping behind Huck-orse the whole trip of the past three weeks. There won’t be anyone else who can step in and do as well at such a short notice.
January 1st, 2008 at 12:55 am
ESG, and…? I think some of us would appreciate some education on why evangelicals are not the only group MSM has been referring to as the fundamental Christians the past few years? Who else is there? This must be somewhat a sore button for you, because normally, you would be explaining what you think a bit more than you did here. Thanks.
January 1st, 2008 at 1:03 am
I was not clear about Joe Carter’s department. Huckabee may “survive” Iowa, but he definitely cannot continue to have the momentum, not when he continue to make mistakes after Iowa like he did the past few weeks, especially when he does not have someone to clean up after him like Joe did. A vote for Huckabee in Iowa is a wasted vote, period!
January 1st, 2008 at 1:03 am
Happy new year all (ok, I’ve got an hour left, but for those of you on Eastern and Central time).
Sorry to get on this poll so late in teh thread, but if this poll is true, then it could be part of the perfect storm to create chaos in the primary (leading to a McCain or Giuliani nomination). If Huckabee tanks after today’s negative-ad-aborted-launch, he may just barely eke out a win in IA before imploding…striking a blow to Romney as his swan song. If McCain then wins NH (or comes close), all bets are off going into Florida and Feb. 5.
January 1st, 2008 at 1:14 am
Are we sure we want McCain as our nominee? I mean, lest we forgot who McCain has become since 2000, here are some of his voting actions. He has been swining away from our side across the asile, near to the edge.
January 1st, 2008 at 1:16 am
#127 – Glad to see that your myopia doesn’t only apply to the support of your candidate. Happy New Year to you, and you might want to get that checked. You couldn’t tell a post with substance if it jumped up and bit you on the butt!
January 1st, 2008 at 1:18 am
SGS, the poll asked for “Fundamentalist or Born-Again Christians”
There are fundamentalist Catholics in Iowa (known as ultramontane). There are some fundamentalist Lutherans in Iowa (hardly an Evangelical group). Also some Catholics and Mainline Protestants consider themselves born-again.
In past polls we’ve seen the same pattern where Evangelicals usually are ~35-40% while questions asking for “Born-Agains” are 50%.
Most of the difference in Iowa ought to be Catholics and Lutherans.
January 1st, 2008 at 1:20 am
I don’t know if anyone picked this up, and I am not sure what impact it will have. But a good addition to Romney’s team. I wonder if this will sway Pat Buchanan towards Romney.
http://www.mittromney.com/News/Press-Releases/Endorsement_Buchanan
January 1st, 2008 at 1:50 am
I personally think this is a lovely poll for Romney. It keeps the expectations on Huck despite the fact that his campaign is imploding. I’ll need to see how this plays in the media over the next couple of days, but I suspect Mitt wins Iowa, and manages to beat the expectations game.
January 1st, 2008 at 2:09 am
[...] and against under-funded and un-organized rivals, will be the real story coming out of the Iowa. MarkG of race42008.com makes the case tongue-in-cheek: My gut feeling tells me Mitt will now swap places with Huck for the [...]
January 1st, 2008 at 7:46 am
Re # 135 The WSJ reported at the time of Tancredo’s endorsement that Bay Buchanan, as a mormon, had helped sway Tancredo to Romney. I’ve believed for a while now that Pat Buchanan has been defending Romney for this same reason and wondered why MSNBC never felt compelled to reveal this connection.
Too much is being made of the pulled ad. Perhaps it was a stunt, but the coverage is not favorable to Romney because the subtext is Huckabee’s message that Romney is too dishonest to be president. McCain is basically saying the same thing in NH. If Romney does survive IA and NH, lack of honesty and integrity is an awful message in SC.
January 1st, 2008 at 7:46 am
EGS,
Excellent explanation on the difference between “born again” and evangelical. Almost every evangelical will describe himself as “born again” but not every person who describes himself as “born again” is evangelical.
Hence why evangelicals make up about 40% of caucus goers historically, but this poll has about 50% “born again.”
I don’t know what the real figure should be, but 50% of Iowan Republicans being “born again” sounds about right. If anything, it might be a little low. There is also a subset of protestants who consider themselves “fundamentalist” as the poll describes, but not “evangelical.” I believe the non-denominational Churches of Christ might fit into that category. They are definitely very Republican.
January 1st, 2008 at 8:05 am
Look, to all my Romney friends, as a Rudy supporter, I say take hear t in this poll.
Rudy’s not contesting Iowa, so I don’t have a big horse in this race. I’ll be honest and tell you all, that your guy Mitt is in excellent shape to win Iowa, and win big.
1. This poll came from the ultra-liberal Des Moines Register. Last thing they want is for a strong Conservative like Romney to win Iowa. They want the Buffoon – Mike Huckabee to win. They want the weakest of all GOP contenders for the Fall. Even more, they want someone they can make fun of. And Huckabee fits the bill.
2. This poll was taken before the huge Huckabee press conference disaster. Who cares what the Iowa press is saying on the ground? Do you all honestly believe that Iowans don’t watch national broadcasts like CNN and Fox News or even YouTube?
Even with the ultra-liberal news blackout of the story by the Iowa press, the news of yesterday will get out to Iowa voters.
My prediction: Your man Mitt will win big in Iowa.
From a diehard Rudy supporter, I say a hearty congratulations.
Libertarians for Giuliani at http://www.mainstreamlibertarian.com
January 1st, 2008 at 8:09 am
There’s a new CNN IA poll (no link yet) that has Romney up 3 points, 31 to 28. Fred’s at 13 and McCain is at 10. For the record, I trust the DMR more, given their history, but I think this simply makes it clear that, even before this huge jump-the-shark moment from Huckabee, Iowa was a genuine dead heat. Maybe, Huckabee was a little ahead, but add Romney’s organization, and weigh the impact of the huckagaffe, and Romney’s in pretty decent shape.
January 1st, 2008 at 8:46 am
Let me throw something out there.
Has anyone considered that Huckabee might have done this cause he looked at his campaign budget and found that he couldn’t afford to run the ads throughout Iowa? That maybe he thought this would be a cheap way to get free media, and have the Iowa media run the ad for him?
Think about this: Huckabee needs cash to go into New Hampshire and SC immediately after Iowa. Perhaps he was looking ahead?
Like most everything in life, follow the cash. Huck tried to be too slick and save his campaign a few dollars. And it all just blew up in his face.
January 1st, 2008 at 9:33 am
This episode is just an early lesson for everyone in the race, which is that the candidates can’t simply allow attacks to go unanswered. Huckabee waited too long to respond and then panicked. I don’t think that mistake will be repeated. McCain has certainly already begun responding to Romney attacks in NH (as has NH papers). I believe Obama might be paying attention as well. Being above the fray does not work.
January 1st, 2008 at 9:43 am
I know Metro has posted this before, but how accurate has intrade been 24 hours before an election? Because we’re now at 48 hours before voting begins in Iowa, and Romney’s up 55 to 40.
January 1st, 2008 at 9:45 am
Nm, apparently I read it wrong. Huckabee is up 55 to 40.
January 1st, 2008 at 9:56 am
Mitt just completly outwitted hucky. huckabee has no idea what to do. by friday morning huckabee will be thinking, what happened?
mccain will be much harder to take out than huckabee. huckabee is a horrible campaigner. he should stick with being a pastor.
January 1st, 2008 at 10:04 am
Matthew #145: I’m glad to stir the pot using the Intrade numbers for the early states, but, to be frank, I’m rather dubious as to their predictive strength. Compared to the general election match-up, the traded volumes are very low. Also, the “last price” and “closing price” figures have undergone some rather wide swings in recent days after showing an earlier stability with Huck at 65 or so to Mitt in the 30s.
But the volumes are low enough that they could be manipulated. On the other hand, the wild swings may simply reflect the near total uncertainty in predicting this thing.