Real life commitments have kept me from writing as often as I would like to lately. However, with the bullets starting to fly on Thursday, I just cannot resist taking a break from my domestic responsibilities (there is about 5″ of snow in my driveway that needs shoveling right now) to write on how I see things standing at this time.
First off, I have to admit that I believe anything can happen in this race. We have experienced so many unforeseen twists and turns to this point that any outcome short of Duncan Hunter winning the nomination should not come as a surprise to any of us.
That is why I think of the race in terms of scenarios at this point. The most likely of which I have outlined below.
Scenario One – Rudy Wins
Or perhaps a better title would be “Chaos Theory”. This is the scenario that Team Rudy believes will actually come to pass and catapult him to the Republican nomination. In this scenario, the first five primaries are split among 3 different candidates.
Iowa: Mike Huckabee wins
New Hampshire: John McCain wins
Michigan: John McCain wins
Nevada: Mitt Romney wins
South Carolina: John McCain wins a small plurality victory over Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee
This leaves Florida as the final battle between John McCain and Rudy Giuliani on Rudy’s adopted home field. With their organizational advantage and the strong support of critical Florida constituencies of New York transplants and Cuban and Puerto Rican Communities, Team Giuliani firmly believes they will win a battle in a two-man race between him and John McCain in the Sunshine State.
Before you blow off this scenario, please remember that there is a reason why folks who have a financial stake in the outcome of the race via participation in the futures markets still have their money on Hizzoner.
Scenario Two – McCain Wins
This scenario is identical to Scenario One except for the final result in Florida, where Sen. McCain is able to overcome Rudy’s home field advantage by making an appeal to Republican voters that he is most qualified to be Commander-in-Chief and emphasizing his 20 year Pro-Life voting record.
Scenario Three – Mitt Wins
This is perhaps the easiest and most straightforward scenario for most people to envision. However, it is also the one in which events that we cannot envision at this time having the greatest chance of derailing the whole thing before actually coming to fruition.
Simply put, Mitt wins Iowa and New Hampshire, which springboards him to victory in Michigan and South Carolina. By the time we get to Florida, no one has won a primary besides for Gov. Romney. In the end, Mittmentum is just too much for Hizzoner to overcome.
Scenario Four – Huckabee Wins
This one is also fairly straightforward to imagine:
Iowa: Mike Huckabee wins
New Hampshire: John McCain wins.
Michigan: John McCain wins.
Nevada: Mitt Romney wins.
South Carolina: Mike Huckabee wins
Florida: Mike Huckabee wins.
Scenario Five – ??? Wins
The most intriguing scenario to speculate on is this one:
Iowa: Mitt Romney wins. FDT comes in 4th place or below.
New Hampshire: John McCain wins
Michigan: John McCain wins
Fred Thompson would likely be out of the race at this point, and Gov. Huckabee would be severely weakened by his Iowa loss. So who wins South Carolina? Fred would likely have already endorsed John McCain in this scenario. So the million dollar question is who gets the majority of Thompson and disillusioned Huckabee supporters? Your answer to that question will tell you who to believe will win the Palmetto State if this comes to pass.
In my opinion, it is difficult to imagine Fred supporters flocking to Mitt due to the bad blood that still exists over Phoneyfredgate. It is also difficult to imagine the majority of Huckabee supporters flocking to Mitt after the unpleasantness in Iowa that will inevitably occurs between the two camps. So my answer, for what it’s worth, is that John McCain wins SC in the scenario as well.
So in reviewing my five scenarios, there are a few factors that I am fairly certain you can take to the bank:
Rudy Giuliani will under no circumstances exit the race before Feb. 5th.-Of all of the factors to count on in this incredibly fluid race, count on this one.
There is no plausible scenario in which Mike Huckabee wins the Republican nomination without winning Iowa.-Huckmentum is stopped cold with a loss in the Iowa Caucuses.
If John McCain wins New Hampshire, he will win Michigan.-People always either forget or underestimate the role that Democrats and Independents voting in the New Hampshire and Michigan primaries play in determining the winner. George Bush defeated John McCain handily among Republicans in the 2000 New Hampshire Primary. However, McCain ended up with a nearly 20 point margin of victory when the Democrats and Independents were factored in. The Michigan 2008 Republican Primary IS the New Hampshire Republican Primary of 2000, only more so. There is truly very little incentive for Democrats and Independents to participate in the Democratic primary this time around.
Another factor worthy of mention here is how much of an impact a Hillary victory in the Iowa Caucuses would have on the New Hampshire Republican Primary. If Queen Hillary is wounded in Iowa, the Democratic New Hampshire Primary will be a bloodbath. It becomes a far less interesting race if Hillary wins Iowa. Inevitability will inevitably set in on the Dem side in such a scenario.
Mitt Romney needs victories in both Iowa and New Hampshire.-With McCain’s resurgence, a Romney loss in either state transfers momentum to the Arizona Senator.
Candidates dropping out after Iowa will make an enormous impact.-You can bet that at least one major candidate will drop out after Iowa. This is where endorsements that we cannot foresee at this juncture will come into play.
Mitt Romney will win Iowa.-Unless most polls on the morning of Jan. 3rd show Gov. Huckabee with more than a 5% lead on Gov. Romney, count on Mitt raising his arms in victory on caucus night. Romney’s GOTV structure in Iowa is simply too much for anyone to overcome in anything less.
Of all of my “take it to the bank” predications, this is the one of which I am the least certain. I was among the many that were completely taken aback by Gov. Huckabee’s showing at the Ames Straw Poll, and I believe that this may be indicative of a core group of support that may be difficult to poll accurately.
Sadly, Iowa may come down to a religious war of sorts, with Evangelical leaders/churches racing to organize to match Team Romney’s meticulously planned LDS GOTV effort. Unless significant progress was made in the last two-weeks on Gov. Huckabee’s behalf, Romney’s two-year head start will prove to be too much to overcome.
Well, there you have it folks. We only have a short time to wait to see just how smart I am in my analysis of this race.
December 31st, 2007 at 2:21 pm
Good analysis except for the Religious War paragraph at the end which is a little off.
December 31st, 2007 at 2:21 pm
Kavon, Thanks for your opinions on the race. I tend to agree with most of what your saying except the fact that if Thompson drops out he would endorse McCain, I hope you are wrong on that prediction.
December 31st, 2007 at 2:22 pm
We will find out soon.
The DMR poll should be out today apparently, and that should give us a clearer idea of where things stand.
interestingly, Huckabee has just announced he won’t be running the negative ad he spent time making yesterday. What gives? Why did he give up one of the last full days of campaigning to make an ad he is not running?
December 31st, 2007 at 2:22 pm
In Scenario One, I think Rudy wins NV. I think the only way Mitt loses NV is if he loses everything before it.
In Scenario Four, I think Rudy wins FL. Conservative opinion makers such as Rush are OK with anyone but Huck or McCain. They will rally around Rudy.
Scenario Five is most likely, and it’s the worst combo for Rudy for reasons I posted in the previous thread.
I disagree that Mitt is out if he loses IA or NH. He is strong enough to survive the loss of one of them, but not both.
BTW, I’ve posted a lot of positive expectations about Mitt lately, and haven’t heard any surprise about that from the Rombots…..
December 31st, 2007 at 2:26 pm
Ray,
Fred was the Chairman of John McCain’s 2000 presidential campaign and they remain good friends.
December 31st, 2007 at 2:27 pm
#4 Metro,
I haven’t been around in a while so I didn’t read any of your positive expectations about Mitt
This I think is the best line of your post:
“Conservative opinion makers such as Rush are OK with anyone but Huck or McCain. They will rally around Rudy.”
That is exactly how I feel. I could never vote for Huckabee (even in the general). McCain is a little more exceptable but not by much. I’d rather see Rudy win if Mitt can’t pull this off.
December 31st, 2007 at 2:27 pm
Romney’s LDS GOTV effort? huh?
December 31st, 2007 at 2:27 pm
-there is no way scenerio one is going to happen. Rudy is all but unheard of in the MSM now and the voting hasn’t even begun. He can’t go 0/5 and still take Florida. If his support there was strong right now maybe but it just isn’t strong. and 0/5 is only going to make it worse.
December 31st, 2007 at 2:28 pm
Metro,
I think McCain is too hot right now for him not to benefit dramatically from Mitt losing either state.
December 31st, 2007 at 2:30 pm
Good assessment by all counts. One minor critique:
while LDS people are more likely to vote for a fellow LDS republican, I don’t think it is correct to imply that the LDS are organizing behind Huckabee. The LDS are generally a highly politically/civicly engaged group of people, but there really isn’t any parity between the Southern Baptists and the LDS in Iowa. Here are a few points:
1) LDS don’t organize based on church leadership for political purposes whereas Hucks Army and Pastors for Huck are very open in their GOTV organization.
2) LDS meetinghouses are never used for political purposes (except for organizing legislation agenda e.g. opposing ERA, the Hawaii and California same-sex legislation, etc.) whereas Huckabee is a regular speaker at evangelical churches. To my knowledge, Romney has not even spoken in ONE LDS meetinghouse all this year.
3) The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has not issued one single comment on the merits or demerits of any other evangelical church all this year, whereas many churches with Huckabee supporters as members have ramped up their attacks on Mormonism as a ‘rational’ religion, e.g.
December 31st, 2007 at 2:30 pm
scenerio 5 – Sorry but if Mitt wins Ioawa he wins it all.
December 31st, 2007 at 2:30 pm
Kavon,
I believe part of your post might be factually incorrect, namely that “George Bush defeated John McCain handily among Republicans in the 2000 New Hampshire Primary.”
I say this not just because McCain is my guy but because within the last week I’m pretty sure I looked at a CNN exit poll of the NH primary and saw that Bush won the Republican vote “41-38″ over McCain. In my opinion that is NOT handily.
Additionally, I believe democrats CANNOT vote in the NH republican primary so to say McCain won NH because of Democrats and Independants is misleading. he won because of independents.
December 31st, 2007 at 2:31 pm
#5 Kavon,
I didn’t know that, thanks for the information, that is what I like about your website, some of the more
astute posters(like yourself) educate some of us less “political junkies”.
December 31st, 2007 at 2:31 pm
Kavon, I disagree that Romney’s organization in Iowa is a significant barrier for Huckabee. At Ames Romney was the clear favorite to win with all his buses and folks on the ground. With nothing Huckabee came in a very strong second. I’m guessing that Huckabee wins even if Iowa polls show him trailing Romney by as much as 5 percentage points.
Speaking of religious wars, there are 25 Evangelicals in Iowa for every Mormon (if I recall correctly from revious posts there are 20 thousand Mormons and 500 thousand Evangelicals), so Romney’s “Mormon Advantage” is highly over rated. Even if he gets them all out, the Evangelicals would only have to send 4% of their flock to match the Mormons in votes. Any real Mormon advantage exists in a very limited number of western states only. Their numbers are just way too small to be meaningfull anywhere else.
December 31st, 2007 at 2:33 pm
Rombots, look, we’ve already seen that on this site, there are dozens of you — and 80-90% Mormon.
By your own admission, you are extremely right, 2-3 degrees of separation, Tell-A-Mormon, etc. And understandably want your religion to be seen as legitimate by more Americans.
It doesn’t TAKE an organized effort to get the LDS to turn out for Romney. It’s a natural phenomenon, and we’ve seen it at this very blog.
December 31st, 2007 at 2:33 pm
10: Typo: the LDS isn’t organizing behind huckabee should read, LDS church isn’t organizing against Huckabee.
December 31st, 2007 at 2:34 pm
You can bet that at least one major candidate will drop out after Iowa.
What if Fred finish third in IA? Then all five will continue.
December 31st, 2007 at 2:36 pm
Joseph Walch #16,
I didn’t mean to imply they were at all.
December 31st, 2007 at 2:37 pm
15 – Metro – I would say most LDS people are A-political. Most are conservative but not politically aware. lds on this site are not an accurate sampling of most LDS.
December 31st, 2007 at 2:39 pm
You would have found the same with the 2000 and 2004 election of George Bush (as the LDS are generally more educated and politically active per capita), except now the LDS political advocates are forced to ‘show their true colors’ so-to-speak with Romney. I am sure many of us LDS posters here would also love to see Fred Thompson win, but the point is that we don’t rely on a popularity contest (in the form of political contests) to validate our faith in Christ or our religion.
December 31st, 2007 at 2:39 pm
On #12. Kavon, can you please check this site out? http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/primaries/NH/poll.rep.html
It refutes part of your post. I will admit I was wrong about Democrats being able to vote in the NH republican primary though. It appears they can, although they only made up 4% of the electorate.
December 31st, 2007 at 2:41 pm
steve, well, many LDS on this site have claimed the reverse, that LDS turn out in far higher percentages that average, as an argument for why Romney will do well at the polls.
December 31st, 2007 at 2:44 pm
Kavon: 18
No problem, i’m just a hypersensitive poster who’s just trying to clarify for all the other commenters that might think that LDS people see this as a religious contest; the church certainly doesn’t think so. They are completely neutral on Huck v. Romney.
December 31st, 2007 at 2:45 pm
22 – metro – I speak from my own experience that most of the LDS people I know are non-political. They vote but are not politically astute. That could very in differenrt parts of the country however.
December 31st, 2007 at 2:47 pm
Kavon – excellent analysis. I can see all of those and maybe others actually happening.
Metro – I see by your comments you are now a Romney supporter (just kidding).
Kavon – I shoveled 6 inches this morning before heading to work so I feel your pain.
December 31st, 2007 at 2:47 pm
22 – metro – I suppose LDS are on average more politically inclined than the average american though. thats still not saying much.
December 31st, 2007 at 2:49 pm
I’m just waiting to see the new Huckabee attack ad on Romney. Has anybody seen it???
December 31st, 2007 at 2:52 pm
27 – he is not going to run it
December 31st, 2007 at 2:55 pm
Oh, I just searched it. I guess he is going to run a ‘positive’ campaign by showing the ad he would have run and then saying he’s above all that.
Just like saying: “Romney lied about my record and has personally attacked an American Hero John McCain, but you won’t find me going negative on Romney. . . sotto voce: that lying SOB.”
December 31st, 2007 at 2:55 pm
I think Huckabee wins handily. If it is a “religous” war then Romney WILL get swamped. Huckabee has shown he could get it done under the radar at the straw poll AND I suspect with his new found popularity he will have an even stronger showing on caucus night.
I am Mormon, btw, and I would love to see win all the way to the general. Fairtax would be the best thing for this country. Politically and economically.
December 31st, 2007 at 2:57 pm
I was in church for 3 hours yesterday and didn’t hear the word Mitt or Romney one time. Only a couple stickers on cars in the lot. It won’t be a big factor til it goes out west.
December 31st, 2007 at 2:58 pm
*see Huckabee win
December 31st, 2007 at 2:58 pm
“I’m just waiting to see the new Huckabee attack ad on Romney. Has anybody seen it???”
They pulled the plug at the last minute – they showed it to reporters, but that was it.
I dunno, its strange. Huck took the day off yesterday to make the ad, they set up the room to show it, and then they called the whole thing off at the last second. Either the ad didn’t poll well with a test group, Huckabee got cold feet about going negative, or the ad contained something that ruined the whole thing.
December 31st, 2007 at 3:00 pm
30 – nowandlater – if the reason you like huck is for the “fair tax” you are in for a big disapointment.
December 31st, 2007 at 3:03 pm
33- im sure it had somthing to do with romneys posotive ad
December 31st, 2007 at 3:07 pm
Ron Paul could win MI
December 31st, 2007 at 3:09 pm
#34
Maybe I will be disappointed but it won’t be for lack of trying. I was soured on Huckabee because of his religous campaigning, but he has apologized and I have to cut him slack because he is a Southern Baptist. I can’t expect every politician to be friendly to my faith. All I ask for is neutrality on the matter. I am convinced that Huckabee would be fair.
At any rate, I think Huckabee has the best political skill to sell ideas to the American public and to get them through congress. If you saw the MTP interview, his argument for the pro-life cause was the best I have ever seen — it was outstanding. With that same skill I think he could also get the FairTax enacted. I don’t see Romney, Guilianni, McCain, or Thompson doing that.
So yes, as long as Huckabee plays fair on the religion issue, he is my guy because I believe he is a vote getter and will push forward the best on the two issues which matter most to me. Pro-life and the FairTax. The others are not even in the same ballpark.
December 31st, 2007 at 3:11 pm
I stand by prediction. Huckabee swamps Romney in Iowa. 40 to 25. That will be awesome.
December 31st, 2007 at 3:12 pm
I would like to see a thread about the ‘fair tax’. I have a lot of questions about it I would like to see debated. For example, food for thought….. automobiles….today we sell a lot to Canada, right?…..so what happens to cars sold to Canada dealers? You can charge them the tax cause they can get others a whole lot cheaper. So, if they don’t pay the tax, then do you make it illegal for us to cross the boarder to buy our cars? If not, all the dealerships in the USA would fold because everyone goes across the boarder to buy their car. This is just one of many many things that haven’t been thorougly discussed. I’m not saying its a bad idea, but I just heard on tv a few minutes ago that it would open up a huge black market also. Sorry about posting this here, but a thread for this topic might be nice sometime, ty.
December 31st, 2007 at 3:13 pm
FairTax will be uniformly applied. Either here as a sales tax or an export in the form of a tarrif. No loophole there.
December 31st, 2007 at 3:14 pm
37 – nowlander – I think you may be getting confused a smooth talker and somebody that can get things done. To be a sucsessful president requirres much more than an ability comunicate.
HUck has nothing conservative to point to on his resume and I mean nothing. That means he lacks the ability to actually pull off what he talks about. Both Mitt and Rudy have a palethera of conservative accompishments thay can point to.
December 31st, 2007 at 3:23 pm
This McCain hype is getting out of hand. The man in not leading in a single state and has 2 weeks to close a double digit gap in New Hampshire against Romney. And did I mention that he has been running his campaign on borrowed money and is basically broke? McCain is the candidate in worst shape at this point. Fred and Huck can very easily take off in the south with some early wins. McCain has no viable path to victory. This so called McSurge that the media keeps talking about amounts to a 2 point bump he got on Rasmussen.
December 31st, 2007 at 3:25 pm
On #42. Uhm, it’s not a double-digit lead. Additionally factor in the undecideds, Guiliani supporters(who might go for McCain), and the independants and you can see why intrade is basically calling NH 50/50.
December 31st, 2007 at 3:27 pm
Hey Metro!
Remember me? From a true Rombot…… Thanks for all your positive posts in the last months. It has been very refreshing.
December 31st, 2007 at 3:29 pm
Metro-
I’ve only just gotten to reading through comments in recent threads (travel and all that) and I’ve been looking for a good spot to jump in. I’ve noticed the public shift in your predictions on Mitt, McCain, and Rudy’s chances and scenarios. I think the new ones (i.e. Rudy winning one-on-one in FL, but possibly losing a 3 way Rudy McRomney) to be very clear headed. Thank you.
December 31st, 2007 at 3:32 pm
#41
Huckabee is pro-life, pro-marriage. He’s a Republican and if he is elected he would HAVE to govern as a tax-cutter, because that is the only way the Republicans this cycle in congress will support him.
Also, on foreign policy he talked about fighting the WOT. I think we need a different smarter approach then just overwhelming force. Huckabee has argued for more intelligence forces, strenghtening Muslim moderates, and developing partnerships which is identical to Romney’s argument.
With regards to immigration. We aren’t going to get everything we want. Huckabee will get border enforcement and some structure in place with regards to immigration. The other Republicans will get nothing done in congress. So the question becomes, do I rather get something with Huckabee or become to ambitious and get nothing with the others?
In my estimate, politically Huckabee makes the most sense if we want to retain the Whitehouse and have someone with great political skills get something done. A great manager like Romney maybe fantastic at organizational abilities but he will be useless if he doesn’t have the cunning and political skills of a Huckabee.
December 31st, 2007 at 3:33 pm
Let me state my Iowa Caucus prediction. Huckabee soundly over Romney, 40 to 25.
December 31st, 2007 at 3:35 pm
It seems that Huckabee is now accusing Romney of inflating his record.
what a dishonest slug.
December 31st, 2007 at 3:37 pm
Yet another sly trick from the Huckster. Create a hit ad. Show it to the media at a press conference. Then immediately turn tail and pull it from running on TV. The ad will leak out and Huckabee will get plenty of play and get his message across better than had he run the ad. And now he can claim to be above the fray.
Brilliant strategy by the Huckster – too bad it won’t work as Iowans have seen him for what a joke he is.
December 31st, 2007 at 3:45 pm
Illinoisguy – there are a lot of arguments on both sides of the FairTax issue. Needless to say, making the FairTax part of your campaign strategy is a failed strategy in my opinion. The issues are too complex to be digested in 30 second soundbites, and the premise and implimentation of the FairTax can be easily twisted in many different ways.
Huckabee came upon the FairTax AFTER he tossed his hat in the ring and some have attributed FairTax supporters as giving him the boost in Ames to even keep him viable long enough to catch some air and see his campaign rise.
I’d like to see a Romney administration tackle the FairTax by applying his analytical and debate skills on the issue – have some real good drag out battles in the Oval Office from all sides and see where Mitt comes down on it. Is it something that he’d champion through congress? Not sure. He hasn’t come out against it, and I suspect that he’d give it an honest review – unlike what Bush did with his tax advisory panel.
I will say that in no way does Huckabee have the support of the majority of FairTaxers, but since he has come out in favor of the plan, he likely has a plurality of a small, but politically active segment of the voting base.
December 31st, 2007 at 3:50 pm
49 – Someone needs to post the HUck exchange to the reporters after the attack ad ran.
“I just decided that’s not the way we want to run it,” the former pastor said. “It’s never too late to do the right thing.”
This guy is the most self-righteous scum around. His self righeousness is always so inocent “who? little ol’ me? Im way too righteous for that”.
December 31st, 2007 at 3:50 pm
another redstat-er for McCain!
http://www.redstate.com/stories/elections/2008/mccain_for_president_2008
December 31st, 2007 at 3:51 pm
Let me throw my opinion in on this “LDS GOTV” thing. I’m LDS and I agree with others that have posted that there are more apolitical LDS people than those are are politically involved. There is definitely no LDS GOTV initiative. I’m from rural NY, and I don’t really know much at all about the favorite political candidates among the members here. I know one guy who likes Romney, one lady who’s in love with Obama, and me, a Fred supporter. That’s about it.
December 31st, 2007 at 3:56 pm
steve – I liked this summation from EVM recapping this stunt by Huck-a-Team:
It’s like a preacher delivering a sermon against gossip, by saying, “As many of you know, there are certain people in our church who gossip. Take for example, sister Jones who can’t even keep a husband. Or, brother Jack, who recently drank away his inheritance. Well, I for one am not like those sinners. I say we need to take to higher road. So, unlike brother McDermott — whose car was parked outside Miss Donavan’s home a little late last night — I believe it’s important to be holy.”
For you evangelicals who worry how having a Mormon president would play out, at least you wouldn’t have to worry about a Baptist weight loss guru glibly cheapening your faith. The whole scene reminds me of Luke 18:11:
“The Pharisee stood and prayed thus with himself, God, I thank thee, that I am not as other men are…”
Except that the Pharisee didn’t have the foresight to call a press conference.
December 31st, 2007 at 3:57 pm
typo – EVM – should be EFM “Evangelicals for Mitt”
December 31st, 2007 at 4:02 pm
On the Rudy wins scenario, it seems like if Huckabee wins Iowa, unless he melts down afterward, he will likely win South Carolina. Last I had seen he had a lead in the polls there and I don’t think Michigan and Nevada are going to carry much weight down South.
December 31st, 2007 at 4:08 pm
FCOH – his strategy is the same every time. think about it.
the little inocent jesus satan comment…….“who? little ol’ me? Little ol’ me wouldn’t do something like thatâ€.
The cross ad…….“who? little ol’ me? Little ol’ me wouldn’t do something like thatâ€.
Runs an attack ad…….“who? little ol’ me? Little ol’ me wouldn’t do something like thatâ€.
Its not that he is doing these things that bug me. What bugs me is that he acts like he’s not doing it when everyone with a brain knows he is doing it. Its insulting.
December 31st, 2007 at 4:12 pm
“If they abandon us now because we are not gong to go negative, it would surprise me.” – Mike Huckabee
“If my own abandon me on the battlefield, it will have a chilling effect.” – Mike Huckabee
You’ve got to hand it to him – he’s a master at deceipt and subtlety
December 31st, 2007 at 4:27 pm
I am not a new arrival at your #1 scenario. Have believed for several weeks, this is how it plays out … with just a couple of modifications.
MR wins Iowa but the top 3-4 are more bunched than now appears and MR win is discounted; MR loses NH by a really big margin (20%+) to JM etc etc
I also share your apprehension about MR ground organization in Iowa. His performance at Ames is overrated but I assume they have learned from their mistakes and probable overconfidence. MH has made too many mistakes to make it.
Rest of your scenario except Nevada – which goes to RG – is way I play it out.
95% of media and pundits are real dolts. If you look back at how wrong they have been so far, one does not take their opinion for anything. With that said, they need copy and they really want a fight in Florida and 2/5 with someone with RG. At the slightest hint, they will build this into “gunfight at OK Coral”
I also am pressed to see any candidate that drops out endorsing MR. It will be either JM or RG.
December 31st, 2007 at 4:33 pm
You guys are seriously underestimating Mike Huckabee’s organizational strength. Lest we forget, his organization was invisible for the straw poll yet it was man to man superior than Mitt’s. Clearly, Mike Huckabee is the religous favorite. His GOTV will swamp Romney’s. It will be a rout and you guys don’t even see it coming.
December 31st, 2007 at 4:37 pm
Now and Later
Why do you support the Huckster over Romney, is it just the Fair Tax issue? Just curious to hear your reasoning.
December 31st, 2007 at 4:40 pm
If Romney wins Iowa, he wins New Hampshire. Even if he doesn’t, McCain is not going to win by a large margin.
December 31st, 2007 at 4:59 pm
FairTax, connects better with voters and moderates, and he doesn’t alienate a significant portion of the Republican base. AND he more politically skilled to get legislation through a Democratic congressman. I think the other will be beat in a Democratic November Tsunami. Huckabee could survive the worst onslaught. Romney, Guiliani, McCain, and Thompson cannot. While, not perfect on everything I would rather have something in Huckabee then nothing (a Hillary, Obama presidency) from the others.
December 31st, 2007 at 5:14 pm
NowandLater,
So you as a Mormon are ok with his Anti-Mormon agenda, that is surprising. Makes me wonder if you really are LDS.
December 31st, 2007 at 5:31 pm
On #62. That’s quite a flip-flop!
December 31st, 2007 at 5:34 pm
Romney can lose Iowa and still win New Hampshire. This type of thing happens often in the GOP.
December 31st, 2007 at 5:42 pm
What Anti-Mormon agenda?
Huckabee apologized for his mis-statement. I am not foolish enough to equate political success with religous/spiritual success. I don’t care if a politician loves my Faith. As long as he maintains neutrality then I don’t give a flying flip.
December 31st, 2007 at 6:46 pm
Scenario #3 is probable. Scenario #4 is possible. None of the other scenarios are possible. If Mitt wins Iowa, he wins New Hampshire. There is no way that Mitt doesn’t get a bounce from winning Iowa. There is no way that McCain gets anything but negative momentum from a 4th place finish in Iowa. The last time I checked, which was yesterday, Romney was ahead in the most recent poll in Nevada. He was also ahead in the most recent poll in Michigan. His GOTV organizations are superior in both states. Mitt’s also not out of it if he loses Iowa, but that’s where scenario 4 gains parity with scenario 3.
December 31st, 2007 at 6:50 pm
nowandlater,
If I thought Huckabee had ANY chance of enacting the Fair Tax, I would vote for him. It’s not even remotely possible at this point…..you must be a political novice. Oh, and BTW, Huckabee is off-the-charts ANTI-MORMON. He was one of the leaders of the Southern Baptist anti-Mormon crusade in Utah a few years ago.
December 31st, 2007 at 7:21 pm
I do think he has a chance. He had Mormons in Arkansas and I don’t think it will be problem when he is POTUS.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:03 pm
yea that 40% of republican caucus goers that are Evangelicals really have an uphill battle against the 2% of Mormons in the state.
Remember of that 2% not all are of voting age not all vote. Typically about 1 in 10 registered voters caucus.
So 2% (typically half that that attend church at least once a year) being extremely generous that half the mormons vote.. then divide that by the 1 in 10 voter/caucus goer average of iowa. Down to a generous .01 generous amount of the caucus voters are mormons.
sure hope those 4 in 10 can pull that off. holy war bah, go spend some time in iraq if you want to see holy wars. This is elephant and the mouse.
January 1st, 2008 at 9:49 am
Dave – you are obviously a “Mitten” and that is great.
Look at the InTrade numbers this morning 10:40 eastern. These are people with opinions who back them with their own money. I beleive them far more reliable than “pundits” – who have been wrong consistently in 2007.
Also look at track record of InTrade – picked the Presidency and winner in every Senate seat in 2004 (except Alaska)
MR (22.0%) now in third place for first time in months
JM (22.4) – terrific surge in last 10 days
RG (30.0) – basically stable in last 10 days
MR, as of this morning (and I believe for the first time), is behind in BOTH Iowa and NH.
Nevada – RG is actually in front but MR is up in Michigan (which he is going to lose post a huge defeat in NH)
All other states – RG is far ahead except SC.
On 1/16, this will become a two person race – JM (who wins the anybody but Rudy race) and RG. RG wins that contest as RG becomes the anybody but JM candidate. Rush etc can all live with RG but not JM.
Watch MR endorse RG and become the VP noninee.