Poll Watch:
New ARG (i know, I know) Poll for NH:
| New Hampshire | |||
| Likely Republican Primary Voters | Nov 26-29 | Dec 16-19 | Dec 27-29 |
| Giuliani | 22% | 16% | 9% |
| Huckabee | 13% | 11% | 11% |
| Hunter | - | 1% | 1% |
| Keyes | - | 1% | 1% |
| McCain | 11% | 26% | 30% |
| Paul | 2% | 4% | 7% |
| Romney | 36% | 26% | 30% |
| Tancredo | 1% | 1% | ni |
| Thompson | 3% | 4% | 3% |
| Undecided | 12% | 10% | 8% |
Huckabee in 3rd!
Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican primary voters living in New Hampshire (484 Republicans and 116 undeclared (independent) voters).
Sample Dates: December 27-29, 2007
Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.
Question Wording:
If the 2008 Republican presidential preference primary were being held today between (names rotated) Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Alan Keyes, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Fred Thompson, for whom would you vote?
Would you say that you definitely plan to vote in the 2008 Republican presidential primary, that you might vote in the 2008 Republican presidential primary, or that you will probably not vote in the 2008 Republican presidential primary?
December 30th, 2007 at 3:31 pm
It seems possible that Romney-Huck-McCain will all finish in the top 3 in the first two states. Wonder what that does to the prospects of Guiliani? Obviously Fred would be toast under this scenario.
December 30th, 2007 at 3:36 pm
Please Sen Thompson finish third in IA and RuPaul – a 4th in IA would be nice, as well.
December 30th, 2007 at 3:38 pm
I would say that its far from obvious that McCain will finish in the top three in Iowa, but it is certainly a possibility.
December 30th, 2007 at 3:38 pm
With the HUCK-A-BUST Coming…..
Romney will get the minor bounce he needs to win decently in NH, as well…..
He will win BOTH!!
December 30th, 2007 at 3:39 pm
1. guess I put the obvious in your second sentence into your first sentence.
December 30th, 2007 at 3:43 pm
Wow. An ARG poll that doesn’t look completely insane. When I saw “ARG- NH poll” I half expected Tancredo to come in around 15%.
December 30th, 2007 at 3:46 pm
If Guiliani has really fallen that far, he is facing a 6th in Iowa, and a 5th in New Hampshire. If he finishes like that, he can kiss off any fundraising and endorsements in January. Considering he is now mid-teens nationally (according to Rasmussen today), he will be a 5th place finisher with no money and no firewall.
He and Thompson would have to vie for worst campaign of the cycle.
December 30th, 2007 at 4:10 pm
Even more proof that when Romney looses in Iowa McCain is the person to take his spot.
McCain-Huckabee 2008!
December 30th, 2007 at 4:12 pm
mws is correct about giuliani. that together with kerik’s trial starting up here in a few days, will put the death nail in his strategy.
however, with things looking more and more jumbled without a clear frontrunner, his ridiculous strategy is still possible if florida sticks with him through the first few weeks of january.
when was the latest florida poll?
December 30th, 2007 at 4:28 pm
On #8. If not for the age factor I think McCain/Thompson would be a good ticket.
December 30th, 2007 at 4:33 pm
#8
JL I think you are right that McCain is not in control of his own destiny.
December 30th, 2007 at 4:39 pm
Go Ron Paul!
*sorry*
December 30th, 2007 at 5:03 pm
ARG = Arghhhhh
Why does anyone take these people seriously let alone pay them for their research
December 30th, 2007 at 5:18 pm
It’s pretty clear that neither TLG or Metro has read these comments
December 30th, 2007 at 5:19 pm
Its okay, according to metro no matter what rudy does, his strategy is still brilliant.
December 30th, 2007 at 5:58 pm
If Mitt wins Iowa its domino time.
December 30th, 2007 at 6:07 pm
It’s interesting that Ron Paul has been excluded from the upcoming Fox News roundtable discussion with 5 of the Republican presidential candidates while Fred Thompson, who is behind him in the polls was invited.
http://isupportronpaul.blogspot.com/
December 30th, 2007 at 6:14 pm
If Huckabee loses Iowa he will ignore NH and go for South Carolina. He would then finish 5th in NH.
Iowa will be make or break for Huckabee. If he loses Iowa I doubt he would finish top three in South Carolina.
December 30th, 2007 at 6:18 pm
These numbers look half decent. Not bad for ARG.
Ron Paul is continuing to move up in NH. Its conceivable that he takes 3rd place, which would be major news (not enough for him to win the nomination, but enough to launch an indie bid if he feels that way inclined. Certainly the GOP leadership should take note).
This poll shows what a massive mistake Rudy made going for a national strategy. He has seen his numbers collapse in the early states, and if he can’t get a top 3 showing in Iowa or NH he’s toast.
December 30th, 2007 at 6:21 pm
Another RuPaul spam bot.
Wasn’t that discussion/debate canceled 3 weeks ago?
December 30th, 2007 at 6:21 pm
Great comeback from JMac, who would have thought even a month ago that he’d have more chance of winning the nomination than Rudy? Now if Mitt loses Iowa JMac is in poll position.
I still think SC will be the decider. If JMac, Mitt & Huck all come out of the first two with momentum, SC will decide the winner…
December 30th, 2007 at 6:29 pm
Rudy is successfully employing the Chris Dodd strategy.
Have everyone talk about your opponents, not you, so that you can beat expectations on caucas day. Should work a treat…
December 30th, 2007 at 6:44 pm
It’s clear that McCain is benefitting from the 25 newspaper endorsements and the Lieberman endorsement, as well as Giuliani’s decline and impending fall. This poll probably overstates McCain’s rise a little, but if Mitt were to lose Iowa by more than a hair, New Hampshire could actually become this tight….But, if Mitt wins Iowa, he wins New Hampshire.
December 30th, 2007 at 6:50 pm
The press, and on line both are always talking about the Giuliani strategy to not concentrate on the early states. There is only one reason that it became his strategy, and that is because that he could not compete in Iowa and NH when he was trying hard. By July, he had already figured he could not compete in Iowa, so he passed up the straw poll. He still ran medium hard in NH and intended to hit it hard in December (remember, the shock and awe), but when he turned the ads on high and started campaigning hard, guess what, he couldn’t move his numbers up. So, again, he decided to save his money, and quit trying. I guess it goes back to the old Nixon saying, “When the going gets tough, the tough get going’!
To think we would trust this guy who loves to cut and run with our military endeavors is ludicrous.
December 30th, 2007 at 7:39 pm
this is an ARG poll……need i say more?!