Before holiday travels rudely interfered with my blogging schedule, I was prepared to pen a piece on what I now see as the likeliest of scenarios in the race for the GOP nod: a McCain rout. But Bob Novak, who apparently never takes a holiday, has beaten me to it, using the precise scenario for a McCain nomination that I had in mind. Money quote:
Sen. John McCain, given up for dead a few weeks ago as he ran a cash-starved, disorganized campaign, today is viewed by canny Republican professionals as the best bet to win the party’s presidential nomination. What’s more, they consider him their most realistic prospect to buck the overall Democratic tide and win the general election. Indeed, if Mike Huckabee holds on to actually win the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, the road forward could be clear for McCain.
Mitt Romney’s lavishly financed, meticulously organized campaign always has operated with a thin margin of error based on winning Iowa and then the New Hampshire primary five days later. If Romney loses to Huckabee in Iowa, he becomes vulnerable to McCain in New Hampshire. If McCain wins there, he will be favored to sweep through subsequent primaries despite meager finances and organization.
Indeed. The sense that McCain has the clearest path to the GOP nomination is one of the greatest ironies of the race for 2008, and is the result of a number of factors, all of which just happened to line up for McCain in the final weeks of the campaign. This is not unlike the dynamic we saw on the Democratic side in 2004, where John Kerry won the nod more by default than anything else when Gephardt and Dean knocked each other out of the race, Lieberman proved too conservative for most Democrats, and Clark turned out to be a dud.
This year, it’s Huckabee and Romney in the Dean/Gephardt roles. Romney, a traditional underdog in a Republican primary due to the tendency of Republicans to nominate frontrunners, decided to pursue the only strategy that made sense for a small-state governor: dump everything into Iowa and New Hampshire and go for a Carter-style juggernaut into the later states. But the downside of such a strategy is that failing to win Iowa and New Hampshire basically becomes a death knell for such a campaign. The Iowa-centric Huckabee candidacy, if victorious, will probably ensure that Romney loses not just Iowa, but is deflated in New Hampshire as well, allowing McCain to win what is currently a Granite State nailbiter. It’s hard to see how Romney can survive losses in both Iowa and New Hampshire.
But where does Huckabee go after Iowa? The conservative establishment has been sufficiently effective at exposing Huckabee’s record to prevent him from winning both secular, northern Republicans in New Hampshire and Michigan, and Rush-loving conservatives in South Carolina and Florida. Huck’s populist, pacifist conservatism plays well along the Mississippi River, but that’s not where this nomination will be decided. After Iowa, Huck is done.
And then, of course, there’s Thompson. If Fred finishes fourth or fifth in Iowa and is beaten by Ron Paul in New Hampshire, Candidate Thompson will be effectively written out of the race and FredHeads will likely look for another guy to support. Given the similarity between the position papers and demographic appeal of Thompson and McCain, it wouldn’t be difficult to imagine the supporters of the former embracing the latter.
That leaves Rudy as the sole firewall between McCain and the nomination. I suppose it’s possible that Rudy could win a two-man race against McCain and make the final comeback in a race laden with comebacks. But in order for that to happen, Rudy’s candidacy would have to begin to show signs of strength, instead of the signs of weakness it has been showing, such as when Rudy pulled out of New Hampshire after his bevy of ads failed to make waves in the Granite State, or Rudy’s current shift away from the Florida firewall narrative and towards a downplaying of expectations in the Sunshine State. If McCain wins New Hampshire, Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida, it will be McCain, and not Rudy, who is crowned the nominee on Super Tuesday.
But if McCain does in fact become the nominee, it won’t be by the quirks of the GOP field alone. There’s also a growing sense among conservatives that McCain just may be the right man at the right time for party and country, even if that wasn’t always the case. The preeminence of national security and defense issues in a world where expansionist Islamism is still alive and well necessitates a wartime leader who is both hawkish and experienced. McCain checks both boxes. McCain has never been a supply-sider’s best friend, but he’s also never voted to raise taxes, and most conservatives would admit that the next president’s sole job on taxes is to oppose the Democratic Congress’ likely numerous attempts to rescind the Bush tax cuts. On social issues, McCain has never cozied up to the Pat Robertsons of the world in the way that some social conservatives would like, but after three decades of voting consistently pro-life and in favor of conservative judges even when it was unpopular (Bork, Thomas), it becomes difficult to claim that McCain is an Arlen Specter clone. In short, most conservatives probably feel that the next president must be able to do three things: crush radical Islamism, restore fiscal sanity without raising taxes, and replace Justice Stevens with a conservative. McCain would do all three.
In sum, I don’t know if McCain will be the Republican nominee in 2008. But I do believe that McCain now has a clearer path to the nomination than anyone else in the field, a development that should humble all of those who at any time wrote the senator’s political obituary, myself among them.
December 27th, 2007 at 9:08 pm
Where does Huckabee go after Iowa.
To a 3rd or 4th place showing in NH, and then to Michigan, where he has no campaign staff or paid media.
But where five successive polls have shown him within two points, either ahead or behind, of Romney in Romney’s native state. And that’s BEFORE Romney loses both Iowa and NH.
If the Dems cross over, McCain could again take Michigan. But if they stay in the Dem primary, following a Dem Party strategy to try to create a 15% or higher “uncommitted” vote so that delegates can go to their national convention uncommitted, then polls indicate a surging Huck could knock off Mitt here in the Mitten.
But win or lose in MI, Huck then goes to S.C., which he’ll win. And then to FL, where he’ll win or come in 2nd.
And then to Super Tuesday with Ark, GA, Tn, Alabama, etc.
In short, he’s got plenty of places to go, IF he wins Iowa.
December 27th, 2007 at 9:10 pm
I disagree that McCain has the clearest path to the nomiantion, but I do agree that we might have been a bit premature in writing him off.
That said, if the GOP nominates McCain, it will be choosing the biggest RINO in the field. McCain has simply told the GOP to “shove it” on immigration, taxes, marraige, campaign finance, etc., etc.
John McCain is not the kind of man who is going to support the down-the-line Conservative positions that the party needs right now, and he is not the kind of man who can govern with vigor and energy for the next eight years like the country needs right now.
December 27th, 2007 at 9:11 pm
Gary,
Rudy runs 2nd in Tennessee, followed by McCain.
December 27th, 2007 at 9:13 pm
Its looking more and more possible – even likely – that Huckabee, not Romney, will be the one walking out of Iowa with a loss. Romney has pulled back within the margin of error, and we know that his massive organizational advantage could give him a 3-5% boost.
Romney is not done, not by a long shot.
December 27th, 2007 at 9:18 pm
I agree, McCain’s prospects are looking good and, as I remarked in a previous thread, he could play very well here in FL. However, I’d like to share a nice rebuttal from Joe Carter to Dave G. and the rest of the anti-Huck crowd:
http://www.evangelicaloutpost.com/archives/004151.html#more
December 27th, 2007 at 9:25 pm
Dave, McCain has a ceiling within the GOP. He can never exceed 50%. Never has in a 2man poll. Never has in 1st+2nd choice combined, to my knowledge.
He’s sabotaged the GOP too many times and there’s massive distrust and disgust with the man.
December 27th, 2007 at 9:58 pm
This is getting silly now. Does Novak just want attention? McCain does not have the easiest path to the nomination. I would still rather be in Romney’s shoes but we’ll see.
Also Metro, what candidate other then Rudy has a ceiling above 50% ?
December 27th, 2007 at 9:59 pm
Metro – spot on. McCain’s burned too many bridges and will not be able to bring the various wings of the GOP together in a united front against the DEMs, seeing as they (Dems and McCain) agree on so many issues. If reality follows this cinderella narrative contrived by the MSM and dutifully carried out by the uninformed GOP electorate, it is a nice setup for DEM victory next fall with a surge of support for an independent candidate.
December 27th, 2007 at 10:00 pm
I’m still not sure why mccain has the clearest path to the nomination.
his strategy depends on one state that he is not even winning. he has no money. conservatives HATE him.
If he wins new hampshire, then what? How does he compete without the money and organization that romney has? If romney wins Iowa which is beginning to look very possible, then mccain is almost certainly out.
is it possible, sure, but likely, and the clearest path, I don’t think so. but novak, wow, he is always right. novak is a bafoon.
December 27th, 2007 at 10:07 pm
While rudy and mccain are certainly not as conservative as the other candidates in the field, the big difference between the two is rudy hasn’t run around telling conservatives to pound sand. Rudy says ya disagree with you but lets find something that we share in common, but mccain on the other hand tells us to go to hell. That’s why although i ideologically disagree with both men, i have no problem supporting rudy if he was the nominee. Mccain on the other hand i have no love for.
Rush put it best when he said Mccain seems to hate conservatives more than he hates liberals.
December 27th, 2007 at 10:10 pm
ajay, Rudy and Fred both have ceilings well above 50%. Romney, McCain and Huck do not.
December 27th, 2007 at 10:10 pm
Lest we quickly forget John McCain’s record on illegal immigration – it’s a ‘D’ to go with his 894th out of a class of 899 graduation status.
http://grades.betterimmigration.com/testgrades.php3?District=AZ&VIPID=33
December 27th, 2007 at 10:29 pm
It is lookingly increasingly like a two man race. Mitt and McCain. Politically, they sound about like mortal enemies right now.
December 27th, 2007 at 10:31 pm
MR, what is the basis for the Rudy & Fred both have ceilings well above 50%?
It seems nonsense to me. Fred doesn’t have a hope of cobbling together 50%, he appeals to dyed in the wool conservatives and little else. Rudy & McCain both have cross over appeal, which Huck doesn’t have, and I’m still unsure about Romney.
If its McCain vs Clinton, what will motivate people to support a 3rd party ticket against McCain? Campaign finance? Immigration? I think in the presence of Hillary those wings will bite the bullet and support him.
December 27th, 2007 at 10:34 pm
If Mitt wins Iowa then McCain/NH is the last chance for anyone to knock him from the nomination.
If Huck wins Iowa then he will face the winner of NH in SC to decide the nominee. That would be quite a clash.
December 27th, 2007 at 10:52 pm
yeah sure. McCain is not leading anywhere, has a double digit gap to close in NH against Romney, is broke, no one likes him but yeah he’ll just become the nominee somehow.
December 27th, 2007 at 11:20 pm
I love the way the MSM tries to tell the GOP who their candidate is going to be!
I do not trust McCain and, personally, I get really sick and tired of him reminding me, everytime he opens his mouth, how he was tortured for our country.
Don’t get me wrong – I admire his service, but enough already!
The GOP has reason to be angry at him for many things.
He is not a dependable conservative.
December 27th, 2007 at 11:39 pm
What the hell is a dependable conservative? McCain isn’t my #1, but every front-runner has strayed from the hardline conservative base. Which is expected. Most GOPers don’t agree with every single plank of the platform. It is unrealistic to expect anyone to. Cite Huck’s popularity as proof that you don’t need to walk in lock step with the RNC to be embraced. The issues that McCain strays on aren’t totally important to the middle, who will decide this race.
December 27th, 2007 at 11:46 pm
I never wrote his obituary, I actually said when others were, that they shoudln’t count him out. Now on the other hand, the idea that he has the clearest path the victory is really poppy cock.
If McCain had the clearest path than all forces of nature (except the MSM) would be working on him. since the MSM and all the competition are trying there best to whack down Romney, I think it’s quite clear who the odds on favorite is.
December 27th, 2007 at 11:47 pm
17, As far as I know he hasn’t really made that big of deal out his torture, especially not talking himself about it. I think you’re being too petty Beth.
December 27th, 2007 at 11:50 pm
Yeah I agree McCain’s not the favorite yet. He might be in a few weeks, but right now I’d put at about fourth place.
December 27th, 2007 at 11:51 pm
19, I don’t think Romney’s the clear favorite either. I don’t think we have a clear favorite.
December 28th, 2007 at 12:01 am
… “Romney is not done, not by a long shot” …
Yes. But only because Romney is hemorrhaging money in Iowa almost as fast as he’s hemorrhaging credibility in New Hampshire, which is almost as fast as he’s hemorrhaging any chance of making it to super-duper apocalypse Tuesday. Have you seen these numbers?
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1207/Romney_saturating_Iowa_airwaves.html
Romney is outspending–and has outspent–his nearest rival by several orders of magnitude, yet he is *still* behind?
This has to tell you something, dude.
Why are candidates with so much less money and almost no organization so easily out-competing this strange person? Why is he not grinding them all to powder? Answer: because without his vast personal wealth, he would be third tier.
No one in US political history has ever spent this much of their own money. Romney has yet to prove that the GOP is for sale–too many of us are holding out– but he may yet do so. As you so aptly put it, Romney is not done yet … there may not be a party left when he’s through, but he’s not done yet, not by a long shot. Go Mitt, go! Spend! Spend! Spend!
December 28th, 2007 at 12:11 am
Civic,
Your bugged by Mitt, but guess what? Despite all the campaigns working against him, and the MSM, for over a year, he’s still ticking.
December 28th, 2007 at 12:15 am
#18 – Eric: You ask “What the hell is a dependable conservative?”
From http://www.hughhewitt.com – December 26th post
The McCain-Feingold slam on free speech, the Gang of 14 blow to the judicial nomination reform, and the proposed McCain-Kennedy immigration bill are not going to be forgotten by GOP primary voters, which is why it will end up being Romney or Giuliani, and as Huckabee fades in Iowa, Romney is revealed as having built an organization that lasted through the Huck surge and which will endure long after McCain’s last attempt to derail the GOP has passed. (Team McCain’s angry reaction to the Romney campaigns highlighting of past McCain adventures reminds all of the GOP just how irascible the McCain gang can be. Inventing a Romney “tailspin” also reminds us that there’s McCain’s World, where the facts don’t matter much, whether on immigration, campaign finance, or judicial nominations.) Both challenges are very good for the likely GOP nominee, testing his own and his team’s ability to respond to changing political data as well as Romney has for decades responded to changing markets. There was a period in which the Olympics almost cratered as well which Romney managed one day and one sponsor/organization at a time –a very useful experience to have had as the next week unfolds.
December 28th, 2007 at 12:28 am
” … Your bugged by Mitt … ”
Entertained would be a better word, as in “I am entertained by Mitt.” This would be Shakespearean level tragedy if it weren’t so riotously funny. It’s like watching a clean-cut version of Richard III.
” … but guess what? Despite all the campaigns working against him, and the MSM, for over a year, he’s still ticking … ”
Indeed. It’s amazing the attention, image-management, expert consulting, and impression-formation that US$250 million can buy you.
Can it buy you the GOP nomination is the question yet to be answered.
We shall see.
December 28th, 2007 at 12:29 am
NH Romney 48 McCain 40 on Intrade on the assassination day, who would have thought Romney would leap frog Mccain (a 16 point swing). GO Mitt!!!
December 28th, 2007 at 12:32 am
civic – the fact is that no other candidate could even be close to where he is if all other candidates were against him, and the MSM wanted them dead as they do Romney. He is an amazing candidate, the best we’ve had in a long time.
December 28th, 2007 at 3:55 am
Dudes, don’t be angry that more people like Romney, and are giving him more money…one of the reasons he is spending more money, is because he raised more money, i.e. more people donated, more support, better campaign management, etc…see how that works. McCain on the other hand is on the verge of accepting matching funds and is almost bankrupt hence the lack of spending. Romney is a new face, not part of the washingtonian crowd (McCain), so he needs to get his name out there, and again he has raised more money than almost all the other candidates combined (except for Giuliani).
December 28th, 2007 at 5:32 am
#4- I don’t know who you think you’re kidding. A month ago, no one would have thought Huckabee could walk away winning Iowa. Now, he’s in the lead. Even if he comes in third, he’s doing WAY better than anyone thought he could pull off. If he comes in first, he’s likely to be the nominee. Even if he comes in second or third, he’s still a force to be reckoned with. I find it hilarious that people are already trying to discount a possible Huckabee win in Iowa.
December 28th, 2007 at 5:40 am
I like Romney’s chances best, but I’m not sure if my reasoning holds up. A political contest like this one is not something I’ve seen in my lifetime (I’m only 26), but I am familiar with a few close sports contests. One thing I know is that it is always better to be in control of your own destiny. Teams who are reliant on one opponent beating another usually don’t get very far.
I don’t know if this applies to a situation like the Republican primaries, but if they do, then Romney is in the best spot. Huckabee can beat Romney in Iowa, but he has no control over New Hampshire. If Romney wins there, then Huckabee’s IA win will be an abberation, not a predictor. Likewise with McCain in NH. He is depending on Romney taking a hit from losing in IA, but he can’t deliver that hit on his own. Even Giuliani, with his late state strategy, is depending on there being no clear winner before Florida. He isn’t positioned to do this on his own, so he is hoping for as many people as possible to divide the pie.
I laugh when I read articles that talk about how Romney is being forced to campaign on two fronts. I see it as the other campaigns are forced to campaign in only a single state. If I have to pick, I have to go with the guy who is fighting his own battles and is in control of his own destiny.
December 28th, 2007 at 9:40 am
Novak has been full of hot air. His old-age senility is setting in.
December 28th, 2007 at 10:21 am
McCain would be a TERRIBLE disaster for the GOP. If the establishment can forcefeed on the American people another lesser-of-two-evils general election,like they have every four years since Reagan, then the two party system will be broken for good. This is not a time for the prospect of two nominees like Hillary and McCain to get all chummy and “respectful” of each other. America needs to be told by the GOP nominee why the Democrat party will ruin our country. The MSM will not tell the truth. McCain and Giuliani, and Huck and Freddy, they’re all sellots, and they won’t challenge the establishment. America needs a real choice right now.