From Rasmussen Reports: How GOP voters view candidates’ ideology:
Conservative:
Fred Thompson 50% Mike Huckabee 43% Mitt Romney 38% John McCain 31% Ron Paul 24% Rudy Giuliani 20%
Moderate/Liberal:
Rudy Giuliani 74% John McCain 59% Mitt Romney 43% Mike Huckabee 41% Ron Paul 40% Fred Thompson 39%
Breakdown:
Moderate:
Rudy Giuliani 62% John McCain 50% Fred Thompson 36% Mitt Romney 35% Mike Huckabee 32% Ron Paul 26%
Liberal
Ron Paul 14% Rudy Giuliani 12% Mike Huckabee 9% John McCain 9% Mitt Romney 8% Fred Thompson 3%
Survey of 800 Likely Voters; December 10-18, 2007
Analysis:
Seventy-four percent (74%) of Republican voters see Rudy Giuliani as politically moderate or liberal. Fifty-nine percent (59%) say the same about John McCain while 43% hold that view of Mitt Romney. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 41% now see Mike Huckabee as moderate or liberal and 39% see Fred Thompson in that manner.
For all the candidates except John McCain, those figures are higher than a month ago.
Huckabee has seen the biggest jump-15 percentage points (41% now while a month ago 26% said he was moderate or liberal). Still, 43% view him a politically conservative (up five points from a month ago). While Republican voters are evenly divided on his ideology, Fred Thompson is the only candidate seen as more conservative.
Romney is now viewed as politically conservative by 38% of Republican voters and moderate or liberal by 43%. Those figures reflect an eight-point decline in the number seeing him as conservative and a ten-point increase in the number seeing him as moderate or liberal. In terms of how he is perceived by Republican voters, Romney is ideologically in the center among the top Republican candidates-Thompson and Huckabee are seen as more conservative, McCain and Giuliani as more moderate or liberal.
Thompson is once again seen as the most conservative candidate in the Republican field-50% of Republican voters say he is politically conservative while 39% say moderate or liberal. While Thompson’s campaign has disappointed many of his early supporters and is reportedly low on cash, the perception that he is the most conservative candidate gives him one potential asset heading in to primary season.
Giuliani has always been considered politically moderate or liberal by most Republican voters and that perception has been growing even more pronounced in recent months. Just 21% of GOP voters view him as politically conservative while 74% say he is moderate or liberal. That latter figure is up from 70% a month ago.
McCain is now seen as politically conservative by 31% of Republicans, up from 28% a month ago. The number seeing him as moderate or liberal is down to 59% from 64% in November. Among all voters, McCain now has the highest favorable ratings of all Presidential candidates in either party and the lowest level of core opposition. As noted in a recent analysis, it’s a good time to be John McCain, He has increased his support in Iowa and is within a few points of the lead in New Hampshire.
Overall, this Rasmussen Reports polling data highlights one key reason that there is no frontrunner in the race for the Republican nomination. Only one of their leading candidates is seen by half the party’s voters as politically conservative… and his campaign has been lackluster at best to this point in time. On top of that, as the campaign has dragged on, a growing share of Republican voters have come to believe that their other leading candidates are either politically moderate or liberal. In a political party that leans in the conservative direction, that’s sure to create some tension and frustration.
Update: Aron posted these adding the conservative/moderate leanings
Conservative/Moderate
Fred Thompson 86% Rudy Giuliani 82% John McCain 81% Mike Huckabee 75% Mitt Romney 73% Ron Paul 50%
December 24th, 2007 at 6:21 pm
Wow, people think Mike Huckabee is the second most conservative. Those that vote for Huck and believe this will get the ultimate bait and switch.
December 24th, 2007 at 6:23 pm
Tommy,
Since you tallied the ‘moderates’ and ‘liberals’ together, here’s one more contrived combination you (and Scott) didn’t create, that tells, with the very same data, a slightly different narrative than the one being reported:
Conservative/Moderate
Fred Thompson 86%
Rudy Giuliani 82%
John McCain 81%
Mike Huckabee 75%
Mitt Romney 73%
Ron Paul 50%
December 24th, 2007 at 6:26 pm
If one thing can come out of this primary, besides a nominee, I cannot hope any more than I already do than it is the recognition that these primaries that lack a party favorite are not good for the GOP.
It might also serve us well to not pick a favorite who is up for re-election without having a standby.
December 24th, 2007 at 6:36 pm
Aron,
I just went by the numbers posted. Didn’t add anything else to the story…
December 24th, 2007 at 6:54 pm
Do any of you know if there will be a daily Rass poll out at all today or will we have to wait until after Christmas?
December 24th, 2007 at 6:56 pm
Dec. 27 will be the next one.
December 24th, 2007 at 7:52 pm
Aron,
Rassmussen should be better at this . . . but drawing conclusions without excluding the undecideds is just bad stats/logic.
Apparently there were a lot of “undecideds” on ROmney . . . since he has a lower “liberal” percentage than everybody but Fred.
The tallies for Romney only add up to 81%
Here’s the totals for Everybody (Conservative + Moderate + Liberal):
Rudy 94%
McCain 90%
Fred 89%
Huckabee 84%
Romney 81%
Paul 64%
Therefore, I think drawing conclusions based on these whole number percentages is highly suspect.
By extension I’ve calculated the numbers again excluding the obvious undecideds.
Conservative:
Fred 56%
Huckabee 51%
Romney 47%
Paul 38%
McCain 34%
Rudy 21%
Moderate:
Rudy 66%
McCain 56%
Romney 43%
Paul 41%
Fred 40%
Huckabee 38%
Liberal:
Paul 22%
Rudy 13%
Huckabee 11%
McCain 10%
Romney 10%
Fred 3%
Re-calculating the others
Cons/Mod:
Fred 97%
McCain 90%
Romney 90%
Huckabee 89%
Rudy 87%
Mod/Lib:
Rudy 79%
McCain 66%
Paul 62%
Huckabee 49%
Romney 53%
Fred 44%
FWIW
December 24th, 2007 at 7:54 pm
“Romney is now viewed as politically conservative by 38% of Republican voters and moderate or liberal by 43%. Those figures reflect an eight-point decline in the number seeing him as conservative and a ten-point increase in the number seeing him as moderate or liberal.”
An eight-point decline? Behold the awesome power of the Romney message machine. Apparently repeating the words “conservative” and “strength” over and over again has failed to convince anyone.
Hey, maybe, just maybe, Romney isn’t the one candidate who can “unite” the conservative movement. Just a thought!
December 24th, 2007 at 8:27 pm
Here are the results from the poll conducted November 5-11:
Conservative/Moderate/Liberal
Mitt Romney 46%/26%/7%
Fred Thompson 40%/34%/3%
Mike Huckabee 38%/20%/6%
John McCain 28%/53%/11%
Rudy Giuliani 21%/60%/10%
Ron Paul 16%/26%/16%
Conservative/Moderate
Rudy Giuliani 81%
John McCain 81%
Fred Thompson 74%
Mitt Romney 72%
Mike Huckabee 58%
Ron Paul 42%
Moderate/Liberal
Rudy Giuliani 70%
John McCain 64%
Ron Paul 42%
Fred Thompson 37%
Mitt Romney 33%
Mike Huckabee 26%
December 24th, 2007 at 10:43 pm
Re: Huckabee:
“Still, 43% view him a politically conservative (up five points from a month ago”
Someone’s been smoking something.
If you are a conservative, it would appear that Fred Thompson should be your candidate. Just sayin’…
Merry Christmas!
December 24th, 2007 at 11:06 pm
Laziness rules with the Fredheads.
December 24th, 2007 at 11:30 pm
Tommy,
The “update” from Aron is highly misleading . . . it doesn’t take into account the undecideds.
The more accurate list would be
Cons/Mod:
Fred 97%
McCain 90%
Romney 90%
Huckabee 89%
Rudy 87%