- Mitt Romney 29%
- John McCain 21%
- Rudy Giuliani 19%
- Mike Huckabee 7%
- Ron Paul 4%
- Fred Thompson 4%
- Duncan Hunter 1%
- Don’t Know 14%
Second Choice
- Mitt Romney 20%
- Rudy Giuliani 19%
- John McCain 12%
- Mike Huckabee 9%
- Ron Paul 4%
- Fred Thompson 3%
- Duncan Hunter 2%
- Tom Tancredo 2%
- Don’t Know 26%
Regardless of how you plan to vote, who do you believe will be the next president of the United States?
- Mitt Romney 19%
- Hillary Clinton 17%
- Rudy Giuliani 13%
- John McCain 6%
- Barack Obama 3%
- Mike Huckabee 2%
Among Men
- Mitt Romney 29%
- John McCain 23%
- Rudy Giuliani 16%
Among Women
- Mitt Romney 28%
- Rudy Giuliani 21%
- John McCain 20%
Among Independents
- Mitt Romney 29%
- Rudy Giuliani 21%
- John McCain 21%
- Ron Paul 9%
- Mike Huckabee 4%
- Fred Thompson 4%
How confident are you that your candidate can beat the Democrat in 2008?
(Extremely/Very/Somewhat/Not Very)
- Giuliani voters 29%/32%/29%/7%
- McCain voters 19%/35%/31%/10%
- Romney voters 15%/36%/39%/7%
Survey of 500 likely Republican primary voters was conducted November 27-29. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.
November 30th, 2007 at 3:56 pm
Imagine FoxNews would have Rudy in second.
November 30th, 2007 at 3:58 pm
OUCH!…more NH Repubs think Hill would be Pres than Rudy
At leat Mitt wins out there….
November 30th, 2007 at 4:02 pm
well…, that one needs to be read as “28% of NH GOP thinks the GOP will win, 22%, the Dems.”
November 30th, 2007 at 4:04 pm
Well, this last portion of the poll just proves that NH voters have completely lost touch with reality.
November 30th, 2007 at 4:05 pm
Man, those ads for Rudy sure are working magic. rudy better be careful encouraging huckabee. he is now possibly surging in sc and fl. if that is true, it may be a rudy huck race by the time florida comes around.
November 30th, 2007 at 4:06 pm
Abe,
Here are the results to that question among all likely New Hampshire primary voters:
Hillary Clinton 29%
Mitt Romney 11%
Barack Obama 9%
Rudy Giuliani 8%
John Edwards 3%
John McCain 3%
Bill Richardson 1%
Mike Huckabee 1%
November 30th, 2007 at 4:07 pm
FoxNews is decidedly Pro-Giuliani, and any poll from them, for me is highly suspect.
November 30th, 2007 at 4:09 pm
“Iowans Pick Corn, New Hampshirers Pick Presidents” -Judd Gregg
November 30th, 2007 at 4:09 pm
Good result for McCain.
November 30th, 2007 at 4:10 pm
Jared: FoxNews is decidedly Pro-Giuliani, and any poll from them, for me is highly suspect.
Funny that the pro-Rudy FoxNews had him in third behind McCain, isn’t it. Of course, I try not to take any single poll too seriously.
But I wouldn’t mind J-Mac at #2 in NH.
November 30th, 2007 at 4:16 pm
Here are some of the more interesting findings from the poll’s internals:
Romney 29%
Certain to support 32%
May change mind 34%
McCain 21%
Certain to support 26%
May change mind 22%
Giuliani 19%
Certain to support 21%
May change mind 24%
Second choice of Romney voters
Giuliani 45%
McCain 29%
Huckabee 13%
Thompson 7%
Paul 4%
Second choice of Giuliani voters
Romney 69%
McCain 25%
Huckabee 3%
Thompson 2%
Paul 1%
Second choice of McCain voters
Romney 40%
Giuliani 36%
Huckabee 14%
Paul 7%
Thompson 2%
Second choice of Huckabee voters
Romney 42%
McCain 24%
Giuliani 19%
Paul 6%
Thompson 6%
November 30th, 2007 at 4:17 pm
Looks McCain might have a shot.
November 30th, 2007 at 4:20 pm
Aron, “NH Repubs” ….. and Rudy is behind Hillary
November 30th, 2007 at 4:20 pm
12 for what?
November 30th, 2007 at 4:23 pm
Aron #11,
The majority of supporters of Giuliani, McCain, and Huckabee all have Romney as their second choice??
Sounds like the consensus candidate to me.
November 30th, 2007 at 4:29 pm
A few more that caught my eye…
Among Men
Romney 29%
McCain 23%
Giuliani 16%
Among Women
Romney 28%
Giuliani 21%
McCain 20%
Among Independents
Romney 29%
Giuliani 21%
McCain 21%
Paul 9%
Huckabee 4%
Thompson 4%
How confident are you that your candidate can beat the Democrat in 2008?
(Extremely/Very/Somewhat/Not Very)
Giuliani 29%/32%/29%/7%
McCain 19%/35%/31%/10%
Romney 15%/36%/39%/7%
November 30th, 2007 at 4:34 pm
That last set in #16 is very interesting.
November 30th, 2007 at 4:36 pm
Like I’ve been saying, if Huckabee wins Iowa, McCain will win New Hampshire.
November 30th, 2007 at 4:37 pm
“FoxNews is decidedly Pro-Giuliani, and any poll from them, for me is highly suspect.”
I wouldn’t dismiss Fox polls so quickly. If I recall the Fox poll is one of the few polls that showed Kerry ahead in 2004. Granted that wasn’t the true result, but it was a close election and I doubt anyone would say that Fox News Channel has ever been decidedly pro-Kerry. The poll just is what it is and the methodology is no worse than that of any other pollster.
November 30th, 2007 at 4:37 pm
16, If McCain gets the current facts out about how he’s polling against Dems, he might be able to switch places with Rudy on the electability part, and it could mean a considerable upswing for him.
November 30th, 2007 at 4:41 pm
John,
Maybe, but I think McCain is riskier. His numbers are too wedded to The Surge in Iraq. It was an honorable position for the man to take. He had the right ideas on that issue before others – true, but if the War goes downhill again, his numbers will plummet just as quickly. Do we want to have to hinge our hopes on that to win next year? I’m all for victory in Iraq, but lets keep in mind that moreso than any other candidate, McCain’s favorably polling rests on things far beyond his control.
November 30th, 2007 at 4:46 pm
I think it’s time to update the Power Rankings again. The only problem is I don’t know
how I would rank them. But I think there’s a good argument to move McCain and esp. Fred
down, and Huck up. Maybe something like this:
1. Rudy (tie)
2. Mitt (tie)
3. Mike
4. John
5. Fred
6. Who cares?
What do all of you think?
November 30th, 2007 at 4:53 pm
I think that based on the new IA polling there is less of a reason to put him in a tie for first than there was when he was still leading in the state by double digits. But if you keep it like:
1. Rudy
2. Mitt
3. Huck
4. J-mac
5. Fred,
then I’m pretty much on board with your idea.
November 30th, 2007 at 4:54 pm
obviously I was referring to Mitt.
November 30th, 2007 at 4:56 pm
I thought it was also interesting that Mitt’s support, as usual, is educated, affluent, and old. All of those indicators are a mixed blessing. You’re likely always happy when smart people support you, but he does have a ways to go in being able to appeal to the “masses”. McCain, in contrast, has always gotten a large level of support from less affluent, uneducated Americans. That said, it’s possible lack of education is something like a lagging indicator. I.e, presumably less educated people are paying less attention to the race and therefore, plausibly, they’re more likely to support familiar names. I’m somewhat skeptical of that though, given that Romney, as the former Mass Governor, is a reasonably familiar name.
November 30th, 2007 at 4:59 pm
ColoradoRepublican,
“6. Who cares?”
Yep, who cares about somebody who raises more money in Q4 than anybody raised in Q3?
I think Paul’s impact is limited, but consider the latest NH results:
6% (RCP)
6.9% (Pollster.com)
November 30th, 2007 at 5:07 pm
Here’s some possible numbers following an IA loss by Romney: he starts with 29% support, of which 34% may change their mind. Assume they all change their mind, and Romney drops to about 19%. Of the 9.86% that switch, 45% (or 4.5%) go to Giuliani to put him at 23.5, 29% (or 3%) go to McCain for 24%, and 13% (or a little over 1%) go to Huckabee for 8%. This would put us at:
McCain 24%
Giuliani 23.5%
Romney 19%
Huckabee 8%
This is, of course, highly speculative, but I think it shows that there are only two options in NH: either a decisive Romney win, or a complete toss up. Huckabee, however, doesn’t stand a chance in NH.
November 30th, 2007 at 5:17 pm
Here’s my ranking as of November 30th, AD 2007, 2:16pm (PST):
1. Rudy
2. Huck
3. McCain
4. Mitt
5. Fred
6. Paul
Luckily for Mitt, Huck has passed him in Iowa now as opposed to in a few weeks, which changes the expectations game there.
November 30th, 2007 at 5:40 pm
#27. I like posts like this, nice analysis of the available data. If Romney suffers a double-digit loss in IA(highly unlikely), NH could become a tossup between Rudy and John.
November 30th, 2007 at 5:45 pm
A Democratic friend of mine opined to me over beers last night that the GOP race will be one between Huckabee and McCain. I once would have considered this absurd, but it’s now plausible. Imagine: Huck wins IA, McCain wins NH (per the logic in #27), McCain goes on to win McCain-friendly Michigan, and Huck comes back in SC. Romney’s gone. Fred’s gone. All that’s left is Rudy’s supposed Florida firewall, but I suspect that both Huck and McCain would have surpassed Rudy by then in Florida and all the Super Tuesday states except New York and New Jersey. The MSM will frame it a Huck/McCain race. And at that point, if McCain is the only one who can save us from Nominee Huckabee, well, go, John, go.
November 30th, 2007 at 5:54 pm
It is safe to say that whoever wins FL will win big on Feb05 and become the defacto nominee.
November 30th, 2007 at 7:02 pm
#28 Okay, I’ll give you Paul. I had merely sacrificed him for my poor attempt at humor.
But wait a minute. How in the world do you explain McCain at #3?? And don’t tell me it’s
because of NH. With Romney with a huge lead, and everybody else’s second choice as well, he
will still win NH even with a loss to Huck in IA. Explain yourself please.
November 30th, 2007 at 7:24 pm
FoxNews is decidedly Pro-Giuliani, and any poll from them, for me is highly suspect.
I think you might feel more comfortable in the Ron Paul camp.
November 30th, 2007 at 7:37 pm
32. ColoradoRepublican,
Talking about leads when it comes to early primary or caucuses polls isn’t that relevant. That is for two main reasons.
First, because there is usually a large number of voters who are undecided or relatively plastic in their choice. The example of Huckabee in the last few weeks demonstrates this, as he has rocketed into first in Iowa and third in Florida.
Second, if Huckabee wins Iowa, this will probably diminish Romney’s showing in New Hampshire. If McCain pulls off a strong second place in New Hampshire, after the media narrative was that his campaign was ‘dead’, this gives him momentum going into the next contests, including Nevada, Michigan, and Florida.
On the other hand, a Romney win in NH does not give him a ‘momentum story’, it merely maintains the status quo. A strong second by McCain in NH does give him a momentum story.
McCain’s numbers nationally and in NH have leveled off, as the ‘amnesty’ immigration bill he supported fades into the background and there is a perception that things are improving in Iraq (following his championed surge). Meanwhile, his opponents ignore him and continue to attack each other.
That is why I have McCain #3, Mitt #4.
(I actually think the best thing that could happen for Mitt would be to drop into second in both Iowa and NH several weeks before the caucuses and primary. Then he has the chance of a very nice story line, where he snatches back Iowa and then surges to first in NH.)
November 30th, 2007 at 8:17 pm
All this talk about Huckabee being ahead in Iowa….Hasn’t only one poll showed him ahead? I think that once the Iowa people see the many flaws of Mike Huckabee, he’ll begin to drop. I think Huck will come in second in Iowa, and Mitt will win it, will cream everybody in NH, and will go on to take the next six. Once he does that, it’s Katie bar the door. His momentum will carry him on to carry most of the other states. If it weren’t for Fox News being so heaving in favor of Giuliani, they would call Rudy on all his dispicable past problems, including charging security for his excursions with his girl friend while he was still married to his second wife. I’ve said it before, if a man can’t get his own children to vote for him, do you realy think he’ll be able to win the Presidency?
November 30th, 2007 at 8:29 pm
i dont think a #2 finish for mitt in iowa is that big of a deal. the mitt supporters are not going to jump to huckabee in NH, and they’re not going to jump to rudy , if rudy puts in a #4 or #5 finish in iowa.