Here’s Scotty:
Rasmussen Reports Daily National Republican Primary Tracking Poll
- Giuliani – 24%
- Thompson – 16%
- Romney – 14%
- Huckabee – 12%
- McCain – 11%
Daily tracking results are from survey interviews conducted over four days ending last night. Each update includes approximately 600-650 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
October 31st, 2007 at 10:19 am
Ru-dy! Ru-dy! Ru-dy!
October 31st, 2007 at 10:26 am
It would appear the anti-Rudy people are coalescing around who???
October 31st, 2007 at 10:28 am
is hucks bump over? is this as high as he goes?
giuliani cannot be happy with such a lackluster national and soft lead among likely voters.
He needs to translate some of this lead into early states besides florida.
he seems to be losing in nh, getting trashed in ia, doing well in michigan and nevada but not leading necessariliy or by any signficant marigin and losing in south carolina. he has got to do better in some of these early states.
nationally, it is clear there is no really frontrunner. race is wide open. the states are going to play more a role this year than ever in the gop.
October 31st, 2007 at 10:30 am
What a logjam!
October 31st, 2007 at 10:32 am
Maybe delegates from NY, PA , FLA, CAL, CONN, MD, ILL, etc will have a say in who is nominated.
October 31st, 2007 at 10:41 am
Grant, I’d say so!
October 31st, 2007 at 10:42 am
“nationally, it is clear there is no really frontrunner.“
Riiiiight….
October 31st, 2007 at 10:43 am
Everyone should read what Dick Morris wrote today. He is the only pundit who understands the dynamics of this race.
October 31st, 2007 at 10:44 am
I just read the first 2 words of his column. It begins with “What If….”
October 31st, 2007 at 10:46 am
Also, Morris twice mentions that Republicans are not inclined to nominate a Mormon. Perhaps that’s why Mitt’s stuck at 11% nationally.
October 31st, 2007 at 10:48 am
Sad if Rudy truly becomes the “Kerry of 08″ by being the Anyone but Hillary candidate. Rudy needs to start campaining, even if it is more for the general election. Sad that the national poll frontrunner, is incapable of making inroads in the “very” early states.
October 31st, 2007 at 10:49 am
Metro…Dick Morris is a RUDY MAN. Why do you expect objective views from him, yet criticize Romney supporters for being subjective.
October 31st, 2007 at 10:50 am
This paragraph from Morris says it all:
Now for those of us dumbasses who don’t know politics like Morris let’s find out how many times Iowa and NH have voted together in an open Republican contests…
Let’s see… That number would be ZERO!
Geesh… Does Morris even think stuff through before he writes anymore? Or does he just write these articles in a stream-of-consciousness, let’r flow fashion?
October 31st, 2007 at 10:52 am
After a few days of similar numbers, it seems safe to say Rudy has a small lead nationally, and you can throw a blanket over 2-5. Of course these numbers will change radically in the next 3 months, so all it really establishes now is who is actually in the game.
But I am encouraged to see Huckabee within 4 of Thompson, and leading Thompson in Iowa and New Hampshire. I expect Huckabee to overtake Thompson in the Rasmussen poll in the next 3 weeks.
October 31st, 2007 at 10:53 am
Thompson on the decline. Any bets on when he’ll be below 10%?
October 31st, 2007 at 10:55 am
Kavon…this is an attempt by Dick Morris to limit the potential success of Romney. Continued comments like this attempt to limit the momentum of a possible Mitt IA and NH win, by combining the two as a single state victory.
Again…Dick is a RUDY GUY. His comments, at times helpful, should be taken with grain of salt. Dick also said a few months ago that no GOP candidate could beat Hillary and that she would win in 08.
October 31st, 2007 at 11:01 am
It is fine if Morris likes Rudy, his vote still only counts as one.
October 31st, 2007 at 11:09 am
Is Tommy Oliver on vacation?
Where are the other Fred supporters?
If Fred keeps tanking I expect Huckabee could become #2 in national polling (nationwide evangelicals plust some Fair Tax support, plus being the only Southern guy REALLY in the race is a good formula for national poll numbers).
We’ll see how it all plays out.
October 31st, 2007 at 11:09 am
dick morris is the biggest moron. Everything he says has some kind of bias or agenda behind it.
I don’t listen to anything he says. was argemnon joking?
October 31st, 2007 at 11:12 am
Haven’t seen Oliver lately – maybe he’s jumped off the Fred ship
October 31st, 2007 at 11:14 am
to say that romney wins both ia and nh and then the gop will panic because he is mormon? where is he getting this crap? what an idiot.
dick morris is a slime ball. isn’t his name on the dc madam’s hooker list.
October 31st, 2007 at 11:30 am
Dick Morris wrote and said many, many months ago that Mitt Romney had no chance to win the GOP nomination. Ever since, he has been doing what he can to make sure Romney doesn’t get it. Otherwise, Morris will once again be proven wrong.
October 31st, 2007 at 11:31 am
Morris knows that Romney is going to win NH, so he’s conceding it while continuing to rain on Mitt’s parade later in the calendar.
October 31st, 2007 at 11:41 am
Morris is right. His point is that in January the field will be reduced to two candidates. Romney and the anti-Romney.
After Romney wins in Iowa and New Hampshire he will be the front runner and his enemies will all rally behind a single candidate as a way to stop him. People will have a choice: they can either join the romney wave or oppose it. It will be a completely different ball game. Whether or not the anti-romney forces are greater in number than the pro-Romney is something we’ll have to see.
Rudy, Mike and Fred are all fighting in effect to have the privilege of becoming the anti-romney. I think, and so does Morris, that Huck will be the man. Especially if he finishes second in Iowa.
October 31st, 2007 at 11:45 am
Argamenon, if you think this race will boil down to a Mormon vs. a Baptist preacher, than you are totally out of touch with half of the GOP.
October 31st, 2007 at 11:46 am
And in some alternate universe where that happened, the GOP would become a laughingstock and would be finished.
October 31st, 2007 at 11:46 am
Jeff Fuller,
Re: #18, I hope you’re right, and I’m sure that’s the Huckabee campaign’s plan.
He’s got to finish Thompson in Iowa and New Hampshire, and if he beats them both places (especially by say 5 or more points), I think he does it. From there, he has to beat Romney and Guiliani in South Carolina to stay viable.
October 31st, 2007 at 12:00 pm
I don’t see anything in Morris’ column to upset anyone. Indeed it all seems conventional wisdom, if not hackneyed. What I found interesting is that he gives Obama a chance, which could possibly mean a Romney-Obama contest. I am wondering which would America fear most.
October 31st, 2007 at 12:11 pm
Pablo,
“What I found interesting is that he gives Obama a chance”
That would have to be premised on Obama beating Hillary in Iowa, preferably by a “shocking” margin. From there, he would need to have a LOT of Democrats decide that Hillary is too beatable in November, which given Rasmussen’s recent analysis (Hillary polls between 45-48% no matter which Republican she is matched against), may be true.
I haven’t watched the Dems polls very much, but my understanding is that other than Iowa and (of course) Illinois, Hillary is thumping Obama everywhere.
October 31st, 2007 at 12:46 pm
True MWS, but Hillary enjoys the same high name ID that Rudy does. The Clinton name in dem circles is equivalent to Reagan’s in the GOP. That is why if he can pull off Iowa he will get a huge boost as a Clinton-slayer.
October 31st, 2007 at 6:58 pm
“Argamenon, if you think this race will boil down to a Mormon vs. a Baptist preacher, than you are totally out of touch with half of the GOP.”
Exactly which “half” are you talking about Metro? The anti-Religious athiests like yourself? Sorry, they make up half the DNC, not the RNC. The “half” that supports abortion? Sorry, last time I checked, less than 1/5 of the GOP feels that way.