- Rudy Giuliani 31% (32%)
- John McCain 18% (15%)
- Fred Thompson 17% (21%)
- Mitt Romney 9% (9%)
- Mike Huckabee 8% (4%)
- Ron Paul 3% (1%)
- Tom Tancredo 1% (1%)
- Don’t Know 8% (6%)
Second Choice
- Rudy Giuliani 20%
- John McCain 19%
- Fred Thompson 15%
- Mitt Romney 11%
- Mike Huckabee 5%
- Ron Paul 3%
- Tom Tancredo 2%
Survey of 648 registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents was conducted October 17-23. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll released in September are in parentheses.
General Election Match-Up
- Hillary Clinton 51%
- Rudy Giuliani 43%
Survey of 1,607 registered voters was conducted October 17-23. The margin of error is +/- 2.5 percentage points.
October 31st, 2007 at 6:15 pm
This poll doesn’t even survey likely voters, just anyone that ever registered as a Republican. What a waste of time and money.
October 31st, 2007 at 6:33 pm
No Greg, it is not a waste of time and money. It does tell us something. What exactly that is always open to debate.
October 31st, 2007 at 6:44 pm
Poor Mitt. Back to 10.8% nationally in the RCP average. I’ll be able to throw another party when he hits single digits… AGAIN.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-192.html
October 31st, 2007 at 6:48 pm
Well, we’ve had more than one poll come out today that shows Romney at 14%, not 9%, AND we know that, at least nationally, independents favor Rudy – yet in many states, independents do not vote in the GOP primary. A waste of time? Maybe not. Less Believeable than two polls that came out today which verify each other? yes.
October 31st, 2007 at 6:51 pm
Yada, yada National Poll. Yada, yada unelectable. Yada, yada spending more per point than anyone.
/yawn
October 31st, 2007 at 6:56 pm
ACT, the nice thing about RCP is that it’s an average of ALL OF THEM.
October 31st, 2007 at 7:07 pm
“ACT, the nice thing about RCP is that it’s an average of ALL OF THEM.”
Perhaps, but it is also a fact the RCP lags far behind current polls. I also think it is interesting that you love to drag individual polls into the spotlight when Romney is down, yet reference the RCP average when polls show him back up.
btw, I know its ARG, but why have we not seen the results of the new S.C. poll on here?
October 31st, 2007 at 7:19 pm
Bad GE match up for Rudy– minus 8 . . . ouch. I’m sure it’s worse for everyone else, but that is just another ding in the “electibility” arguement.
Rudy does have a commanding lead among the GOP though. His RCP average should be widening with the fall of Fred.
Poll looks like good news for:
Huck (doubles and on Mitt’s heels)
McCain (slight surge and good 2nd choice showing)
Neutral for:
Romney (though he’s one of the only ones that has a higher 2nd choice vote than 1st choice vote)
Rudy (no positive trend and he’s very challenged in the 2nd choice votes)
Bad for:
Fred (any surprise there?)
October 31st, 2007 at 7:23 pm
ACT,
All three ARG polls showing Mitt winning (NH, IA, and SC) went up yesterday (all clustered together)
Just an FYI
October 31st, 2007 at 7:24 pm
Fred is not doing well…especially at Intrade. Speaking of that, where’s Tommy Oliver? He was ramping up post after post and then dropped off.
October 31st, 2007 at 7:26 pm
Metro (Re: #3),
Schadenfreude is hardly a recipe for success or happiness in life. But, maybe that explains your frequent rants and raves.
October 31st, 2007 at 7:35 pm
5, how bout this one. Mitt fares no better in general elections in the states he’s pouring his life savings into: Iowa, NH, and South Carolina.
How does a mittbot spin that?
October 31st, 2007 at 7:35 pm
ACT, $#&*(#$&(#$*& you. You said the same thing yesterday, and I corrected you both before and after you said it.
I ALWAYS POINT TO THE RCP AVERAGE. I NEVER DRAW CONCLUSIONS ON INDIVIDUAL POLLS. CAPICE??
Don’t ever accuse me of that again. I’ve been the consistent RCP average guy on here– ALWAYS.
I even defend Rasmussen as the most accurate national pollster, when Rudy is WEAKEST there. CAPICE?
I referred to a single Rasmussen poll to make fun of you guys, because that’s what YOU do, and you say you love Rasmussen most.
Don’t ever accuse me of being a single poll guy again. The record is clear.
October 31st, 2007 at 7:37 pm
Why is it that the word “Schadenfreude” keeps coming up from Romney supporters? It’s not only Jeff, right? Are you guys all working off talking points?
October 31st, 2007 at 7:40 pm
“All three ARG polls showing Mitt winning (NH, IA, and SC) went up yesterday (all clustered together)”
Hmmm. My mistake then, I’ve been getting home late that past few nights, and didn’t see them.
–
Sampo – I believe the last General Election poll I saw out of NH had Romney as the only candidate leading Hillary – that was a while ago, but I don’t think I’ve seen a different one.
October 31st, 2007 at 7:46 pm
Metro,
You Italian?
October 31st, 2007 at 7:48 pm
General Electability in Iowa:
1. (tie) Giuliani and McCain(Hillary +5)
3. (tie) Romney and Thompson(Hillary +8)
5. Huckabee (Hillary +10)
If this is the best Romney fares when he’s wheeled out his 5 country-serving sons, his wife, the Mittmobile (pun intended), and millions upon millions upon millions of dollars we’re in some tough shape nominating Romney, fellas!
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=5f8bea0b-ce9c-494f-922c-9252bae2d741
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=2dbaa9be-dfa7-499e-9aa6-e748067ea7ca
October 31st, 2007 at 7:48 pm
Drat these span filters.
General Electability in Iowa:
1. (tie) Giuliani and McCain(Hillary +5)
3. (tie) Romney and Thompson(Hillary +8)
5. Huckabee (Hillary +10)
If this is the best Romney fares when he’s wheeled out his 5 country-serving sons, his wife, the Mittmobile (pun intended), and millions upon millions upon millions of dollars we’re in some tough shape nominating Romney, fellas!
surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=5f8bea0b-ce9c-494f-922c-9252bae2d741
surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=2dbaa9be-dfa7-499e-9aa6-e748067ea7ca
October 31st, 2007 at 7:52 pm
Romney is “wins” over Hillary by one in the NH poll. Giuliani is tied. McCain wasn’t polled. For rudy to poll at least 10 points lower than Romney in the primary and basically be equally strong against Hillary, these are some bad bad numbers for Romney.
October 31st, 2007 at 8:05 pm
Thanks, sampo!
October 31st, 2007 at 8:22 pm
Speaking of that, where’s Tommy Oliver? He was ramping up post after post and then dropped off.
Currently on vacation… First real chance I’ve had to post at all. Intrade matters little to me, personally. I’ll see y’all later…
October 31st, 2007 at 8:27 pm
Plus, I’m just quietly biding my time until the next reported sex scandal hits the airwaves from the LA Times, then I’ll be out with guns blazing…
October 31st, 2007 at 8:52 pm
Hey Tommy, just wondering if you were still around. Fred is not my guy but I can’t help having a soft spot for the guy. By most accounts, he’s not doing too well of late. I was getting used to your front page posts rebuttals.
Enjoy your vacation!
November 1st, 2007 at 7:07 am
I will be voting for Rudy in the primary, but every Republican will get my vote in the general election. That said, these results aren’t so bad in RG/HRC matchup. According to the news story related to this poll, only 25% of the respondents were actually Republican while 33% were Democrats. After the pollsters factored in which way independents leaned, the number of Republicans tallied only 36%, with Dems and leaners over 50%. That suggests to me that Rudy is holding on to his base and picking up far more Dems and leaners and actual independents than HRC. Also, the poll shows HRC winning the South which shows the numbers and percentages there highly skewed. General election poll seems generally flawed.
November 1st, 2007 at 9:14 am
Scott why do you want to know if Metro is Italian??