We see oscilations in Fred and Rudy’s support but the meaningful change has been the rise of Huckabee from 5% to 12% in a couple weeks. Everything else we’ve seen before.
I think Mitt will over take Fred in the national polls very soon. Very impressed with Huckabee’s rise to this point but
I don’t believe it will be enough to win him the nomination and in the end most of his support will flock to Mitt when the early states cast their votes.
Hucks national polling RCP averages have gone up 2.45% since the values voters conference and 4% since the month of september. Not a huge rise. We have no real idea of how lasting this bump is and if he can materialize it. So far todays Rasmussen does not point to a scenerio where we can, especially in light of the negative press Huckabee is now getting.
Here is a simple graph of Hucks trends compared to Romney’s, nationally- based on RCP numbers.
I know you were referring to Rasmussen only, but taken on the whole Hucks “rise” has not been as meteoric as people suggest. Is Iowa jump is even less impressive.
I said it during the last Rasmussen poll update and I’ll say it again here.
3rd=4th=5th when everyone’s within M.O.E. Although, last time it was more of a dead heat, now it’s more of a closely bound pack. But the Rassmussen polls are virtually identical so there is not much that can be inferred between now and then.
mitt doesn’t need to pass up anybody nationally. obviously it is not having much of an impact on early voters.
none of these really matter. wha tis significant about them is that nobody really has a lead nationally among likely gop voters. this makes the early states all the more imporatnt this year.
ilfigo, I ditto UA. I always refer to the RCP average, not to individual polls. I was making fun of you Rombots for doing so and then getting stung by it.
Let’s just try to use a little simple logic. Thompson is doing nothing in the early states. Guiliani is doing nothing. Romney will win both Iowa and NH. Once that happens, the more conservative elements will jump on Romney’s ship, and he will cream everybody from then on. Rudy will get some of McCain’s voters, but Romney will get nearly all of Huckabee and Thompson, unless they sell out to Guiliani, who is essentially a Democrat.
Bob Thomas, there is so much wrong there, but I’ll just name two: 1. You haven’t looked at polling internals and are simply wrong about who is the 2nd choice for whom. 2. You’re helping Team Romney to screw up the expectations game.
Isn’t it funny – when Mitt is down in national polls, like the one yesterday, Anti-Romney people like Metro like to point to the specific poll, when Romney starts rising again, they like to point to the RCP average.
Why in the heck does this site still show Thompson as tied for second? He has almost no path to the nomination at all. By historical standards Mitt Romney should be shown number one, because he is going to steamroll the first several primaries/caucuses and then its ‘Katie bar the door’ for everyone else. I say its 1. Romney 2. Guiliani 3. (Tie) McCain, Thompson, Huckabee), and who cares after that?
October 30th, 2007 at 1:08 pm
My observation from last week is holding up.
Giuliani fluctuations seems directly tied to his exchanging voters with McCain.
October 30th, 2007 at 1:08 pm
McCain is 5th nationally!!!
(a hopefully obvious “parody” about how Mitt was in “Fifth nationally” yesterday).
These daily tracking polls are really wierd anyways.
October 30th, 2007 at 1:08 pm
McCain is 5th nationally!!!
(a hopefully obvious “parody” about how Mitt was in “Fifth nationally” yesterday).
These daily tracking polls are really wierd anyways.
October 30th, 2007 at 1:10 pm
Jeff,
Huckabee really seems to be sinking.
October 30th, 2007 at 1:18 pm
And Romney really rising.
October 30th, 2007 at 1:29 pm
lol – funny how these numbers can make or break your mood depending on how your candidate does
October 30th, 2007 at 1:30 pm
Is anyone excited about Fred anymore???
October 30th, 2007 at 1:33 pm
#7
I think more and more people are jumping ship each day
October 30th, 2007 at 1:37 pm
We see oscilations in Fred and Rudy’s support but the meaningful change has been the rise of Huckabee from 5% to 12% in a couple weeks. Everything else we’ve seen before.
October 30th, 2007 at 1:39 pm
I agree with Econ Grad Stud.
Did I just say that?
October 30th, 2007 at 1:43 pm
Oh my. I have to agree, too. That’s not good.
October 30th, 2007 at 1:47 pm
I think Mitt will over take Fred in the national polls very soon. Very impressed with Huckabee’s rise to this point but
I don’t believe it will be enough to win him the nomination and in the end most of his support will flock to Mitt when the early states cast their votes.
October 30th, 2007 at 1:51 pm
I thought Tancredo was going to drop out if the Rockies lost – what happened to that?
October 30th, 2007 at 1:51 pm
Ray, Mitt is falling in the RCP average, where he’s been behind McCain for 2 months.
For him to pass up Fred he’d first have to pass up McCain.
October 30th, 2007 at 1:52 pm
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-192.html
October 30th, 2007 at 2:05 pm
Econ,
Hucks national polling RCP averages have gone up 2.45% since the values voters conference and 4% since the month of september. Not a huge rise. We have no real idea of how lasting this bump is and if he can materialize it. So far todays Rasmussen does not point to a scenerio where we can, especially in light of the negative press Huckabee is now getting.
Here is a simple graph of Hucks trends compared to Romney’s, nationally- based on RCP numbers.
I know you were referring to Rasmussen only, but taken on the whole Hucks “rise” has not been as meteoric as people suggest. Is Iowa jump is even less impressive.
October 30th, 2007 at 2:06 pm
The +VV on the graph I link to, means “post Values Voters.”
October 30th, 2007 at 2:07 pm
The +VV on the graph I link to, means “post Values Voters.”
October 30th, 2007 at 2:10 pm
I said it during the last Rasmussen poll update and I’ll say it again here.
3rd=4th=5th when everyone’s within M.O.E. Although, last time it was more of a dead heat, now it’s more of a closely bound pack. But the Rassmussen polls are virtually identical so there is not much that can be inferred between now and then.
October 30th, 2007 at 2:17 pm
Metro # 14-15: not to nitpick, but I believe for a couple of days a couple of weeks ago, Romney’s RCP average was slightly higher than McCain’s.
October 30th, 2007 at 2:17 pm
UA,
Romney wisely never took Tancredo up on that bet, in which the candidate from the losing team’s locale would drop out.
October 30th, 2007 at 2:18 pm
Or McCain and Romney were at least even in the RCP average.
October 30th, 2007 at 2:48 pm
#20 –
Maybe Tancredo will keep his part of the deal. He’s a good guy, but his time has come.
October 30th, 2007 at 2:51 pm
NOT TO NITPICK, people, but these national polls are almost totally irrelevant to the process.
October 30th, 2007 at 3:04 pm
mitt doesn’t need to pass up anybody nationally. obviously it is not having much of an impact on early voters.
none of these really matter. wha tis significant about them is that nobody really has a lead nationally among likely gop voters. this makes the early states all the more imporatnt this year.
October 30th, 2007 at 3:18 pm
Metro and UA where is your retraction as to your comments on Fri and Mon. about Mitt? Isn’t Rasmussen the most important poll? Its a bunch of BS.
October 30th, 2007 at 3:45 pm
What is there to retract? I still think Rasmussen is a good poll.
October 30th, 2007 at 3:51 pm
ilfigo, I ditto UA. I always refer to the RCP average, not to individual polls. I was making fun of you Rombots for doing so and then getting stung by it.
October 30th, 2007 at 4:15 pm
Let’s just try to use a little simple logic. Thompson is doing nothing in the early states. Guiliani is doing nothing. Romney will win both Iowa and NH. Once that happens, the more conservative elements will jump on Romney’s ship, and he will cream everybody from then on. Rudy will get some of McCain’s voters, but Romney will get nearly all of Huckabee and Thompson, unless they sell out to Guiliani, who is essentially a Democrat.
October 30th, 2007 at 4:18 pm
Can you read a graph Metro? Gov. Romney had been on a small upswing until that single Fox News outlier came out.
That’s hardly proof of falling numbers.
October 30th, 2007 at 4:28 pm
Bob Thomas, there is so much wrong there, but I’ll just name two: 1. You haven’t looked at polling internals and are simply wrong about who is the 2nd choice for whom. 2. You’re helping Team Romney to screw up the expectations game.
October 30th, 2007 at 4:46 pm
I’m not wrong… If Thompson or Huckabee supporters go any other way than Romney, they are selling out…
October 30th, 2007 at 8:45 pm
Isn’t it funny – when Mitt is down in national polls, like the one yesterday, Anti-Romney people like Metro like to point to the specific poll, when Romney starts rising again, they like to point to the RCP average.
October 30th, 2007 at 9:13 pm
ACT Blog, what the hell? Did you miss #28? Did you miss what I actually said yesterday?
Yesterday, today… and in the past… I ALWAYS refer to the RCP average if you want to know where the race stands.
YOU GUYS read into SINGLE POLLS, especially RASMUSSEN ONES, and that’s why I was throwing it in your face.
Are you really so dumb that you cannot see this?
October 31st, 2007 at 12:20 am
Metro,
Do you even need to ask? Of course ALL of us Romney supporters are “dumb”. Duuuuhhh!!
October 31st, 2007 at 7:58 pm
Why in the heck does this site still show Thompson as tied for second? He has almost no path to the nomination at all. By historical standards Mitt Romney should be shown number one, because he is going to steamroll the first several primaries/caucuses and then its ‘Katie bar the door’ for everyone else. I say its 1. Romney 2. Guiliani 3. (Tie) McCain, Thompson, Huckabee), and who cares after that?