(h/t Kevin W)
I don’t believe ARG polls anymore, but for those of you who do, here’s their latest from Iowa (with NH and SC to follow):
American Research Group Republican Iowa Caucus
- Romney – 27% (22)
- Huckabee – 19% (4)
- Giuliani – 16% (21)
- McCain – 14% (11)
- Thompson – 8% (16)
- Tancredo – 2% (1)
- Paul – 1% (2)
- All others – less than 1%
Survey was conducted Oct 26-29 of 600 likely Republican caucus goers, and has a 4% MoE. Numbers in parentheses are from their Sept poll.
Among Republicans, Romney leads Huckabee 26-19; among independents Romney leads Giuliani 31-20 with Huckabee at 17.
October 30th, 2007 at 10:54 am
Not like I trust ARG, but if this is true, Huckabee is taking from Thompson and picking up the undecideds, not pulling from Romney. Romney’s support has been surprisingly resilient. It will be tough to take him down.
I predict Huckabee will spike, and then begin to fade like Thompson once he faces the grilling like the rest have.
October 30th, 2007 at 11:06 am
wow, huck bump. this is much different than th u of i poll. two unreliable polls.
i sure hope this guy doesn’t gain too much more steam. i despise the big govvernmetn repubcliancs.
October 30th, 2007 at 11:08 am
The new ARG polls show reasonably comfortable leads for Mitt in Iowa, New Hampshire, and SC. The interesting thing in SC is that Fred has dropped to 10%, and if that’s as high as he can go in SC, he isn’t going to stay in the race long. More interesting to me than any of these 3 is their new Nevada poll that shows Rudy at 31% and Mitt at 30%, and everyone else in single digits. Nevada is on the same day as SC and will be important in helping to form perceptions about the race at that time. I think Mitt will win there for several reasons; e.g., Thompson’s 9% will go disproportionately to Mitt, Mitt’s victories in Iowa and NH will build momentum, etc. For whatever reason, ARG seems to over-poll Huckabee in Iowa. I’m not sure why that is.
October 30th, 2007 at 11:19 am
The interesting thing in the current conversation is the attention to the “religious” vote in Iowa. All indications point out that Huckabee is rising in those circles in IA, which makes him a contender. While there is much discussion of the “evangelical” vote, little consideration is given to the “Mormon” vote. It should be noted that concerns about Mormon voting power, historically, were somewhat responsible for their mistreatment in both Missouri and Illinois in the 1800′s. Past research has suggested that Mormon folks tend to be strong Republican voting blocs, from 85% to 90% in the past few presidential elections.
If we are liberal with some assumptions, look at the past numbers in the Republican caucuses in Iowa. In 1988, about 109,00 R turned out, in 1996 about 96,541 R turned out, and in 2000 about 86,539 R turned out. So, there will probably be between 85,000 and 110,000 Republicans for the Iowa caucuses. There are approximately 20,000 Mormons in Iowa. Say 12,000 are voter age, most of them Republican (may be a low estimate). If all of these turned out and voted, that’s 12-15% or so of the caucus vote. While Romney is not “targeting” these voters, some may feel a natural affinity for him as a candidate, just as other “religious” voters feel a natural affinity for Huckabee or Brownback (who explicitly try to exploit this appeal). If they turn out, that’s a small but significant “swing” vote that could go to benefit Romney in a tightly contested IA caucus.
October 30th, 2007 at 11:24 am
Interesting to note romney is at 24-29% in five out of the last 6 iowa polls form different polling firms, the diffence of course the Iowa U poll. So you can say that Iowa U is likely a outliner in terms of Romney high point.
October 30th, 2007 at 11:24 am
sean don’t be ridiculous. mormons have lost of babies. if there are 20,000 of them in ia, cut 1/3 out for bieng democrat, cut another 1/3 out for simply being too busy with life, and then cut like almost all of them out as being little children. then you have a few left who will show up.
i doubt that him being mormon guaranteed that 12 thousand mormons will show up. wishful and completly unrealistic thinking.
October 30th, 2007 at 11:26 am
By the way the Rass poll has Huckabee about 18% right?
October 30th, 2007 at 11:34 am
Sean,
Don’t get too liberal in your assumptions!
October 30th, 2007 at 11:35 am
http://www.sptimes.com/2007/10/30/State/Property_tax_cut_emer.shtml
Good News for Rudy in FL, this means High (Perhaps Record) turnout on the Republican side. This is also why Dems are upset with the DNC as it will likley pass. Christ has just move up the VP list folks.
October 30th, 2007 at 11:36 am
Sean,
There are more than 22,000 Mormons in the state. What makes them consequential is that Iowa is a caucus state. They would be a much smaller factor in a primary state. The vast majority of Mormons are Republicans or Independents, so you raise a significant point.
October 30th, 2007 at 11:55 am
Sean, you may be a little liberal in your assumptions, but not quite as liberal as dubious thinks. And also let me tell you if my experience with the campaign in Washington is any indicator, even though Romney and his national staff can keep on message about it not being a Mormon thing, lower level campaigners who they have less control over routinely plot how to exploit the Mormon vote. I’ve had a local evangelical who’s been very active in politics for a long, long time tell me he’s amazed at the number of Mormons that have been showing up and turning out for things here. Although Mormons are yes, very disproportionately conservative (as much or even more than evangelicals), they aren’t nearly as politicized. Mitt is changing that without really even trying, and as such Mormons are going to turn out in numbers that haven’t been seen before.
October 30th, 2007 at 12:10 pm
It seems the two big stories are the spike for Huck and the drop for Fred.
I heard a guest, on the Chris Matthews show back when Fred announced, say that Fred will get in and then be out by November. Chris said he had heard that from other “smart” people and said he tended to agree.
What do you think?
October 30th, 2007 at 12:44 pm
yes, but washington is a big city with lots of young mormons in college. the politicaly active type. of course a handful will show up to volunteer. i don’t think that holds true in iowa.
October 30th, 2007 at 12:49 pm
No way McCain is polling 14% in IA. NO WAY!!!!
ARG continues to poll lots of “independents” for the IA caucus which is simply silly.
Almost NO independents participate in either caucus because they would have to lose their “independent” status and register for either party.
McCain got less than 0.5% at the Ames Straw poll. THose motivated enough to caucus will not be voting for McCain.
October 30th, 2007 at 12:52 pm
Loving to see Huck’s “Bounce” in Iowa. He’s the clear #2 there and has a shot at going for Mitt. I like to keep those expectations high for the Huckster (since they’ve been saying that Romney has to win by double digits in IA or it’s really a “loss”)!
October 30th, 2007 at 3:09 pm
Finally, Thompson is where he should be! TV Stardom or not, he didn’t have “IT”.
October 31st, 2007 at 11:05 am
dubious-
I’m just waiting for you to back your point. Anyone can be skeptical about a claim, but your skepticism is unpersuasive if you don’t give substantive reasons for why Sean/PnGrata are wrong. (Both of them gave substantive explanations for their opinions.)
I tend to think they’re probably pretty close. Mormons I know tend to be very active politically and are very conservative (much more than the average American). With Romney running it seems logical that a higher percentage will come out to vote than in past elections. If less than 5k Mormons showed to vote for Mitt in Iowa, I would be surprised. I would not be surprised if the number was as high as the 10k or 12k previously suggested by Sean. Anything higher than that would be as surprising as a sub-5k showing. Based on Mormon population in Iowa, considering children & likely Democrats, my guess would be that Mitt gets 8k-10k Mormon votes.