An interesting aside from Scott Rasmussen yesterday points out that national general election polls tell us a lot more about Hillary Clinton than any of the Republican candidates – because she polls at an average of 48% against everybody.
Looking at other recent match-ups confirms the sense that what we’re seeing is primarily a reflection of attitudes about the Democratic frontrunner. In the latest Rasmussen Reports polling, Clinton gets 47% against Fred Thompson, 47% against Mitt Romney, 48% against Mike Huckabee, 44% against Rudy Giuliani, and 44% against John McCain. If you average the last three polls for Senator Clinton against each of these top five Republican hopefuls, Clinton’s support averages out at 48%. Using this three-poll average, Clinton attracts between 46% and 49% support no matter which Republican candidate is named in the survey (emphasis mine).
That’s against Romney, Giuliani, McCain, Thompson, Huckabee, and yes, even against Ron Paul (whom Clinton leads 48-38).
This is one of the few pieces of good news Republicans have heading into the 2008 general election. Hillary cannot muster more than 48% against any GOP candidate, even our second tier guys. For an election that is supposedly favoring the Democrats in a big way (Intrade currently has it at 63/35 that a Democrat wins the White House next year), Hillary topping out at two points below 50% is remarkable and welcome news – and shows that this thing is winnable after all.
October 30th, 2007 at 10:06 am
Great way to look at things, Matt C.!
October 30th, 2007 at 10:31 am
How do the GOP candidates poll against the other dems? Do any of them consistently score over 50%?
October 30th, 2007 at 10:36 am
Someone ought to post the new batch of ARG polls. IA, NH, SC with Romney leading all 3, FWIW.
http://americanresearchgroup.com/
October 30th, 2007 at 10:37 am
This is true, but we’re leaving out some sobering facts…
1. This is with 10-15 percent undecided. You’re living in the land of Oz if you think undecided voters would vote so lopsidedly.
2. In swing states, Hillary mops the floor in head-to-head polls unless she’s running against Giuliani or McCain. Even running against those two she is very strong.
3. Minority turnout typically votes for Dems and is relatively lower in elections. All the analysts agree minority turnout will be very strong with Hillary on the ticket, polls can’t predict turnout on the Dems side yet because they haven’t nominated anyone yet.
October 30th, 2007 at 10:41 am
This is a horrible way to look at things.
1. Look at the gap between Hillary and the Republican, then the undecideds, and you’ll see where we start.
2. We win based on the electoral college, not on national polls.
3. We’re a year out from the election…
October 30th, 2007 at 10:42 am
best poll of the 2008 race!
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/stephen_colbert_tops_ron_paul_and_dennis_kucinich_in_presidential_poll
October 30th, 2007 at 10:47 am
http://americanresearchgroup.com/
By the, everyone favorite polling firm is out.
October 30th, 2007 at 11:00 am
TLG,
You’ve missed the salient point. Hillary has a ceiling, above which she will not rise. The recent poll that showed 50% of likely voters would never vote for her gives you a pretty clear indication of where that ceiling is. The reason that I don’t believe Giuliani will win the GOP nomination is that he also has a ceiling, and it’s a lot lower than Hillary’s. There are only so many Republicans who will vote to nominate a person with Rudy’s social positions. When the race narrows sufficiently, but after Mitt has emerged as the only serious Rudy alternative, Rudy is toast.
October 30th, 2007 at 11:18 am
Dave, I thought you were more informed than that. I’ve studied the internals of every primary poll. One thing is clear: Rudy’s ceiling among Republicans is way over 50% for the primary.
October 30th, 2007 at 11:21 am
Dave,
“When the race narrows sufficiently, but after Mitt has emerged as the only serious Rudy alternative, Rudy is toast.”
Well said!!
October 30th, 2007 at 11:46 am
This is a very good sign for Republicans. They have room for growth; Hillary doesn’t.
October 30th, 2007 at 11:48 am
Metro,
If Rudy wins the nomination, I will happily acquiesce to your superior knowledge of GOP polling internals. I might even bow down and do a few salaams. In the meantime, I’m not worried.
October 30th, 2007 at 11:51 am
Fair enough.
October 30th, 2007 at 12:12 pm
You can be rid of so-cons once and for all.
October 30th, 2007 at 1:16 pm
How the race is lost-
1. Republicans nominate Guiliani
2. A third party candidate gets the protest vote from the religious right.
Hillary wins with 48% of the vote.
Wake up people! Guiliani is a dead end!
October 30th, 2007 at 1:21 pm
Thats right. Bill Clinton won with less than 50% of the vote because of Ross Perot. CC’s have already said they would run a third party candidate if Guiliani was nominated.
THE DEM’S ARE COUNTING ON THIS SCENARIO.
They want Guiliani to win the nomination.