Dave Keene, chairman of the American Conservative Union, tells Newsmax that he considers Romney the best positioned to win:
“Romney’s doing it the right way, in my view,” Keene says over lunch at the Palm. “My view’s colored by history, and these other guys seem to be betting that history doesn’t matter, and I’m not sure that’s true. If you win the first contest, and they’re close enough to the second contest, you get an enormous boost. And the idea that the onrush of big primaries makes those early contests unimportant may be 180 degrees wrong.”
The ACU has been around for awhile here in DC. They run CPAC and put out one of the most comprehensive congressional ratings directories.
Keene has also been a major figure at the NRA and looks to take the reins there in the next few years.
He notes this about the polls:
“If you assume for a moment that the propaganda from the Romney camp is accurate and the polls are right, he is in fact in a position that he could conceivably win Iowa, New Hampshire and then South Carolina. In that case, all these national polls showing him behind are completely irrelevant.”
Here’s Keene on the Romney ground game:
“But when you start talking to people out there, you find that while the other candidates are sort of running a national media campaigns, Romney’s on the ground and organizing. That gives him a tremendous opportunity, particularly against Rudy.”
…
“It’s hard to see Rudy pulling it off, unless he organized as well as Romney, and I don’t see him doing that,” Keene says. As a result, “Romney’s in the best position to get ahead when the contest actually starts. Giuliani has got his poll lead, but I don’t know what else he has.”
Keene had this to say about Thompson:
“Thompson could get back in it if he gets his act together,” Keene says. On the other hand, the idea of a resurgence for John McCain is totally unlikely, he says. “McCain is just coming up to a level of support he had in the past,” Keene says. “He can’t get beyond that.”
Lastly, Keene had some interesting comments about the race against Hillary:
“Given the current state of attitudes about President Bush and the Republicans, Hillary ought to be 15 to 20 points ahead,” Keene says. “The fact that she’s just four or five points ahead and is hovering mostly below 50 percentage points in the polls means she’s in deep trouble. She can win, but it’s not going to be easy for her. And that means that the Republican nomination is worth a lot more than what the common wisdom would suggest.”
October 30th, 2007 at 9:49 am
Booo!
October 30th, 2007 at 9:55 am
This is the way that I see the race: a 2-man race that Romney is more likely to win than Giuliani. The only exception I take to Keene’s reasoning is that I believe the key state is Michigan. Rudy can blunt the January juggernaut that Mitt has been putting together if he breaks through in Michigan. I don’t believe that he will break through in SC. Nevada, even if he were to win there might not be adequate to the task of stemming the tide. If Romney wins Michigan, he wins.
October 30th, 2007 at 10:00 am
It’s fun to watch commentators from peripheral groups try to wish their prejuidces into factuality. I wonder if Mr. Keene gritted his teeth and clenched his fists when he presented his opinions as though they were facts that can be verified.
October 30th, 2007 at 10:01 am
This is how David Keene can make an endorsement. He can single out which (conservative) is likely to win. The implicit subtext is: Vote Romney to prevent Rudy.
October 30th, 2007 at 10:01 am
Who is going to best be able to get voters out on some cold days in January?…..Mitt…..the Organizer
October 30th, 2007 at 10:07 am
Dave, except — We don’t and won’t ever have a two-man field. Trust me — you wouldn’t want a two-man field. Have you checked the poll internals? Rudy always, always, always wins in a two-way match-up.
McCain is Rudy’s only obstacle to the nomination right now, the bastard.
October 30th, 2007 at 10:29 am
TLG,
Timing, as they say, is everything. Romney needs McCain to stay in during NH, because McCain’s voters there would break disproportionately to Rudy. Romney needs a scattered field of opposition in SC to diffuse the anti-Mormon vote there. After that, however, Romney should have emerged as THE conservative in the race, and once that happens, he will win 2-man match-ups with Rudy.
October 30th, 2007 at 10:43 am
Dave, I always enjoy your comments. They are some of the most thoughtful, logical and intelligent on these threads.
October 30th, 2007 at 11:00 am
I would be interested to get an explanation of how, except for one or two manufactured issues, Romney is more conservative than Giuliani.
October 30th, 2007 at 11:11 am
word. he reallyi s in the best place to win. he has to hold on to his early state leads though, can he do it? we will see.
there really isn’t anybody else that can really compete with him except rudy. rudy’s strategy may be flawed though. if romney indeed does win both ia and nh, which he probably won’t, his lead in florida by the time orida votes will surely be diminished if not vanished.
huck is a one stater, fred is a no stater, rudy is national, mccain is a one stater. it is clearly a rudy romney race if you look at the early states. why all the attentino on antional polls?
October 30th, 2007 at 11:54 am
#9 Cliff,
I honestly don’t care who is “the most conservative”. I care tons more about who can actually get things done and lead an effective organization. I think when you examine the race under that lens of generally conservative and able to get things done, Rudy and Romney both win hands-down over everyone else. It’s hard to argue who’d be more effective between the two, but personally I think it would be Romney.
October 30th, 2007 at 12:30 pm
Cliff,
On fiscal, national defense, and foreign policy issues Rudy and Mitt are both quintessential right-wingers. But there are reasons to give the nod to Mitt:
1) Mitt would have never gone to the Supreme Court to eliminate the line-item veto. If Bush had the line-item veto, America would be in much better shape right now.
2) Mitt never proclaimed Massachusetts a sanctuary state. Rudy proclaimed NYC to be a sanctuary city.
3) Mitt left Massachusetts with a $1 billion surplus. Rudy left NYC with multi-billion dollar deficits.
4) Mitt never fought to raise any taxes. Rudy fought hard to increase taxes such as the commuter tax.
5) Mitt has offered far more specific proposals on all 3 fronts than Rudy has.
The main reason Mitt is more conservative are the value issues, in which Rudy is a liberal.
October 30th, 2007 at 1:17 pm
Dave -
Whom do you think the guys in the caves in Pakistan are more afraid of?
October 30th, 2007 at 4:27 pm
Cliff,
The Jihadists in the caves haven’t read Mitt’s foreign policy position papers. If they had, they’d be digging deeper caves.
October 31st, 2007 at 4:24 am
Let me try to get this straight; Keene is talking about history and holding up Willard Romney at the same time!? lol, LOL! LMHO!! You have GOT to be kidding me.
No, no, this is a new way to spin his own head off because no one that’s performed any research at all is going to buy into that ludicrous nonsense…Nevermind, I just remembered, NewsMax has been in the bag for Romney since April.
Whatever Keene, hope you find the bonus you accept pays for your conscience and don’t even think about the NRA, I’ll start that black ball rolling right now…Then again, endorsing a governor who permanently infringed the Second Amendment by signing into law the “Assault Weapons” Ban and the Brady Bill will only get you a swift kick in the pants. That same candidate lied to our faces saying he was a lifelong hunter who “Knocked some birds” at a fenced-in Quail farm….When all three are stated in the same sentence like that, it’s too funny not to laugh.
Everyone already knows the details of his nonhunting past but, they may not know that the correct phrase is “Knocked DOWN some birds” and pen-raised birds are nearly like shooting ducks in a barrel…I use places like that to train my dogs for cryin’ out loud.
Why are these people who are supposed to be Conservatives AND have a clue, don’t have an ounce of either??