Take it for what it’s worth (and if you don’t like Romney probably you will say it’s worth nothing) The Romney campaign released an internal poll for South Carolina to The State Newspaper. State doesn’t offer up numbers for McCain, and Huckabee in the online article (they are in the print version) so I made a phone call to the author of the article and he offered me their numbers which I included here:
Numbers in parenthesis are from an August internal poll
Thompson 24% (32)
Romney 20% (13%)
Giuliani 15% (21%)
McCain 12% (12%)
Huckabee 6% (n/a)MOE 4.9%, Oct 2-4, 400 Republican likely voters.
This is an internal poll that shows the highest South Carolina polling for Romney yet. We will have to see if other polling comes out to confirm these numbers.
I should also add the article has another poll in it. I am holding a crying baby so maybe someone else can post those. They show the Bob Jones endorsement having a negative effect.
October 23rd, 2007 at 8:58 am
This polls is quite a bit differen than the others polls we have been seeing.
don’t most show it is basically a tie between mccain, romney, and giuliani with fred barely ahead.
October 23rd, 2007 at 9:02 am
The Romney surge continues!! He is leading or very competitive in all the early states.
October 23rd, 2007 at 9:03 am
Not suprise about the Bob Jones backlash. There is alot of people in the State still upset over the 2000 Campign and Smear Job agisnt McCain and Bob Jones is tied in with that in many voters mind. And before you ask alot of those voters live in the Costal Part of the state and are likely backing Rudy for now.
October 23rd, 2007 at 9:05 am
This poll shows Romney continuing to move up in SC, which has been his trend in the state for some time. It’s not the highest he’s been in that another poll had him leading in the state (ARG). People are free to toss this one out on the grounds of bias, and the ARG poll out on the grounds of general incompetence, but it should be clear that Romney is gaining and that Thompson and Giuliani are declining. All Romney really needs in the state is to be competitive by January, when momentum will put him over the4 top.
October 23rd, 2007 at 9:12 am
[...] post by Jason Bonham and software by Elliott [...]
October 23rd, 2007 at 9:20 am
http://www.bostonherald.com/news/opinion/editorials/view.bg?articleid=1039807
Meanwhile In NN look for the Rudy campign to pick up as many copies of todays Herald when he picks up the Endoresment of the former Treasure Secetary of Mass.
October 23rd, 2007 at 9:21 am
Even if you grant that this poll is reliable (I have serious doubts. Who was polled? Who was the polling outfit? What was the methodology? Is this a “push poll” that is so often the case when campaigns leak ‘internal polls’?) – even that aside, all it shows is what we’ve already known. There is no clear favorite in SC at the moment, and the results are going to be highly dependent on IA and NH.
October 23rd, 2007 at 9:33 am
Romney began advertising in SC so it is completely foreseeable that his poll numbers would rise. I am also far from convinced that Giuliani can win SC, which is a very conservative state. Even the democrats are socially conservative. FDT is the best fit for the state and Huckabee second.
That second poll regarding Bob Jones is both admirable to the extent that people reject Bob Jones and his history of racism and segregation, but the poll also shows an astoundingly (and perhaps unreasonably) high number of people (45%) who would be less likely to vote for a mormon. That number and Romney’s rise in the other poll seem inconsistent.
October 23rd, 2007 at 9:35 am
Real Deal,
What is funny, is you calling everyone dumb, in the same comment you mess up the date of the poll.
October 23rd, 2007 at 9:47 am
I would agree with this poll…HOWEVER…And you have to admit this…These #s go out the window if Huck wins or does very well in Iowa and NH…Right now people in SC look at Mitt as the only SoCon that is viable…But alot can change in 2 1/2 months….
October 23rd, 2007 at 9:50 am
Rett,
Sure. But a lot of numbers go out the window if anyone does well anywhere. It’s why states want to be early states.
October 23rd, 2007 at 9:57 am
But Mitt looks good in SC with those key endorsements…
October 23rd, 2007 at 10:37 am
When candidates conduct internal polls, they want the most accurate assessment of the state of the race. The thing to remember is that won’t release those polls unless they are pleased with the outcome. This poll shows competitiveness, and that’s the message the campaign wanted to get out.
October 23rd, 2007 at 10:47 am
Dave,
“When candidates conduct internal polls, they want the most accurate assessment of the state of the race.”
Generally, I agree. On the other hand, a campaign might finesse a poll to make news and give the illusion that they are doing better than they are, hoping for a self-fullfilling prophesy. Given how askew this poll is from others, and the fact that it is internal, at least makes me wonder if that might be the case here. I’m not saying Romney COULDN’T be doing this well, but the campaign also has a history of working very and being very wily to create a since of immense support (such as Ames and the values voters online poll). I don’t completely discount the poll, but I suspect.
October 23rd, 2007 at 11:11 am
Bob Jones hurt Romney, a poll proves?
Gee, who was arguing that here, that day, and receiving so much ridicule for it?
October 23rd, 2007 at 11:25 am
MWS,
You’re right to be suspicious of ANY poll. This one isn’t that much out of line with others that have come out in the last month, but it does show that trends that have been developing are continuing apace. Given that the Fred-fizzle effect is still going on, and that Fred is the only guy ahead of Mitt in this poll, it suggests that Mitt has an excellent chance to take the state. SC is a state that Fred has to win, and if he loses it he’s toast. So, if it (or the ARG poll) reflects reality, the results are very significant. At this point we simply have to await further polls to see if they concur.
October 23rd, 2007 at 11:28 am
Metro,
Why don’t we actually see what the poll says before we pronounce vindication?
October 23rd, 2007 at 11:34 am
but the campaign also has a history of working very and being very wily to create a since of immense support (such as Ames and the values voters online poll).
The Romney boosters have been very fastidious at copying nearly all the elements of modern campaigning pioneered by Bill Clinton in ’91/’92. The candidate has “targeted” his message so that what he wants just happens to be a perfect fit with any particular group he speaks to. This kind of naked pandering always leaves me wondering what the guy actually wants to achieve. His campaign has recently been trying to impress the media with its own mechanical whistles and bells, which to me suggests a candidate who is exceptionally flexible when it comes to principles and issues, forever ready to change direction. A candidate who is so dramatically disloyal to his prior positions is insincere. Meanwhile, the Romney camp is apparently doing advanced marketing for its own Hillaryesque inevitability.
The Clinton deja vu is increasingly freaking me out. It used to be that I thought of the Dems as a party that slavishly devoted itself to polls and lacked any real principles on anything. Especially under Clinton, the party traded in empty platitudes to satisfy each perceived constituency under its own big tent. If the Repubs go for that same vapid style of politics, I’ll be in the market for a third-party no-hoper by the general election.
October 23rd, 2007 at 12:03 pm
When peoplesee that it is really a choice between Romney and Rudy- the majority of evangelicals will choose Romney. Example- South Carolina.