Roger Simon’s article on Fred Thompson’s debate expectations is just brutal:
All he has to do is not fall asleep.
All he has to do is not throw up.
All he has to do is not drool.
Has there ever been a major presidential candidate with lower expectations on the eve of his first debate than Fred Thompson?…
As the only new face on the stage, he will be a large target. And it could go like this:
Matthews: So, Sen. Thompson, tell us where you stand on SCHIP.
Thompson: I don’t really know about SCHIP, Chris. I am more of a Chips Ahoy! man. They are some kind of delicious.
Matthews: SCHIP is the State Children’s Health Insurance Program. It is not a cookie.
Thompson: Well, Chris, Chips Ahoy! is not just a cookie. It is the chocolate chunks everybody wants….
I interviewed Thompson last week, and I asked him if he was prepping for the debate.
“I’ll have to do a few things to get ready for that, that’s for sure,” he told me. “I am probably a little rusty on my sound-bite delivery. Unfortunately, that is kind of what it boils down to. But hopefully I will be able to hang with them.”
And that’s all he has to do. Hang with them. Or else he will surely hang alone.
Something tells me Simon won’t be getting many Fred Thompson interviews in the future. Tomorrow could definitely make or break the Thompson campaign.
Update: I was in a bit of a rush to get that out. The reason this is so brutal though is that, as Jennifer Rubin wrote earlier on R4’08, not only is the national media beating up on Fred, but so is the local media. And these assumptions have contributed to what expectations voters should expect. It’s very possible that Thompson could exceed his “diminished” expectations and if he does exceed them, he will be in very good shape heading down the final stretch.
I remember going into the debates in 2004 between Kerry and Bush where the two sides were in a race to raise their opponents expectations and lower their own. This is classic:
Bush strategist Matthew Dowd calls Kerry “the best debater since Cicero.” Kerry adviser Joe Lockhart says the president “has never lost a debate that I know of.” With those kinds of benchmarks, any sub-Cicero performance will seem like a colossal disappointment.
Those were good times!
October 8th, 2007 at 9:55 pm
Actually, I think he is onto something. Thompson, intentionally or not, has successfully lowered expectations. Greatly.
October 8th, 2007 at 9:56 pm
And LJ,
Could you use the counterarguments as well next time? It’s misleading to just take a few quotes from the page. He offered counteranalysis, as well in his post.
October 8th, 2007 at 9:56 pm
Thompson has taken off of the cmapign trail for the last 5 days while Al D’amato is coaching him for the debate.
If anyone can whip Fred into shape it’s Al D’amato.
Still I bet Fred puts in a performance on par with Brownback except for one or two decently delivered one liners. If he gives a good enough one-liner than he’s won because of the low expectations.
Unfortunately I won’t be able to see the debate as I’ll be in management/decision analysis class.
October 8th, 2007 at 9:59 pm
I think that could be a Pyrrhic victory, Tommy.
October 8th, 2007 at 10:01 pm
ESG, Fred is taking a few days off … again?
October 8th, 2007 at 10:03 pm
To be honest… Barring a major gaffe, I do not think tomorrow’s debate will change anything for any candidate.
It on at 3pm or earlier in most of the country on a little watched cable network. Only the obsessed such as us will be paying attention.
October 8th, 2007 at 10:18 pm
SGS,
No. He was campaigning in California today. See? Buying into whatever you hear. He has been getting coached as well.
October 8th, 2007 at 10:19 pm
Tommy,
I updated my post.
Kavon,
I agree with you. But the media will hype it up as Fred’s first real test and thus cover it more (regardless of if he does good or bad) then they normally would. I remember a GOP debate a couple months ago that was really early and generated almost no news coverage.
October 8th, 2007 at 10:27 pm
It’s on 4pm on CNBC (the finacial channel) eastern and there is a replay at 9pm? eastern on MSNBC. I posted earlier that maybe a thread for the latter showing of the debate would be a good idea?
October 8th, 2007 at 10:35 pm
I don’t think he has successfully lowered expectations. For all the ineptness he has shown so far, I don’t see him struggling in the polls right now. People who have been sky high for him were going to stay that way until at least the first debate.
October 8th, 2007 at 10:53 pm
I actually think the “chips a’hoy” line might go over pretty well and might turn into a sort of catch phrase like President Reagan’s “there you go again” line.
October 8th, 2007 at 11:43 pm
He’s lowered expectations among pundits and politicos like us who follow this race closely . . . but remember that the average Thompson supporter still thinks that he’s “Southern Fried Reagan” or “The Great White/Right Hope”, or . . . at the very least Aurther Branch (his character on Law and Order).
I think that the vast majority of those folks who are choosing him when polled will be having pretty darn high expectations. If THEY are impressed then Fred will be a force to be reckoned with. However, I think that most of us would be VERY surprised if he turns in that kind of performance.
October 9th, 2007 at 7:58 am
“Low expectations” is poppycock. Using “low expectations” as an advantage reminds everyone of W who, for all his virtues, is not someone most Republicans would like to see their next candidate likened to for his skills as an orator.
As I wrote earlier, whatever happened to the “bar” being the same for everyone? The bar should be demonstrating the most command of the issues and the most persuasive rhetoric. “Most” being the important word here. We only get one President.
I grow weary of press lunacy (and watch for it, it’s coming) like, “Huckabee/Romney/Rudy/McCain had the best debate, but Fred Thompson did the most to help his campaign by outpacing expectations.” Fantastic. Now let’s all go vote for the biggest sub-mediocrity that managed to pull one good (or even average) night out of his rear. And while we’re at it, let me compete in Augusta next year. With my 42 handicap, I might still have a shot at Tiger.
October 9th, 2007 at 9:30 am
fredo,
Indeed. The lunacy that has occurred among allegedly committed conservatives during the Bush years, and continuing into Fred mania, reminds me quite a bit of an excellent Kurt Vonnegut story called Harrison Bergeron. In the story, you have this toweringly strong, genius guy named Harrison Bergeron. And he lives in a society the strong and brilliant are handicapped by physical and mental chains (a brain chip that impedes thought), in a bid to make everyone equal. Well, the party of hard work and opportunity has now adopted this world-view. Romney’s slick, because heaven forbid we elect anyone who sounds intelligent. While Fred is folksy, because heaven forbid we label someone “slow” or “inept”. If the former has a brilliant night, we can discount it, because his natural talents unfairly allow him to form coherent thoughts, which actually relate to the issues at hand. And if the latter has a mediocre night, then he ought to be praised, because his natural unjustly limit his ability to form coherent thoughts, which actually relate to the issues at hand. The Republican Party has become safe haven for mediocrity.
October 9th, 2007 at 10:10 am
I repeat — I just do not how Fred Thompson is even in this race.
How “folksy” becomes a qualification for POTUS is beyond me.
You may want your kids baseball coach to be folksy, you may want your pastor to be folksy, you may want your neighbor to be folksy, and a folksy guy would be a great guy to have a beer with and watch a football game with, but a folksy guy being qualified because “he’s so real — he’s one of us — he makes you feel so safe and comforted.” is just b.s.
We’re talking about the office of President of the United States, for pete’s sake.
Fred Thompson is the Republican version of the democrat Barack Obama.
Obama is inexperienced but boy, he sure does make people feel good.
What has our country come to?
October 9th, 2007 at 10:11 am
Correction: I repeat — I just do not know how Fred Thompson is even in this race.
(But you knew I meant that, right?
October 9th, 2007 at 11:12 am
“Matthews: So, Sen. Thompson, tell us where you stand on SCHIP.
Thompson: I don’t really know about SCHIP, Chris. I am more of a Chips Ahoy! man. They are some kind of delicious.
Matthews: SCHIP is the State Children’s Health Insurance Program. It is not a cookie.
Thompson: Well, Chris, Chips Ahoy! is not just a cookie. It is the chocolate chunks everybody wants….”
OMG. I LOL’D BIG TIME.