All right, Romney and Huckabee supporters, let’s see if you guys still buy ARG’s polling.
American Research Group GOP Iowa Caucus Poll, conducted September 26-29, 2007
- Mitt Romney 22% (-5)
- Rudy Giuliani 21% (+4)
- Fred Thompson 16% (+3)
- John McCain 11% (+6)
- Mike Huckabee 5% (-10)
Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points.
American Research Group New Hampshire Primary Poll, conducted September 26-29, 2007
- Romney 24% (-3)
- McCain 20% (+8)
- Rudy 20% (-3)
- Thompson 8% (even)
- Huckabee 3% (-6)
Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points.
September 30th, 2007 at 8:22 pm
I agree and I think they should be taken out of the RCP. I have consistently railed on the ARG from day one. I have railed on it when Mitt was in the lead too. I only consider them useful if they consistently represent a trend.
September 30th, 2007 at 8:24 pm
Tommy,
Get ready to eat your shorts baby!!!!! The Romney Train is just getting momentum, its time to jump aboard or get off the tracks for 2008.
September 30th, 2007 at 8:26 pm
Apparently, ARG also had a New Hampshire poll that shows Huckabee dropping 6 points to 3%, but I’m not even going to post it. This polling firm is ridiculous.
September 30th, 2007 at 8:28 pm
The one thing I would say about the NH tommy is that I do think they have the top three right in the polling, but yeah this poll is a joke.
September 30th, 2007 at 8:30 pm
Tommy, I don’t know what you’re trying to prove with all these posts.
Are you trying to tell us that polls are not gospel? I think everyone knows that. We look at it because its the only data we have but they should be used more for amusement that information.
September 30th, 2007 at 8:30 pm
I just realized what could be the reason Huckabee is tanking in these polls.
Fred Dalton Thompson. He is sucking up Huckabee’s support. Wow, I thought he would eat into Mitt more but he is really destroying Huckabee and Brownback’s support.
Don’t you other guys see that trend?
September 30th, 2007 at 8:33 pm
New Hampshire looks more realistic for the top four. I do honestly think Fred’s entrance has hurt Huckabee and Brownback.
September 30th, 2007 at 8:34 pm
Randy,
No. I’m trying to show you guys that ARG has some very suspect polling results. Their polls are constantly outliers. If you read the comments from the South Carolina poll, you’ll notice that some are very quick to say that they are showing a trend. In fact, ARG has historically gone against trends monthly.
September 30th, 2007 at 8:35 pm
nowandlater,
According to these polls, Thompson really didn’t move much.
If ARG is to be taken seriously, Huck’s support goes to McCain, most likely.
September 30th, 2007 at 8:39 pm
Seriously, these ARG! polls have been nothing but crap all year long. Like that one time that they showed Giuliani magically had a 1% lead in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina at the end of July. Then other polls came out afterwards that showed the completely opposite. I don’t know why anyone bothers to pay attention to them.
September 30th, 2007 at 8:39 pm
nowandlater: ‘Wow, I thought he would eat into Mitt more but he is really destroying Huckabee and Brownback’s support.’
Destroying-yang Brownback’s support? How can you destroy something that doesn’t exist?
September 30th, 2007 at 8:39 pm
Its possible, and now that you think about it, Thompson probably should be taking more from Huckabee than Romney. People who were supporting Huckabee were probably those who wanted a Conservative candidate, but were hesitant about Mitt’s mormonism and “flip-flops”.
September 30th, 2007 at 8:40 pm
McCain is alive baby!
September 30th, 2007 at 8:41 pm
Huckabee got a bump in August around the time of the Ames straw poll and now his numbers are returning to the historic levels. There is no reason to think that ARG is worse than any other poll. Rasmussen is the only charlatan in the field.
September 30th, 2007 at 8:42 pm
And I disagree with those people, Tommy. One poll, from any firm, never makes a trend. Seems to me that you are going just a little wacky after seeing one poll that didnt have Fraud Thompson at the top.
September 30th, 2007 at 8:42 pm
all polls differ each day – why do we even pay attention to them?
September 30th, 2007 at 8:44 pm
…one poll in SC that is.
September 30th, 2007 at 8:46 pm
Argamenon -
I have to disagree on this one. ARG has consistantly been inconsistant. Even if they get the leader right (as they may have done in Michigan), the numbers are usually way off. Often, there is no consistancy between even there own polls – just look at the SC poll.
Rasmussen, on the other hand, is very consistant with itself, and, while it does usually show Thompson and Romney higher than other polls – that is explainable. Rasmussen polls likely Republican Primary voters – which are usually more conservative.
September 30th, 2007 at 8:47 pm
“all polls differ each day – why do we even pay attention to them?”
because, for the next 100 days, there are the only way we have to judge the state of the race.
September 30th, 2007 at 8:47 pm
also look at the Florida results in my post below. Every one of those polls taken ended on 9/19. All the results are comparable except for ARG. Thompson has 23% in all three polls, but at 16 in ARG. McCain in 3 polls is within 3% of each result, but is at 18% in ARG.
Look at NH in June, McCain is between 15-20% in three polls, but at 30% in ARG, taken at the same time. Look at Romney in the same period, 27-28 in 3 polls, while 23 in ARG. Thompson between 9-12 in three polls, while a 3% in ARG.
There is something off here by looking at just those few results by themselves.
September 30th, 2007 at 8:49 pm
Of course, Randy is apparently going to take any shot he can since he refers to “Fraud Thompson.” Look, I have questioned ARG’s results when they’ve shown Thompson with a big lead in Nevada as well. It doesn’t end on which candidate I support.
September 30th, 2007 at 9:02 pm
Johnny: ‘all polls differ each day – why do we even pay attention to them?’
Because other people don’t want to be as horribly uninformed as you are. By the way, have you come around to explaining whether Pi is 3.1 or 3.14xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx?
September 30th, 2007 at 9:07 pm
ARG is generally not very accurate.
September 30th, 2007 at 9:21 pm
Who cares if polls say that Mitt is winning in almost all of the early primary states, it’s all about the national polls right? Anybody with me on this one? Anybody? Hello?
September 30th, 2007 at 9:24 pm
I pay attention to Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics polls. I am hardly uninformed.
September 30th, 2007 at 9:30 pm
I’ve said time and again that ARG in Iowa is usually way off because they keep including Independents who are “likely to caucus” . . . except for one little detail—THEY CAN’T!
In this one Indy’s represented nearly one-quarter of all participants! This mostly helped McCain’s numbers.
The NH numbers seem in line with others recently . . . excluding McCain’s big bump . . . but that could be an early representation of his (sole) focus on the Granite State.
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/nhrep8-710.html
Interesting that Mitt is out-polling McCain and Giuliani pretty handily among independent’s there. We’ll see if that holds up.
Historically, ARG has over-polled McCain and underpolled most others. They have consistantly shown lesser numbers/leads for Mitt than other firms, so this group of polls (IA, NH, and SC) all having Mitt in the lead is a definite first and has me tentatively pleased.
Looks like all three states had Huckabee suffering a huge (and Mitt in IA & NH suffering a milder) post-post-Ames REBOUND after the post-Ames Bounce.
September 30th, 2007 at 9:36 pm
Tommy,
When did ARG ever show Thompson (#21 above) “with a big lead in Nevada” ???
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/nvrep8-701.html
September 30th, 2007 at 9:37 pm
ACT Blog, ARG has a MOE of 4 points and they only poll once a month. That’s why they have these huge swings. But their numbers are consistent with the other polls. Look at their previous SC poll side by side with the LA Times poll taken around the same time:
Giuliani Thompson Romney McCain Huckabee
LA Times/Bloomberg 23 26 9 15 6
American Res. Group 26 21 9 12 9
The numbers speak for themselves. There is nothing crazy about ARG.
September 30th, 2007 at 9:42 pm
So Romney could be on top in IA, NH, MI, NV, WY, SC?
Am I missing something?
Go Mitt.
September 30th, 2007 at 9:45 pm
John: ‘I pay attention to Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics polls. I am hardly uninformed.’
Okay, so you’re merely acting as if you are. I say, you’re a really good actor.
September 30th, 2007 at 9:48 pm
Jeff, people are Indies can show up at the cacus sight an register to either party and take part of the Cacus.
September 30th, 2007 at 9:54 pm
also Rudy runs up the score at the big republican womens meeting straw poll.
September 30th, 2007 at 10:00 pm
Paul8148,
Yeah they can show up and officially register with a party . . . but they almost NEVER do. Most love staying independent and getting all the fawning attention of both candidates during the general election.
September 30th, 2007 at 10:04 pm
Well they could, and fact is Rudy campign can (and supposelly are) really go after them and get them to the polls.
September 30th, 2007 at 10:05 pm
Jeff,
Maybe it was Colorado I was thinking of. I’ve read through so many of these polls tonight my head isn’t straight.
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/corep8-703.html
September 30th, 2007 at 10:11 pm
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/primaries/IA/poll.html
15% in Iowa was indies, but could be highly this time with Rudy and McCain who can reachs thoses voters better. Also 42% had a vet in the household which can help McCain if he goes all out?
September 30th, 2007 at 10:12 pm
opps, mean 52%.
September 30th, 2007 at 10:37 pm
Tommy, I am appealing to you as a fellow conservative who believes in conservative values.
Tommy – do you really think, in your heart of hearts, that Fred Thompson has what it takes
to be the President of the United States of America?
I can see that you are dedicated to his campaign, but I can also see that you are an intelligent,
thoughtful human being.
Fred Thompson espouses some good conservative ideals, but the man is just. not. ready. for. prime. time.
My heart goes out to you. I see how ardently you support this man, Fred Thompson, but he just doesn’t
have what it takes to go through a primary, go through a WWIII campaign with Hillary Clinton (assuming
she is the Democratic candidate) and then, once in office, perform the duties of the President of the
United States of America.
POTUS is a 24/7 job. I am very afraid that Fred Thompson, if he were to be elected POTUS, would become,
very soon into his new job, tired with the job and tell his staff, “I’m just not having fun doing this.
This is boring.”
C’mon, Tommy. Shake off your delusions about FDT. He’s just not a serious candidate. He’s doing this
for some reason – maybe he wants to please his pretty, young wife, maybe he’s overcome with all the support
he’s gotten, but he doesn’t want it — you can tell! It’s not in his gut to want it.
You have to want this job — with every cell of your body. You have to believe that you can make a
difference and that NOBODY else but you can do it, or you have to be drunk with the idea of power (Hillary).
Either way, I don’t don’t see Fred Thompson qualifiying for either of these categories.
He needs to go home to Virginia, enjoy his beautiful family and the fruits of his labor.
I like you, Tommy. You’re a nice guy. But I think your loyalty is misplaced.
Just my humble opinion.
September 30th, 2007 at 10:40 pm
A lot can happen when you go away for the weekend. Romney’s Iowa lead has evaporated, though he now leads in South Carolina. Let me guess, I missed a rather miraculous Mormon speech, and Romney now hates corn.
September 30th, 2007 at 10:42 pm
The one poll to be taken seriously is the money poll for the third quarter. All of the serious candidates were working their hardest to win that. It is the most competitive thing I have seen in the race yet. Whoever wins it is the man to beat.
September 30th, 2007 at 10:48 pm
Hey Tommy, Rasmussen has a new poll out that shows that Fred Thompson is still leading in SC. I thought you might be interested in that.
September 30th, 2007 at 11:05 pm
I just looked at the poll. Fred has 24%, Rudy has 20% and Mitt is at 15%. Mitt might be trending up a bit in SC, but he isn’t in the lead. I trust Rasmussen far more than ARG.
This race is becoming increasingly unpredictable in all regions. Rudy and McCain are gaining in the early states. Michigan is wide open. Romney is trending upward a bit in the South and perhaps the West, with Rudy and Fred leading neck and neck.
This is it folks. It’s one of these four men.
September 30th, 2007 at 11:07 pm
Really? Missed that one.
September 30th, 2007 at 11:30 pm
Awakened,
You just made a dumb mistake! Apparently this site allows more than one person with the same name to post. I am ( The John you
argued with concerning religion, and who you consider to have the intelligence of a fly) not the John who posted previously on
this thread about polls! I imagine the John who posted on this thread wonders what in the world Pi has to with what you stated.
Dude you apparently have some mental issues that all you can get over our conversation.
Btw, I am highly tempted to respond to your question, but it would give the false feeling that your question is actually worth
being answered, when it is truly nonsense. Okay I’ll answer it, the Bible doesn’t speak concerning math.
John,
Welcome to Race42008. You may find that with the immaturity of certain posters, who can’t just accept the end of an
arguement, and who do don’t respect the other posters around here that it is not worth it to spend a lot of time around here. I am
starting to think that anyway, so you might get to be the only John.
September 30th, 2007 at 11:50 pm
You can leave McCain out of it. There are only three men that have a chance.
October 1st, 2007 at 12:17 am
Awakened, I (the John you argued with about religion and said has the intelligence of a fly) am not the same John as the John who
posted on this site. Aperrently this site allows two different people to post with the same name. I bet that John was wondering
whatever, you were talking about concerning Pi.
October 1st, 2007 at 12:23 am
Apparently you have some mental issue that you can’t accept when a conversation is over.
Well since I can’t resist giving you the false
feeling that your question is complete nonsense( which it is) The Bible does not speak about Mathmatics. Your obssession with
discussing relgion on this site even when has nothing directly to do with what is being discussed greatly lowers the value of
discussion on this site.
October 1st, 2007 at 3:22 am
Bethopaz, you hit Tommy Oliver right on and Fred Thompson dead on. Tommy is a super intelligent guy, but overly biased about Thompson’s abilities and charm. Is it because they are both from Tennessee? They’re practically fourth cousins or something…I would tend to feel familiar and biased towards someone from Oregon. Thompson is not impassioned like Giuliani, Romney or McCain.
If Thompson gets the nomination, I would definitely vote for him, but Thompson does not have “IT”. And that continually shows…it bothers me. He is a good ol’ boy senator and does have his moments, but POTUS, sorry, no.
October 1st, 2007 at 4:13 am
Looking at the big picture two storylines are emerging that Bill Clinton and Pat Buchanan echoed on Sunday. One is that Romney’s leads in early states and his money give him the inside track to the nomination. The second is that FDT or Rudy, as the national frontrunner, can challenge Romney if they take him down early, perhaps in NH or SC.
It sounds like someone has to go negative fairly soon. But here’s the rub. If Rudy, Romney, and/or FDT go negative, it opens the door for McCain. So here is my idea. A backroom deal should be struck between Rudy and FDT where FDT goes negative on Romney in Iowa, NH, and SC securing at least two of the three for Rudy. In exchange, Rudy agrees to select FDT as VP, in which position FDT can return to his role as Arthur Branch being seen and heard from very little.
October 1st, 2007 at 7:16 am
Shawnie,
We’re ideological cousins, not blood relatives.
October 1st, 2007 at 7:23 am
Oh yeah,
I quit answering the “why” questions a while ago. I know some of you are newer to race42008 (at least since April or May), but I got really tired of answering it over and over again. Occasionally I’ll touch on it, but there are many reasons, that both have to do with personal and political.
For example, we are both federalists in principle, and believe that those principles should be what defines alll policy, not the other way around, and FDT is the only candidate who would apply principle before policy (although Rudy has taken this approach on occasion)
There are examples of personal and political similarities.
October 1st, 2007 at 8:37 am
This poll is way out of whack! Look at these number from a September 29th Newsweek poll:
# Mitt Romney 24%
# Fred Thompson 16%
# Rudy Giuliani 13%
# Mike Huckabee 12%
# John McCain 9%
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21036143/site/newsweek/%20=%20POLL%20NUMBERS/print/1/displaymode/1098/
October 1st, 2007 at 10:30 am
Tommy, Mitt Romney also is strong on federalism – he talks about it often.
But it seems like “federalism” is just an excuse for FDT not to bother to develop ideas
on policies, or know enough about subjects to answer questions.
October 1st, 2007 at 10:30 am
Tommy, Mitt Romney also is strong on federalism – he talks about it often.
But it seems like “federalism” is just an excuse for FDT not to bother to develop ideas
on policies, or know enough about subjects to answer questions.
October 1st, 2007 at 11:16 am
What is up with ARG. Who runs the show there?
this is probably as good as the 9 percent marigin of error newseek poll put out last week.
October 1st, 2007 at 11:17 am
Is Thompson really that strong on federalism? Doesn’t he support the Department of Education, one of the most blatant fronts on federalism.
October 1st, 2007 at 12:16 pm
John Galt, I don’t think FDT is as strong on federalism as he sounds – look at his background.
He just likes to use the word “federalism” instead of getting specific on the issues – kind of
like how Hillary cackles when she wants to deflect a question.
Both, in my opinion, are a substitute for someone taking their hand doing the “shove it away”
motion.
October 1st, 2007 at 1:41 pm
#50 Tommy,
“Shawnie,
We’re ideological cousins, not blood relatives.”
LOL