- Mitt Romney 24%
- Fred Thompson 16%
- Rudy Giuliani 13%
- Mike Huckabee 12%
- John McCain 9%
- Ron Paul 5%
- Undecided 15%
Second Choice
- Rudy Giuliani 21%
- Mitt Romney 21%
- Fred Thompson 10%
- John McCain 4%
- Mike Huckabee 2%
- Ron Paul 2%
- Undecided 15%
Survey of likely Republican caucus-goers was conducted September 26-27. The margin of error is +/- 9 percentage points.
September 29th, 2007 at 12:53 pm
That’s pretty funny that even in a Newsweek poll that Romney is significantly ahead in Iowa! I’m surprised with Huckabee, though.
September 29th, 2007 at 12:57 pm
Also Obama is leading, abit slightly on the Dem side.
September 29th, 2007 at 1:05 pm
by the way Newt just said he is not running
September 29th, 2007 at 1:11 pm
Look, I fully believe Romney in winning in Iowa (and New Hampshire – apparently that CNN poll had an oversample of independents), but what is the point of a poll with an MoE or +/- 9%?
September 29th, 2007 at 1:12 pm
GO RON PAUL! GO RON PAUL! GOD BLESS RON PAUL!
RON PAUL FOR PRESIDENT 2008!
Best Ron Paul video – (Reply: WRONG!…Best Presidential Candidacy Video EVER!!!)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFfdB5OzlyQ
September 29th, 2007 at 1:24 pm
For someone like Romney who’s spent millions in Iowa, had a monopoly of TV ads for months, won the straw poll, and he can only pull 24%. That’s pretty bad.
I wouldn’t be shocked if loses IA or wins so narrowly that’s it perceived as a loss
September 29th, 2007 at 1:31 pm
“For someone like Romney who’s spent millions in Iowa, had a monopoly of TV ads for months, won the straw poll, and he can only pull 24%. That’s pretty bad.”
Well, I think we have to question the reliability of this poll, but I could easily say the same thing about Giuliani’s national numbers. For a candidate to have gotten hundreds of hours of free advertising because of 9/11, as well as having complete name recognition, combined with his “electability”, only getting 24% is also pretty sad.
September 29th, 2007 at 1:33 pm
A margin of error of nine percent? What a pointless poll. Paul supporters: rejoice, your candidate may really be at 14%! Hahaha.
September 29th, 2007 at 1:36 pm
Giuliani needs to get his act together in Iowa. If he ends in third or fourth place there, he’s done.
September 29th, 2007 at 1:48 pm
wow, marigin of error of 9 percentage points. word, what a ridiculously pointless poll. wow, why do a poll like that. it has no value.
I actually like to see the race tighten more as a romney supporter. I think it increases his chances. if he is seen as inevitable in ia or nh, that is not good for him. he needs to remain the underdog. his early spending has given him a good base, he has defined himself there. now he must fight to keep it until the end. if he wins ia, it will be a great feat for him and possibly propel him to a win in nh. if he managed that, i think it would be over. I don’t see it happening though, considering hasn’t happened in modern history.
September 29th, 2007 at 1:58 pm
MOE +- 9 is terrible! How could Newsweek do that?
September 29th, 2007 at 2:07 pm
“For someone like Romney who’s spent millions in Iowa, had a monopoly of TV ads for months, won the straw poll, and he can only pull 24%. That’s pretty bad.”
That’s a good line to use for those who love Rudy but hate the fact that he can’t nail down an early state. Believe it or not, you can’t buy votes, you can only convince people by your message – that takes money, but people still have to decide.
It’s hard to build upon 9/11 and have it as impressive. We will see if Rudy can do that.
September 29th, 2007 at 2:15 pm
Awakened, yeah, if he comes in third place, he’s doomed, like, you know, George H.W. Bush.
September 29th, 2007 at 2:15 pm
jrcutler — “It’s hard to build upon 9/11 and have it as impressive. We will see if Rudy can do that.”
Yep, that’s all Rudy’s ever done in his entire life that’s notable. -rolls eyes-
September 29th, 2007 at 2:21 pm
“Giuliani needs to get his act together in Iowa. If he ends in third or fourth place there, he’s done.“
How did George H.W. Bush 3rd place finish in Iowa effect his presidential run?
Remember, he even won the darn thing in his prior go around there.
September 29th, 2007 at 2:22 pm
Here are the results among registered Republicans. The margin of error for this larger sample is +/- 6 percentage points.
Mitt Romney 25%
Fred Thompson 16%
Rudy Giuliani 15%
John McCain 7%
Mike Huckabee 6%
Tom Tancredo 3%
Sam Brownback 3%
Ron Paul 2%
Duncan Hunter 1%
Undecided 21%
September 29th, 2007 at 2:55 pm
Jim, I disagree with your statement in #5. Giuliani and Thompson have mounds of name recognition, Romney was an unknown. His money was spent to introduce himself to voters, and they like what they saw…. Sorry, your comment is trying to skew that he is buying the election…but voters don’t get money in their pocket, they get familiarity with the candidates and then they choose.
September 29th, 2007 at 4:49 pm
Shawnie,
Agreed, plus Romney’s numbers in Iowa are a lot more solid than the other candidate’s numbers, because they are based more upon political stances and personal encounters than off of celebrity status. No one can topple Romney in Iowa, despite what any poll in the future may say, simply because when January rolls around, people are going to go out to vote for a president-to-be, not a celebrity! People will vote on political stances, not TV programs, and people will be voting for November 4th 2008, not September 11th 2001.
September 29th, 2007 at 4:57 pm
TLG,
“Yep, that’s all Rudy’s ever done in his entire life that’s notable. -rolls eyes-”
This is what I mean
“Yep, 9/11 is the most impressive thing that Rudy has ever done in his entire life.”
Most of America doesn’t know what else he has done that has been as equally impressive. Most Republicans do not vote for someone because they have been the mayor of New York.
Not everyone is like you, who knows a ton about Giuliani. I know a fair amount about him, and he’s not my #1 guy because of it. I respect the guy, but he doesn’t match up right with me.
Besides, you have to admit that 9/11 is a hard act to follow. What other impressive things does he have to impress people with? I know there are some things, but will it be enough to overcome his faults?
September 29th, 2007 at 5:49 pm
ThatLibertarianGuy: ‘Awakened, yeah, if he comes in third place, he’s doomed, like, you know, George H.W. Bush.’
Kavon: ‘How did George H.W. Bush 3rd place finish in Iowa effect his presidential run?’
Obviously, I didn’t say that anyone who finishes third in Iowa will lose the nomination, I was only talking about Giuliani in 2008. And there are some stark differences between Giuliani and Bush.
1. Giuliani isn’t a sitting vice-president and doesn’t have the unanimous support of the establishment
2. His positions aren’t as much in line with the party as Bush’s were.
3. His opponents aren’t Pat Robertson and Bob Dole, unfortunatel.
September 29th, 2007 at 7:09 pm
To have a MOE of +/- 9%, they would have had to have called something like 50 people. I ought to go into the polling business. Based on this poll, I’m guessing it’s easy. And given that this is a Newsweek poll, I’m also guessing that Romney is back over 30%.
September 29th, 2007 at 7:38 pm
Dave: ‘To have a MOE of +/- 9%, they would have had to have called something like 50 people. ‘
More like something close to 120. Considering that they use a likely-voters formula and include only Republicans, I’m guessing that they called about 500 adults.
September 30th, 2007 at 9:08 am
[...] has a poll that has Huckabee moving into 4th, ahead of McCain (via [...]