The Thompson Bounce begins. It seems, from first glance, that Thompson and Giuliani’s support trends to each other upon every perceived bounce…
GOP Nomination Tracking Poll 9/10
- Fred Thompson 26%
- Rudy Giuliani 22%
- Mitt Romney 13%
- John McCain 12%
- Mike Huckabee 6%
Daily tracking results are from survey interviews conducted over four days ending last night. Each update includes approximately 750-800 Likely Democratic Primary Voters and 600-650 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Thompson’s gains since announcing have come primarily among conservatives likely to vote in a Republican Primary. In polling completed since his announcement, Thompson leads Giuliani by 12-points among conservative primary voters. That’s up from a five-point edge before the announcement. Conservatives account for more than 60% of GOP primary voters. Two-thirds of Republican voters view Giuliani as politically moderate or liberal.
September 10th, 2007 at 9:07 am
Oh boy.
How long until people realize he’s a man with few accomplishments who left the Senate right as the War on Terror was just vamping up so he could go act?
Oh, and also — he has no serious policy proposals.
September 10th, 2007 at 9:08 am
TLG,
He left the Senate after his daughter died. Oh yeah, for the last 5 years he’s been Chairman of the National Security Advisory Board for the State Department.
September 10th, 2007 at 9:08 am
Mike Huckabee at six percent, though. That’s interesting, since he’s been stalled at 4 for quite a while now.
Well, the more so-cons to split the RUDY SUX vote, the better.
September 10th, 2007 at 9:10 am
Is he going to quit the presidency if something else tragic happens?
Listen — it’s not that I don’t sympathize with him. But regular people just can’t quit their jobs and say that they’re through when a family member dies. I don’t see why he should get any special consideration, especially as the job was just about to get more important due to the Iraq War.
September 10th, 2007 at 9:12 am
Go Freddy go!
Hopefully Thompson passes Romney in IA, depriving Mitt of a first place showing. Then, even if Mitt wins in NH, Giuliani could take second place. That muddies the waters so there is no de facto front runner, and then Giuliani takes FL and cleans up on 2/5 in the populous states where Fred isn’t likely to come out on top.
September 10th, 2007 at 9:14 am
Here’s what he’s been doing:
“Until July 2007, Thompson was Chair of the International Security Advisory Board, a bipartisan advisory panel that reports to the Secretary of State and focuses on emerging strategic threats. In that capacity, he advised the State Department about all aspects of arms control, disarmament, international security, and related aspects of public diplomacy.” [From Wikipedia.]
That’s good. I never said that he’s never done anything important in his life (that dinstinction is reserved for Senator Obama). I never even said that he doesn’t know what he’s talking about on the issues — he quite obviously does.
September 10th, 2007 at 10:02 am
I am actually glad that Fred has taken the lead. Believe it or not I am not being snide asI say that, I am genuinely pleased. I think Rudy needs someone to gve him a run for his money right now. I suspect that suspect Romney will stay in third until January.
September 10th, 2007 at 10:07 am
Romney Blogger,
Don’t worry. I don’t hold the actions of a few against you. Some Romney supporters, like yourself, can be positive and fair without offending everyone else. I appreciate it greatly.
September 10th, 2007 at 10:10 am
Fred Thompson = Max Headroom
September 10th, 2007 at 10:20 am
Clearly Romney does not intend to win a national poll but rather an early state by state victory giving him momentum to win the larger states. Sounds crazy but that’s how all primaries are won. Plus sitting in third will make him exceed expectations and Rudy fail to meet those expectations when the first states vote.
September 10th, 2007 at 10:23 am
Rasmussen counts different numbers than the rest of the polling world; he must have one wacky definition of what a “likely voter” is.
September 10th, 2007 at 10:27 am
Big S: ‘Rasmussen counts different numbers than the rest of the polling world; he must have one wacky definition of what a “likely voter†is.’
Actually, Rasussen doesn’t poll Republican-leaning Indepenents, unlike most other polling organizations. Since in most states, Independents can’t vote in the primaries, Rasmussen is probably more reliable.
September 10th, 2007 at 10:29 am
It’s just one poll, but I’m encouraged by the fact that someone other than Rudy is at the top. If I recall, this happened once back in June, though I hope this time it’s more than just a statistical anomaly. While I believe Romney is a better choice, Fred is hands down better than Rudy. Romney will improve his standing soon enough.
September 10th, 2007 at 10:39 am
The massive national poll lead that Thompson has over Romney is a major barrier to overcome. I think that Romney can maintain his leads in early states, but this might be the first true test of wether early states matter as significantly as we might think. If early states play a big enough part in momentum to overturn a 2:1 disadvantage in national polls, then Romney wins in a landslide. If not…yuck!
Thompson has bought a huge amount of time for himself to come up with a plan and agenda for the white house. So far it appears to be working for him (to stall on proving himself a leader), but I don’t know if people are going to come out in massive numbers for him if he doesn’t have a half-decent plan for CHANGE in the white house come election time. Answering a phone for a poll is one thing, voting is another. He needs to excite his 26 percent base somehow, or else there will be a straw man effect come January and February. I’m still seeing an indecisive victory for Republicans-and this frustrates me. Overall, I think this Thompson hype is the worst for Rudy right now, since his claim to fame was national poll dominance, and at least momentarily, it has been taken away from him by Thompson. Isn’t this crazy: Thompson leading in national polls, Rudy leading in delegate votes, and Romney leading in early state delegate votes.
Yuck, what a mess.
September 10th, 2007 at 10:48 am
jrcutler, leading in one poll does not mean leading nationally. Fred has led in Rasmussen before.
September 10th, 2007 at 11:15 am
It seems to me that national polls are about name recognition nationally.
I think the person that has the best and most organized plan and executes it
successful, and is the most qualified candidate will be the winner in the end.
I like Rudy. I think he did a great job with NY and with 9/11, but I
think when the time comes to vote, he’s just too liberal for most
Republicans.
September 10th, 2007 at 11:18 am
KT – I didn’t know who Max Headroom was until I checked You Tube.
Problem is, Fred doesn’t even come close to having that much
energy.
September 10th, 2007 at 12:40 pm
At some point most people will come to the conclusion that Rasmussen’s numbers are completely out of whack.
No other poll has Thompson in the upper 20′s. His range is 14-22 if you remove Rasmussen from this long list of polls:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-192.html#polls
He is doing very poorly in state polls. So I don’t know where his supporters live. Maybe they are all in cyberspace.
September 10th, 2007 at 1:28 pm
Looks like Fred is hurting Rudy, Romney equally.
September 10th, 2007 at 2:23 pm
these numbers are way off who are they calling? how come ron paul keeps beating them in the republican debates but he is not on any of these polls?
September 10th, 2007 at 3:12 pm
Ron Paul is overrepresented. His base is big city libertarians (drug addicts) who happen to be very tech savvy. And he is represented by isolationists who probably don’t have phones, lol.
September 10th, 2007 at 3:25 pm
So much for Rudy’s “annointing.”
September 10th, 2007 at 4:00 pm
Romney needs to do more debate prep so he can get a bust-out performance and really see momentum in national polls. I’m not sure its a good idea to wait until January for Romney to make his more – that is awfully late in the game.
But at least we are not stuck with a moderate leading our race right now.
January 18th, 2010 at 12:01 pm
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