GOP Nomination- USA Today/Gallup (Last Month)
The samples of 425 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents and 500 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents have margins of error of +/- 5 percentage points.
Here are some of the observations from the editorial:
Thompson is significantly less well known than Giuliani or McCain – 28% of Republicans say they’ve never heard of Thompson, compared with 8% for Giuliani and 9% for McCain.
Among those Republicans who know all four leading contenders, Giuliani and Thompson are essentially tied. In a head-to-head race among all GOP voters, Giuliani bests Thompson by 13 points, 53%-40%.
Republican voters are somewhat more satisfied than they were before: 70% say they’re pleased with the choice; 26% would like a new candidate. In April, a third wanted additional choices.
More: This is the first time Fred Thompson has registered significantly above McCain and Romney as the second choice, and this is where Giuliani seperates himself.
Combined First And Second Choice
September 9th, 2007 at 7:44 pm
Go Rudy!!!
September 9th, 2007 at 7:48 pm
Leads in a multiway field, leads one-on-one (as he has with McCain and Romney in various polls).
September 9th, 2007 at 7:50 pm
Some Mittmentum, there.
Isn’t it the September Gallup poll that has predicted every GOP correctly since it began over half a century ago?
September 9th, 2007 at 7:50 pm
Rudy is +2 from the last Gallup.
September 9th, 2007 at 7:52 pm
Are you sure he was at 32 last time? PS, Gallup is decent, but remember that it only measures registered voters. Among those who are familiar with all 4 candidates, Rudy’s tied with Thompson, which matches the Rasmussen poll of likely voters.
September 9th, 2007 at 7:53 pm
All of the changes from last month are within the margin of error of the poll.
September 9th, 2007 at 7:54 pm
You were right, metro. I found the link to the crosstabs and updated the post at the top.
September 9th, 2007 at 7:55 pm
Big S,
And by looking at the trends over the last 5 or so polls, I’d say last months poll was an outlier.
September 9th, 2007 at 7:59 pm
Tommy, point well taken, but those who haven’t heard about Fred are hearing now about how what a disappointment he is.
I knew Fred was done when his latest video appearances were awful. THAT was were he was supposed to be strong, like the Michael Moore video, and he had to live up in other departments. But he isn’t even capable of coming across well on video, now.
September 9th, 2007 at 8:02 pm
Tommy,
Looking at the results over the past few months, the only movement outside the margin of error I can really see is the McCain-Thompson switcheroo that happened in June. Aside from that, if you take, say, four or five consecultive polls and average the results, very few if any of the individual results are more than the MOE away from the average. Overall, I see remarkable stability for a field that is considered by many to be very fluid.
September 9th, 2007 at 8:02 pm
Metro,
You forget. Most people don’t read blogs. The AP and the major newspapers aren’t calling him a disappointment. Fox and MSNBC have been very high on his video. Neither are the respected conservative pundits. Sure, Jennifer Rubin adn Ryan Sager are going to take little shots at him, but why wouldn’t they? They’re openly in favor of Rudy.
Places like the NRO online are about at the same level as this place, when it comes to favoritism.
September 9th, 2007 at 8:03 pm
Big S,
The movement for Romney went from 8-14-10. That’s a six pt differential jump back to within the MoE.
September 9th, 2007 at 8:04 pm
Fox has been very critical of Fred. Newsweek cover. etc. It’s not blogs.
September 9th, 2007 at 8:12 pm
Fox was critical of him for skipping the debates. The roundtable and O’Reilly have been positive of his video and his announcement.
The Newsweek article wasn’t negative. It was actually quite good.
September 9th, 2007 at 8:14 pm
And… Fox had been critical of him for months, so I doubt what they say changes the dynamics anyway
September 9th, 2007 at 8:14 pm
Tommy,
That movement “back to within the MoE” only makes sense if you peg the real value at 8. It seems like his support may have increased very slightly over the past month or so, with an average trend line, taking into acount the statistical error, having a very slight upward slope. Like I said, *very few* if any of the individual poll results are outside the MoE.
Another (rough) way to look at it is to “smooth” the results over three or five poll intervals by taking the average of each poll with the one or two directly preceding it and one or two directly following it. Doing this shows extremely remarkable stability month to month, except for the Thompson-McCain thing.
September 9th, 2007 at 8:16 pm
Big S,
What I was saying, and I’m not a statician, is that he was stuck at around 8% for the last five months. He jjumps 6%, and then goes back down to 10%. The numbers are all close enough to be written off, but it is more likely he is around 10% than 14%.
September 9th, 2007 at 8:18 pm
five polls, not months, my mistake.
September 9th, 2007 at 8:19 pm
No announcement bump for Fred I guess.. McCain making a comeback will sure add some competition for that elderly vote. Maybe the ARG numbers will be better.
September 9th, 2007 at 8:20 pm
Anyone but Mitt…. I’m glad the nation is finally seeing right through this guy.
What I want:
1st. Rudy
2nd. Fred
3rd. Huckabee
4th. McCain
September 9th, 2007 at 8:22 pm
Tommy,
You’re right, it is more likely that he is at 10% than 14%.
September 9th, 2007 at 8:23 pm
Is anyone else hearing that Duncan Hunter might drop out in the coming weeks? I don’t know how this will effect the race or who his support will go to if true.
September 9th, 2007 at 8:24 pm
Duncan Hunter has said he will stay in until January regardless, but I wouldn’t be suprised.
September 9th, 2007 at 8:24 pm
Agamemnon,
Did you expect a bump for Fred? Anyone who’s paying attention has known for a while that he’s running. His “anouncement bump” happened in June.
September 9th, 2007 at 8:29 pm
I hope Brownback and Hunter drop out…. I don’t see anyone else dropping out before the caucus.
Brownbacks supports hate Romney… so they will probably go to Huckabee or F. Thompson.
Hunters will go to McCain/Rudy/Tancredo I’d assume.
September 9th, 2007 at 8:35 pm
The Newsweek article was mixed. Some positive but also critical of his role investigting the Chinese fundraising scandals and then this:
“Thompson’s popularity among his Republican colleagues took another hit in 1999, when he broke with the party and voted against convicting Clinton on perjury charges during his impeachment trial (he voted for conviction on obstruction of justice). But by then Thompson had one foot out the door. He had long complained that he found Senate life suffocating. ‘I don’t like spending 14- and 16-hour days voting on ‘sense of the Senate’ resolutions on irrelevant matters,’ Thompson said in 1998. It was, he said, ‘very frustrating.’ He may have wished the Senate spent its time on more-important issues, but Thompson himself didn’t have the patience, or the desire, to do the kind of ego stroking and horse trading it takes to get bills to the president’s desk. Of the 90 bills he introduced in his eight years as a senator, only four became law.”
As for the polls, the debate hurt Romney and helped McCain and none of it really matters to Rudy since the other three keep dividing up the pie while he gets 30%+ of the vote. Unless more than one of his opponents crash and burn it’s hard to see how Rudy loses it.
September 9th, 2007 at 8:49 pm
wisconsin cheese, it’s not hard at all. Just wait for the Mittmentum coming out of 4 consecutive wins in January.
September 9th, 2007 at 9:02 pm
This poll is more bad news for Mitt.
http://www.political-buzz.com/
September 9th, 2007 at 9:03 pm
#27: That would mean a substantial improvement in South Carolina where he trails badly now. It is possible but there are three problems there– he’s a little too upscale for upstate, he’s a bit too hard edged for burgeoning coastal population areas and unlike NH and Iowa he lacks a first class ground game.This is a likely win for Thompson or Giuliani who polls very well and leads in the largest population centers like Myrtle beach.
September 9th, 2007 at 9:03 pm
#25 — You mean Rudy, McCain, and Tancredo have the possibility of picking ten votes up?!
September 9th, 2007 at 9:06 pm
This doesn’t seem to match polling in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, and Nevada which have Mitt up by 10 points or more. You can bet Rudy’s heart will fail him after loosing the first 4, wondering what happens next.
September 9th, 2007 at 9:17 pm
There are a number of possibilties with the state polls and early primaries: 1) they are accurate in which case Romney leads in NH and Iowa and trails in SC; 2) they are rather useless because no one really knows how to poll in many of these states(it’s very hard to tell who are caucus voters in Iowa and which independents vote in which NH primary); 3)Romney’s numbers are high but will come down since none of his opponents have yet aired TV ads in early states or 4) they are rather accurate but there is virtually no affect from one to another. In 2000 for example McCain won NH and lost SC. Or some combination of all of these.
September 9th, 2007 at 9:22 pm
wisconsin, I was talking about Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, and Nevada. They are all before SC. Michigan is on the 15th, Nevada 19th, SC I think is on the 19th also.
You can disregard Gallup. They interview Republicans and Independents without asking if they are likely voters. You have ARG, Hotline and Quinnipiac with Romney tied in second with Thompson. But I doubt National polls matter all that much at this point. I think Huckabee will rise later on. And the Senators will fall.
September 9th, 2007 at 9:30 pm
See #32. Nevada polling is all over the map but Thompson likely does well there. Michigan is a wild card with McCain rising from the dead and independents likely to flood in since the Dems are banned from campaigning there. Not saying Romney won’t do well but there are a lot of question marks. (Also keep in mind all these except Florida are NOT winner take all.) The most interesting thing about the national polls are Romney’s high unfavorables which if not addressed are a problem. I personally think he is very smart and has a great background but isn’t warm and fuzzy which accounts in part for high unfavorables and problems in places like SC.
September 9th, 2007 at 9:37 pm
Are USA/Gallup ever even close to normal. They always seem so out-of-whack. I trust Rassmusen much more myself, but I can understand why Rudy fans would trust Gallup…
September 9th, 2007 at 9:37 pm
By the way wisconsin, Romney is ahead in Michigan and Nevada without airing a single ad in those states. In New Hampshire he polls more than all the others combined.
In Iowa you have Giuliani and Thompson who are against the marriage amendment and this is a big issue there now. And McCain is polling in the single digits because of the amnesty fiasco. That leaves Huckabee as the competition Romney will face in Iowa. And Huck of course has no money.
September 9th, 2007 at 9:39 pm
Here are some interesting facts about the 2000 GOP primaries.
After Bush had deafeated McCain 3-1 in the first 4 contests, McCain was still able to win the next 2, albeit one was his homestate (the other was MI).
After Bush had defeated McCain 6-3, as of Super Tuesday, McCain still one 4 of the 11 contests that day.
This shows that many states are unwilling to follow the momentum. In McCain’s case, it wasn’t enough, but it’s still impressive for someone who was NOT a national frontrunner, NOT a national hero, NOT everything Rudy has going for him.
Including far more entrenched support in a lot more (and a lot bigger) states than McCain.
September 9th, 2007 at 9:41 pm
#35: Actually I would never use one poll. The national RCP averages are very reliable but in this instance Gallup is much closer to that average than Rasmussen which fluxuately widely.
#36: As noted the Nevada polls are all over the map. Romney is ahead in some but not all Michigan polls.
September 9th, 2007 at 9:42 pm
Argamemnon, Romney does not poll more than all the others combined in NH. By a long shot. I suggest you refer to the RCP poll averages before posting.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-192.html
(State polls at links on the left.)
September 9th, 2007 at 9:48 pm
Re #37 I wasn’t counting AK as an early win for Bush, so he had an even larger lead than I indicated.
September 9th, 2007 at 9:53 pm
All changes are within the margin of error. I want to see more polls.
September 9th, 2007 at 10:27 pm
Head-to-head among Republicans and Republican leaners…
Rudy Giuliani 68%
Mitt Romney 23%
With Newt Gingrich in the race…
Rudy Giuliani 32%
Fred Thompson 20%
John McCain 14%
Mitt Romney 9%
Newt Gingrich 7%
Mike Huckabee 4%
September 9th, 2007 at 10:50 pm
Any romney fans out there nervous that joe klein thought romney was the best in iraq in the NH debate:
“Actually, Romney–confused, constricted, embattled Romney–came closest to being reasonable about Iraq. Beneath the scrambled verbiage and unfamiliar terms–what is a “support” role?–he seemed to be saying that as soon as we finish off AQI, we should start getting out, leaving Iraq to the Iraqis while maintaining a small regional presence. But he didn’t exactly say that…and he allowed McCain to bully him on the surge, retreating from his position that the surge “seems to be working.” The most accurate statement would have been “aspects of the surge seem to be working, but the larger situation in Iraq–the slide toward all-out civil war and civic chaos–continues unchecked.”
September 9th, 2007 at 11:21 pm
#37 McCain wasn’t an extreme liberal on abortion, immigraion, and gay marriage in 2000 so he hung in a bit longer.
September 9th, 2007 at 11:24 pm
nate, Rudy has been against gay marriage always, and you know it.
An “extreme liberal” on immigration is a stretch, when he promises to end illegal immmigration–believably.
Abortion is a low priority for GOP voters. Most especially in the large states he is going to dominate, and which will give him the delegate count to take the nomination.
September 9th, 2007 at 11:38 pm
nate- read a book.
September 10th, 2007 at 12:14 am
Why were Democrats polled here at all?
September 10th, 2007 at 12:20 am
the 500 Democrats were asked what Democratic Candidate they supported.
September 10th, 2007 at 12:29 am
guys, check this out…
people are 2 and a half more likely to vote against a Hispanic than an African American!
http://pollingreport.com/images/PEWtraits.GIF
can someone who opposed the immigration bill please explain the myth that racism had nothing to do with opposing the bill?
September 10th, 2007 at 12:29 am
The social conservative candidates in the race have 52% of GOP voter’s support. The social moderate in the race has 34% of GOP voter’s support.
It’s good to see that social conservatives are still more numerous in this party than the moderates.
September 10th, 2007 at 12:39 am
econ grad stud, how do you know those are the only issues explaining the difference?
Have you noticed in other polls that so cons choose Rudy as their top choice when isolated?
Have you noticed Rudy handily beats Fred, McCain, or Romney when it’s a two-man race?
September 10th, 2007 at 12:55 am
We know that social conservatives give a majority of support to candidates besides Rudy even in head to head polls. Certainly some of the frightened ones do support Rudy. Only a minority of social conservatives fear Hillary more than they value their principles.
September 10th, 2007 at 12:57 am
Interesting also to see McCain counted as a “social conservative candidate.” He does, actually, qualify as a social conservative on the issue above all other issues for EGS, but McCain has never been the choice of movement social conservatives – they’ve tended to treat him as an enemy, and it’s unlikely that his numbers come from voters who put social conservatism first or even second.
September 10th, 2007 at 1:01 am
McCain is as social conservative as Bill Frist or George Allen on the issues. I doubt any of you would say they aren’t socially conservative.
September 10th, 2007 at 1:08 am
McCain as socially conservative as Bill Frist or George Allen? No, I wouldn’t go that far.
More conservative than Romney, yes. More conservative than Giuliani, yes. More conservative than Thompson, yes. More conservative than Huckabee, debatable.
September 10th, 2007 at 1:19 am
american conservative union lifetime rating:
Allen 92.63
McCain 82.25
Frist 87.83
CHAFEE 34.71
Joe Lieberman 16.84
But as far as voting for pork, McCain beats all these guys hands down.
September 10th, 2007 at 1:21 am
“The social conservative candidates in the race have 52% of GOP voter’s support. The social moderate in the race has 34% of GOP voter’s support.
It’s good to see that social conservatives are still more numerous in this party than the moderates.”
Oh, this is the damn stupidest thing I’ve ever read.
They weren’t asked WHY they supported the candidate they did.
Sheesh.
September 10th, 2007 at 1:22 am
I only said social conservative. By any reasonable standard McCain is a social conservative based on his voting record.
September 10th, 2007 at 1:32 am
“By any reasonable standard McCain is a social conservative based on his voting record.”
Agreed. If only more people knew.
September 10th, 2007 at 6:01 am
samp0: and Thompson is only 84
September 10th, 2007 at 6:29 am
More good news for Rudy. What we have to keep in mind here is how stable Rudy’s numbers have been. The Liberal media has egg on their faces. They all predicted Rudy would falter by this juncture, because of lack of support from social cons.
BTW, what were the Ron Paul numbers? I bet the standard 1 to 2%.
Libertarians for Giuliani
http://www.mainstreamlibertarian.com
September 10th, 2007 at 8:43 am
wisconsin,
true, but mccain has been pro-life his entire career plus in think he ranks better in pork spending. i think that gives mccain the edge imo. i guess it’s debatable who’s the more social conservative between the two.
September 10th, 2007 at 8:52 am
Sampo,
Nope, sorry. Thompson ranks in the top tier in cutting spending during his time in congress.
http://www.ntu.org/main/press_release_printable.php?PressID=113&org_name=NTU
“Not all Members of Congress fought day in and day out during 2002 for the principle of limited government that is the cornerstone of our country’s greatness,†said NTU President John Berthoud. “Fortunately, at least 36 allies in Congress demonstrated an unwavering commitment to taxpayers. We are proud to honor this fiscal ‘coalition of the willing.’â€
NTU officials furnished a special certificate to “Taxpayers’ Friend Award†winners during the ceremony that recognized each recipient’s efforts to “further the cause of vitally needed fiscal integrity.â€
The Rating, which since 1978 has been based on every roll call vote affecting fiscal policy, assigns a “Taxpayer Score†to each Member of Congress that indicates his or her support for reducing or controlling federal spending, taxes, debt, and regulation. In the year 2002, a total of 139 House and 115 Senate roll call votes were selected. The average Taxpayer Score was 41 percent in the House – roughly equal to 2001’s mark. However, averages slumped significantly in the Senate, to 40 percent in 2002 versus 46 percent the year before.
U.S. Senate
John Ensign (NV) Jon Kyl (AZ) Rick Santorum (PA)
Mike Enzi (WY) Richard Lugar (IN) Craig Thomas (WY)
Phil Gramm (TX) Don Nickles (OK) Fred Thompson (TN)
September 10th, 2007 at 8:54 am
also… ontheissues rankes mccain more conservatively than thompson.