“Mitt’s dad was Gov of Michigan so with a little effort he can lock up his first big state.”
Nate,
Please note that Rudy is nipping at his heels in above polls. Your argument about Gerge Romney as Michgan’s governor is a good one, but it should have been predicated with “…and if Mitt losses this primary, he’s toast.”
George Romney was governor of Michigan in the 1960s, nearly four decades ago. Probably only about 20% of current Michiganders even know the guy’s name. It’s a small plus for Mitt Romney (as is his growing up there), but a win would be difficult and well-earned. And a strong second or third would NOT doom his campaign.
Mitt hasn’t campaigned in Michigan much, but Saul Anuzsis, the GOP state chair observed earlier this week that Romney has by far the strongest organization in the state, and he has been endorsed by a majority of the Republicans in the state legislature. As a native of the state with ties that go way back, he should be able to pull away and open up a larger lead before January.
Not only would they have had to have been alive at that time, but they’d also had to have loved George Romney so much that they’d be willing to vote in a primary for his son four decades later just because he’s his son.
Justin S,
See #7, to which I could have added the fact that Mitt will have victories in place before Michigan in at least Iowa and New Hampshire, and possibly Wyoming to give momentum to his effort in Michigan. I agree that Michigan is the key state in that a Rudy win there would bleeding. Mitt knows this and will commit as many resources as it takes. But, if Rudy loses there, where is his firewall? Florida on January 29th comes too late, and if Rudy hasn’t won a state before then, he probably won’t win Florida anyway.
I think MI could be the state where a McCain withdrawal could have a serious impact.
If McCain does poorly in IA and Romney looks like he could win NH and MI and possibly seal the deal, McCain’s withdrawal and endorsement of Rudy or Fred could be decisive in MI and SC.
This poll basically has Mitt and Rudy tied and a 5pt MOE is very high. McCain gets 15%. Not enough to win but enough to be a kingmaker.
Let’s say Mitt wins IA comfortably but in NH it’s close or Rudy wins(Rudy was 4 behind Mitt in a recent poll). In any event, the delegate count could be fairly close between the 2 of them.
A poor showing in NH, and the knowledge that a Romney win in MI could give him the nomination, could cause McCain(who we all know doesn’t like Romney), to drop out after NH and endorse Rudy or Fred, giving them MI and SC, the momentum for FL, and dealing a death blow to Romney.
I think McCain’s withdrawal in January and who he endorses or supports could determine who wins the nomination.
of course if his fundraising and poll numbers continue to decline, McCain could withdraw before January, which owuld also help Rudy and Fred.
nevertheless, these polls will continue to change and lots of things will happen between now and january.
The 3rd qtr fundraising will be interesting to see.
Will Mitt donate to himself again?
In Q1 he raised 20.5(6M on day one) and gave himself 2.5. In Q2 he raised 14.5 and gave himself 6.5. So he’s raised 35 and given himself 9, but dropped 30% or so from 1 to 2 in amount raised.
Rudy had 15 in Q1 and 18.5 in Q2 for 33.5M total. But he increased by 20% from 1 to 2.
Fred raised 3.5 in Q1 and I’ve read that he has 2.5M through July and August for a total of 6M thus far. I’ll say he has a good September and ends up with at least 15M total.
Who will win Q3? Will Mitt donate another 6+M to hi campaign? Will a disappointing number for McCain(say below 7.5M) cause him to withdraw?
This polls may be an outlier. Observing Pollster.com’s Michigan Polls chart, Rudy has a lead of roughly 5 to 10 points. True, this is the first state polls that is entirely post-Ames, so it may be valid. But still, until we have a few more state polls, we have to suppose Rudy is still leading. Mitt will need to become more active in Michigan if he is to erase Rudy’s lead.
I really don’t think the Romney name is as big in Michigan as a lot of Romney’s people are suggesting. George Romney hasn’t been Governor for years. Another Romney relative tried to run for the Senate back in 1996 and got beat pretty badly. That was Ronna if I’m not mistaken. She was a Social Conservative like Mitt. George Romney was a Liberal Republican. Lots of Michigan Republicans voting for Romney in this poll probably think they’re voting for someone like his dad. Once they find out differently, his support will fall.
You know…(that’s often a Hillary starter) I had thought Sen. Brownback was right on all the issues that I care about. But after very brief visits to Brownback blogs I was so turned off and sickened by hatred that spews out of his supporters, I have lost respect for Sen. Brownback.
I’m not a Mitt fan. But to see Brownback supporters say he will burn in hell for naming his dog Marley is the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever heard.
Not that I’m aligning myself with TLG or Awakened, but I would be more on their side than the vitriol that comes from Blogs for Bownback.
Romney has been trending higher in nearly every poll in most every state. Can’t see why MI would be any different. Once Romney gets his organizational machine established, he’ll have MI locked up for sure.
I might add to that, 21, that homosexuals were going to kill the Brownback supporter in his stupid, obviously, made-up story. The fact that a Senator has crazed people working for him and does not condemn them is quite telling of his character.
‘I might add to that, 21, that homosexuals were going to kill the Brownback supporter in his stupid, obviously, made-up story. The fact that a Senator has crazed people working for him and does not condemn them is quite telling of his character.’
1) They don’t work for the Senator.
2) It’s a satirical site. And I love it.
I used to like Brownback for saying that he would compete at Ames, but everything he has said and done after that has brought me to the conclusion that I would rather have Hillary than Brownback. Hillary would govern poorly, yet make Democrats look bad. Brownback would govern poorly, and devastate the Republican Party.
August 31st, 2007 at 5:25 pm
Mitt’s dad was Gov of Michigan so with a little effort he can lock up his first big state.
August 31st, 2007 at 5:30 pm
Ah! There’s the fix from the last poll which had Mitt in 5th.
August 31st, 2007 at 5:33 pm
McCain is surprisingly weak. Did they poll Independents?
August 31st, 2007 at 5:39 pm
“Mitt’s dad was Gov of Michigan so with a little effort he can lock up his first big state.”
Nate,
Please note that Rudy is nipping at his heels in above polls. Your argument about Gerge Romney as Michgan’s governor is a good one, but it should have been predicated with “…and if Mitt losses this primary, he’s toast.”
August 31st, 2007 at 6:17 pm
George Romney was governor of Michigan in the 1960s, nearly four decades ago. Probably only about 20% of current Michiganders even know the guy’s name. It’s a small plus for Mitt Romney (as is his growing up there), but a win would be difficult and well-earned. And a strong second or third would NOT doom his campaign.
August 31st, 2007 at 6:17 pm
This means that of the first 5, Romney is ahead in 4: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and Michigan.
August 31st, 2007 at 6:47 pm
Mitt hasn’t campaigned in Michigan much, but Saul Anuzsis, the GOP state chair observed earlier this week that Romney has by far the strongest organization in the state, and he has been endorsed by a majority of the Republicans in the state legislature. As a native of the state with ties that go way back, he should be able to pull away and open up a larger lead before January.
August 31st, 2007 at 6:48 pm
Thank you, Marksal.
Not only would they have had to have been alive at that time, but they’d also had to have loved George Romney so much that they’d be willing to vote in a primary for his son four decades later just because he’s his son.
August 31st, 2007 at 7:08 pm
If Romney loses Michigan his campaign is over.
August 31st, 2007 at 7:26 pm
Justin S,
See #7, to which I could have added the fact that Mitt will have victories in place before Michigan in at least Iowa and New Hampshire, and possibly Wyoming to give momentum to his effort in Michigan. I agree that Michigan is the key state in that a Rudy win there would bleeding. Mitt knows this and will commit as many resources as it takes. But, if Rudy loses there, where is his firewall? Florida on January 29th comes too late, and if Rudy hasn’t won a state before then, he probably won’t win Florida anyway.
August 31st, 2007 at 7:28 pm
In #10, that should be “stop the bleeding.”
August 31st, 2007 at 7:48 pm
I think MI could be the state where a McCain withdrawal could have a serious impact.
If McCain does poorly in IA and Romney looks like he could win NH and MI and possibly seal the deal, McCain’s withdrawal and endorsement of Rudy or Fred could be decisive in MI and SC.
This poll basically has Mitt and Rudy tied and a 5pt MOE is very high. McCain gets 15%. Not enough to win but enough to be a kingmaker.
Let’s say Mitt wins IA comfortably but in NH it’s close or Rudy wins(Rudy was 4 behind Mitt in a recent poll). In any event, the delegate count could be fairly close between the 2 of them.
A poor showing in NH, and the knowledge that a Romney win in MI could give him the nomination, could cause McCain(who we all know doesn’t like Romney), to drop out after NH and endorse Rudy or Fred, giving them MI and SC, the momentum for FL, and dealing a death blow to Romney.
I think McCain’s withdrawal in January and who he endorses or supports could determine who wins the nomination.
August 31st, 2007 at 8:00 pm
Argamenon,
Not sure what one early primary you’re forgetting, but Romney is a dog in South Carolina AND Florida. Both “top 5″ early primaries.
August 31st, 2007 at 8:05 pm
winning iowa for dummies:
in 2000: “i promise you 190 billion dollars in farm subsidies” says bush. bush wins….
in 2008: “i promise you 286 billion dollars in farm subsidies” says??? mitt romney(?)
http://www.freshplaza.com/news_detail.asp?id=5365
and we scratch our heads wondering why McCain (a true free marketer) who supports $0 in subsidies to farmers does poorly in iowa.
August 31st, 2007 at 8:23 pm
of course if his fundraising and poll numbers continue to decline, McCain could withdraw before January, which owuld also help Rudy and Fred.
nevertheless, these polls will continue to change and lots of things will happen between now and january.
The 3rd qtr fundraising will be interesting to see.
Will Mitt donate to himself again?
In Q1 he raised 20.5(6M on day one) and gave himself 2.5. In Q2 he raised 14.5 and gave himself 6.5. So he’s raised 35 and given himself 9, but dropped 30% or so from 1 to 2 in amount raised.
Rudy had 15 in Q1 and 18.5 in Q2 for 33.5M total. But he increased by 20% from 1 to 2.
Fred raised 3.5 in Q1 and I’ve read that he has 2.5M through July and August for a total of 6M thus far. I’ll say he has a good September and ends up with at least 15M total.
Who will win Q3? Will Mitt donate another 6+M to hi campaign? Will a disappointing number for McCain(say below 7.5M) cause him to withdraw?
August 31st, 2007 at 8:38 pm
Fred raised 3.5 in Q1 – that’s sick – poor donors supporting a lagging cause. Maybe Fred can prove me wrong in September.
August 31st, 2007 at 8:53 pm
Jim,
I think you meant Thompson raised 3.5 in Q2 (Jun 1- Jun 30).
August 31st, 2007 at 10:21 pm
This polls may be an outlier. Observing Pollster.com’s Michigan Polls chart, Rudy has a lead of roughly 5 to 10 points. True, this is the first state polls that is entirely post-Ames, so it may be valid. But still, until we have a few more state polls, we have to suppose Rudy is still leading. Mitt will need to become more active in Michigan if he is to erase Rudy’s lead.
August 31st, 2007 at 10:28 pm
I really don’t think the Romney name is as big in Michigan as a lot of Romney’s people are suggesting. George Romney hasn’t been Governor for years. Another Romney relative tried to run for the Senate back in 1996 and got beat pretty badly. That was Ronna if I’m not mistaken. She was a Social Conservative like Mitt. George Romney was a Liberal Republican. Lots of Michigan Republicans voting for Romney in this poll probably think they’re voting for someone like his dad. Once they find out differently, his support will fall.
August 31st, 2007 at 10:53 pm
FYI, blogs4brownback has officially changed its name to bigots4brownback with a mirror site at liars4brownback. Thank you for your support.
August 31st, 2007 at 11:18 pm
You know…(that’s often a Hillary starter) I had thought Sen. Brownback was right on all the issues that I care about. But after very brief visits to Brownback blogs I was so turned off and sickened by hatred that spews out of his supporters, I have lost respect for Sen. Brownback.
I’m not a Mitt fan. But to see Brownback supporters say he will burn in hell for naming his dog Marley is the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever heard.
Not that I’m aligning myself with TLG or Awakened, but I would be more on their side than the vitriol that comes from Blogs for Bownback.
August 31st, 2007 at 11:21 pm
hahaha,
Too funny #20 Psycho. But how true that is.
Romney has been trending higher in nearly every poll in most every state. Can’t see why MI would be any different. Once Romney gets his organizational machine established, he’ll have MI locked up for sure.
August 31st, 2007 at 11:33 pm
I might add to that, 21, that homosexuals were going to kill the Brownback supporter in his stupid, obviously, made-up story. The fact that a Senator has crazed people working for him and does not condemn them is quite telling of his character.
September 1st, 2007 at 7:01 am
‘I might add to that, 21, that homosexuals were going to kill the Brownback supporter in his stupid, obviously, made-up story. The fact that a Senator has crazed people working for him and does not condemn them is quite telling of his character.’
1) They don’t work for the Senator.
2) It’s a satirical site. And I love it.
September 1st, 2007 at 12:08 pm
“Brownback supporters say [Mitt] will burn in hell for naming his dog Marley is the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever heard.”
????????????
September 2nd, 2007 at 1:37 am
I used to like Brownback for saying that he would compete at Ames, but everything he has said and done after that has brought me to the conclusion that I would rather have Hillary than Brownback. Hillary would govern poorly, yet make Democrats look bad. Brownback would govern poorly, and devastate the Republican Party.