Is Mitt’s surge coming at Fred’s expense?:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Rudy Giuliani remains on top in the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination. Giuliani earns 26% of the vote from Likely Republican Primary Voters. Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney are essentially tied for second at 18% and 16% respectively. Today’s reading reflects Thompson’s lowest level of support since the first week of June.
Rasmussen Reports Daily National Republican Primary Tracking Poll
- Giuliani – 26%
- Thompson – 18%
- Romney – 16%
- McCain – 10%
- Huckabee – 6%
Daily tracking results are from survey interviews conducted over four days ending last night. Each update includes approximately 600-650 Likely Republican Primary Voters and has an MoE of 4%.
Yesterday, Utah Senator Bob Bennett said, “I think it is now a two-man race between Romney and Giuliani…”
August 30th, 2007 at 9:19 am
[...] post by Kavon W. Nikrad and software by Elliott [...]
August 30th, 2007 at 9:20 am
Short Term is from Fred? Long term from Rudy. Remember it seemed when Fred was at his hottest, he pulled it from Rudy. Now if we begin to see Fred’s votes going to Romney, it just means Romney is now claiming Rudy’s original votes. Fred was just a conduit.
August 30th, 2007 at 9:22 am
Ouch… nice touch Jason
August 30th, 2007 at 9:30 am
I think it may be time to adjust the power rankings again, just a thought given the recent trends in Rasmussen, the early state versus later state strategy, the IOWA straw poll results, etc… just my two cents.
August 30th, 2007 at 9:30 am
can’t wait for lazy head to get in. we will finally see how he holds up in the game. so far it is not looking good.
August 30th, 2007 at 9:34 am
Fred’s been all over the place in this poll this last week.
Did he ever actually confirm a Sept. 4th announcement?
August 30th, 2007 at 9:46 am
By the way Edwards is back up in Iowa over Hillary .
Democrats
Edwards 29
Clinton 24
Obama 22
Richardson 11
Biden 5
Also with what was a good swing through NH for him I think he lay the groundwork for a rebound from the first half of the year that was mostly not good. Obama has seem to taken the month off for the most part and Hillary seem to die down.
August 30th, 2007 at 9:50 am
JB, I hope so, but there have been a few reports that Newt is working with Fred closely, and we all know that if Newt does jump in the race, he would make the announcement in October. He had said that doing so before is too early. So, maybe Fred won’t announce until then.
August 30th, 2007 at 9:58 am
I don’t see any significant movement here. Romney was at 16% a couple weeks after the Ames poll. Then he went back down to 13% for a while. Now he jumps up again slightly for a few days. Unless this is sustained over a longer period, I’m not getting excited. I may be more satisfied once he gets into the 18%-19% range, as that would be new territory for him.
August 30th, 2007 at 10:15 am
Romney will get Fred’s votes and Rudy will get McCain’s. It’s a matter of time.
August 30th, 2007 at 11:08 am
#10 Nate,
I don’t know if it will work exactly like that but if it does it would
spell bad news for Rudy.
August 30th, 2007 at 11:14 am
#9 Richard,
Agreed! I would be more satisfied with 18-19% but if you look back it seems
that Mitt gains 3% every few months and then goes flat for a bit. Considering
he started out in low single digits it’s a pretty big move over the course of 8 months.
By X-mas he should be in the 20-22% range if the ascending line continues
consistently upward as it has been doing. Then again, if FT and/or McCain drop out anytime
soon (of course assuming FT even enters) it will throw everything out of whack, that’s when it will get interesting.
August 30th, 2007 at 2:30 pm
Saying Rudy votes will lean toward McCain is not very likely. If McCain and Thompson clear out then Guiliani is in big trouble, and Huckabee and Romney probably double their numbers. The problem for Huckabee is that a double in numbers won’t even get him close to the top. It will be interesting to see who drops out to save the party from going left. I’m very amused by this. I like Gingrich for the most part, but if he thinks getting in right now for him is too early, he might not be as smart as I thought. Did Thompson and Gingrich forget the story about the tortis and the hare? This is not an 800, this is a marathon!
August 30th, 2007 at 2:45 pm
I’m counting down, only 5 more Rasmussen polls until Thompson comes out of his shell and deserves to be on the poll. It better only be 5 more polls.
August 30th, 2007 at 4:11 pm
If Romney can get above 20% in January in the national polls then he wins. The vote is going to be fractured.
August 30th, 2007 at 5:03 pm
Nate (#10), there has been no indication that Mitt would get Fred or McCain’s votes. In fact, there were a very few polls showing that if either one of them get out, Rudy will get the majority of their supporters.