h/t to reader Matt.
McLaughlin & Associates Iowa Republican Caucus (PDF warning)
- Romney – 35%
- Giuliani – 12%
- Thompson – 11%
- Huckabee – 11%
- Tancredo – 9%
- McCain – 7%
- Brownback – 2%
- Paul – 1%
- Hunter – 1%
Romney is up 3:1 over his nearest rival; Huckabee got a good bounce, although not quite as good as in the ARG poll; McCain is now in 6th place in Iowa; looks like Brownback’s got some awesome momentum in the state.
August 30th, 2007 at 6:53 pm
[...] post by Matt C and software by Elliott [...]
August 30th, 2007 at 7:21 pm
This pollster is quite clearly an agent of Satan. Why else would he manipulate the poll to understate Brownback’s commanding lead?
My candidate, Sam Brownback, will win the primary, and then the general election (it will be landslide). And then, Jesus will return and take care of all the wretched sinners.
See my website if you want to know more about Sam Brownback, this great, patriotic, exciting candidate.
Baptist 4 Brownback
August 30th, 2007 at 7:24 pm
Hey B4B guy…
How does that help Brownback.. Posting that crap?
Looks like another good showing for Huckabee. If this keeps up he’ll be the front runner by October. But Romney continues that lead, I could see Iowa coming down to Huckabee and Romney.
August 30th, 2007 at 7:32 pm
I love baptists for brownback Awakened, keep the faith! I think the Iowa question is who gets 2nd and 3rd.
August 30th, 2007 at 7:33 pm
Bobl,
#2 was joking. I’m sure.
Gotta love the sarcasm “looks like Brownback’s got some awesome momentum in the state.”
His campaign was the most negative to date. I’m please to see that level of negativity backfiring.
August 30th, 2007 at 7:52 pm
So who’s going to fight Iowa?
Romney is clearly going to compete hard. Huckabee has some momentum, is a reasonable fit & will be aiming for a strong 2nd.
Of the others though, will McCain now drop out and focus on NH as his make or break (he doesn’t have the cash to compete in both, and if he had to choose it would have to be NH)?
Will Rudy & FDT compete in Iowa? If they do, their fight for 3rd could knock the other out. (thats assuming Huck gets 2nd, which is no guarentee). Would be fascinating. Given present form, I’m tipping both skip it to prevent that happening.
August 30th, 2007 at 8:29 pm
It was announced today that after Fred announces officially, his first campaigning will be in Iowa. Then New Hampshire. He’s obviously delusional–he’s 24 points down to Romney and he thinks he has a chance to compete? Giuliani campaigned in Iowa the week before the straw poll, and got less than 1 1/2%. Rudy needs a firewall and he’s clearly not going to find one before South Carolina or Florida. It would be a waste of his resources to put another day, or another penny into either Iowa or New Hampshire. Fred is in the same boat, he’s entering the contest too late get traction in either state. He should focus all of his resources on South Carolina, which is, realistically, the first state he can carry. It’s also the one state where Mitt has spent time and resources and come up short. It would take guts, but he might want to go all out for Michigan, which would also be an aggressive move for Rudy. Iowa and New Hampshire have already been decided, it just isn’t official yet.
August 30th, 2007 at 9:30 pm
American Research Group BLOWS…. their polling is never correct and is atroshious
August 30th, 2007 at 9:59 pm
It looks like the Religious Right is starting to pay attention!
This can’t be good for cross-dressing mayors and latter-day “pro-lifers”……
Onward Christian soldiers!!!!
August 30th, 2007 at 10:08 pm
-_-
August 30th, 2007 at 11:12 pm
Yea, but just wait until…something about ads and Rudy.
I think this “firewall†strategy is more aptly named a wishing well strategy. Toss in a coin and hope all your problems will magically and mysteriously go away.
August 30th, 2007 at 11:22 pm
Firewall strategy is an interesting theory, will be fascinating to see if it works.
Rudy sort of has to play a national strategy, particularly now that he’s got behind Romney in Iowa & NH. Although I still reckon he could make a play for the indie vote in NH. Would be a risk, which he hasn’t shown much disposition to do thus far.
August 31st, 2007 at 7:44 am
There is a darker conclusion one might draw about Rudy’s relative lack of success in Iowa compared to his national standing; that once voters start paying closer attention and truly sifting through the candidates, he doesn’t hold up so well.
In which case- outside of his natural haunts in the Mid Atlantic- he might not have a firewall that can withstand the heat of the campaign and the scrutiny of voters. He may not be a “national” candidate at all, just one that people only paying a modicum of attention are familiar with and vaguely like, but who will be abandoned once they start paying closer attention.
August 31st, 2007 at 2:27 pm
With so many candidates focusing on NH right now (there are like 20 of them!), Rudy will be fortunate to even command a second position considerably ahead of others. His strategy then should be on getting McCain, whom he would vote for if he is not running, the hell out of NH. He will gain the majority of McCain supporters, enough to beat Fred, Huckabee, and perhaps Mitt, too. Otherwise, he will finish barely ahead of others if he does win the respectful second place, especially if other come out of IA in a strong second place (either Fred or Huckabee).
September 1st, 2007 at 9:37 am
Rudy’s biggest problem in the early states is that, in order to win he needs McCain to run strongly in Iowa (and split pro-life voters) and weak in New Hampshire (so as to NOT split the so mo/ independants who are turned off by Romney and his record in Mass). Unfortunately for Rudy, McCain is taking the exact OPPOSITE tack, by throwing in the towel in Iowa and moving all his chips to New Hampshire.
At the same time, NH is very much winnible for Rudy, so long as Romney doesn’t get a bounce coming out of Iowa. And to the Romneybots out there, sorry, but if Mitt is leading Iowa by high double digits at this point in the election, an actual win there is going to give him as much of a bounce as Bob Dole got in 1996. Just ask Dole’s 1996 NH chairman how well that
worked out.