From our friends in the northeast, Romney claims a second place spot nationally as Fred and John continue slipping:
Quinnipiac National Republican Primary
Giuliani – 28% (27)
Romney – 15% (10)
Thompson – 12% (15)
McCain – 11% (15)
Gingrich – 7% (5)
Huckabee – 2% (2)
Paul – 2% (1)
All others – 1% or lessSurvey was conducted August 7-13 of 611 Republicans, and has an MoE of 4%.
On the Dem side, Clinton led Obama 36-21. Click the link to check out general election matchups.
August 15th, 2007 at 9:47 am
Well, Mitt’s up more than the MOE. Looks like Thompson and McCain are fading, so Rudy should have 2nd place locked up.
August 15th, 2007 at 9:57 am
How many polls is that now showing Mitt getting ~ 5% bump?
Nice..
August 15th, 2007 at 9:59 am
I wonder if Giuliani will pull out of the Iowa Caucus if it looks like he’s going to finish 3rd or 4th?
Which is worse for Rudy:
Finishing 3rd or 4th at the Iowa Caucus
or
Allowing someone else to get free media attention until New Hampshire?
August 15th, 2007 at 10:01 am
Seriously, even Cox showed up. How hard would Giuliani have had to work and how much would he have had to spend to lock up 2nd?
August 15th, 2007 at 10:01 am
Actually what would be even more interesting is if Brownback drops out and Huckabee shows up Mitt in IA.
August 15th, 2007 at 10:08 am
Seriously if Huckabee can show up Mitt in IA (and it’s at least possible that he can, let’s not forget how much less organization he had than Romney) what’s Romney to do? He’s never ever going to lead nationally *unless* he racks up some wins in early states. And it’s not going to happen for him in SC. I doubt Huckabee will have the organization to compete with Giuliani and Fraud. So what then?
August 15th, 2007 at 10:09 am
Ames historically favors the underdog, so just because those two combined had almost as many votes as Romney, doesn’t mean that if they combined their efforts they would come close. They aren’t even showing up in the Iowa polls. Do you really believe Ron Paul has close to 10 percent support in Iowa?
August 15th, 2007 at 10:14 am
looking at the dates the poll was taken, I have to believe that it is not a full reflection of any post-Ames bounce.
That said, good news for Romney. 20% by September, anyone?
August 15th, 2007 at 10:14 am
If Huckabee showed up Mitt, it would wound Mitt and Fred. It would do more damage to Fred since a lot of Fred’s southern support would shift to Huck.
The only way I see this happening is if Huckabee takes an isolationist tack while the other candidates struggle to flip on a worsening Iraq War.
August 15th, 2007 at 10:22 am
Bjalder,
No way is Ron Paul at 10 percent in IA. No one suggests that. But the same people here that are so hell-bent on saying Romney is improving his chances are touting national polls that show movement for him outside MoE, yes?
Have there been any polls of IA since Ames? And if Huckabee starts to show some movement – even to 7 or 8 percent then you have to at least acknowledge the possibility that it will become “the story” just like Thompson was “the story” in June and Obama was “the story” last spring. After all, Romney pushers have been talking of slow but stady “Mitt-mentum” for months now. Everyone seems to think this weekend helped Romney. I’m not so sure that’s the case because Huckabee got oodles of free press over the weekend and doesn’t have to deal with a flip-flop charge. The guy is a better fit for the Heartland. Don’t get me wrong – I think he’s too fiscally liberal and wouldn’t vote for him at the top of the ticket in the general – but you have to admit that he could play in IA in ways that might not be beneficial to Romney. An evangelical leader in a socially conservative state that likes their farm subsidies. Sounds fiscally liberal to me. I think Huckabee is fiscally liberal. You Romney pushers all wanted Mitt to play ball in IA and show that he’s the only game in town. It could be a case of “Be careful what you wish for…”
August 15th, 2007 at 10:24 am
Rush says that Huck is a democrat in sheep’s clothing–paraphrasing of course.
August 15th, 2007 at 10:31 am
“Rush says that Huck is a democrat in sheep’s clothing–paraphrasing of course.”
-Ouch!
August 15th, 2007 at 10:32 am
I don’t really see Huckabee hurting Mitt, at least not by taking away any of Romney’s support. I think Huckabee is far more likely to hurt Thompson, by taking some of that Southern Evangelical support that has kept Thompson alive.
btw, aren’t we supposed to get new power rankings today.
August 15th, 2007 at 10:32 am
Carl,
He might be. But on fiscal responsibility, isn’t George Bush too. Both are in sync with their stands on social issues, and Bush won the state in 2004.
August 15th, 2007 at 10:33 am
ACT,
I’m not convinced that Thompson will be as viable to socons as he appears to be now once he gets in…if he ever gets in.
August 15th, 2007 at 10:38 am
General Election Match-ups
(among all voters surveyed)
Hillary Clinton 46%
Rudy Giuliani 43%
Hillary Clinton 47%
John McCain 41%
Hillary Clinton 49%
Fred Thompson 38%
Rudy Giuliani 42%
Barack Obama 42%
Barack Obama 43%
John McCain 39%
Barack Obama 46%
Fred Thompson 35%
John Edwards 43%
Rudy Giuliani 42%
John Edwards 45%
John McCain 37%
John Edwards 49%
Fred Thompson 32%
Favorable/Unfavorable (Net)
(among Republican voters surveyed)
Rudy Giuliani 72% / 11% (+61%)
Fred Thompson 51% / 3% (+48%)
John McCain 57% / 19% (+38%)
Mitt Romney 41% / 11% (+30%)
Which Presidential candidate do you think has the most likeable personality?
(among Republican voters surveyed)
Rudy Giuliani 23%
Mitt Romney 13%
Fred Thompson 12%
Hillary Clinton 4%
John Edwards 4%
John McCain 4%
Newt Gingrich 2%
August 15th, 2007 at 12:05 pm
Wow, Mitt is now on par with Fred for the most likeable personality. He is progressing, at least, with just this one polls. We still need to look at next few polls to know whether this jump is here to stay.
August 15th, 2007 at 12:07 pm
Adam (#10), there was a comment in an earlier post that Ras daily polls work over the period of 3 to 4 days. So, we won’t be seeing the true post-Ames polls until tomorrow or Friday. I do not know about the rest of the polls. I suppose they need a couple of weeks.
August 15th, 2007 at 12:11 pm
[...] post by MattC and software by Elliott [...]
August 15th, 2007 at 2:50 pm
And the slide of the one who sleeps continues…
August 15th, 2007 at 3:00 pm
econ grad: Don’t discount Huckabee. My prediction is that he will finish first or second in Iowa (even with Rudy in), then Romney will take New Hampshire and the rest of the race will be a contest between the two.
Fred Thompson is toast. There is no way in hell he’ll do better than Huckabee in Iowa after skipping the Straw poll. And once Huckabee does well there, Thompson’s constituency (Southern evangelicals) will all flock to him.
August 15th, 2007 at 4:24 pm
Argamenon, even though Iowans have a strong sense of values, hence many of them being conservative on social side, it is not true that those are of Religious Right. And besides, Huckabee has failed to build a strong grassroot organization until this point. It remains to see if he could build one within the next month or two. People are quick to forget what has gone on a few weeks ago, so the only thing that would keep the fire burning is your grassroot movement. That’s something we have to keep eyes on. Umm… Should we expect a Huck contributor on this site any time soon?