What’s old is new. Verily, gaze upon the newness of it all.
Democracy Corps has released a study with the feel-good title: “Youth Survey — Republican Collapse Among Young Americans.” This study delves into the political psyche of the 18-29-year-old demographic and reveals what can only be described as a nightmare scenario for traditional conservatives. According to Democracy Corps, a sleeping giant is looming in the under-30 crowd: a generation that rivals the infamous Baby Boomers in size, but that is more Democratic than any generation since the New Deal, with cultural attitudes that are decidedly secular and with even young Republicans in favor of bigger government. Such findings add yet more evidence to my theory that traditional conservatism is a dying philosophy in the Anglosphere, that the center of gravity of American politics is undergoing a gradual yet seismic shift leftward, and that in the not too distant future, the American “Right” will look a lot more like Gov. Arnold and British Tory leader David Cameron than George W. Bush.
Here are some key findings from the study:
The Emerging Democratic Majority: Americans Under Age 30
* 50 percent view the Democratic Party favorably; 35 percent view the GOP favorably.
* Nearly half went to the polls in 2004, nixing the notion that the youth won’t vote. 56 percent voted for Kerry. The only generation giving Kerry a higher percentage was — you guessed it — the New Deal generation.
* In 2006, this generation gave Democrats a 60%-38% margin, the highest of any generation.
* Of the 2008 contenders, Obama is viewed most favorably by this generation, with a 45%/26% favorability rating. Hillary gets a 49%/39% rating, while Rudy is the only prominent Republican with a net positive favorability rating, 40%/29%.
* Democrats overall enjoy a 19-point edge among this generation in party ID. There exists a huge gender gap, with Democrats enjoying a 28-point advantage among women but only an 8-point advantage among men.
* Republicans close the gap as level of education increases. Democrats have a 28-point advantage among voters with a high school education or less, while Republicans hold Democrats down to a 6-point spread among college graduates. Note that this trend is a reversal from what we’ve seen in recent years, with working-class red-state voters identifying as Republicans for cultural reasons and affluent blue-state voters pulling the lever for higher taxes just to make sure abortion stays legal. Are we about to see a return to the New Deal era in more ways than one? Are the erudite and the urbane prepared to take back the GOP while the NASCAR crowd finds its home in the Democratic Party?
* In the race for 2008, Clinton and Obama both beat Rudy by double-digits. Hillary and Rudy are tied among men while Clinton bests Giuliani by 32 points among women.
* Culturally, this generation is quite secular and liberal. The pro-life movement is viewed unfavorably by a margin of 41%-37%. Religious conservatives are looked down upon by a margin of 42% to 27%. Gay marriage is supported by 52%, while 61% believe global warming is a serious problem. A quarter have no religious affiliation, and 60% believe religion should play no role in politics. A majority support a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants.
* Fiscally, this generation has little instinctive opposition to state action. Two-thirds want a bigger government that offers more services. That includes 57% of Republicans. Nearly 60% agree with the notion that government should make health insurance more affordable, help seniors, and ease student loan debt.
* Regarding national security, 64% view the Iraq war unfavorably and 66% want to start withdrawing troops now, including 38% of Republicans. Moreover, the Iraq war has indeed obliterated the 40-year Republican advantage on national security, with this generation favoring Democrats on the GWOT by a margin of 55%-34%.
* This generation favors Democrats on every single issue presented to them by double-digits, except for the gun issue, where Democrats are favored by single-digits.
The sheer size of this generation will ensure its potency as a political force as it continues to come of age. Evidence for that can be seen in the Baby Boomers, who have dominated American politics since they came of age in the 1960s and who, in my view, are the primary source of the polarization of American politics today as they continue to fight proxy wars over everything from Vietnam to affirmative action to contraception to Vatican II as those of us lucky enough to not have lived during the ’60s wait for them to retire and blow up the entitlements. But the Boomers — and I’ll post more on this later — due to their polarization, have made sure that no party has been able to claim a political majority in this country since the New Deal coalition blew up in 1968. The under-30s, however, are as numerous as the Boomers and at least as Democratic as the New Dealers. If anything portends an emerging Democratic or at least liberal majority, it’s this.
Demographics is destiny. And resistance is futile.
I must strongly disagree with the idea that Republicans are being smart to skip a YouTube debate. They should embrace a YouTube debate. The last one was by far the best of the year, and the most revelatory. So what if they should have to answer a question asked a question by a snowman? Why is that any worse than being asked a question by Chris Matthews? And if the questions are ideologically hostile, they can call CNN on it during the debate ? “I gather, Anderson, that there were 5,000 questions submitted. Amazing that you chose questions solely from liberal Democrats.”
- John Podhoretz, making sense, as usual.
I am deeply disappointed at the number of prominent conservatives on the blogosphere downplaying the strategic blunder of dissing the YouTube debate. If anyone should understand the power of the new media, it’s blogosphere conservatives. Some are probably just trying to toe the party line. They shouldn’t. The Republican Party is on the ropes right now, and with a Democratic triple play likely to occur next November, we need all the help we can get. And the YouTube debate could be helpful to any of the candidates. Anyone who dismisses that idea needs to watch the Democratic debate, where Hillary Clinton basically transformed herself into an Eisenhower Republican and made Barack Obama the liberal in the race. One can argue about whether it’s too early for Hillary to adopt a general election strategy given that Democratic primary voters have yet to cast a single ballot in the race for 2008 (I think Hillary’s strategy is the correct one, but that’s another topic for another time). But the fact remains that the YouTube debate, in which regular people get to come up with the questions instead of hotshot journalists, has had a bigger impact on the Democratic race than any of the MSM yawners we’ve seen so far. This simply reinforces the small-c conservative belief that the marketplace of ideas will produce the best product, not the governance of the elites. Not a single one of Chris Matthews’ queries could have generated the Clinton/Obama feud over meeting with foreign leaders that has lasted an entire news cycle.
Conservatives reflexively dismissing the debate need to do two things. First, as painful as it may be, they need to watch the Democratic version. Secondly, they need to step out of the cocoon. The 2006 election wasn’t a dream. Nor was it an anomale. It was the destruction of Rove’s Potemkin majority. Excepting a couple of polls that show Rudy leading the Democrats, every major electoral indicator projects a Democratic victory next year. For the GOP field to skip this opportunity is foolish. For conservative commentators to encourage them to do so is insane.
Yes, it’s worthless. No, it doesn’t mean anything. So don’t complain in the comments. This is just for fun for those of you, like me, who just can’t get enough political results – even from a mock election at a county fair. So here it is, some weekend fun for you (with a hat tip to Keith at Iowans for Romney):
Johnson County Fair Mock Election Results
Romney – 31.2%
Giuliani – 15.1%
F Thompson – 10.1%
Brownback – 7.0%
Gingrich – 5.5%
McCain – 5.5%
Huckabee – 5.0%
T Thompson – 4.0%
Paul – 4.0%
Tancredo – 3.0%
Hunter – 1.0%
There’s something there for just about everyone. 
Rudy Giuliani
Fred Thompson
John McCain
Mitt Romney
General Race 4 2008 News
“On Federalism”
Fred Thompson
July 27, 2007
Segment:
The Framers drew their design for our Constitution from a basic understanding of human nature. From the wisdom of the ages and from fresh experience, they understood the better angels of our nature, and the less admirable qualities of human beings entrusted with power.
The Framers believed in free markets, rights of property and the rule of law, and they set these principles firmly in the Constitution. Above all, the Framers enshrined in our founding documents, and left to our care, the principle that rights come from our Creator and not from our government.We developed institutions that allowed these principles to take root and flourish: a government of limited powers derived from, and assigned to, first the people, then the states, and finally the national government. A government strong enough to protect us and do its job competently, but modest and humane enough to let the people govern themselves. Centralized government is not the solution to all of our problems and ? with too much power ? such centralization has a way of compounding our problems. This was among the great insights of 1787, and it is just as vital in 2007.
The federalist construct of strong states and limited federal government put in place by our Founders was intended to give states the freedom to experiment and innovate. It envisions states as laboratories in competition with each other to develop ideas and programs to benefit their people, to see what works and what does not.
This ingenious means of governing a large and diverse nation prevailed for more than a century. But today our Constitution and the limited, federalist government it established, are considered by many to be quaint or out of touch with the world we live in, to be swept aside by political expediency.
The Supreme Court sometimes ignores the written Constitution to reflect its view of the times. So does Congress, which routinely forgets that our checks and balances, the separation of powers and our system of federalism are designed to diffuse power and protect the liberties of our people. Before anything else, folks in Washington ought to be asking first and foremost, ?Should government be doing this? And if so, then at what level of government?? But they don?t.
The result has been decades of growth in the size, scope and function of national government. Today?s governance of mandates, pre-emptions, regulations, and federal programs bears little resemblance to the balanced system the Framers intended….
I STRONGLY encourage you to read the whole piece here
McCain suffered the loss of two of his communications staff earlier this week, and today he lost Fred Davis, the campaign’s “image maker”. Davis is the guy who designed the campaign’s new logo and redesigned the Straight Talk Express bus, and told reporters today that he is “sadly leaving” the campaign.
Fred Thompson lost his fourth staffer in as many days, today saying goodbye to deputy campaign manager Tom Frechette. According to Jonathan Martin, Frechette “was said to have chafed under the heavy influence of Thompson’s wife, Jeri.”
And they are:
1. Romney (Previously 1st)
2. Giuliani (Tied for 2nd)
3. Thompson (Tied for 2nd)
4. McCain (4th)
5. Huckabee (5th)
Read below the fold for their reasons:
Looks like McCain’s lost a little momentum in his home state of Arizona, but still remains on top:
American Research Group Arizona Republican Primary
McCain – 32% (45)
Giuliani – 23% (21)
Thompson – 15% (-)
Romney – 7% (2)
Gingrich – 7% (11)
All others – 1% or less
Undecided – 13% (18)Survey was conducted July 23-26 of 600 likely Republican primary voters. Numbers in parentheses are from their February poll.
From MSNBC:
The word spreading all over Capitol Hill today is that longtime Fox senior congressional producer Jim Mills is leaving his booth on the House side to join the Fred Thompson quasi-campaign as spokesman. NBC has confirmed that Mills will join Thompson’s organization effective August 20.
Lot’s of “OMG” and even “OMFG” being traded on the e-mail this morning among staffers and press because Mills is something close to a legend on the House side. Known for his pugnacious (yet jocular) style, everyone from Speaker Pelosi to the cashiers down in the basement have gotten a kick out of “Millsy” at one time or another, and in one form or another.
Update:
More from the NRO’s Jim Geraughty:
The reaction among those who don’t know him will be “Ah, a Fox News producer is joining the Thompson campaign, so much for ‘fair and balanced,’ blah blah blah.” For those of us who have encountered Mills on Capitol Hill, there will be a lot of raised eyebrows. Mills is something of a local legend in the Capitol Hill press corps – very smart, tenacious but fair questioner, relentless energy. He somehow manages to have a good relationship with lawmakers while asking them how they got their hand caught in the cookie jar, pointing out that their answer contradicts what they said yesterday with a friendly smile on his face.
One instinctively wonders how Mills will handle the transition from asking questions to answering them, but this is a very impressive hire for Team Fred.
- Rudy Giuliani 21% (26.5%)
- Fred Thompson 18% (21.0%)
- John McCain 11% (10.3%)
- Mitt Romney 7% (10.3%)
- Mike Huckabee 5% (2.0%)
- Undecided 34%
Survey of 400 likely Republican primary voters was conducted July 23-26. The margin of error is +/-5 percent. RealClearPolitics’ polling averages for Florida are in parentheses.
As someone who was pleasantly surprised by the fresh and realistic nature of the YouTube/CNN Democratic debate earlier this week, I am very disappointed that Rudy Guiliani has officially declined to participate and Romney won’t commit either way yet. This is a huge mistake. In the words of Patrick Ruffini, Rudy’s former e-campaign adviser:
Given the huge earned media hit the Democrats got this week, the fact that even the highly partisan questioners acquitted themselves better than Chris Matthews did in the first debate, and the sponsorship of the powerful Republican Party of Florida, I didn’t think the GOP candidates would make the political mistake of passing up it up.
I was apparently wrong.
…
I would now expect numerous candidates to bail, just like they did at Ames, citing the lack of a frontrunner.
This is a big mistake. The Democrats are afraid to answer questions from Big Bad Fox News Anchors, and the Republicans are afraid to answer questions from regular people. Which is worse?
It’s stuff like this that will set the GOP back an election cycle or more on the Internet. No matter the snazzy Web features and YouTube videos they may put up, if they’re fundamentally uncomfortable with the idea of interacting with real people online, what’s the point?
Having spent the better part of a decade working at the intersection of politics and the Web, I can’t help but feel of a deep, deep sense of dismay that we’re missing something so basic. This is EXACTLY why I am afraid that we will be outraised by $100 million or more in 2008.
Yes, some of the questions on Monday were trivial. Yes, they were partisan. (I expect many of the 9/17 questioners to be partisan Republicans.) Yes, they were messy. But so is democracy. And the fact that some place so much faith in the broken mainstream media over a benign format like this one says a lot about the difficult straits the Republicans are in right now.
Perhaps the rest of the field will prove me wrong.
I really don’t understand the logic here. At worst, it ends up as mediocre as the other debates were. Romney would gain more media exposure. But by opting out, it just makes it way too easy to be painted by the Democrats and the media as dodging the everyday person and avoiding unscripted questions. On the other hand, given that the informal format is what he excels at most, I’d be very surprised if John McCain didn’t show up to the debate.
Rudy Giuliani
Fred Thompson
John McCain
Mitt Romney
General Race 4 2008 News
I have written often about how inspired I come away from observing Sam Brownback’s Iowa team first-hand. The scores of enthusiastic and deeply committed young people that Sen. Brownback has working for him in the state always serves to temper my general pessimism concerning the future of the Republican Party. At least for a little while…
So I present this video for two purposes… First of all, in this video you can see the kids I have written about so many times for yourselves. Their exuberance shines through even in this YouTube clip.
Secondly, what happens on the ground in Iowa every four-years is American History folks! And it is history that the vast majority of Americans never get to witness firsthand. For better or worse, the process of this country choosing it’s presidents begins in small rooms like the one featured in this video across Iowa and New Hampshire.
So without further ado… Here is Sen. Sam Brownback throwing an ice cream social for his volunteers in West Des Moines Iowa:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JMKguwEuQRE[/youtube]
Guess who’s the favorite candidate of Maxim Magazine?
Barack Candy: Former Hometown Hotties contender Amber Lee Ettinger grabbed the national spotlight last week after lusciously lip-synching her affections for Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama on YouTube. The nation may be divided on border control and foreign policy, but we think we may have found a uniter.
That’s right. You guessed it.
Obama Girl
And I thought she was actually singing….
From KCRG TV in Cedar Rapids comes our first Iowa poll in a while, where Romney maintains his double digit lead:
Research 2000 Iowa Republican Caucus
- Romney – 25% (16)
- F Thompson – 14% (9)
- Giuliani – 13% (17)
- McCain – 10% (18)
- Gingrich – 6% (6)
- Huckabee – 2% (2)
- Thompson – 2% (3)
- Tancredo – 2% (3)
- Brownback – 2% (2)
- Hunter – 1% (1)
- Paul – 1% (0)
- Undecided – 22%
Survey was conducted July 23-25 of 400 likely Republican caucus-goers. Numbers in parentheses are from their May poll.
On the Dem side, Edwards leads Hillary 27-22, with Obama at 16% and Richardson with a surprising 11%.
Straight from Fred Thompson, himself:
Most Americans want something to be done about the illegal immigration problem we have in this country. They?ve been expecting the federal government to enforce the immigration laws already on the books. The federal government hasn?t done that, so it shouldn?t come as a surprise that the governments closest to the people ? municipal and state ? are looking to take action. This is an entirely proper role for these governments.
Back in 2006, the citizens of Hazleton, Penn., were noticing some troubling signs resulting from an influx of illegal immigrants. They were seeing an uptick in the number of murders, an increase in drug-related crimes and a school district bursting at its seams. In fact the English as a Second Language program reportedly went from $500 a year in 2001 to more than $1 million a year today. The citizens of Hazleton demanded that something be done, and the Illegal Immigration Relief Act was introduced by the mayor and supported by the city council by a vote of 4 to 1.
Let?s be clear about what?s going on here. No matter what some groups may be trying to do to muddy the water and portray Hazleton?s law as something playing to an uglier agenda, this law is not about legal immigration. This law is about dealing with the illegal immigration problem in Hazleton. The town?s mayor and city officials made this clear from the beginning, and it seems like they took a common sense approach.
Our constitutional system allows cities to take reasonable steps to protect their citizens. When the federal government is unwilling to enforce immigration laws effectively, then cities need to be able to act, and take reasonable steps to secure their citizens from the social, financial, and criminal costs of illegal immigration.
No doubt, this ruling will be appealed. And it should be.
- Rudy Giuliani 20%
- Fred Thompson 19%
- John McCain 17%
- Mitt Romney 8%
Without McCain in the race
- Rudy Giuliani 36%
- Fred Thompson 21%
- Mitt Romney 11%
McCain supporters’ 2nd choice
- Rudy Giuliani 53%
- Fred Thompson 9%
- Mitt Romney 4%
Literally 100% of Independents likely to vote in the GOP primary chose Giuliani as their second choice if McCain were to drop out of the race.
Favorable/Unfavorable/(Net)
- Rudy Giuliani 72%/ 20% (+52%)
- Fred Thompson 44%/ 10% (+34%)
- John McCain 57%/ 31% (+26%)
- Mitt Romney 40%/ 18% (+22%)
Survey of 250 likely Republican primary voters was conducted July 19-22. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich was not included in this poll.
The reason that all of these negative stories about Fred are getting traction is because he’s not doing anything else. Not campaigning. Not participating in any debates. There’s no positive story to counter with. As Chris Cillizza notes:
Our sense of the ongoing Thompson staff shuffle is that it is teetering on the brink of becoming just plain bad news. The sharks are circling and whispers about the too-prominent role of Thompson’s wife — Jeri — are everywhere. With news of every departure, the story tilts away from Thompson’s best interests.
The audience for this story remains largely confined within the Beltway for the moment, which is good for Thompson. But staff stirrings can lead to stories about disorganization, unhappiness and general disorder, and that is a narrative that does Thompson’s “campaign” no good, especially as he prepares to launch his bid formally sometime in the next month or so.
Indeed. It’s not only the fact that the campaign is torn between pro and anti-Jeri factions, it’s that the advisers are leaking information that directly contradicts the leaks of other advisers. Several hours after Tom Collamore left the campaign, leaks began appearing that said that contrary to being fired, it was always the plan that he would only be with the campaign for a short while. A few hours after that, several sources confirmed that he was indeed let go because he butted heads with Jeri Thompson. Clearly, there is a lack of a unified message within the campaign.
This disturbing pattern was repeated today when a “Thompson associate” talking to Jim Geraghty disputed Marc Ambinder’s characterization of Sean LeBlond as Thompson’s lead political advance operative:
“LeBlond is a fine young man and a credit to his family, but he was a kid who was a junior, junior aide to[departed campaign chief] Tom Collamore,” the associate said. “He was not our lead political advance, he was never our lead political advance… We right how have political advance teams working before every stop Fred Thompson goes to. [LeBlond] may have assisted informally with the recent trips to New York and Richmond, but that’s it. We have additional advance staff that we’re going to be announcing soon, but they’ll be based out of Nashville, not Washington. LeBlond was based in Washington… This is a whole lot of nothing.”
Seems plausible enough. But the story wasn’t as cut and dry as that:
I should note that I’m hearing a different tune from another Thompson Associate. This individual has been less than thrilled with the developments in Thompson’s not-quite-campaign in recent weeks, and this person indicates that LeBlond’s activities were significantly more than the First Associate indicated.
There is a vocal (and seemingly growing) segment within the Thompson campaign that is deeply unsatisfied and is letting their frustrations be known. Several more resignations are expected over the next few days. This isn’t just the normal growing pains of a campaign. I think the fissures appeared because the team that was put together to run the show has no history of working together and there is no clearly defined hierarchical command structure. If Fred doesn’t step in and get his people on message, this will just continue to get worse.
The questions I have are: Does he attempt the stop this by pushing up his announcement plans and making it official next week? Or will he try and ride out the storm and stick the the original plans to kick off his campaign, which could be a while given that “October isn’t completely impossible”?
In the past few months, I’ve traveled the country talking and listening to folks. I’ve been discussing where I see America going, about what we need to do to keep our nation secure, what we must do to keep this remarkable economy growing, and the challenges we must address together for the next generation of Americans. I believe the United States is at a crossroads, and what I’m hearing on the road is that a lot of people agree with me. They’re ready to move forward together to meet our challenges here at home and abroad. They aren’t buying into the defeatist talk about our security, our economy, and our future. During this “testing the waters” effort we’ve undertaken, I’ve been saying the political waters feel pretty warm. It’s allowed us to start laying the foundation of a good team across the country and to keep up this national conversation we’ve been having. Now we’re going to take that conversation to a different level. On Tuesday, August 7th, we’re inaugurating a new weekly “I’m With Fred” email, complete with news, updates, and photos from the road. We’re also working on the ImWithFred website 2.0, in order to keep in touch on a daily basis and to give you more opportunities to join us at events, help us organize, and spread the word about our efforts.I’m excited about what I’m seeing out on the road. I appreciate everything you’re doing for our effort.
Sincerely,
At this molasses-like pace, Thompson’s greatest challenge will be to keep prospective Fredheads motivated and on the political sidelines, waiting for the former Senator to jump in with both feet. Fred may be wisely gaming the system by “testing the waters”, but he’s starting to test the patience of the many passengers considering a voyage on the USS Thompson.
Tom Collamore resigned two days ago because, as Marc Ambinder reports today, of conflict between he and Thompson’s wife Jeri:
Tom Collamore did not mesh with Jeri Thompson and the friction between the two was evident to the rest of the staff. At times, Kehn Thompson would simply countermand Collamore’s instructions. She has final hiring authority — something that every campaign manager needs and Collamore never had. The Thompson presidential staff will be her staff more than Fred’s.
Then yesterday it was Thompson’s lead opposition researcher, J.T. Mastranadi, who was “fed up” with the Thompson campaign and its lack of organization.
Now, today, Thompson’s lead political advance operative, Sam LeBlond, quit the team after less than two weeks of suiting up for Fred — and “associates of Thompson” said to expect more resignations before the end of the week.
“If I don’t win, I’ll be shocked.”
-Tommy Thompson, on his chances at the Ames Straw Poll in 16 days.
Tommy has said if he doesn’t place in the top two in Ames, he will drop out of the race. The race for second place in Ames is going to be the most anticipated story of August. Will Thompson, who has camped out in Iowa since last December organizing a ground game, be able to pull off a second-place finish? Will Brownback, who is courting conservatives hard in the state, be able to overcome him? Will Huckabee, who has said if he isn’t in the top tier of candidates after Ames that he would drop out of the race as well, be able to hold enough townhall meetings and display enough of his charisma to overcome his lack of organization? Will Ron Paul finally be able to funnel internet support into real votes? And where will Rudy and McCain fall when all is said and done?
- Fred Thompson 26%
- Rudy Giuliani 25%
- John McCain 11%
- Mitt Romney 11%
- Mike Huckabee 3%
Daily tracking results are from survey interviews conducted over four days ending last night. Each update includes approximately 600-650 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
As we all know, before Fred graced the set of “Law and Order” he worked as a real trial lawyer for a number of clients that ranged the gambit from white collar criminals to family members of a Marine who was killed. According to the Washington Post Thompson:
… worked as a lawyer who argued against the government’s authority to regulate drug paraphernalia or to search a boat packed with 14 tons of marijuana.
Once, two decades ago, he urged that more witnesses refuse to testify before grand juries by invoking their constitutional right against self-incrimination, boasting that “I start on the assumption that my client will not testify.” And over the years, lawsuits he filed helped a state worker win reinstatement to her job while exposing a parole bribery scheme and won money for the family of a Marine pilot killed by a helicopter blade when the family could not sue the Defense Department.
It seems the ties to trial lawyer money ran deep into his Senate campaigns:
“We viewed him as someone we could work with, particularly given he had been an advocate in court for individuals and corporations, and had an innate understanding of what went on in a civil jury,” explained Linda Lipsen, the chief lobbyist for the American trial lawyers lobby group that Republicans often pilloried for opposing tort reform during the 1990s.
Unlike many Republicans during the 1990s, Thompson easily collected large sums of political donations from lawyers during his Senate career — more than $1.5 million over eight years. The trial lobby’s political action committee gave him maximum $10,000 donations during each of his two Senate campaigns.
Apparently, he voted in kind:
In the Senate, Thompson routinely voted against legislation aimed at shrinking the size of fees that attorneys could collect and rejected limits on medical malpractice lawsuits, bucking his own party. Most Republicans supported such reforms, arguing that trial lawyers routinely filed frivolous lawsuits or won unnecessarily large awards that drove up the cost of insurance and products.
The American Conservative Union gave Thompson a lifetime score of 86, placing him in the middle of Republicans it rated. The group noted that he voted against two of the four lawsuit changes the group supported.
“When you are taking a look at Thompson as a conservative,” said ACU Chairman David Keene, “the negatives come down to plowing around with John McCain on campaign finance and a general sense that he sided with trial lawyers because of his background.”
The story goes on to note that Thompson has recently supported certain aspects of tort reform but the conclusion can only be reached that Fred’s trial lawyer days are not that appealing to conservatives.
Rudy Giuliani
Fred Thompson
John McCain
Mitt Romney
Newt Gingrich
General Race 4 2008 News
It looks like Carl Carmeron at Fox News is hearing similar rumblings to the earlier MSNBC report regarding the internal battles within the Thompson campaign:
For months, the former Tennessee senator has been rising in the polls by merely “testing the waters” and refusing to undertake the traditional trappings of a presidential campaign.
But there has been much speculation about the role of Thompson’s wife, Jeri Kehn Thompson, and today, a senior adviser to Fred Thompson today stepped out of a day-to-day role in the campaign because of friction with her.
When asked to confirm reports that Tom Collamore would reduce his role to senior adviser, two senior Thompson insiders adamantly denied it to FOX News today, insisting that the emergence of Randy Enright as campaign manager and the reduction of Tom Collamore’s role had always been part of the plan.
But multiple sources close to Thompson now tell FOX News that denial was inaccurate. In fact, Collamore and Kehn butted heads, and that was partially responsible for Collamore’s move.
Thompson’s wife Jeri is a hard-nosed former Republican party operative and a long time political professional with a strong will. Insiders have long speculated that her personality would play a big role in the narrative of Thompson’s candidacy.
The fact that Fred Thompson’s campaign has seemingly split between pro and anti-Jeri Thompson camps before he has officially announced speaks volumes. Senior advisers clearly aren’t happy with the role that she’s in and their making their feelings known. It’s important to point out that this criticism has been around for a while now:
“She’s running the campaign,” grouses one veteran GOP political operative involved in the Draft Fred movement. “It’s the No. 1 rule of politics: The wife can’t be the campaign manager.”
Playing a role is fine, says the unnamed operative, “but not calling all the day-to-day shots.”
The campaign needs to get on the same page or the dissension will only grow larger.
Given all of this, not to mention the poor fundraising performance, the lack of a official announcement date, and the fact that noted conservative columnist Debbie Schlussel has come out strongly against him makes this an extremely rough couple of days for Thompson.
A Ron Paul heckler showed up at the airport in Texas today to speak with Fred Thompson. Be sure and watch the ending. This is the kind of thing that gives Dr. Paul a bad name.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvMWGNX7HlI[/youtube]
UPDATE: From MSNBC
****UPDATE****Per NBC’s Clint Houston, on the ground in Hobby, TX….
In addition to Thompson’s vocal heckler, a second protestor was asked to leave the premises at this morning’s campaign stop in Hobby. Unlike his counterpart, the man went quietly out a back door at officials’ request. Neither protestor was arrested after being escorted off the property by police.
Here’s the kicker: The two were spotted leaving together in a car sporting a Ron Paul bumper sticker.
Lately, I’ve been a reliable source of gloom and doom here at R4’08. This is largely because my political spider sense, which is often right, though not always, agrees with that of folks like Frank Luntz, Fred Siegel, and Mona Charen, inasmuch as I believe that the most likely outcome next November is a Democratic House, a Democratic Senate, and a Democratic president. But that doesn’t mean that such an outcome is the only possible outcome. To the contrary, we still have over a year until the election. As such, it’s time to start talking about what Republicans can do to win next year’s race for the White House.
The latest polling averages from Real Clear Politics suggest that the almost certain Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, leads the GOP Big Three by a range of 2 to 10 percentage points, with Rudy doing best against Hillary and Romney faring worst. The closeness of the race is a testament to Hillary’s high negatives, as well as to the fact that all of our guys enjoy some degree of independence from the national Republican establishment of the last few years. Put simply, our guys can point to things like Iraq and rightly claim that they had “nuttin’ to do with it.” In this sense, we are lucky that a sitting veep is not representing our side in the race, as he’d almost certainly lose to Hillary. Big time.
But a polarizing opponent and a degree of independence are not enough for our guys to actually beat the Democrats next year. Those factors will ensure that the election is another nailbiter, though probably with different swing states, but in order for our guys to surpass Clinton, they have to be able to win some combination of a) Kerry voters who don’t want to vote for Hillary and b) Bush voters who have ripped the “W” from their car.
What do these groups have in common? Neither of them like President Bush. The former group couldn’t stomach him in 2004, which means they almost certainly loathe the man now. The latter group likely feels betrayed by the presdent or disenchanted with his presidency and is in no mood to elect a president who will (heh) stay the course of the Bush White House. As such, in order for one of our guys to win, he’s going to have to run against both the Democrats AND George W. Bush.
Note that this is not an ideological statement. This is not a recommendation to run up the middle, or down the center, or however the saying goes. Nor is it a call to run to Bush’s right, though that’s certainly preferable on some issues. The GOP nominee needs to stake out popular conservative positions that win elections, as many of them are currently doing, while also channeling voters’ anger at Bush and congressional Republicans. If I were advising any of the GOP presidential contenders, I would recommend that he repeat the following phrases early and often:
1) There was no excuse for the nomination of Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court of the United States. In the wake of charges of cronyism regarding the Administration’s handling of Katrina, the president’s selection of his personal counsel to fill a vacancy on SCOTUS was politically tone-deaf and ill-advised. Miers’ lack of a coherent judicial philosophy, though, was the core of the problem, and the president’s assurance that Miers was a good pick because she had the right religious values for the job added insult to injury. Judicial conservatives rightly explained to the president that the job of a Supreme Court Justice was to make decisions based on the words of the Constitution, not personal values, well-meaning or otherwise. A judicial activist by any other name is still a judicial activist. The president’s attempt to sneak one onto SCOTUS would be an easy target for a GOP presidential candidate who wants to reassure the base on judges while decrying the cronyism and incompetence of the Bush Administration.
2) There was no excuse for the Administration’s handling of Katrina. This marked the point at which the president’s poll numbers took a major nose-dive and never really recovered. The Katrina response embodies the incompetence that voters now associate with the Bush White House and the national GOP. Rudy, Romney, and Thompson should be explaining to voters why they would be better able to handle a crisis than the current White House occupant.
3) There is no excuse for the situation in Iraq. Well, okay, there is a fairly significant excuse for the situation in Iraq: the millennia-old pathologies of the Arab world. But there was no excuse for not recognizing the existence of those pathologies from the start, there was no excuse for not taking them into account when embarking on a project to graft a Western-style liberal democracy onto Mesopotamia, and there was no excuse for not adequately communicating to the American people the sacrifices required for this war other than the occasional presentation of a false choice such as, “stay the course/cut and run.” All of our guys seem wedded to the Bush Doctrine; perhaps the GOP base will accept no less. But even an advocate for the Bush Doctrine can quibble with the president’s execution of his own doctrine. And while I’m not holding my breath, I’d also like to see our guys adopt the Derbyshire Maxim on Foreign Policy (my name for it, not his):
What is really not in America’s interest is for us to go into wars we do not intend to conclude swiftly and decisively, and with the prior understanding that
(a) Brief, ferocious punitive or monitory expeditions against regimes that have vexed us are likely to leave major chaos behind when concluded; and
(b) Complete pacification of largely-unfriendly, nation-sized populations is likely only possible by “Roman” methods; if we can’t stomach those methods, we should not embark on such projects.
Ever notice how John Derbyshire seems to be right about everything?
4) There is no excuse for the president’s unwillingness to veto a single spending bill. Except, of course, the bill funding stem cell research. Endless government spending with the sole exception being that which offends the president’s religious beliefs is a governance so distinctly unconservative that I just don’t know where to start. Again, our guys have all been talking about fiscal sanity, but none have channeled the anger of the American people against the Congress who spent so recklessly and the president who signed such recklessness into law. Wait, I take that back. John McCain used his drunken sailor joke at every appearance and debate that I saw. The other candidates should start doing the same. Well, with better jokes of course. And they shouldn’t be afraid to point the finger.
5) There is no excuse for the president’s attempt to grant amnesty to millions of illegal immigrants. Nor is there any excuse for the attempt to paint those who opposed it as backwards bigots. This was the last straw for many former Bush supporters. And it demonstrates the hubris of the national GOP establishment. Oppose amnesty? You’re not a real conservative. Oppose spending? Ditto. Oppose Wilsonianism? Don’t let the door hit you on the way out. And so on. That’s why nearly half of the Americans who voted for President Bush in 2004 now disapprove of his job performance. In order to win their votes, the GOP nominee needs to do the same. My suggestions would be a good start.
Regarding the reaction to yesterday’s story regarding the Tom Collamore “firing”, I would advise folks to be careful to read too much into the move.
Keep in mind that we are in the midst of the “Dog Days” of Summer when it comes to ’08 news. So some stories may generate more scrutiny or chatter than they other wise would.
The Collamore “firing” may be a perfect example. My understanding of what happened from different sources departs radically from accounts across the blogosphere.
According to what I have learned, Collamore was never intended to be the guy running the show once the actual campaign was up and running. You could describe his role as being the “Captain of Phase One”- that is, his job was to assemble Thompson’s team and point the ship in the intended direction for the next “Captain” to complete the actual voyage. Collamore is still with the Thompson campaign; he was not fired.
I think that the reaction to the reorganization may say more about the perceived threat from FDT than anything. When FDT announces folks, his campaign will be doing just fine. He will have more than enough money, organization, grassroots and institutional support.
Believing otherwise is wishful thinking…
