With the virtual orgy of schadenfreude yesterday regarding Thompson’s fundraising, I thought a little perspective might be in order.
Rudy raised approx $260,000 in his first month of fundraising. John McCain raised approx $1.1 million in his first month. That would bring Thompson in at 10 times Rudy’s totals and over 3 times McCain’s-and this was without utilizing direct mail or telephone fundraising.
Now Thompson should definitely be subject to criticism for his reluctance to get in to the race, roll up his sleeves, and do the hard work that all of the other candidates are (his refusal to enter debates alongside his Republican competitors is also puzzling considering his tough guy image.)
That all being said, $3 million in his first month without doing really anything substantial should be recognized as a harbinger of good things to come, not as a sign of weakness.
The level at which some are willing to trumpet these numbers as a sign of impending doom for Team Thompson is really emblematic of the level of anxiety that Thompson’s nascent campaign is causing in some circles.
July 31st, 2007 at 10:19 am
Kavon, you are to be commended for your lucidity — particularly as a proponent of the Mayor.
July 31st, 2007 at 10:34 am
Kavon–
–The flaw in your reasoning is that the other candidates’ first month was in January , February, or March when barely anyone was even paying attention to 2008.
At this point, June, July, August, many many more are starting to pay attention to 2008.
Comparing Romney, Rudy, and McCain’s fundraising in January, February, March of 2008 with Fred’s fundraising midway through the fundraising cycle, I think, is not a good analogy.
Plus, ever futher, Romney, Rudy, and McCain didn’t have the landslide hype machine in force in early 2008. Fred Thompson, even though he was hyped for months now, couldn’t outraise many of the other candidates in June alone.
Just my opinion.
July 31st, 2007 at 10:39 am
This is the first time I really disagree with you Kavon….. Jan vs June is a big diff…
July 31st, 2007 at 10:40 am
Iowa…just what I was saying, but more succinct.
July 31st, 2007 at 10:45 am
Kavon, are you switching your support to FDT or are you just prepping to do so incase he overtakes Rudy?
July 31st, 2007 at 10:51 am
The significance of the $3M number can be debated. But, if it is true that his fund raising numbers have dropped off since then, well . . . that’s bad news no matter how you look at it.
July 31st, 2007 at 10:57 am
Harbinger of good things to come? please.. his “testing the waters” phase was hyped for months before he finally took that step. And in June Thompson was at the height of his popularity with virtually no negative press.
He was also all over the place trying to raise money. There were fundraisers in Tennessee, Florida, Massachusetts…
This Fred Thompson phenomenon has been a complete media creation. The pundits needed something to talk about during the summer so this thing got blown out of proportion. But the man doesn’t stand a chance.
And now with the news that his wife is running the campaign and the senior staff is leaving you can bet that the money inflow has come to a halt. Thompson will be lucky if he makes it through the fall. An announcement only in mid September may be too late. While he tests the water, all the candidates are working.
July 31st, 2007 at 10:58 am
Guys,
Keep your eye on the ball. Hillary is going to raise over 100 million this year.
How is Fred going to compete with that?
July 31st, 2007 at 11:00 am
KT,
Of course not! That is kind of a ridiculous thing to ask isn’t it?
I’m about to publish an interview I had with Tom Tancredo. Does that mean I’m on the Tancredo bandwagon?
I’ll call things how I see them here… No matter how they may relate to my personal preference for the GOP nomination.
And I thought I have made it pretty clear that I believe that the day that Rudy Giuliani is sworn in as the 44th President of the United States will be a great day for this nation.
July 31st, 2007 at 11:00 am
Hillary won’t get more than 47% of the general election vote.
47-48% is her ceiling. She’s very beatable no matter how much she raises.
July 31st, 2007 at 11:02 am
In the GOP if a candidate is favored by the South, they become the nominee.
If FDT remains the favorite of Southern voters then he wins the nomination. The Southern delegates are just too numerous.
July 31st, 2007 at 11:06 am
IN and of itself it’s not a horrible number; however, it certainly is not a number that lives up to the hype. INtuitively it’s hard to believe that Thompson has anyhwere near the fundraising skills that Romney or Giuliani does.
July 31st, 2007 at 11:10 am
I foresee a possible split of delegates, 1/3 to Thompson (South), 1/3 to Rudy (NE and California), and 1/3 to Romney (Midwest, Mountain West, everything else).
I hereby GUARANTEE that Rudy and Romney will both be promising Thompson the Vice President slot in exchange for Thompson’s southern delegates.
Bank it.
July 31st, 2007 at 11:13 am
jds,
Hillary already beats all of our major candidates in most major polls.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html
The GOP is in very serious trouble.
July 31st, 2007 at 11:15 am
TM…
As I said, Hillary’s negatives won’t allow her to get more than 48% of the general election vote. She’s anywhere between 45% and 48%, and the entire country has known her for 15 years now. I don’t think she’s moving up above 45-48%. She’s stuck there. It’s her ceiling.
Just my opinion.
July 31st, 2007 at 11:17 am
TM…
Plus, not to be too cliche’, but the last Democrat to win the general election that was not from the South was John F. Kennedy. Hillary is no JFK.
July 31st, 2007 at 11:17 am
That’s 50 years since a non-southern democrat was elected President.
July 31st, 2007 at 11:22 am
Breaking…
Rudy takes the lead in IA, NH, and SC according to ARG. See the frontpage.
July 31st, 2007 at 11:25 am
It sounds like ARG is already broken.
July 31st, 2007 at 11:29 am
jds,
Sounds like a good opportunity to campaign on “Change.â€
The Dems will campaign on “Vote for Changeâ€. For the vast majority of swing voters, it will not be based on the issues, they will simply be voting for the first Female or African American President. This will result in bringing out many new voters, who otherwise may not have voted.
The GOP is going to have to do something very dramatic to survive the Democrat tidal wave that is already beginning to form.
July 31st, 2007 at 12:38 pm
TM:
Good points. And with a charismatic candidate like JFK-type, the Democrats would steamroll us. However, Hillary is a much hated figure who has been in Washington D.C. for 15 years. I don’t think she can play the “change” card more than any Republican could. Remember, Hillary has been a Washington Insider for 15 years, while Romney and Rudy are outside of Washington. Romney has the best shot because he’s pro-life.
July 31st, 2007 at 1:52 pm
jds, you should check this out:
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2007/07/31/crack_in_thompsons_southern_st.html
There is a crack in Thompson’s Southern Strategy.
July 31st, 2007 at 9:08 pm
What was Mitt’s first month fundraising total. That was ignored for some unknown reason. I seem to recall he raised $6.5m on the first day (or was that commitments only).