GOP Nomination 7/30
- Fred Thompson 25%
- Rudy Giuliani 24%
- John McCain 12%
- Mitt Romney 12%
- Sam Brownback 3%
- Mike Huckabee 2%
Daily tracking results are from survey interviews conducted over four days ending last night. Each update includes approximately 600-650 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
July 30th, 2007 at 9:59 am
Hmmm… I know we’re talking the margin of error here – but Brownback
jumped over Huck. Huck was at a steady 4% for a while in this day to day.
Btw- who is a likely republican primary voter?
July 30th, 2007 at 10:04 am
Brownback has 3%, but could be as low as 0% with the margin of error. Please respond Bryan and Billy. I dont think he has 0% support, as I know that he has dozens of followers.
July 30th, 2007 at 10:08 am
As a Mitt guy, can someone please tell me why he always seems to be at 11-14% on daily Rasmussen polls, but is always stuck at 7-10% on CNN or CBS or other polls. Is it the polling audience thats different.
What Im curious to see too is what his numbers will do if he wins Ames desisively as I expect he will. Will he see a bump of a few points elsewhere, or will his success remain in IA.
July 30th, 2007 at 10:10 am
Will Brownback, Huck, and others go away for good after Ames, and will Mitt earn there support as the more socially conservative candidate? I hope that happens.
July 30th, 2007 at 10:13 am
Phil:
I think a likely primary voter is one who has voted in the party primaries in the past on
presidentail as well as state elections.I think it is good that Rasmussen doesn’t include
Gingrich in their polls. He’s going to endorse Thompson and not run so his presense is largly
negligable.
July 30th, 2007 at 10:18 am
Husky, the margin of error only applies fully to a candidate with 50% support. So Brownback’s lower bound so to speak is above 0% (most likely, don’t know the exact number).
July 30th, 2007 at 10:43 am
Husky,
Take a look at the article in this morning’s Essential Reads titled “National GOP Contest: Why are ABC/Post & Rasmussen So Different?”
July 30th, 2007 at 11:01 am
This only poll that matters is the poll on the night of Aug.11th, Sen.Brownback has alot lower name recognition since he doesnt have the millions of dollars that Romney has. Sen.Brownback is running a great grassroots campaign in Iowa and that will show on Straw Poll night when he wins it.
Bryan
July 30th, 2007 at 12:09 pm
Thanks Aron for the info. This is interesting:
“The ABC/Post survey uses live interviewers. Rasmussen uses an automated recorded voice that asks respondents to enter their answers by pushing buttons on a touch tone keypad. This method is known as Interactive Voice Response (IVR). The response rates — and more importantly, the kinds of people that respond — are likely different, although neither pollster has released specific response rates for any of the results plotted above.”