Mike Allen over at The Politico has confirmed the rumors MSNBC heard last week: Fred Thompson raised just over $3 million in June for his “Testing the Waters” Committee.
I’ll let the article speak for itself:
“Fred’s Funds raise fear of flop…
But many Republicans have turned queasy as Thompson has ousted part of his original brain trust and repeatedly delayed his official announcement, which is now planned for shortly after Labor Day, in the first two weeks of September.
Some are already saying a prospective Thompson run is a flop. ?I just don?t see it anymore,? said a key Republican who had been extremely enthusiastic about a Thompson candidacy.
“That number is really underwhelming. There were indications it could be double that. They’ve been saying that people were waiting for Fred, and the money was going to pour in. He looks like he’s already losing momentum.”
The Shot, a great GOP blog out of South Carolina, points out this fact:
“This number is troubling. At this rate Thompson would only be able to raise $9 million per quarter. This figure would be about $3 million dollars less than Sen. John McCain?s dismal 2nd quarter figure.”
July 30th, 2007 at 1:39 pm
who’s more of a ghost?
a) Fred Thompson
b) Dick Cheney
July 30th, 2007 at 1:41 pm
Thompson, at least we know Cheney’s heart is still going
July 30th, 2007 at 1:46 pm
MattC,
Add this to the pile of “uninformed” and “blathering” rumors about Fred’s non-campaign, most of which have turned out to be 100% accurate.
Now regarding the Shot’s extrapolation of $3 million per month to $9 million per quarter, from a previous post of yours we have this…
July 30th, 2007 at 1:59 pm
I’m hearing from sources in the campaign that Thompson’s campaign raised about $1.5m in July – a 50% dropoff…Though they still have a couple days left..
July 30th, 2007 at 1:59 pm
I don’t know about the rest of you, but I think the ability of a ‘non-campaign’ to raise $3 large is pretty amazing… As a general rule, I think donors would prefer support declared candidates….
July 30th, 2007 at 2:00 pm
No one is coming directly off the set of a television show and into a presidential race.
July 30th, 2007 at 2:03 pm
OKcougar,
maybe you are right that donors would rather support declared candidates…but this guy doesn’t appear to be declaring
until October! Dude, absentee ballots and such for the primaries will be out for some states in December!
July 30th, 2007 at 2:04 pm
Thanks for showing up Fred.
July 30th, 2007 at 2:10 pm
Notice how Fredstate has yet to mention this on their website. Coincidence?
July 30th, 2007 at 2:24 pm
What happened!? He’s been raising money since April?!?!? And it is only 3 mill? WTH?
July 30th, 2007 at 2:35 pm
If I recall, Romney raised more than $6.5 million in one day during his “testing the waters” phase.
July 30th, 2007 at 2:36 pm
Not great, Not terrible….
Giuliani/Thompson 2008!
July 30th, 2007 at 2:36 pm
only 3M and he’s already 1st or 2nd nationally and leading in many southern states.
just wait until he actually declares.
I think we’ll see at least 50M Sept-Jan, that’ll be enough to get him to SC and FL and 2/5.
I knew a post like this would bring out all the Romney supporters
July 30th, 2007 at 2:41 pm
50 Million in Q4??? Dream on, Jim!
July 30th, 2007 at 2:43 pm
jim — Your post makes it sound like it’s the 3 million that pushed Fred to first and second. It’s not. It’s the media hype — people are projecting their own ideology onto Fred. The lack of money shows that the insiders and heavy donors aren’t really buying the hype or are already committed.
A FIFTY MILLION Q4? Are you INSANE? I think that post speaks for itself!
A post like this also brings out sane people.
July 30th, 2007 at 2:46 pm
any fred heads our there concerned that thompson’s money does more talking that thompson himself? I think the rest of us are.
July 30th, 2007 at 2:49 pm
TLG. Obviously you are just another Romney shill, running scared.
July 30th, 2007 at 2:51 pm
HA! This guy makes Ron Paul look viable.
July 30th, 2007 at 2:53 pm
Can anyone say Rudy vs. Romney race?
July 30th, 2007 at 3:02 pm
50 million by January, yea right! Romney has 50 million to spend so he could come up with that tomorrow if he needed but FDT needs money. His noncampaign/campaign is fast becoming a joke. Like Romney and Rudy or hate em, at least they are out there among voters doing what it takes to win. I dont see Fred doing much at all, and I think his high water mark has already passed. He will only go down from here.
July 30th, 2007 at 3:03 pm
LOL. TLG a romney supporter. that’s a good one.
July 30th, 2007 at 3:05 pm
Consider that they were telling others they were raising $10,000 per hour. Thats $240,000 per day and a million every 4+ days. $3 million for June is not $10,000 per hour, but when has a little honesty mattered to Fred’s campaign.
July 30th, 2007 at 3:07 pm
murphy — Hahaha. Yeah, all those Romneybots like me have come out in droves to bash the inevitable nomination of the 50 million Q4 man Mr. God Thompson. What could I possibly be thinking? Fraud will have this nomination wrapped up by Christmas — I remember now.
Thanks for the predictions, Madame Cleo. I’ll stick to sound analysis…
As someone else mentioned, I think the numbers speak for themselves. If we’re going to call McCain’s numbers abysmal, shouldn’t we call Fred’s worse numbers something even more horrific?
July 30th, 2007 at 3:07 pm
He raised $3 mill in one month. A QUARTER that they use to report fundraising is 3 months. So if you use that as an average, it would equal out to 9 or 10 million.
That amount is not bad for a campaign testing the waters.
Of course we’ll have all the Ron Paul monkeys on here trying to distort that.
July 30th, 2007 at 3:08 pm
The lobbying, the “I was never pro choice” crap they fed us and lied about, the overbearing wife, the campaign resignations, and now very disappointing money numbers. Any chance he just announces that he isnt running and makes up some excuse for why? Or do you think he will for sure run.
July 30th, 2007 at 3:10 pm
Weren’t people here projecting 10 million for Thompson in June?
July 30th, 2007 at 3:16 pm
Where’syourheadat — Ron Paul? Hardly anyone around here supports Ron Paul. It’s mostly Rudy and Romney.
The Ron Paul folks are too busy spamming YouTube videos to write analysis…
July 30th, 2007 at 3:16 pm
50M is not out of the question at all
He’ll have close to 5M for June and July. Lets say he has 7.5M by the end of August.
That gives him Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec and Jan to come up with 42.5M or a little over 8M a month.
I don’t think that should be so difficult.
Although, I must say that as a Rudy fan as well, I’m certainly not shedding any tears if Thompson’s bid never really materializes
July 30th, 2007 at 3:19 pm
Jim,
What do you say about the very possible notion that all of Thompson’s main money supporters have already given to the campaign? Most guaranteed donors will contribute sooner rather than later. I see Thompson’s fundraising numbers (and poll numbers) going nowhere but down from here.
50 Million by the end of the year? Try 10 million…if that.
jds
July 30th, 2007 at 3:20 pm
Fred Thompson 2008 = Wesley Clark 2004
Apt analogy? You decide.
July 30th, 2007 at 3:29 pm
jds,
I have very little doubt wesley clark would now be our president had he been nominated.
July 30th, 2007 at 3:34 pm
Eric,
I agree. But Wesley Clark couldn’t fundraise and couldn’t debate well.
I personally don’t agree with the notion that the ONLY reason Wesley Clark lost is because of the democrat base. Fundraising and debate performances were big reasons.
Perhaps the same thing for Thompson…
July 30th, 2007 at 3:44 pm
There’s no way Thompson will be able to raise any big money in Q4, ,
…Q4 is when the actual race begins, you have to start campaigning non-stop, AND you have to start
putting down big money for ad buys in October or you’ll have no chance come January/February.
That’s why, um, everyone else started to raise money in Q1. This guy can’t even figure out
what planet the race is taking place on, and you think he would make a good president?
July 30th, 2007 at 3:47 pm
Well, we’ll see. I think we’d all agree thoug that if his fundraising troubles continue and if he can’t get to 50M by Jan then he will have proven tha the was never really a serious candidate and won’t win the nomination. The proof will be in the pudding.
Are the donation limits by person or by candidate? IOW, can you donate $2300 to McCain and $2300 to Fred or $2300 max total. I think you could see some McCain, Rudy and Mitt people hedge their bets so to speak and jump on board with Fred.
Like I said though, if Fred falls on his face, I think that helps Rudy the most, so I won’t be all that upset.
July 30th, 2007 at 4:11 pm
can FT just go away already…i mean really, enough is enough, he has no chance in the general what so ever, notta
July 30th, 2007 at 4:22 pm
I really don’t think that most people who know anything about Fred Thompson could care if he announces or not. He is no where near a real republican and his Council on Foreign Relations membership should automatically disqualify him as President of these United States. Everyone who pays any attention to the CFR knows what their agenda is and it is not one the Constitution supports and no citizen of this country would either. As far as I am concerned there is only one person running for President who is prepared to return it to it’s former glory. And the REVOLUTION has begun.
July 30th, 2007 at 5:20 pm
$3 mil figure looks more and more legit
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2007/07/30/thompson_raised_3_million_in_j.html
WaPo- between $3.1 and $3.2 million
$2.9 million COH
will the press go wild in reporting thompson has less cash on hand than ron paul?
July 30th, 2007 at 6:01 pm
jim — “IF FRED FALLS ON HIS FACE”? You mean — you’re acknowledging that he might not raise fifty million dollars in Q4 and have the nomination wrapped up by Christmas!?
July 30th, 2007 at 6:13 pm
FDT is being careful not to make the same mistake as Clark. Clark announced too son and wasn’t prepared. FDT is making sure he is prepared, which I think is wise.
However, the problem is that the expectations game is out of control. His numbers in the polls are huge because people are HOPING that he is Reagan mk 2.
What this means is that once real numbers and real debates materialise, if he fails to thrash everyone in the money game, once he fails to convincingly win debates, people will lose support for him quickly.
I wonder if he’s staying out just to try and lower expectations before he officially enters? If so, the Fredheads aren’t helping his cause…
July 30th, 2007 at 6:52 pm
I never said he’ll raise 50M in Q4 alone. I said he’ll raise 50M by the time the voters go to the polls in FL and SC. That’s really 50M over 2.5 quarters. Not a Herculean task by any means.
I still think he’ll be ahead in the polls easily by Christmas if not earlier.
Mitt may still lead in IA and NH but by Christmas, regardless of his money situation, Fred will be ahead of him nationally, ahead of him in matchups against Hillary and Obama, and ahead of him in FL, SC, CA, IL, TX, NY, NJ, PA, OH, and every single southern state. And by much greater margins than Mitt will lead him by in IA and NH.
July 30th, 2007 at 6:54 pm
JayPe, he’s staying out because he knows that once he gets in, the media honeymoon is over, but it takes a few months for everyone to really “catch on” to what his record really is — which is decidedly mixed — and to the fact that he’s a liar. So if he jumps in in September, he’s hoping he can keep that image up until January, and by the time the base realizes what they’ve done, they’ll have already made him the nominee. He’s being deceitful right now — and it’s a damn good strategy, no? But the pressure’s being turned up…I’m pretty bearish on Fred.
July 30th, 2007 at 8:00 pm
Many of you fail to understand something. Fred has outraised everybody else’ first month except for Romney and Fred hasn’t had to loan his campaign money. Fred also is not spending nearly as much money as everyone else this summer yet he has gone from 4th to 1st in most major polls, and he is winning nearly every straw poll this summer without having to bus in supporters like Romney is having to do. If the candidate that raised the most won then would Romney be leading in at least one national poll?
Fred has said from the beginning this would be a different kind of campaign and by any measurement it has been vastly successful.
July 30th, 2007 at 8:16 pm
Hello, all-
Just to throw in my two cents-
I think that this has been a very interesting thread… one thought:
Per Comment #34 – “jim” – question on whether FEC limit is by person or by candidate- a very intelligent question-
The rules stipulate that you cannot give more than $2,300 to any particular candidate in each cycle (one cycle being primary, one being general). You are “maxed out” once you hit that cap – but only vis-a-vis that particular candidate.
However, there is NO restriction on how many candidates you can max out with a contribution. If one had the means, or the interest, or simply wanted to ensure having their phone calls returned, one could max out to every single candidate on both sides.
Hedging bets is common – I wouldn’t be surprised if there are some big-fish donors have maxed out to all major D’s if Dems, and all major R’s if GOP. In fact, there may be some who have maxed out to all major contenders on BOTH sides – they want their calls returned no matter who’s in charge.
July 30th, 2007 at 9:28 pm
Anyone defending Fred Thompson by now doesn’t have a clue about politics. The man has been running for six months even if not officially and they were expecting to bring in $5-10-M in June and in July is dropped off even more.
Fredheads are drinking koolaid if they think the Nixon mole has a chance at the nomination. As for Romney — all his ads and money have him ahead in NH and IA — what about the big states with all the delegates? Some of the people posting have the political savvy of gnat.
Get used to it — a lot of Republicans like Rudy. The not being satisfied is something being touted by the DC consultants headed by the WH guru of politics who lost us 2006. They don’t understand a lot of loyal Republicans are backing Rudy and are waiting for the day when the DC power brokers understand taht they have lost their clout!
July 30th, 2007 at 9:41 pm
Buckeyefan,
All the big states come after IA and NH. If you look back to previous elections, you can find several examples of “early momentum” in IA and NH turning national polls completely around. MattC did a good post on this a few weeks back which you might like reading called “Why National Polls Don’t Matter”.
July 30th, 2007 at 11:58 pm
[...] R4′08er MattC reported today, Fred Thompson’s fundraising numbers have thus far failed to impress. Fred’s [...]
July 31st, 2007 at 12:06 am
[...] $3 million. “Fred’s Funds raise fear of flop… [...]
July 31st, 2007 at 6:19 am
Rudy Giuliani raised only $258,660 in his campaign’s first month. Fred Thompson raised over then times that amount, and it is considered a flop. What’s wrong with this picture?
John McCain raised $1,130,351 in his campaign’s first month. Fred Thompson raised nearly three times that amount, and it is considered a flop. Get your anti-Fred spin right here at Race 4 2008, folks!
Mitt Romney loaned his campaign $850,000 from his personal fortune in his campaign’s first month, but that’s okay.
Am I the only one who sees a pattern here?
July 31st, 2007 at 9:23 pm
Responding to #2, “and going, and going and going…”
FYI, if you have not heard, he received a new battery for his pacemaker, so I had to make a joke about it.
Sorry, no disrepsect intended.
July 31st, 2007 at 9:27 pm
Does anyone know if it is legal to raise the monies before the declaration of one’s candidate? I mean, you do need to raise some seed money to launch your campaign, and this amount of 3 millions dollars is plenty. It is looking worse for him to play as a candidate when he is not one.
July 31st, 2007 at 9:33 pm
S.Roger, Mitt raised 6.5 millions dollars on his first tele-a-thon within a week of his declaration. Rudy and McCain each gained over a million. And besides, Rudy did not offically kicked off until middle of Feburary. He did very well in Feb and March, much more than 3 millions. McCain, well, he has been running since 2000, so I am not going to defend him howsoever.