This new USA Today/Gallup poll marks the third consecutive non-Rasmussen poll in which Rudy Giuliani maintains a double digit lead over his intraparty competition. The results of this latest poll by Gallup show virtually no movement in the race over the past two weeks as they mirror almost identically those from CNN’s survey, which was conducted June 22-24.
Results from the USA Today/Gallup poll conducted June 11-14 are in parentheses.
- Rudy Giuliani 30% (28%)
- Fred Thompson 20% (19%)
- John McCain 16% (18%)
- Mitt Romney 9% (7%)
- Newt Gingrich 6% (7%)
The survey of 394 Republicans and voters who “lean” Republican was conducted Friday through Sunday (July 6-8), and has a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points.
July 9th, 2007 at 2:52 pm
nothing new, although the minor decline in Gingrichs’s support shows
that people who were holding back for Newt may finally be choosing other
candidates. What does it mean in the long run? Probably not much but the question now is
who gets the Gingrich voters?
July 9th, 2007 at 3:13 pm
Romney. While Thompson may be able to pick up some of Gingrich’s Southern supporters, I suspect that most Gingrich fans, as well as Newt himself, will end up supporting Romney. People like Newt and his supporters are looking for a leader with a vision, as well as the plan and ability to get it done. Romney has already proven himself able to do that – no other Conservative candidate (not counting McCain or Rudy) has been able to prove themselves on as large of a scale.
July 9th, 2007 at 3:13 pm
ACT Blog,
Gingrich is not supporting Romney. I can assure you of that.
July 9th, 2007 at 3:33 pm
Really Tommy? How?
July 9th, 2007 at 3:44 pm
National Polls mean nothing right now.
July 9th, 2007 at 3:53 pm
murphy,
Because:
1. He has said if Thompson’s campaign doesn’t trip up, he won’t get in. It’s not like he said that he’s waiting to see if Romney will take off or not.
2. Big Gingrich supporters who he relies on in Georgia and nationally, such as D. Bossie, are in Thompson’s corner.
July 9th, 2007 at 4:01 pm
I think part of Gingrich’s logic on the Thompson statement is that Romney has not taken off nationally or produced major results in the South at this time. When the time comes for Gingrich to make an endorsement, I firmly believe that he is going to choose the more experienced, more qualified candidate. I think he is going to pick the one with the vision, and I think he is going to pick the candidate who can help to shape the GOP for the next 30 years. All of those apply to Romney, not Thompson.
As for Gingrich supporters being from the South, I think all Romney needs to get going in the South are 1) a visible, Iowa-scale campaign and 2) a couple big-name endorsements by Southerners, be they political or religious. Neither of which Romeny currently has. Gingrich could serve as one of those big endorsements.
July 9th, 2007 at 4:03 pm
That comment made me think he might be supporting Thompson. It would make sense. Ideologically, they seem pretty close. Or, maybe it is more an issue of strategy. He knows there is a conservative vacuum to fill in the race. And, if Thompson already fills it, he doesn’t see much room for another candidate. I wonder if Newt will endorse at all. I could see him wanting to serve as some sort of policy guru for whomever the republican candidate is.
July 9th, 2007 at 4:04 pm
ACT Blog,
Wait a couple of weeks and then you’ll see what I’m talking about.
July 9th, 2007 at 4:11 pm
I wonder if Gallup excludes GOP-leaning independents in states where they aren’t allowed to vote.
If not then the poll is nearly worthless.
July 9th, 2007 at 4:15 pm
econ grad,
Nope, they don’t.
July 9th, 2007 at 4:27 pm
Can’t wait for August 5th… debates really change the pace of elections.
July 9th, 2007 at 4:44 pm
If Gingrich does not run, it would be quite a surprise if he didn’t endorse Giuliani. In fact, I think Newt is running…to be Rudy’s VP.
The former House Speaker has, time and again, uniquely praised the former New York Mayor among the GOP candidates. In January, the two collaborated on this WSJ editorial below:
Getting Iraq to Work
New York City’s successes have lessons for Baghdad.
http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110009514
More recently, last month, Gingrich had this to say at the AEI:
“I commend to you Rudy Giuliani’s extraordinary achievements as Mayor. Today, because he introduced COMPSTAT, there is 75 percent less crime in New York City than in 1993. It is the safest large city in the United States; it is four times safer per thousand people than the city of Houston. And you can read Giuliani’s Leadership or Bratton’s Turnaround or Michael Lewis’ Moneyball and you get a pretty good idea of how metrics apply – metrics is at the heart of what I am describing: measuring accurately what you are worried about. Making sure you are focusing on what matters.
“Social issues really matter and I would not underestimate this. Social issues really matter, right to life really matters. There are a number of places, for example, where I disagree very deeply with Mayor Giuliani. But in a world where a nuclear weapon could eliminate an American city in seconds, he has a very strong case to make.
“Now whether or not he can extend that and can make it compelling enough to win the nomination, I don’t know, but he has certainly done better so far than people would have guessed.”
July 9th, 2007 at 4:48 pm
Considering the poll only asked 394 Republicans or people who “lean” Republican and has a margin error of +/- 5, take it for what it’s worth. Econ grad student, maybe you can enlighten us as to statistically if this poll is relevant or not. It just seems to me it’s a small sample.
July 9th, 2007 at 4:59 pm
Tommy (#6),
Heh. Gingrich said the exact same thing about Romney a while ago. He’s also had praise for Giuliani. Claiming to know with certainty who Newt is going to endorse, based on such scant circumstantial evidence, is a laugh.
July 9th, 2007 at 5:17 pm
Pisces the poll’s sample _size_ is sufficient to be statistically significant.
The real question is whether the sample is meaningful. If the sample includes people who aren’t allowed to vote it’s not valid.
A national primary poll should only include people who are legally allowed to vote in the primaries.
July 9th, 2007 at 5:20 pm
murphy,
I am not in a position to say anymore than I have already said, and will not speak for anyone else.
July 9th, 2007 at 6:41 pm
Thank you, econ grad student. I guessed that being a graduate student you probably had to take a stats course. It’s really helpful, when someone with your background, helps us interpret all these differing polls.
July 10th, 2007 at 8:32 am
Wow, Rudy/Gingrich ticket. That is a potent combination — at least, it would strengthen Rudy’s hold in South. It also would help the Republicans to trust more that Rudy would make the conservatism approaches.