So says Chuck Todd:
Going inside the numbers of (the most recent NBC/WSJ) poll, there’s even more bad news for Clinton and McCain. Among those who are “very closely” watching the presidential campaign (about a quarter of each primary sample), Obama actually leads Clinton, 38%-31%, with Edwards at 20%. Among those “very closely” following the GOP primary (again, a quarter of the sample), Giuliani’s lead shrinks to almost nothing, but the second place candidate is Thompson. In fact, among these voters, Giuliani nabs 30%, Thompson gets 28%, Romney gets 20% and — here’s the shocker — McCain is in single digits at 9%. Does this mean that the more voters learn about the candidates, the more Clinton and McCain see their support erode? Are all their poll numbers artificially high because of name I.D. from campaigns past?
What’s so interesting about these numbers is that, at least on the GOP side, the shape of the field strongly resembles the results of many recent online straw polls, such as those hosted by GOP Bloggers. Once considered by the punditocracy as the GOP’s frontrunner and establishment candidate, McCain’s campaign increasingly appears to be dead in the water, with Rudy and FDT prepared to fight it out for the nod.
On the Democratic side, numbers like these combined with tonight’s televised debate between the Democratic candidates convinces me more than ever that Hillary is in real trouble. Obama leads Ms. Rodham among Democrats most closely paying attention to the race, and he was more than able to project intelligence and seriousness from tonight’s podium. Hillary seemed more like an aging wonk spouting ClintonSpeak, in which she tried to have everything both ways, with a manner of delivery that was dispassionate and Dole-esque. If Gore stays out, it will be interesting to see whether Obama can close the deal with Democratic primary voters.
April 26th, 2007 at 9:50 pm
I’m kind of skeptical of it, although I’d be thrilled if this was the outcome going into the primaries. It’s just to early for me to get excited. There’s a long way to go, and everyone has strengths that will come out.
April 26th, 2007 at 9:51 pm
[...] post by DaveG and software by Elliott [...]
April 26th, 2007 at 11:45 pm
I don’t think we should be writing McCain’s political obituary just yet. Early polls are just that — early polls. All they show is a snapshot of a particular time, place, and data.
April 27th, 2007 at 9:09 am
Frist has now come out and said that Fred Thompson “will run and win”. Am I alone in thinking that Tom Frist is one of the most lame politicians in the Republican party?
April 27th, 2007 at 9:53 am
KT,“Am I alone in thinking that Tom Frist is one of the most lame politicians in the Republican party?”
Pretty much. Frist was a great Senator. Don’t denigrate his service there. Unfortunately he was also a poor Senate Leader. Not entirely his fault, of course. Leader Senators is like herding cats in many ways. But he still failed in many ways in that assignment.
Being a successful legislator does not mean a person will become a successful executive. Beyond a little overlap, they are two different skill sets. Which is why Americans usually perfer people with some proven executive experience for President over the pure legislator.