USA Today / Gallup Poll just released an hour ago:
On the Republican side, former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson shook up the field with his announcement that he would consider getting into the presidential race. Thompson is familiar as the actor who plays District Attorney Arthur Branch on NBC’s Law and Order.
Chosen by 12% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters, Thompson is third in the Republican field. He trails former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, at 31%, and Arizona Sen. John McCain, at 22%. Former House speaker Newt Gingrich is at 8%.
Thompson’s support seems to come largely from voters who had supported Giuliani. In the USA TODAY poll taken March 2-4, Giuliani’s standing had been 13 percentage points higher, at 44%. McCain’s support had been 2 points lower then.
Backing for former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, widely considered a leading contender, has dropped. He was chosen by 3%, the same as Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback. Romney’s support in early March had been 8%.
This certainly is not good for Romney. My analysis of Thompson getting into the race is that he hurts Romney the most, and would probably keep Newt out of the race. I don’t think he hurts Brownback, because Brownback’s base is very loyal to him and has been paying attention to him for a number of years. The key for the Brownback camp is expanding his support, which Spartanburg and CPAC showed they are capable of doing.
Update: Redstate Blogger Leon Wolf explains the significance of Brownback tying Romney.
March 26th, 2007 at 6:33 pm
Even it it’s an outlier, it’s really hard for the Romney camp to defend a 3% rating after everything they have done and all the publicity’s he’s gotten as one of the big 3. Try “big” 3%.
March 26th, 2007 at 6:34 pm
Looking at all the polls with Thompson in them, it seems he is taking more points from Rudy than Romney, but the proportional effect on Romney may be greater.
March 26th, 2007 at 6:36 pm
Welcome to the site, Billy, but I have to disagree that Senator Fred Thompson or any other Republican is going to deter Speaker Gingrich from running for president in 2008. At the end of the day, the Speaker is going to conclude that none of the Republican presidential candidates are debating the issues or offering solutions to the country’s problems in the breadth or depth that he has been or will.
My guess is that both Speaker Gingrich and Senator Thompson get in the race and that their entries will finalize the GOP field. As to who Gingrich and Thompson hurt, I think they take votes away across the spectrum of Republican cnadidates because conservatives have divided their loyalties thus far among all of the previously announced candidates due to the fact that no single candidate has galvanized conservative support. In that sense, proportionally they are likely to hurt those with the most to lose, the candidates leading the current polls (Giuliani, McCain, and Romney), though in a practical sense Gingrich and Fred Thompson may make the rationale for the second-tier GOP candidates moot and thus fatally impact them.
March 26th, 2007 at 6:40 pm
There is simply no way Newt will run, unless he intends to drop out after the debates and before the primaries get very far along. He is way too smart politically and understand what his fav/unfav ratings would mean for the general election. He knows how those ratings will be compounded among the American public when they find out while he was prosecuting Clinton for Monica, he was having an extramarital affair. He would be the laughingstock and elect the Democrat in a landslide. And he knows this. As much as I love Newt.
March 26th, 2007 at 6:45 pm
David,
I agree. I think Thompson hurts Rudy, but Rudy will still have a solid base of support he can work with. I don’t think such a base exists with Romney.
March 26th, 2007 at 6:48 pm
David B, I think you vastly underestimate a couple of factors in the Gingrich candidacy – ego and a love of history and belief that it can be replicated.
The Speaker has said that if the other GOP candidates are not addressing the issues he feels are important then he will get in. Start with the fact that since nobody has thought longer, harder, or deeper about the issues than the Speaker that this is a standard none of the other candidates can meet.
In addition, as a professor of history there is a reason that Speaker Gingrich has been focusing of late on Lincoln’s speech at Cooper Union – because it turned an also-ran presidential candidate into the frontrunner and eventual winner. This American Solutions for Winning the Future program that the Speaker is going to unveil in late September may be his Cooper Union speech. He doesn’t mention it much publicly, but rest assured that the Speaker also remembers the reincarnation of Richard Nixon from 1960 through 1968. So while I might not disagree with your political analysis, everything I know about Speaker Gingrich tells me that he believes his medicore general polling numbers can be turned around.
Whether there is a candidacy of Speaker Gingrich, after all, is not going to be so much a matter of what we think he can do as much as it will be a matter of what he thinks he can do. We’ll see.
March 26th, 2007 at 7:35 pm
I have no inside info on this. But I would bet the farm that Newt runs.
Every single action he has taken (except for outright declaring) has been to set himself up to announce in the fall.
Whether it’s new books, TV appearances, Cooper Union forums (which is a wink-wink from Newt to the historically literate), going on evangelical radio to repent his sins publicly, to the fact that he is holding a major event on the anniversary of the unveiling of the Contract with America (which just happens to be Sept. 27th)… Everything he has done is in preparation for him to run.
You can take that to the bank IMHO.
March 26th, 2007 at 7:36 pm
As a Romney fan, I am a tiny bit concerned about this recent poll although I think that the national polls in general are all over the map. Look, Thompson is a TV personality and like Rudy and McCain (who himself is a TV personality on Meet the Depressed everyweek), they have more name recognition than Romney.
I think April and May will be good for Romney as
1. He will win the money race for the 1st quarter
2. He will do outstanding in the debates, where he has done very well in years past
3. “Mormon in the White House” by Hugh Hewitt (a great book!) will add to help his poll numbers.
4. His groundgame (which will be 2nd to nobody) will start to pay dividends.
March 26th, 2007 at 7:44 pm
Regarding Newt and F.Thompson, doesnt this election and its marathon length to it, with so many states voting on Feb 5th, make having a ground game and LOTS OF MONEY a must for someone to remain competitive? That said, why does Newt & Freddy T (to a lesser extent) think they can remain competitive come Jan-Feb 2008?
In the end, I feel that by October there will remain only the big 3 for the big dance. I feel that Romney can win over the SoCons by then, and will be solid on the GWOT, Iraq/Iran, taxes, spending, judges, and other issues that matter.
March 26th, 2007 at 8:19 pm
SunsFan In Dallas, nobody among the GOP presidential candidate crop is going to have the money for a comprehensive ground game in all of the states that will be voting in January and February – there are too many of them and so many of them are too large.
What it will take is the money to run television advertising in 20+ states at the same time during December 2007, January 2008, and February 2008 – which is going to obviously be very expensive and create the equivalent of a national primary during that small window of time – and obtain lots of earned (free) media coverage.
Fred Thompson and New Gingrich have the name recognition, ability to raise vast money quickly, and star power (for earned media coverage) to get into the race later and be competitive in these facets. In addition, to some degree I think Fred Thompson and Gingrich are banking on Karl Rove’s concern with this race – that citizens will tire of the current GOP field because they have started campaigning so early and hunger for new faces by this coming fall. After all, we are already seeing articles questioning whether McCain and Romney are sputtering.
March 26th, 2007 at 8:19 pm
Here is a theme for a post by one of this sites’s poll /stats guru.
What are the possibilities that y’all might see (though I am sure none of you want it) for an inconclusive primary season, and thus a brokered convention (and lots of fun in spring, and summer 08)?
March 26th, 2007 at 9:17 pm
Tano: Could happen.
March 26th, 2007 at 9:25 pm
I sure hope a brokered convention doesn’t occur. Those events have bad records of leading to party splits (temporary and permanent) and general acrimony.
March 26th, 2007 at 9:28 pm
Tano. . .I doubt a fractured convention will happen although it would be fun to watch. In fact, I doubt we’ll ever see a meaningful convention ever again. Party leaders don’t like surpises, and I just can’t believe they would ever let the primary race get to that point. I wish they would. . .I’m getting tired of watching CSPAN and Foxnews till 6am and then wondering why I just wasted a good night’s sleep watching a scripted event. As a political history major in college I wrote several papers on the history of political conventions, and as fascinating as they were to watch (let alone the excitement it must have been to participate in one), I’m afraid they have become just another part of history to read about in school books. My personal opinion is that this year will all be decided (in both parties) by the end of February.
March 26th, 2007 at 10:39 pm
Republius,
I totally agree with you analysis. I think the entry of Gingrich (possibly Thompson) is only a matter of time. At which point, if Romney isn’t polling in at least the high teens, I think his candidacy will be in serious trouble. Romney’s whole platform, thus far at least, is trying to convince everyone that he is the GENUINE conservative in the race. If Gingrich jumps in, he can no longer say that, not that he does now with any authority. But, if I were on the Romney staff, I would be doing everything I could to discredit a Gingrich run.
March 26th, 2007 at 10:43 pm
With regard to the poll, I have been a conservative evangelical christian my entire life, and I personally think Brownback comes across as somewhat of a zealot. Theres no way he makes it out of Iowa, which I think he knows, considering he never really campaigns any place else, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him place 3rd. The race between Brownback and Huckabee for the evangelical vote will be a really interesting side bar.
Persoanlly, I dont see Mitt gaining much ground with evangelicals. From the time they (most) were in sunday school, we’ve been taught that Mormonism is a cult. Now, I’m not advocating one way or another, I am just simply stating that will be a difficult stereo type for Mitt to shake in Iowa and South Carolina.
March 27th, 2007 at 12:06 am
Geoffway to take a principled position. That’s mighty big of you not to advocate one way or the other. Regardless, Mormons will probably continue to support other Evangelicals by huge, huge margins. For me, it’s the principles that make our nation stronger that matter most.
March 27th, 2007 at 12:07 am
Since we are exuberantly throwing polls around, Zogby also released a poll today that still shows Romney in 3rd place with 9%, trailing McCain by only 4%. Thompson does have a good showing in this poll and from what I know of him, I would prefer him, hands-down, to Giuliani or McCain and possibly even Romney.
March 27th, 2007 at 1:12 am
Anyone here ever hear of a thing called Separation of Church and State?
March 27th, 2007 at 3:33 am
A brokered convention is rarer than a Papal Conclave nowadays, though it would be exciting to experience on one side or another. Though when it comes down to it, neither side would want to look fractured coming into the election, thus looking like the weaker party. Plus, the sooner it’s decided, the sooner activists can start working and moderates can be swayed.
March 27th, 2007 at 3:49 am
“The telephone poll of 1,007 adults…”
Adults? Why? Rasmussen can find likely voters. You would think that a reputable outfit like Gallup could do better. I’m not a Romney guy (and he comes across as a little too slick and too pliable for me) but maybe if the poll were RV or LV he would do better. He’s probably no higher than 10 percent, give or take a few points, but I doubt he’s at 3.
March 27th, 2007 at 8:03 am
Surprise, surprise: Arthur Branch, uh I mean Fred Thompson is included in a national poll, and what happens? Romney is toast, falling to a level of support within the margin of error over zero%, and Rudy is still in fist place by 9% over John McCain, who until six weeks ago was still being hailed by the MSM as the “Frontrunner”, and leads the D.A. by 19%, and Newt by 23%!
March 27th, 2007 at 8:36 am
I think the polls can be easily discounted at this time because of Iraq. If no real progress is seen by July, then Congressional Republicans are going to be racing away from Bush faster than you can believe.
And so far, Guiliani and Romney, except for talking about leadership and their support of the surge have given no real indication of what they will do with Iraq.
It is the big question that by the primaries will be finishing its fifth year, and if the casualty count stays where it is we could be looking at 5,000 dead. My gut instinct tells me that when 5,000 gets flashed on the screen, unless the GOP candidates have some really good and different ideas, Democrats will be in the WH and in Congress.
March 27th, 2007 at 9:54 am
My impression all along is that Gingrich will not run and will end up supporting Rudy. He is an absolutely brilliant politician and he knows he could never possibly win a general election. Why would he waste so much time saying nice things about Rudy, and then run against him? Does not make sense to me.
March 27th, 2007 at 11:56 am
KT,
I agree with the Gingrich thing, until the Rudy part. A brilliant politician who cares about the party wouldn’t waste our time and energy. There are better ways to influence. the most recent Rassmussen poll stated 50% of the people won’t vote for him, of course perceptions change but you get the picture.