Believe it or not Romney will not be raising 40 Million in one quarter. First lets look at who is making the claim Romney will raise 40 Million:
1. P. Hynes (Works for McCain)
Make no mistake, John McCain is no frontrunner. He is the underdog. Mayor Rudy Giuliani is enjoying a tremendous and well-earned surge is popularity because of the courageous way he guided Americans through those terrible days in September of 2001. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has stumbled, but sources tell me he will have raised upwards of a whopping $40 million by March 31st. Several other worthy candidates are making attractive appeals to voters. And some potential candidates are still thinking about getting into the mix. The race is wide open.
2. Liz A. Mair ( A McCain supporter)
Email from a top source…
…”Romney’s going to show $40 million raised come March 31st.”
That’s quite a lot of money. The question is, can he translate all that money into real support by real live voters, as opposed to big money donors?
3. Eye on 08′s Soren Dayton (who is running around with the McCain camp in NH.)
Not good for the last week or so. A big FL donor jumps ship, perhaps to Rudy. (H/T: Kavon) My money is still on $35-$40m for Romney Q1.
4. The McCain camp itself:
“We’re going to pay a price for it because we got a late start,” McCain told reporters in New Hampshire. “We’re not going to meet the goals we had.” He later said he did not know whether Romney would outpace him, but his advisers did not downplay that possibility. They also did not rule out finishing first.
Now let’s look at the veracity of the claim:
So far, Mitt has had in the neighbor hood of 50 fundraisers in the 1Q. Subtract the 6.5 million from 40 million and you are left with 43.5 million dollars in 50 fundraisers. The math would average out to $670,000 per fundraiser. When the most that could be charged is $2300 per person you are left with an average attendance of 291 at each function each paying the full amount. Many of the fundraisers are $1000 a plate and a lot of them only had a a couple hundred people there. At a thousand a plate you would need 870 people thereevery time.
At the downtown Chicago Fundraiser the lady I know who attended estimated that there were 150 people in the crowd each paying $1000 to get in. That would alone would raise the remaining events averages to $685,000 per fundraiser, leaving Mitt having to have between 500-800 people at each fundraiser. In Saint George Utah Romney raised $200,000 in a fundraiser. That now ups things to Romney having to average $700,000 per event to hit the 40 million mark. I think you see where this is going.
A simple look at the math and those who make these claims would show to anyone with a common sense this is pure spin from the McCain camp to set Romney up for a fall. It is beyond me how otherwise smart people like Hynes, Dayton and Mair can all believe this 40 Million hype. Do they think before they type? Or are they all just on the same McCain email list? Hmmm….
March 26th, 2007 at 11:00 am
Well, part of the reason that this is occurring is that Team Romney has seeded many a story in the blogosphere and MSM regarding how much money they have raised. We all remember the story from a month ago (reported on Redstate and Hotline) that Camp Romney believed they were raising too much money in Q1 and were telling fundraisers that they needed to slow down.
So when you have Romney backers throwing out figures in the $15 million range, people just laugh out loud knowing that it pure spin in order for them to be able to trumpet their amazing results when the figures are announced.
Secondly, Hotline has been predicting Romney in the $25 million range for months now. Does anyone believe that Hotline has some anti-Romney agenda?
The truth for me lies somewhere in the middle between the excessively high figure of $40 million and the ludicrously low figure of $15 million. My best guess is:
1. Romney $25-27 million
2. McCain $23-25 Million
3. Rudy $20 million
March 26th, 2007 at 11:02 am
Jason — check that math.
March 26th, 2007 at 11:04 am
Murphy,
Thanks, Just saw that, doesn’t make a big difference though.
Kavon,
Actually it’s not pure spin, that’s a pretty close number. If Romney goes much higher it won’t be by much.
March 26th, 2007 at 11:13 am
Jason,
Out of curiosity, how do you think Hotline has come up with their figure?
March 26th, 2007 at 11:17 am
Which number? The 40 Million? It’s from the McCain people.
What is funny is that you complain of number spin than put your guy last and Romney the highest.
March 26th, 2007 at 11:31 am
Hotline’s prediction is approx $25 million. How do you think they arrived at that figure?
The prediction I listed is pretty much the conventional wisdom of everyone covering this race re: what place Rudy will come in. I have never seen a single writer-news organization-blogger-analyst put Rudy anywhere other than 3rd place besides your post from last week.
March 26th, 2007 at 11:37 am
There seems to be a trend, as we are approaching the March 31 deadline, of candidates attempting to lower expectations for their own fundraising and raise it for their opponents. That way the person who doesn’t make the large sums that they were supposed to, even though it’s still a lot of money, looks like a failure. If Mitt Romney could pull in $40M that would be truly impressive, but I’m with Jason in thinking that that’s not remotely possible for Romney or any candidate. I do think all of the big three will post impressive numbers, and it may be possible that Romney will pull out a slight edge. Whether he does or not, he will need much more than a slight edge in fundraising to overcome the huge name recognition advantage that Giuliani and McCain enjoy.
Recently from the McCain camp we’ve heard that they will not meet their fundraising goals because of a late start. Whether or not they reach the goal I don’t know. But I do know that they can’t claim a late start as an excuse if they don’t. Everyone knows that 1st Q fundraising report is the silent primary, and they’ve known with plenty of time exactly what they need to do. If they did get a late start then they should call it what it really is: lack of planning.
My prediction, and I don’t claim any special knowledge or sources to back it, is that each of the top 3 will get $27.5M plus or minus $3.5M (or I should say between 24 and 31 million). I know that’s a very broad range, I’m just playing it safe because it really could go any way.
And in fairness Jason, there is a lot of money raised through other means than the actual fundraising events such as in online donations through the official website and by personal fundraising of those who have fundraising ID numbers. Still your point that he’s not going to $40M holds true.
March 26th, 2007 at 11:51 am
I’ve been reading everything on Hotline about the GOP candidates . . . and they do have something aginst Romney. They really put the best spin on possible for McCain. So yes, Hotline does report the facts, but they bash Romney at every opportunity.
March 26th, 2007 at 1:51 pm
Romney bashing? Whats wrong with that? I see plenty of “covert” Giuliani bashing by Romney’s own team.
March 26th, 2007 at 3:52 pm
I would have to agree with Kavon (and I never agree with Kavon) but I think Romney will hold a slight advantage, and have about $25 million. Whats amazing to me is that he can raise $25 the 1st quarter where he was between 3%-11% nationally, and is not known by 50%-75% of the country. What is possible when he is known by all the country as Rudy and McCain are? He will go on to raise a fortune in 07 is my guess, and his grassroots, fundraising, and support will put him in the driver seat by the end of the year.
Can someone only give $2300 per year to their candidate? Or can you give $2300 per event? Can someone tell me? I HATE MCCAIN-FEINGOLD FIANANCE SYSTEM.
March 26th, 2007 at 4:47 pm
SunsFan In Dallas,
$2300 per year, per person.
March 26th, 2007 at 5:02 pm
And another $2300 per person for the general. You can contribute $4600 now and it will be split that way.
March 26th, 2007 at 5:17 pm
“I would have to agree with Kavon (and I never agree with Kavon)”
You mean NEVER? Come on SFID, we have to agree on something
…
March 26th, 2007 at 7:24 pm
Kavon, you have a great site here, that we can agree on.
March 26th, 2007 at 7:50 pm
What’s In Rudy’s War Chest?…
With the end of the month quickly approaching, many ‘08 observers will be paying keen attention fundraising performance as a key indicator for candidates’ potential success. From some of the commentary I’ve read (Jonathan Martin at …
March 26th, 2007 at 7:50 pm
Re: Rudy’s War Chest…
If any of you all hadn’t noticed, I broke the news on the PA RudyBlog last Friday about how the Mayor’s fundraiser in the Philadelphia suburbs performed well above expectations, bringing in more than $350k, and also the attendance of state …
March 26th, 2007 at 9:49 pm
Well thanks for that SFiD
March 28th, 2007 at 5:30 pm
[...] Others do not. I think that Romney will do well, even $40m. So does Hunter Baker. Jason Bonham insists it is less. However, Jonathan Martin notes that Romney’s national finance co-chairman thinks [...]
March 28th, 2007 at 6:31 pm
[...] Others do not. I think that Romney will do well, even $40m. So does Hunter Baker. Jason Bonham insists it is less. However, Jonathan Martin notes that Romney’s national finance co-chairman thinks [...]