By popular demand…
Zogby International GOP & Dem Primary Poll, conducted March 22nd-26th, 2007:
Republicans
- Rudy Giuliani 27%
- John McCain 13%
- Fred Thompson 9%
- Mitt Romney 9%
- Ron Paul 3%
- Tommy Thompson 1%
- Mike Huckabee 1%
- Duncan Hunter 1%
- Tom Tancredo 1%
Democrats
- Hillary Clinton 32%
- Barack Obama 22%
- John Edwards 13%
- Joe Biden 2%
- Bill Richardson 2%
- Dennis Kucinich 1%
McCain at 13% has got to be rock bottom for him… Doesn’t it?
March 26th, 2007 at 9:58 pm
That does seem awfully low for McCain, but I’d just point out that it seems like 35% of people are undecided in this poll. Normally, the number is closer to 20%, and even lower in the few polls with Fred Thompson included. So McCain’s percentage is probably closer to 15-16% re-weighted. But then again, Romney and Thompson’s is closer to 12. Either way, McCain’s performance in this poll, relative to Thompson and Romney, is just dysmal.
March 26th, 2007 at 10:22 pm
Zogby’s results are always taken with a grain of salt. How can these numbers be reconciled with the USA Today/Gallup where McCain gets 9% higher? I suspect that if his support really plummeted that much, it would show up on other polls. Gallup and Rasmussen both have his support increasing post STE bus tour.
March 26th, 2007 at 10:46 pm
Hey, my favorite is gaining on the others…Ron Paul!!
March 26th, 2007 at 10:57 pm
Wow!!!! Romney pulls ahead of Brownback. Gains 6 points in two hours!!! Brownback gets below 1%!!! What a surprise turn of events.
LJ,
How do you know that USA today poll is the one to believe?
March 26th, 2007 at 11:24 pm
Jason, Romney has been on message these last 2 hours so a 6 point hike would seem to make sense. Seriously though, we can look at all of them combined to get a sense of where the truth lies. And who really cares (except Rudy fans) about national polls when state polls are more important relating to the primaries.
As I said before, Mitt will have a great April and May. He will be great at the debates, and he will come in 1st or 2nd in the money race next month. “A Mormon in the White House” will continue to do well and people will get onboard.
March 26th, 2007 at 11:28 pm
Someone tell me how Mitt, who is polling at 2%-12% depending on the poll you believe, has managed to raise as much money as he has thus far. Save your “Graham had lots of money in the 90′s too” spin because post McCain/Feingold, raising money $5-$2300 at a time is no small feat. It requires believers in your cause, and LOTS OF THEM. How is that occurring while he is polling so low? I cant wait to see the numbers when he is in the 20′s nationally, and that will happen!
March 26th, 2007 at 11:37 pm
With all due respect to the Romney folks and our new Brownback guy, Billy Valentine, which, incidentally, is an awesome name, I don’t see how a race with Rudy, McCain, Thompson, and Newt has room for anyone else. You’ve got four guys with strong name recognition who will all be raking in the cash, and you’ve got someone for everyone in the field. No, none are AS tough on immigration as a Tancredo or AS concerned about abortion as Brownback, but all will be seen as far more electable. I do think that if it comes down to these four, Newt and McCain have lower ceilings than Rudy and Thompson. I think Republicans will eventually decide that they just can’t nominate a guy who has nearly half the country ruling out voting for him, as a recent poll showed about Newt, nor will GOPers in the long run support McCain when they have two choices they like better in Rudy and Thompson.
March 26th, 2007 at 11:57 pm
DaveG,
Wishful thinking that is all I am going to say. You seem t forget about polls in states like Nh and MI. You seem to forget about the campaign infrastructure and money raising.
It does follow your line of reasoning to only let Rockstars and the proverbial McCain in your top 4. Newt is sliding and Thompson is unvetted as is Giuliani. I realy think you need to think more about the “whole” puzzle not just the one piece that fits your picture.
With your line of reasoning I see Rudy as sliding, and Romney rising. Only one bad poll and every other poll has him rising. I don’t see how Rudy can pull out of the tail spin he finds himself in.
March 27th, 2007 at 1:09 am
Tailspin? LOL!
Not saying that as a Rudybot, that is just ridiculous.
If Thompson enters, it will end up a Rudy vs Thompson contest. If he does not, it will end up Rudy vs Romney.
When it comes to the ground game and primary states, let’s remember this year is entirely different with the Mega Tuesday.
March 27th, 2007 at 1:21 am
David,
Weren’t you the one who was saying that McCain’s campaign was as good as dead just last week? I think we all should watch the hyperbolic rhetoric on this site.
March 27th, 2007 at 1:42 am
I predicted it would be dead after Thompson enters. Still think it will.
To say Rudy is in a tailspin after dropping a few points (averaged) is rediculous. I am not surprised Thompson is taking votes from all the candidates.
March 27th, 2007 at 1:44 am
Sorry about typos… I write these things fast and hit Submit before reading. Probably should change that.
For the record, I don’t think McCain will be *immediately* dead after Thompson enters. But within a few months it will come to a point where he cannot continue.
March 27th, 2007 at 4:14 am
I agree with DaveG in failing to see how a GOP presidential race with Rudy Giuliani, Newt Gingrich, John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Fred Thompson leaves any remaining oxygen in the political atmosphere for other GOP candidates to live off of, especially given how many states are frontloading their caucuses, conventions, and primaries for choosing delegates to the national convention into January and early February – which creates a veritable national primary of a few weeks in which being able to advertise on television simultaneously all over the country during that time and the month prior will be the required ante.
March 27th, 2007 at 6:02 am
I don’t think Dave G had Romney in his prediction.
March 27th, 2007 at 11:59 am
In my opinion, this Thompson thing is utterly ridiculous. Also, USA Today is one of the most left-leaning rags of a newspaper in the country. Put it in line with People Magazine…pure sensationalist garbage.
March 27th, 2007 at 1:31 pm
KT: The USA Today poll is the GALLUP poll. The most respected poll in the nation. Historically very accurate.