Tuesday morning brings us Rasmussen’s GOP update:
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) leads Arizona Senator John McCain (R) by eighteen points in the race for the Republican Presidential nomination. Giuliani now attracts support from 33% of those likely to vote in a Republican Primary. That’s consistent with his level of support for three of the past four weeks, but down from a spike to 37% last week.
McCain slipped another point last week and is supported by just 15% of those surveyed. That is the lowest level of support measured so far for a man recently was presumed to be the frontrunner for the nomination. Thirteen percent (13%) now support former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R) while 10% prefer former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (R). No other Republican attracts more than 2% support at this time.
Among the 31% of Likely Primary voters who identify themselves as Very Conservative, Gingrich has a statistically insignificant lead over Giuliani. Romney is third among the Very Conservative while McCain is fourth.
Those who identify themselves as Somewhat Conservative prefer Giuliani over McCain by a 37% to 17% margin. Among political moderates in the GOP, 42% say they would vote for Giuliani, 20% for McCain, and 6% for Romney.
Giuliani is the only candidate in either party who more people would definitely vote for than against. He also currently leads all Democrats in General Election match-ups. This includes Senator Hillary Clinton, Senator Barack Obama, former Senator John Edwards, Governor Bill Richardson, and Senator Joe Biden.
McCain is essentially even with Clinton, Obama, and Edwards while leading Richardson and Biden.
Romney trails Clinton, Obama, and Edwards. Other GOP hopefuls also trail Democrats in General Election polling.
Another new Rasmussen poll released today shows McCain and Obama tied in a potential 2008 match-up.
March 20th, 2007 at 10:28 am
Definitely looks encouraging for Giuliani. If his support stabilizes around the current levels, or even a little lower, then he will be in great shape heading into the primaries.
However, at this point what I really want to see are polls including Fred Thompson. Thompson is the proverbial elephant in the room, and nobody will be able to make any predictions about his impact until we are actually able to quantify his support.
March 20th, 2007 at 10:42 am
I continue to be unable to see the light at the end of the tunnel for McCain. How in the world does he thread the needle if he’s only 5 points ahead of Romney at this stage?
March 20th, 2007 at 10:49 am
Palin, the Michigan poll included Fred Thompson. He was 2%.
March 20th, 2007 at 10:57 am
Can people please give me their handle on the firefighters issue with Giuliani? Is this really going to harm him, or is this just your typical liberal-left wing trade union BS??
a LITTLE CONCERNED, HERE.
March 20th, 2007 at 11:08 am
KT,
I saw yet another article on that topic yesterday. The problem is, many of the firefighters who are attacking Giuliani over this lost friends and family in the collapse of the towers. Some blame Rudy for giving the rescue efforts crummy radios, or they blame Rudy for halting body recovery once the Nova Scotia vault was recovered (both of which are subjective judgements).
But what you’ve got here is people who are very emotionally vested, and in many cases they’re attacking Rudy’s actions for the memory of loved ones. I don’t know whether it will harm him, but don’t expect it to go away. Many of these people are not politically motivated, though they’ll surely get plenty of press from the MSM.
March 20th, 2007 at 11:22 am
Thanks, Murphy… that puts me at ease a little bit. I know that there was also a problem with Governor Whitman at the time, regarding the problem with air quality and safety of the rescuers, etc.
March 20th, 2007 at 1:51 pm
Ok, gentlemen, just for some fun. Now before you start slinging knives at me, let me say I am only sharing the following link (article) because it really is kind of funny. I guess more, if you are a fan of a candidate other than Mitt Romney, and I realize it was probably written by some left-wingies, but….all in good fun:
http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2007/03/20/what_next_from_mitt/
March 20th, 2007 at 1:59 pm
Palin and Matt,
I just noted this in the Michigan poll thread too but Fred Thompson was not actually included in that poll but was actually volunteered by 2% of respondents despite not being in the listed options.
March 20th, 2007 at 2:04 pm
The Globe wrote a similar article the other week. A parody about Romney flipping on Mormonism. I’d find all this deeply offensive, if it wasn’t astonishingly unfunny. With such absymal writing, does anyone wonder why Boston Globe can only afford about 10 staffers? I’m honestly embarassed for them.
March 20th, 2007 at 2:06 pm
Until all the candidates have declared, there are debates and ads, and the field has engaged each other such that the public has more at their disposal than mere name recognition it is pretty silly to conclude that any person running is stronger or weaker than another. The March 31 Federal Election Commission fundraising figures will have more meaning than most of these pre-campaign polls.
March 20th, 2007 at 2:25 pm
How is Mitt continually bashed with this flip charge? The MSM or the Globe I understand, it’s part of their agenda, but people on this website should be smarter. There are 2 articles I came across today addressing changes in the Mcain and Brownback positions(more recent than ’94). The first was on Rush’s show this morning.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/20/us/politics/20immig.html?_r=1&ref=politics&oref=slogin
http://www.nysun.com/article/50803
March 20th, 2007 at 3:01 pm
From an article on TPM Cafe today:
“I believe that Mitt Romney’s position as a top contender for the presidency is an invention of the press, and will prove ethereal as soon as any votes are cast.”
March 20th, 2007 at 8:03 pm
Peter Q,
Wow, you found a blogger who doesn’t like Romney. Good job, 2 brownie points.
March 21st, 2007 at 4:18 am
I’m sorry, McCain is now 2 points ahead of Gingrich (who’s probably
not even running), and 5 points ahead of Romney (who has been
bashed for months)?!
I’m sorry but early days or not McCain aint going to be
the nominee.
March 21st, 2007 at 9:58 am
Fred Thompson would be great. He just won’t beat Hillary. Go Rudy.
March 21st, 2007 at 10:07 am
Rudy is our man. I know thats no surprise coming from me. The thing we have to start facing as republicans is, we are definitely in trouble as a nation. The enemies are clearly the negative, nasty, vindictive, selfish, scathing, intolerant, hipocritical, average-folk despising DEMOCRATS. They are making the world hate us by their constant, every hour bashing of the Bush Administration and its policies. It is no wonder NOTHING can get acheived in foriegn policy and countries are just jerking us around. We need a strong, decisive and TOUGH voice to beat the dems into smitherines in November, 2008 and RUDY IS THE GUY TO DO IT.