Finally, a polling outfit that understands that Al Gore is not running in the 2008 election! Rasmussen included him in this week’s poll, but made note of the fact that unless something changes, this will be the last time his name will be an option. So where will his share of the votes go? To increasing Hillary’s lead? To the other ultra-lib, Obama? To the flailing Edwards? To an insurgent second tier candidate? Only time will tell. My prediction is after this week’s results (last two weeks in parentheses):
Clinton – 28% (28) (34)
Obama – 24% (23) (18)
Edwards – 11% (13) (10)
Gore – 10% (8) (10)
All in all, a pretty steady week for the candidates. Hillary stopped her slide downward, Obama eased up on his rise, and Edwards continues to pull a distant third place finish. Of course, once a lion’s share of Gore’s votes go to Obama, he should be in first place in next week’s update.
Why do I think that, you ask? Well, Gore’s votes aren’t going to go to Hillary – not after the Clintons continue to try and portray themselves as centrist Democrats and Gore has found his niche as a looney leftist. Clinton fails miserably in nutroots polls and has virtually no support among the hard-left of the party, where Gore finds most of his. Edwards won’t benefit from many of the Gore voters, because these voters want, almost more than anything else, to win an election. If Edwards was polling higher, or if Obama wasn’t in the race, they might jump on his bandwagon. And no second-tier candidate can be that viable, either — although Wes Clark will most likely pick up some of Gore’s voters, given how much of a lefty-sweetheart he was in 2004. No other candidate in the race will break single digits next week. But the majority of the votes will go to Obama, who is the fresh, exciting, and very liberal face in this left-field lineup for 2008. Expect a major shift in the MSM reporting of the race once Obama begins polling above Hillary!.
February 19th, 2007 at 5:28 pm
I dont completely disagree with this analysis, but I think it goes a bit too far toward the Obama side. I think a fair chunk of Gore’s support might go to Hillary. There is, first of all, a generational thing. Slightly older voters, who knew Al Gore well from the eighties onward, and who were deeply upset at the events of 2000 – these people are essentially Clinton people as well. They saw Gore as part of the Clinton team, and a Gore presidency as an extension of the Clinton years. Without Gore in the race, they may well gravitate toward Hillary.
You may consider Gore a loony lefty, or you may just be doing the usual name-calling thing, but I think your thinking on this is a bit clouded. Global warming is hardly some loony lefty issue, and though it is appealing to the hard left, it also is appealing to the mainstream. In other words, I dont think that Gore’s work in this area attracts only hard lefties – many who support him because of his GW work could also be natural Clinton people.
As you point out, Gore supporters are very interested in winning (right the wrong of 2000, and all that…). So for now at least, that means moving to Hill, since she certainly seems to be the front runner.
February 19th, 2007 at 6:07 pm
[...] post by HeavyM and software by Elliott [...]
February 19th, 2007 at 8:24 pm
I disagree with your statement that Gore is a loony liberal. While he certainly is one when it comes to Global Warming(read: Global Whining), he is MUCH more of a moderate on social issues than “Billary”, Edwards, or Obama.
February 19th, 2007 at 8:25 pm
Also, I think all further mention of Hillary Clinton should be under the name Billary– it suits her well considering her husband is running for president just as much as she is.
February 19th, 2007 at 9:14 pm
TC,
I dont think so. If Hillary becomes president, I suspect that one of the real perks of the job for her, on a personal level, will be having Bill deal, on a daily basis, with the fact that SHE is prez, not him.
February 19th, 2007 at 11:13 pm
Tano,
Did you see the report that Harold Ickes, the Clinton’s closest confidant and adviser, is saying that Bill should fill Hillary’s vacant Senate seat if she were to be elected President? Pretty crazy.
February 20th, 2007 at 1:01 am
LJ,
I agree. I cant imagine why someone in Bill’s position would want to be a Senator, I cant imagine why Hillary would want him there, I cant imagine why anyone would think this is a good idea.
February 20th, 2007 at 10:05 am
Tano, I can see where you’re coming from, but Gore clearly draws a lot of his support from the fringe left of the party. This is evidenced, I believe, by his strong showing in things like the dKos straw polls when he is included, or other nutroots sites’ polls. Gore may pull some support from those looking to relive the Clinton years, but 1)why wouldn’t those people just be supporting Clinton?, and 2)he draws much more support from the liberal end of the party than he ever will from the centrist end.
My prediction is Obama will get a 5-6 point jump from Gore not being included, enough to put him in the lead. Clinton, Edwards, and Clark all may end up with 1 or 2 points from it as well.
February 26th, 2007 at 12:35 pm
[...] gained 9 points from last week’s poll: Rasmussen Reports, Democratic Primary, February 19-22, [...]
February 26th, 2007 at 2:02 pm
[...] gained 9 points from last week’s poll: Rasmussen Reports, Democratic Primary, February 19-22, [...]