…seem to love him least.
For many of Arizona’s Republicans, charitable views of Senator McCain do not start at home:
In a recent telephone poll by Arizona State University, 54 percent of the state’s Republican voters who were queried favored Mr. McCain in a presidential primary next February, a small enough majority to incite his critics and encourage some Republican rivals.
“Arizona is one place where we are very well organized,” said Kevin Madden, a spokesman for the presidential campaign of Mitt Romney, the Republican and former Massachusetts governor.
“We think we can go out there and make the case on pro-family issues, on fiscal issues and on strong borders,” Mr. Madden added.
Meanwhile, disgusted with Mr. McCain’s position on proposed changes to immigration laws (he advocates legalization that would not require illegal immigrants to leave the country), with what some see as wavering on the issue of gay marriage (he lent his name to a state ballot initiative to ban it but did not support a constitutional amendment), and with the campaign finance act that bears his name, some Arizona Republicans are making trouble for Mr. McCain.
They have elected local party leaders whom he opposes, criticized his policy positions and thrown early support to other potential primary candidates all in the hope of tripping up Mr. McCain on his own doorstep.
“They can make trouble for him,” said Bruce D. Merrill, an Arizona State University political scientist and polling expert. “It is too early in terms of voting to tell, but it certainly could potentially affect people’s decision to give him money.”
The senator’s supporters are quick to write off the detractors as a fringe of the raucous state party that will be flattened like pita bread once primary day arrives next year. As a practical matter, Mr. McCain’s supporters point out, Arizona’s large swaths of independent voters can vote in the Republican primary, which will be a boon to Mr. McCain even if he loses some votes within his own party.
“When I was a little kid, I was really into western movies,” said Matt Salmon, former chairman of the Arizona Republican Party, who resigned with the intention to work for Mr. McCain’s presidential campaign. “In one of those, the cavalry was outmanned by attacking Indians, so they put a bunch of branches on the backs of horses, who then kicked up a lot of dust to make it look like there were a lot more people than there were. These guys drag around a lot of branches and kick up a lot of dust.”
Outnumbered or not, Mr. McCain’s critics now hold leadership positions in Maricopa County, the state’s most Republican enclave and biggest media market, which includes Phoenix. Their passion about the immigration issue, their flirtations with other candidates and their persistent harping underscore the skepticism about Mr. McCain that already exists among many hard-line conservatives here and around the nation.
They have been angered by Mr. McCain’s opposition to tax cuts backed by the White House; by his immigration position, which places him on a collision course with other Republicans; by his moves to close a loophole on gun purchases; and by his vote for the fetal stem cell research bill.
It is implausible that the Senator would actually lose his home state next February. But in a contest where managing expectations are as important as snagging delegates, John Sidney McCain has got issues with those who are most well-acquainted with his politics.
The most damning quote in this New York Times piece comes from this woman:
“I could be persuaded to vote for someone else,” Kathleen Hall, 60, a Republican who supported Mr. Bush in 2000, said as she sipped coffee in a Scottsdale outdoor mall this week. “McCain is not my favorite candidate. He would just as easily tomorrow turn into a Democrat.”
February 17th, 2007 at 8:29 am
It’s not implausible, and I am going to look hard ot find the poll, but 60% of Arizona primary voters are LDS.
It will make a difference.
February 17th, 2007 at 12:25 pm
Uh, Jason, do you have a stat for that one? Or did you mean 6% (LDS percentage of Arizona population)?
February 17th, 2007 at 1:11 pm
I’m sure it’s more like 6% are LDS, not 60%.
Say what you want about McCain, he’s a sure thing to win Arizona in the general election, while Mitt and Rudy are not.
February 17th, 2007 at 2:10 pm
No, 60%. I heard from someone who sits on a RNC committee to attract the LDS vote. It’s an internal pole. I willtry and find out more. I have asked a couple of Arizonans who are active in politics and they said that could be right.
February 17th, 2007 at 2:10 pm
sorry, internal poll.
February 17th, 2007 at 2:12 pm
LDS population in Arizona is 6%, but these are people who vote in primaries.
February 17th, 2007 at 4:08 pm
Ok, it’s an internal non-public poll. Nothing I can give beyond that. I wouldn’t put too much stock in a poll that I can’t give a link for.
February 17th, 2007 at 6:11 pm
Well, there’s another way to see if that number is even plausible. If all the LDS folks were GOP, and they all voted in the primary, you could get that 60% number if the total number of votes in the Republican primary were 10% of the total state population.
But since not all LDS are GOP, and since they don’t all vote in the primary, and since non-LDS people DO vote in the primary, we might well call this poll BS if anything more than 5% (just guessing) of the Arizona population votes in the GOP primary.
February 17th, 2007 at 6:13 pm
Conservative activists in Arizona were unhappy with McCain in 2000 as well, and Bush actively campaigned in Arizona and received the endorsements of almost the entire political establishment there. McCain still won over 54% of the vote despite the fact that Arizona has a closed primary.
February 17th, 2007 at 6:50 pm
So, according to http://www.thegreenpapers.com/PCC/AZ-R.html this, 322k voted in the AZ 2000 GOP primary, or 6% of the state population, so I guess that 60% stat can’t be entirely ruled out
February 17th, 2007 at 7:26 pm
[...] Over at Race 4 2008 I write about how those who know John Sidney McCain best appear to love him least. [...]
February 17th, 2007 at 8:41 pm
Does anybody think that McCain will actually make it to the Arizona primary this time around?
February 17th, 2007 at 11:17 pm
Funny enough, because I was just talking to one of my grandmothers (who lives in Arizona) about the presidential race, and she’s extremely anti-McCain. She says a lot of other Republicans in her area (Mesa) feel the same way about McCain.
February 18th, 2007 at 1:50 am
There’s some irony here. Not only do the Big Three each have some disqualifying flaw, but vocal minorities of Republicans in their respective states don’t like them.
McCain has problems with the AZ GOP, Romney has alienated many in the MA GOP and the chairman of the NY GOP famously hates Rudy.