For whatever reason… ARG seems to like wasting money on polling weird states that won’t influence the primary process. All four of these states are currently slated to hold their primaries on the old Super Tuesday date in March. But, to satisfy your polling appetite, here you go!
GOP
Maine
Giuliani – 33%
McCain – 22%
Romney – 13%
Gingrich – 13%
All others – Less than 1%
Undecided – 18%
Connecticut
Giuliani – 32%
McCain – 21%
Romney – 14%
Gingrich – 11%
All others – Less than 2%
Undecided – 16%
Massachusetts
Romney – 38%
Giuliani – 22%
McCain – 20%
All others – Less than 2%
Undecided – 17%
Vermont
McCain – 30%
Giuliani – 29%
Gingrich – 9%
Romney – 7%
All others – Less than 1%
Undecided – 22%
All polls are of 600 likely primary voters and have a MoE of 4%.
Obviously, Giuliani remains the front runner. Romney is in first place in the first poll ever, although it is his home state of Massachusetts. Brownback, Huckabee, et al have yet to gain any traction whatsoever, and I have doubts they ever will. The big question is who will the Gingrich votes go to?
Democrat results below the fold…
Maine
Clinton – 41%
Obama – 17%
Edwards – 14%
All others – Less than 2%
Undecided – 20%
Connecticut
Clinton – 40%
Dodd – 14%
Obama – 10%
Edwards – 8%
All others – Less than 3%
Undecided – 19%
Massachusetts
Clinton – 35%
Obama – 24%
Edwards – 19%
All others – Less than 2%
Vermont
Clinton – 37%
Obama – 19%
Edwards – 14%
All others – Less than 3%
Clinton remains the front runner. The conventional wisdom for the Dem primaries will be tested big time in this election.
February 12th, 2007 at 9:32 pm
Wow, Romney’s gaining traction. Glad to see that; maybe people will stop giving him such a hard time for such (early) low poll numbers.
February 12th, 2007 at 9:35 pm
And I expect Gingrich voters to be fiscal conservatives, by and large. Romney will take most of those, with some of those votes possibly going to Giuliani.
February 12th, 2007 at 9:44 pm
Romney doing so well in Massachusetts is obviously a boon, and puts to lie the notion that the Massahcusetts GOP hates him. And it also suggests that he can be competitive, when well known, with the top Republican personalities. One doesn’t always lead in ones home state in primary polling. Vilsack is barely out of single digits in Iowa polling, and he’s, generally speaking, considered a more popular governor. I’d be interested to see how Huckabee performs in Arkansas. My guess is, closer to Vilsack/Iowa then Romney/Massachusetts.
February 12th, 2007 at 9:45 pm
“And I expect Gingrich voters to be fiscal conservatives, by and large. Romney will take most of those, with some of those votes possibly going to Giuliani.”
That’s Kind of a bold assumption isn’t Nusrat? Likely Newt’s votes (if he’s not still in the race, which is a possibility) will be split pretty much evenly between whoever is left. If anyone gets the majority, it will be the polling frontrunner.
February 12th, 2007 at 9:46 pm
Eh, it probably was a bold assumption.
However, McCain is hardly a fiscal conservative, so I can’t see the majority of Gingrich supporters really liking him.
February 12th, 2007 at 9:50 pm
Another interesting thing to note is, in Massachusetts, where Mitt is obviously quite well-known, and his alleged “hard right” turn (you know, the one that’ll prevent him from winning a general election?) has been so widely publicized everyday by the Boston Globe and Boston Herald, Mitt STILL gets excellent independent support. In fact, he gets a decent bit more independent support then Republican support (41-35). In fact, he gets more independent support, relative to Republican support, then either McCain or Giuliani. So there goes that theory.
February 12th, 2007 at 10:13 pm
Giuliani Notes: Latest ARG Polls for New England States…
ARG: GOP Presidential Preferences February 6, 2007
Republicans
ME
MA
VT
CT
Brownback
-
-
1%
2%
Gilmore
-
-
-
-
Giuliani
33%
22%
29%
32%
Gingrich
13%
2%
9%
11%
Hagel
1%
1%
1%
1%
Huckabee
-
-
-
1%
Hunter
-
-
-
-
McCain
22%
20%
30%
2…
February 12th, 2007 at 10:20 pm
I love that Chris Dodd is 26% behind in his home state.
February 12th, 2007 at 10:26 pm
Yeah, I got a kick out of that too, Nathan.
Kavon,
I think you are wrong in thinking that many of Gingrich’s supporters will go to McCain, or, for that matter, even Giuliani. I don’t think either of these two have that great of a chance of getting the Newters’ support.
February 13th, 2007 at 10:31 am
Don’t you think that Giuliani co-authoring that piece with Gingrich in the WSJ was an
indication that RG would get his endorsement eventually down the line?
February 13th, 2007 at 11:44 am
KT, not any more than Gingrich at one point saying he saw Romney as the conservative alternative to McCain and Giuliani, and Newt praising Romney on several other occasions, means that Mitt will get his endorsement eventually.
February 13th, 2007 at 12:48 pm
HeavyM, THAT would be very dissappointing for me.
February 13th, 2007 at 4:54 pm
I thought Gingrich was the way to go at one time until I decided he couldn’t win the election. I am leaning towards Romney now, that may give you an idea of how Gingrich voters will move. As to Gingrich voters moving to McCain, don’ty forget that Gingrich voters are excited about his ideas. McCain doesn’t have any exciting ideas. I don’t see many Gingrich voters moving to McCain.