His poll numbers are plummeting everywhere. Edwards was always the candidate of red state Democrats, and his performance in what we now call Blue America has always been abysmal. Much of this is due to Edwards’ status as the anti-Bill Clinton, with Edwards’ Middle American populism, opposition to trade, and agnosticism regarding spending running directly contrary to the 42nd president’s fiscally prudent, pro-market, yet socially liberal DLC brand. As such, it makes perfect sense that Edwards never played well in the blue states, at least half of which were red or purple prior to Bill Clinton. And the rationale that suggested an Edwards nomination was based on the fact that three of the first four Democratic contests of 2008 are to be held in Edwards-friendly territory: red Iowa, union-heavy Nevada, and neighboring South Carolina.
But now, Edwards is collapsing even among red state Democrats. David Wissing has the scoop here and here:
PRESIDENT – IOWA – DEM PRIMARY
Hillary 24%
John Edwards 24%
Barack Obama 18%
Tom Vilsack 9%
Joe Biden 4%PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY
Hillary 27%
Barack Obama 23%
John Edwards 13%
Bill Richardson 3%PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA – DEM PRIMARY
John Edwards 34%
Hillary 31%
Barack Obama 18%
Hillary and Edwards are now tied in Iowa, with Obama not far behind. And in Edwards’ home state of North Carolina, Hillary is statistically tied with the former senator, meaning that she’s probably even with Edwards or even in the lead in South Carolina. And as usual, Edwards is basically non-existent in the Granite State. Is this the end of Team Edwards?
It will be if Feb. 5th becomes Super Duper Tuesday. If the many big states that are planning to move their contests up to Feb. 5th actually go through with it, that will mean that Edwards will have to compete against Hillary and Obama in states like California, Illinois, New Jersey, and Florida. These are all states with lots of delegates, and none are particularly amenable to Edwards’ style of populism. Before, Edwards at least had the likely momentum from Iowa and South Carolina to propel him through Super Tuesday. But it’s beginning to look like Edwards ’08 is in its (heh) last throes. And Hillary just may be unstoppable.
February 10th, 2007 at 2:25 pm
[...] post by DaveG and software by Elliott [...]
February 10th, 2007 at 2:26 pm
Plus, with a good shot at total control the Dems are hungrier than ever for a win, so they may be taking a page from GOP history and getting behind the early frontrunner. But it is early and Hillary has only been seen in her own bright shining light. Just wait till the Dems start campaigning in earnest – they traditionally eat their own fairly quickly, so her numbers will start going down, and Edwards will probably rebound somewhat.
February 10th, 2007 at 2:29 pm
Obama could take Edwards’ place as insurgent. Stranger things have happened in Democratic primaries.
February 10th, 2007 at 3:32 pm
I suspect this is a reaction to Edwards’s quote that, “Yes, we’ll have to raise taxes”. I think the Democrats are smart enough to realize that making the campaign about raising taxes hurts their chances to win. I think they’d much rather make the campaign about Iraq then after they’re in power propose taxes to “balance the budget”.
February 10th, 2007 at 4:43 pm
Could it be the word got out about what a dunce he was on MTP last Sunday? I will say that the guy questioning him was more of a dunce but,
just saying.
February 10th, 2007 at 5:28 pm
Edward’s campaign was always facing somewhat long odds, but I hardly think he’s washed up at this point. Hillary is receiving a big bounce because she has (finally) repositioned herself on the Iraq to appease the base, which undercuts one of Edwards’s key lines of attack against Clinton. However, he would seem to be the most logical destination for Gore’s supporters once he is finally excluded from the primary preference polls (Obama will get a fair amount, but I seriously doubt any significant portion of Gore’s backers will gravitate to Hillary). He’ll still be in 3rd place, of course, but a much more respectable 3rd.