??????? Speaker Newt Gingrich tells Reuters news service today the same thing he has been telling everyone else for awhile, that he will wait until September to decide about entering the 2008 presidential race. Until then, Speaker Gingrich plans to work on creating a “generation of solutions” that are “very solution-oriented, very specific” and ostensibly a lot like the Contract With America from 1994.
It appears that in taking such an adamant wait-and-see approach, Republican voters will lose the benefit of Speaker Gingrich’s direct participation in the New Hampshire (on April 4) and South Carolina (on May 15) GOP presidential candidate debates this spring, though?clearly the media will be eager to obtain his post-event analysis of those forums (which will be his candidate response of sorts).
The Speaker also raises the possibility that the 2008 campaign will be dominated by the issue of the War in Iraq, if it continues to go badly, though he is prudently engaging in a broad and thorough analysis of the federal public policy concerns our nation will confront in the future.
So while Speaker Gingrich will be prepared substantively to campaign by September, the questions will be how he can compete financially and organizationally? My guess is that the Speaker believes a serious draft movement could raise substantial funds over the Internet (Governor Howard Dean style), especially if by fall there is still no bona fide Reagan conservative gaining significant traction; and organization is very likely to be a distant and secondary concern with the compressed?election calendar (as so many states move their caucuses and primaries into January and February of 2008) creating a two-and-a-half month national primary where the keys to victory are name recognition, being able to attract unpaid (free) media coverage, and having the resources to run television advertising across the country in a large number of states from December of 2007 until March of 2008.
January 31st, 2007 at 9:50 pm
I sort of missed the whole Republican Revolution as I was just 8 at the time, but Newt is an impressive figure. If someone with his experience, demeanor, intelligence, and conservatism were just coming to forefront of public life I’d say he’d be both “electable” and the prohibitive favorite for the Republican nomination. As it is, I think he’d be burnt to a crisp in the fire of a thousand suns. But boy would he be excellent at the bottom of the ticket (and any of the big 3 have the necessary qualities that Newt wouldn’t “outshine” them).
January 31st, 2007 at 10:04 pm
I don’t think there can be much doubt that the Speaker Gingrich positioning to be drafted later in the process is designed in large part to shield him from prolonged negative attacks on the weak spots in his history – his divorces, his management of the House as Speaker, his getting clobbered by President Clinton in the government shutdown face off, etc.
Having worked with the Speaker in Congress, I see no way he would be temperamentally suited to vice president. But he absolutely needs to be part of the debate, regardless of his electoral prospects, in order to insure the highest and most thorough level of debate on substantive issues.
January 31st, 2007 at 10:22 pm
I think Newt is similar to Howard Dean, he should be leading the Party, but not running as a candidate.
Newt has a good message, but he is not the best messenger. I believe that Newt is smart enough to realize this.
January 31st, 2007 at 10:57 pm
I take a slightly different tack than GOP Activist, though I share some concerns.
I think the biggest problem with the Speaker is that he probably cannot win a general election as our nominee. But he needs to be a candidate in order to shape the debate. Thus far, McCain and Romney are running status quo, inside the beltway campaigns where they play gotcha and alert the media as to opponents’ weaknesses and trot out endorsements and race to hire as many Bush campaign operatives as possible. We need better than that and a Gingrich candidacy would greatly elevate the debate. We also need a different direction, which a non-conventional campaign that Gingrich will certainly run (and Giuliani might run) would help with. The GOP needs to start over, and I see Gingrich as a candidate who will help drive the thinking in that direction.
I think Gingrich also realizes he probably cannot influence the debate unless he runs, which is why I think he will get in (that and the fact that I think a lot of conservatives will support his drafting into the race).
February 1st, 2007 at 8:09 am
I really hope Gingrich stays away from the race. As much as I’d like the “debate” to be elevated (Duncan Hunter can probably manage that), the thought of the Republican Party, in a fit of whimsy or nostalgia, throwing the nomination to Gingrich has me in cold sweats at night. I mean, are we ASKING to repeat 1964?
February 1st, 2007 at 10:12 am
Matt, I feel the same way, bro. The thought frightens me!
February 1st, 2007 at 11:32 am
Nobody wants Newt enough to draft him. We need a candidate for the future, not one from the past.
February 1st, 2007 at 12:25 pm
I fully expect Gingrich to stay in the race for the sake of elevating the debate until it reaches the point where he would hurt his favorite candidate. He’s a smart guy who wants to get his issues addressed, and he knows he may not be the best vehicle to carry them to the White House. So he’ll be elevating the debate until we get near voting time, then he’ll annoint his candidate of choice.
February 1st, 2007 at 4:51 pm
Interesting viewpoint about Newt entering later in 2007. I also heard another view, this person
said the later entry makes sense since all the other GOP candidates will be working against each other
and dragging down a few candidates. So if the race is still without a clear candidate, someone
at 35% or more, Newt might get in.
The same could be said for Condi Rice. If the polls still show her as a contender later in 2007, she might
enter. There are also rumors appearing in some DC newspapers that maybe John Negroponte will be
seen as a strong Secretary of State later and she will leave the department in his capable hands to run
later. I read in the Christian Science Monitor, in an piece by John Hughes, for example.
Right now, she is involved in creating strong foreign policy. The reporters often mention experience
as a KEY factor for running in 2008, and she has years of experience in various appointed posts.
Rather than being stuck in the Senate, she is on the ground now helping our president.
We shall see what happens in the coming months.