So says The Hotline:
On the heels of Romney’s trip to South Carolina, McCain’s campaign will announce the endorsements today of a majority of Republicans in the SC House of Representatives — 40 in all. This includes the South Carolina Speaker of the House and the Republican Majority Leader. The full list can be found after the jump. Finally: McCain today picks up the endorsement of the leader of the biggest anti-gun control group in Michigan, Chuck Perricone, also a former MI House Speaker.
These are great pick ups by McCain and will further increase his chances of winning in South Carolina. It seems like McCain has locked up virtually the entire SC Republican Party, with the exception of Sen. DeMint. Not bad.
January 31st, 2007 at 4:44 pm
Ha! You beat me to it by two mins!
January 31st, 2007 at 4:48 pm
Mark Sanford’s being interestingly quiet down there. Wonder what he’s up to.
If I had to guess right now, I’d say Rudy wins NH and McCain wins SC. Iowa is still a wild card.
January 31st, 2007 at 4:51 pm
I am not ready to call states for specific candidates based on endorsements, which I still maintain are vastly overrated in terms of ultimate campaign success. Senator McCain is doing well in the endorsement race, but there is no evidence his campaign is generating the interest and covcerage that it did in 2000. And if folks think that Mayor Giuliani and Speaker Gingrich are going to fail to contest states just because McCain and Romney have the bulk of insider endorsements in those places, then they have a big surprise coming; there is a reason Giuliani and Gingrich are not going after endorsements.
Let’s see what happens after candidates formally declare, set out campaign platforms, and debate.
If anything may end up being statistically dispositive other than polling numbers, it is going to be amounts of money raised. The first figures come out after the March 31 FEC reports are filed.
January 31st, 2007 at 4:54 pm
DaveG, I think your analysis is probably pretty close to right. In fact, I see a very plausible scenario where Romney wins Iowa, Rudy wins NH, and McCain wins SC — and then enter the new national primary on Feb 5 essentially tied with one another. It’ll be an interesting race!
January 31st, 2007 at 6:27 pm
HeavyM,
If someone put a gun to my head and made me bet on how I think it will play out, I would have it ending up that way too. Romney wins IA, Rudy wins NH, McCain wins SC, but the margins of victory so small that it’s up for grabs between whoever finishes first and second in NH (which I believe would be Rudy and McCain).
January 31st, 2007 at 6:34 pm
Kavon, I think you’re right – Romney’s biggest problem right now is how to finish second in New Hampshire with Rudy and McCain both in the race. It would take a huge win in Iowa or a huge implosion on the part of one of the other men’s campaigns in order to happen, I think. But if history serves correctly, one of the top two out of NH will be the nominee.
Now, of course, all of that is hugely subject to change in the face of this new national primary day. I guess that’s why the fastest way to lose your money is to hire a guy who makes political predictions!
January 31st, 2007 at 7:26 pm
I think Rudy’s best bet is to win either IA or NH. If he wins both, of course, he wins South Carolina.
But, given the win in at least 1 of the 1st 3 states, and respectable showings in the others, he’ll clean up in the big states like CA, NY, FL, PA, IL, NJ, OH etc… Rudy is leading comfortably in all of the big delegate and EV states. As long as he can make it through the early, small states and still be competitive and in the race, he’ll clean up in the bigger states and lock up the delegates needed.
At least, that’s what I think the plan is.
January 31st, 2007 at 7:35 pm
McCain will win neither Iowa nor New Hampshire and hence will be a wounded duck flying into South Carolina, where he won’t win either. He’ll be out of the race soon thereafter, a broken, defeated, incorrigible lunatic.
January 31st, 2007 at 8:26 pm
New Hampshire is probably the state that would seem most ideologically at home for Romney out of the big 3, but unfortunately the same can be said about Giuliani and McCain. After looking at the latest poll in New Hampshire, I’m convinced that without Newt in the race, a Romney win in Iowa will likely be enough to propel him to at least second in New Hampshire. I think it’d be generally agreed that if either McCain or Romney won both Iowa and New Hampshire, the race would be essentially over with their organizational strength in South Carolina sure to propel to the “sweep” as it were. I’m not sure about Giuliani, but both McCain and Romney are going so full bore after Iowa, I suspect it won’t be an issue.
January 31st, 2007 at 8:49 pm
Dave,
Great minds and all that.
HeavyM,
I think you are largely right. Although, I still think that New Hampshire is in the McCain column, even though Rudy is catching up.
I’ve been trying to game it out, but it seems obvious that after New Hampshire, someone will be forced to withdrawal; whoever comes in third place. I have an extremely hard time seeing McCain in 3rd there, so it has to be either Rudy or Romney. Given NH’s proximity to Massachusetts and Romney’s low ratings (not to mention, I don’t see Romney’s social conservatism playing well at all), it seems plausible that Romney will come last. It’s certainly possible, as Matt suggests, that a win in Iowa could propel Romney up to second in New Hampshire. But that win would probably have to be pretty big (certainly over 5%) and given how much effort McCain is putting in Iowa, that’s not all certain. Plus, it’s almost certain that one of the second tier candidates will catch fire (say, Brownback or Hagel) will garner significant support in the caucuses (someone has to represent the 33% of Republicans that are against the war). So essentially, Iowa’s still a complete wild card and the final vote tally will likely have a big impact on New Hampshire.
January 31st, 2007 at 10:09 pm
Romney will have the money to compete beyond New Hampshire even if he comes in third there.
Because New Hampshire Republicans tend toward the libertarian rather than the socially conservative, Rudy is tailormade for the primary there. In 2008, McCain won’t benefit from the huge independent/crossover vote that allowed him to win the state in 2000.
January 31st, 2007 at 10:12 pm
Seems to me that this whole discussion is like a “Back to the Future” sequel, with all due respect. Thinking ahead rather than backwards into history, the 2008 primary calendar will be so compressed that candidates will already be financially committed to running in large states with huge numbers of delegates at stake throughout January and February by the time the Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina votes come in. So I do not see those first three states knocking too many candidates out, especially in the top tier. Where candidates will first get knocked out is in failing to have the money to place enough ad buys across the country in December of 2007.
If a top tier candidate has the money, why should they drop out after Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina with Florida, California, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, and who knows which other states coming so quickly soon after? With your ads bought in all those other states you might as well wait to see their votes come in by early March (when we will know who the nominee is), even if you did not do well in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. In previous cycles you needed to do well in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina in order to continue receiving the financial support necessary to continue. In this cycle the calendar will require that you have the money by December of 2007 to compete in as many states as possible (and there will be a lot of them, many which are expensive to advertise in) throughout January and February; doing well in Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina will be good electorally and for free media, but the funds such success generates will arrive too late to do that much good in all of the other states that will have moved up right behind those first three.
I think the rush of states moving up into January and February changes the dynamics significantly. And the voters of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina are going to know by the time they vote which candidates have the name recognition and money to compete throughout the rest of January and February in all of the states that will be contested, which may influence their voting.
What are going to matter, as my guess, are name recognition and money and buzz (for free media) as of December of 2007. And I think evidence to support this theory is that two powerful and politically shrewd candidates, Gingrich and Giuliani, have calculated that such a dynamic will exist and allows them (as candidates with high name recognition who can generate buzz and funds quickly) to wait to announce and to refrain from chasing endorsements and hiring a myriad of ground forces.