With over 14,000 votes cast in the most recent GOPBloggers 2008 straw poll, Mitt Romney won by 4% (around 600 votes).
Now, Pajamas Media has put together another online straw poll for both Republicans and Democrats to vote in. With nearly 20,000 votes, the first round results are in. And the winner is: Mitt Romney. Here are the full results:
Romney – 26.2%
Giuliani – 25.8%
Gingrich 24.6%
Tancredo – 6.4%
McCain – 5.1%
Hagel – 4.1%
Hunter – 3.0%
Brownback – 2.1%
Huckabee – 1.4%
Gilmore – 0.4%
Pataki – 0.4%
Additionally, Pajamas Media is running the straw poll again, like GOPBloggers does, and with more than 2,200 votes tallied so far this time around, Romney is in the lead again – 36% to Giuliani’s 22%.
The question, of course, for any campaign – but especially for the Romney camp – is will winning these polls of the blogosphere ever translate into support in the “real” world? So far they have yet to. Is this a case of bloggers just being more well informed than the general public, meaning that when name recognition stops being a factor in polling that Romney’s numbers will jump? Are bloggers just out of step with the rest of America? Or is it the case that GOP primary voters are sheep, as has been discussed here before, and will just vote for whoever the perceived frontrunner is? I report, you decide.
January 30th, 2007 at 12:38 pm
Heh. They’re not sheep. They’re just of a different breed than the online community.
Over at Daily Kos, Hillary regularly finishes their straw polls with 5 percent or less. Does anyone really think that’s what’s going to happen in the primaries? Even in Iowa, a true “base” election, Hillary will at least come in around 15%. The difference is that the Kossites are not representative of the general Democratic population.
Similarly, I suspect Romney will climb a little, especially if it’s only Rudy, McCain, and Romney left in South Carolina and beyond. I think that 20-percent number the other day is a good example of what he might get in a 3-way race.
January 30th, 2007 at 12:50 pm
DaveG, I agree – I think the right side of the blogosphere is equally unrepresentative of the general population as well. McCain is to us what Hillary is to them, and you can see it in the around 5% numbers he gets in GOPBloggers and Pajama Media polls as well. In all reality, he will be around 20% or more, I’m assuming, in “real” votes.
I wonder why that is, though. Is it because we bloggers are ideologically unrepresentative of America as a whole, or the GOP primary voters as a whole? Or is it because we know so much more about the candidates than the rest of the voters? For example, if every GOP primary voter knew McCain’s record fully as we do, would his numbers drop to 5% like in blogger polls? Or does the populace just not care or have a different set of values and ideals for a candidate than we do?
January 30th, 2007 at 3:22 pm
it’s because we’re political junkies. most voters don’t pay that much attention. they’ll watch their local news, they’ll follow the msm, they’ll watch the soundbites, maybe a debate here and there.
and then they’ll say, “john mccain, i remember him from last time, and i always see him on tv. he was a pow in nam for 5 years, what a brave hero” just like in 2000 they said “george bush, that name sounds familiar, he’s the president’s son, he seems like a down to earth guy, he has tons of money and the media says he has it wrapped it up”
sites like kos and other bloggers on the left and right are the political equivalent of “moneyball” type baseball stat geeks or obsessive movie snobs that rave about the last king of scotland or letters from iwo jima when all of 5 people have seen either one.
January 30th, 2007 at 5:12 pm
That’s part of it, Jim, but I also think that — as political junkies — we as a group have a passionate dislike of McCain/ Feingold that doesn’t resonate with the public at large, which is probably the reason for the discrepancy with McCain’s support.
January 31st, 2007 at 10:36 am
Romney can’t win the general election.
January 31st, 2007 at 6:50 pm
If Romney can win in the most democratic state in the nation, why can’t he win a general election?
February 1st, 2007 at 2:48 pm
Because the Romney who won in Massachussettes in 2002 isn’t the Romney that’s running for President in 2008. The Romney who is running for President in 2008 had the third lowest approval ratings of any Governor in the US when he stepped aside.