In a bit of news that probably warrants the state-of-the-art animated siren that Matt Drudge uses to alert readers to especially pivotal occurrences, Time has commissioned a poll of the GOP field that answers one of the most hotly debated questions here at R4’08. In addition to a standard, multi-candidate horserace poll of Republicans running for president next year, this new poll also asks respondents for whom they would vote if the field were limited to only the Big 3: Rudy, McCain, and Romney. The results are startling.
First, the horserace poll (because delayed gratification is highly underrated):
John McCain 30
Rudy Giuliani 26
Newt Gingrich 14
Mitt Romney 5
Sam Brownback 3
George Pataki 2
Tom Tancredo 1
Chuck Hagel 1
Mike Huckabee 1
Jim Gilmore 1
Other (vol.) 1
Unsure 14
Won’t vote (vol.) 1
Little new under the sun there, though Rudy and McCain do seem to exchange their usual places. And now, the results when options are limited to the Big 3:
John McCain 43
Rudy Giuliani 40
Mitt Romney 8
Unsure 8
Won’t vote (vol.) 1
In a three-way race, Mitt Romney appears to gain virtually no traction, failing to break out of single-digits even when basically included as the generic protest vote in a race where the only other candidates are Rudy and McCain. The two frontrunners are statistically tied for the nod, with the number of disgruntled Republican voters who would sit the race out far fewer than the comments on many conservative blogs would have you believe. Ultimately, when given the choice between Rudy, McCain, and lots of other candidates, or between Rudy, McCain and only one other candidate, Republican primary voters are doing what they do best: going with the frontrunners, the heirs apparent, the guys who have a claim to the throne. This further reinforces my belief that Rudy and McCain are the co-frontrunners of the race and that those expecting 2008 to be an exception to the GOP rule of nominating an heir apparent are going to be proven very wrong, very soon.
January 25th, 2007 at 3:57 pm
[...] post by DaveG and software by Elliott [...]
January 25th, 2007 at 3:59 pm
But Dave!!! Haven’t you heard? Romney just picked up the endorsement of 5 of the 8 National Co-Chairs for the Regional Subcommittee of the Southern California Republican Dog Groomers Association of America!
First the dog groomers, then the White House baby!
January 25th, 2007 at 4:07 pm
On a serious note… I’d bet $5 bucks that if you excluded the Republican leaners and just included the Republicans that Rudy would be up by 4% instead of down by 4%.
January 25th, 2007 at 4:09 pm
I think that 1% that won’t vote is fairly encouraging. I spend a fair amount of time on FreeRepublic, and the sheer volume of people who insist they won’t vote if any of the big three are nominated has had me worried. It’s good to be reminded that FreeRepublic truly represents the outliers of Republican politics.
January 25th, 2007 at 4:10 pm
Dave,
I value your postings and I think you have some wonderful insight. However, you live and die
by meaning less polls taken 12 months out of Iowa! First, nobody, including the majority of the
GOP faithful has a clue to who’s running, for the most part. And Second, nobody could even tell
you what they stand for! Does anyone REALLY think that Mayor Giuliani will continue to poll so
high when the base is informed of his pro-choice, anti-gun, pro-gay rights platform? Do you REALLY
think that GOP primary voters are willing to over-look those things for the sake of nominating
“America’s Mayor”?!! Please!
And when it comes to Sen. McCain? He was against tax cuts before he was for them, he proposed
giving illegal aliens access to Social Security and Medicare benefits, he brokered a raw deal
on judges with the “Gang of 14″, and he continually feeds his own meglomania with comments like
“our troops are on the verge of defeat”, while turning around and endorsing more troops to the region!
My only point is this…those polls aren’t worth the paper they’re printed on! If and WHEN the base
gets ahold of Mayor Giuliani and Sen. McCain’s real positions, their poll numbers will have only
one place to go, south.
January 25th, 2007 at 4:11 pm
“On a serious note I’d bet $5 bucks that if you excluded the Republican leaners and just included the Republicans that Rudy would be up by 4% instead of down by 4%.”
I was just thinking about that actually. According to RCP, Rudy averages around 30 in the horserace polls, McCain around 24, and Romney around 7. So Rudy and Romney are down a couple points in this poll and McCain is up a couple points, which probably means too many indies were polled. So yes, it probably would be Rudy 43/McCain 40 instead of the other way around. I do find it interesting though that the two frontrunners are so close when you basically remove everyone else from the race, which suggests that a Rudy/McCain race could go on for awhile.
January 25th, 2007 at 4:12 pm
It’s going to take a lot of work for an underdog like Romney to overtake two massive powerhouses like Rudy and McCain, and this poll certainly shows it. However, if I had to bet money on a candidate that had the ability to pull off such a feat, my money would be all on Romney. The most telling point in this race will be the Ames strawpoll in August. If the numbers come out looking like this, you can probably kiss Romney goodbye at that point.
However, there’s still a lot of time between now and then, and when over three quarters of the country doesn’t even know who Romney is (I just asked my dad about him and his reply was, “Oh, isn’t he the Mormon guy?”) there’s quite a bit of room to grow. It is, though, an uphill battle to be sure. It’s not often a surge candidate has to do battle with not just one, but two star-power frontrunners.
January 25th, 2007 at 4:14 pm
So … your dad was right.
January 25th, 2007 at 4:15 pm
The Gang of 14 was a good thing for McCain to do. I don’t like McCain, but do you really think a Nuclear Option, like what Frist wanted, would have been good for the country?
January 25th, 2007 at 4:18 pm
I don’t know what you Rudy guys are so excited about. The poll clearly shows that Giuliani trails McCain by 4%. It sounds to me like it is all over but the shouting for the mayor.
January 25th, 2007 at 4:27 pm
Sounds like a simple factual statement, if you measure front-runner status exclusively by public polls.
I’m holding my breath until the public being polled can correctly associate first and last names amongst the Big 3, not to mention campaign platforms.
January 25th, 2007 at 4:28 pm
Geoff,
The simple fact of the matter is that the race is already basically narrowed down to three people, or possibly four if you include Newt.
McCain and Romney have aggressively built campaign organizations that basically push everyone else out of the race with the exception of a nat’l figure who has a claim to fame that can allow for a late start. Rudy has that claim because of his nat’l hero status. Newt may have it because of his status as savior of the GOP back in the ’90s, though I remain skeptical that his Draft Newt movement will take off due to Republicans’ desire to win in 2008 after losing Congress last year.
Hunter, Tank, Brownback…these guys are getting squeezed out by the Big 3. Winning IA is all about organization. But the money men and endorsements are being sucked up by the Big 3, leaving little hope for any of the others in IA. And since there are only three tix out of IA, and since NH is filled with libertarian-conservatives, and northeastern Republicans, and independents, and since the Big 3 would also be more amenable to those types than would Hunter or Tank…well, you get the idea. There’s a reason we’ve coined the term Big 3 here at this site. And there’s a
reason the MSM is catching on.
As far as Romney goes, I think the fact that Obama is catching on among Dems and Romney isn’t among GOPers says a lot about his chances. Hillary, Edwards, Gore, Kerry, McCain, Rudy, and Newt are the household names in the respective races for the nomination…they’re the ones who should win the name recognition polls. But Romney and Obama are both one-termers who have probably gotten a similar amount of national face time in recent months. Yes, Obama ends up on the cover of Newsweek more often, but Romney is featured on Fox News, and Romney ads are plastered all over the conservative online community. And yet Mitt is still in single-digits while Obama is leading the field in various states.
When it comes right down to it, Republicans nominate big state governors, Senate Majority Leaders, the guy who ran and lost before, and national heroes. They don’t run small state governors or dark horses. I don’t think this year will be any different. No one’s denying that both Rudy and McCain have position papers that many conservatives question. What the polls seem to suggest is that most Republicans really don’t care, and that those who do are inflated by the online world, which makes it seem like there are far more Freepers out there than there actually are.
January 25th, 2007 at 4:34 pm
Yes, but as Kavon has repeatedly said, the GOP only nominates front runners, and McCain has been the front runner for over a year now. This poll proves that. So Rudy and Romney don’t have a chance.
January 25th, 2007 at 4:53 pm
What’s a freeper?
January 25th, 2007 at 5:00 pm
LOL. Check out freerepublic.com to find out.
January 25th, 2007 at 5:15 pm
Damn. As a moderate…that place scares the bejeebus out of me.
January 25th, 2007 at 5:32 pm
Surprise, Surprise. One of the absolute bedrocks of the MSM and the “Conventional Wisdom” commissions a poll, and the results show . . . exactly what the MSM and the “Conventional Wisdom” have been saying, except that Rudy polls very much better than those two “Pillars of Wisdom” have been allowing him. Remember the adage: “No single poll is worth a damn, including this one!”
January 25th, 2007 at 5:35 pm
Nusrat, you and me both. I’ve been banned there several times, generally by using logic and reason to refute Known Facts about controversial cultural issues. Not a libertarian-friendly place.
January 25th, 2007 at 5:39 pm
Freerepublic is entirely too conservative. I only go there to defend Romney (and with some success I think).
January 25th, 2007 at 5:53 pm
Well, yeah, I’m a libertarian (but a moderate one, so i call myself a moderate). Pretty hostile…and I live in deepest, reddest Indiana anyway, so I’m around that hostility a lot. No need to see that hostility online
January 25th, 2007 at 5:56 pm
I did a search for Romney (my guy) to see what they say about him there…and in the same thread, he was called both a socialist and a fascist.
I guess there’s just no grey area any more. Where have all the subtleties gone?
January 25th, 2007 at 6:03 pm
Dave G. and his polls. Always with the polls. They don’t mean jack right now. If they help you feel good right now that’s fine, but they are bound to change. I wonder if he’ll still post them when the Mayor starts to slip.
January 25th, 2007 at 7:34 pm
“Yes, but as Kavon has repeatedly said, the GOP only nominates front runners, and McCain has been the front runner for over a year now. This poll proves that. So Rudy and Romney don’t have a chance.”
4% in a horserace poll proves absolutely nothing. Neither McCain nor Rudy hold the “frontrunner” title yet, and given the lack of satisfaction with both Republicans could make 2008 the exception to the rule.
After all, until Election Day 2004, the winner of a Washington Redskins football game would determine the President of the United States.
January 25th, 2007 at 7:35 pm
“Yes, but as Kavon has repeatedly said, the GOP only nominates front runners, and McCain has been the front runner for over a year now. This poll proves that. So Rudy and Romney don’t have a chance.”
4% in a single horserace poll proves absolutely nothing. Neither McCain nor Rudy hold the “frontrunner” title yet, and given the lack of satisfaction with both Republicans could make 2008 the exception to the rule.
After all, until Election Day 2004, the winner of a Washington Redskins football game would determine the President of the United States.
January 25th, 2007 at 7:54 pm
Pickett,
I was being facetious. Both McCain and Giuliani men here have been saying that since the polls show Romney still in single digits, he doens’t have a chance. Well, it makes as much sense to say that because of this poll McCain has the thing wrapped up as it is to say that Romney has no chance. There is still a year before Iowa. Anything and everything could happen.
Team Romney is making little, if any effort to reach the public at large. They have been concentrating on the insiders and the webizens. In that, they have been very successful. So I have to assume that they will be successful when they start targeting the general public.
We shall see.
January 25th, 2007 at 8:00 pm
It’s 26/1/07 not 26/1/08.
Take a deep breath boyz.
January 25th, 2007 at 8:08 pm
Mitt Romney’s a phony if he’s beating SAM BROWNBACK??? by only two points.
January 25th, 2007 at 8:56 pm
No, he’s an unknown if he’s beating another unknown by only two points.
January 29th, 2007 at 11:19 pm
Giuliani and Mccain are household names so of course they would be leading in the polls.
Romney has the entire year to get his name and platform out there, and he can only go up. Is
anyone in the country not already familiar with the “big 2″ already. How can their stock rise
any than. My guess is Romneys fundraising, endorsements, organization, and message lead to 1st
place by this fall in Iowa. Mccain will have all year to pass bad legislation, bash Bush, make
friends with the left, and go south in the polls.