I am not yet prepared to start a critical analysis of the specific components that cause me to worry about Republican prospects in 2008 and the foreseeable future referenced earlier today. But certainly the outgoing administration is a starting point, so I cannot allow the latest article from Brett Arends of the Boston Globe to go unheralded as a matter of timeliness.
Arends reports that the latest polling from New Hampshire based American Research Group (ARG) shows a precipitous drop in favorability for United States Senator and 2008 presidential candidate John McCain among independent voters in the Granite State, which holds the first presdiential primary, because of his support for the Bush administration’s War in Iraq.Sidestepping the not unimportant geopolitical policy debate of what should be done and why in Iraq, the simple fact of the matter is that this incursion is quickly becoming the equivalent for the Republican Party of what the Vietnam War was to President Lyndon Baines Johnson – a political death knell.
Among political analysts the latest parlor game is predicting by which short-term future date President Bush must remove American troops from harm’s way in Iraq before the political damage to the Republican Party in the 2008 elections becomes fatal. The ARG polling data provides additional evidence that the administration’s Iraq policy is driving the popularity of the Republican Party and its candidates through the floor.
The difficulty for the Republican Party and its 2008 candidates is that clearly it is honorable and efficacious to support a President in time of war. But given that the evidence is mounting that the American people do not support this war, a second political parlor game may quickly evolve as to by which short-term future date Republican political candidates will need to disavow and reproach the current administration to have viability in 2008? Note that to date only United States Senator Chuck Hagel among potential 2008 Republican presidential candidates has condemned the latest administration strategic effort of military surge; Gingrich, Giuliani, McCain, and Romney are for all intents and purposes supporting, at least for now, this latest administration decision in Iraq.
Readers will note the tendentious reference to the book by Judge Robert Bork that will serve as a heading for this series of articles analyzing the Republican electoral pitfalls in 2008. Among the fatal mistakes of President George W. Bush’s tenure, perhaps none was more costly than his public criticism of the conservative movement as a presidential candidate by deprecating the Bork critique of modern culture, inveighing against the Reagan mantra that government is the problem rather than the solution, and selfishly proffering a personal brand of “compassionate conservatism” that logicallyindicted the movement of Goldwater and Reagan as lacking the capacity to care for others. In an effort to differentiate himself from the Republican competition for President, George W. Bush was willing to threaten the basic moorings and pillars ofhis ownparty, which only weaken it among those in the middle who decide national elections.
At some point the health of the Republican Party must take priority over the interests of a given leader of such. George W. Bush failed toembrace thatconcept as a presidential candidate and increasingly looks unlikely to change his perspective in this respect as President. The next wave of potential Republican leaders will have to act accordingly.
January 18th, 2007 at 10:25 pm
I believe the key difference is that Giuliani has been added to the polling.
January 18th, 2007 at 10:32 pm
That’s right.
January 18th, 2007 at 10:40 pm
“Among political analysts the latest parlor game is predicting by which short-term future date President Bush must remove American troops from harm’s way in Iraq before the political damage to the Republican Party in the 2008 elections becomes fatal.”
Well, Maliki basically said that he’s ready to run the show as long as his men are sufficiently armed. Yes, that probably means they’re going to use those arms to beat up on the Sunnis for awhile. But unless we’re willing to either a) depose Iraq’s democratic government and replace it with something else, or b) send 50,000 troops in and stay there for five years for long-term reconstruction, a Shia-Sunni battle royale will be inevitable anyway. If getting out in a matter of months is the only option that doesn’t yield a GOP disaster in 2008, then giving Maliki the arms, training those authorized to use them, and getting out of Dodge seems to be the best course.
January 18th, 2007 at 10:56 pm
Among the fatal mistakes of President George W. Bush’s tenure, perhaps none was more costly than his …inveighing against the Reagan mantra that government is the problem rather than the solution, and selfishly proffering a personal brand of “compassionate conservatism†that logically indicted the movement of Goldwater and Reagan as lacking the capacity to care for others.
This may be the most concise formulation of an idea that I’ve hear before, but perhaps never phrased more effectively. I hope every GOP supporter spends some time meditating upon this point.
January 18th, 2007 at 10:57 pm
In response to Sean and Kavon, if the drop in popularity for McCain among independents was due to so simple a technicality as the inclusion of Giuliani as an alternative in comparison to previous polls, the article would not been written at all because there would be no foundational basis for the claim. Are you really arguing that the War in Iraq is not hurting the polling numbers of Republican candidates? The latest Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll shows that Americans oppose the new surge strategy in Iraq by a factor of 60% to 36%.
January 18th, 2007 at 11:05 pm
Not suggesting that at all. I am suggesting that a large — though not necessarily all — portion of the drop in McCain’s standing among independents is that another candidate has been polled who appeals to independents who wasn’t polled at the beginning of last year.
January 18th, 2007 at 11:08 pm
Republius,
It has to be some what of a factor though. When ARG did not include Rudy for the past year, McCain was over 40% with no other candidate within 30 pts. of him. As soon as Rudy was included, he dropped into the 20′s.
I don’t doubt his stance has hurt him. I’m just not sure it’s reflected in this polling.
January 18th, 2007 at 11:24 pm
Even given the Giuliani wrinkle, the larger point remains – the independent populus of New Hampshire (which is undoubtedly growing in size if national trends are applicable) who have heretofore been a McCain strength in a state that overwhelmingly supported him over other GOP hopefuls in 2000 are abandoning him in alarming numbers, regardless of where they are going. And let’s keep in mind that in New Hampshire it is easy for them to switch to a Democrat in their primary election process, so there are always going to be additional electoral alternatives – Giuliani is one of many. And the reason is the War in Iraq.
January 18th, 2007 at 11:26 pm
What we really need is more head-to-head polling, to see how various candidates have slipped compared to previously well-known Democrats.
January 18th, 2007 at 11:34 pm
Here’s some interesting tidbits from Zogby’s New Hampshire poll.